Intro what up and what's happening deepo Chona here Sports Med analytics bringing you the 10 biggest injuries of the NFL offseason lots to cover here so let's get it popping starting with number 10 Mark Andrews now cautious optimism is how we'd phrase the approach here off of late season ankle surgery pass catcher data favors a strong weak one return to near 100% the only yellow flag comes from short-term data that predicts an uptick in missed games due to minor injury during the early phase of his return number nine Deshawn Watson Watson fractured the socket of his shoulder underwent surgery after week 12 he's reportedly still not throwing every day but that's not really concerning the strategy here is likely load Management in order to progress his strength without risking overuse injury like tendinitis that would cause a setback average return timeline is about 6 months and post surgery outcomes are excellent with about 90% of football players players returning to pre-injury form without recurrence not totally clear what level a healthy Deshawn plays at anymore but data strongly suggest we should find out week one number eight Anthony Richardson Anthony Richardson Richardson is already back to throwing 50 to 60 yards after early season shoulder surgery even though it's his throwing shoulder limited data does suggest that his accuracy shouldn't really be affected we're not overly concerned about reports of soreness at this time that is very likely due to his strength Contin continuing to recover typically patients are cleared around 6 months for contact Sports so he should be very much ready to go by training camp the question of playing style and injury risk here is a good one running QBs who lower their shoulders as opposed to Sliding carry injury rates similar to running backs missing an average of about two games per season we think that sliding will be a point of emphasis for Richardson and that would bring his risk down much closer to average number seven Kyle Kyle Pitts pittz Pitts screams breakout potential now that we know he actually underwent surgery on two knee ligaments the prior off season these are massive injuries and data shows consistent production dips up to about 30% that first year back however Pitts is Young and he's highly athletic with 90th percentile combine metrics and seconde post injury data does favor a return to his pre-injury explosiveness add in the obvious upgrade in QB and we view pits as a steel at ADP 60 number six Kirk Kirk Cousins cousins cousins will be about 9 months post Achilles by Camp and he could realistically be playing unrestricted at age 36 coming off of this injury data would very strongly suggest agility and strength deficits QB data is pretty limited but we'd expect to see decreased mobility and tolerance of pressure now the Falcon strong o line may help neutralize some of that effect but we also suspect some throwing strength limitations especially on the Deep balls and the bullet passes now as a right-handed quarterback the right calf is heavily involved in power generation and this may reveal itself at times especially early in the season number Aaron Rodgers five Aaron roders Rogers will be an almost a full 12 months out by week one given that he throws right-handed but it's actually his left leg that was injured that is mechanically more favorable than the opposite case I.E Kirk Cousins r scrambling numbers have been on the decline since 2020 and we'd expect that Trend to continue question marks on the Jets o line in combination with Rogers likely decreasing tolerance for pressure do lead us to expect them to focus on the short quick passing game and we'd expect Rogers to have potential to excel there but to predict his 2024 his 2022 is worth noting as well he fractured his thumb week five and that would have shut many QBs down for surgery but he played through it and his passing numbers dipped probably because he couldn't grip the ball with full strength add in a weak 12 rib contusion that typically causes a two to three week dip for QBs and that may explain his 2022 drop off from back-to-back MVP to 26th in qbr so now two years later what does it all mean we'd say a potentially very strong showing from Rogers if he can stay upright number Joe Burrow four Joe burrow despite RIS surgery we're strongly expecting burrow back at about 100% Week 1 data on risk ligament surgery tells us about 90% of people are able to regain full strength and range of motion here add in that he'll probably be fully cleared before camp and there's real reason for optimism here despite a lengthy injury history in a short career so far we would not label Joe borrow as injury prone torn knee ligaments followed two years later by a calf strain and then this wrist injury doesn't point to a concerning pattern or an anatomic weak link so we're expecting a strong comeback here number three tank Dell Dell broke his ankle but he should be fully cleared well before Camp Begins the good news here is that wide receivers of his playing style don't typically see their efficiency numbers dip in most cases that trend is further strengthened with his young age and his explosive pre-injury athleticism the only real remaining question is injury risk going forward while the ankle isn't Al long-term concern short-term data does predict a slight uptick in the rate of missed games due to minor injuries in the early phase of his return similar to what we talked about with Mark Andrews TJ Hockenson number two TJ hackinson off of ACL and MCL surgery in late January Hinson definitely does have a shot to return week one but data suggests it's not the most likely outcome the average return timeline is 10 months but young players with strong athletic metrics do tend to push that up hackinson is aged 26 with 80th percentile athletic metrics so he does fit the accelerated mold now when you factor these variables in our data predicts a mid October return date for Hawk receiving production tends to dip about 15% the first year back with Progressive Improvement towards the end of the season tight ends also tend to see a small uptick in missed games due to minor injury during those first 6 weeks back at tight end 11 on fantasy pros the downside seems to be built into the price worth strong consideration here since he'll probably be a solid contributor by the last third of the Nick Chubb year and number one Nick chub probably the worst injury luck in the league a single multi- ligament knee injury can cost running backs 15 months out and 25% or more of their production and take years off of their careers chub now having two of these on one knee is unprecedented territory data predicts a production hit of about 20 to 25% but also rates him only about a 50% chance to even be ready for week one you have to also factor in here that most running backs would require a ramp up period in touches and that lasts an average of four games reinjury longevity both very applicable concerns data shows a 25% uptick in missed time due during the first year back from this injury pattern and we'd have a hard time banking on this knee to hold up to elite athletic demands from more than a couple of years with all those odds stacked against him it's kind of hard not to root for a big chub comeback and that's all we got for now stay tuned for more injury breakdowns and don't forget to hit like And subscribe if you're into that type of thing catch you next time [Music]