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[Music] hey this is mobile joshi from Los Angeles California I follow Indian foreign policy and defense with a special focus on Asia you can follow me on twitter at mobile joshi hey short narayan from Bangalore in India I am an international relations expert specializing in global security conflict resolution and international negotiation my focus areas include beach building and digital diplomacy you can find me on twitter at veggies diplomatic if the US Taliban deal really dead did the US President Trump actually plan to invite Taliban terrorists to Camp David the official is retreat of the President of the United States yes the Afghan government happy that the deal is now more or less canceled when the US government continue to send feelers to the Taliban what will the Taliban reaction to all this be more importantly should India be happy with the developments hello and welcome to episode 21 of India rising strategic affairs conversations with Mohan and Kishore a show in which we analyze the happenings from around the world and their impact on India this week US President Donald Trump announced through Twitter that peace talks with Taliban were off and that he was still looking about a troop drawdown from Afghanistan so what happened is that there was a car bomb explosion on September 5th that killed a US service member and 10 civilians near the US Embassy in Kabul as per some reports the American service member was a fourth one killed in the past two weeks in Afghanistan I mean two days later on September 7th US President Donald Trump tweeted that unbeknownst to almost everyone the major Taliban leaders and separately the President of Afghanistan who are going to secretly meet with me at Camp David on Sunday they were coming to the United States tonight unfortunately in order to build false leverage they admitted to an attack in Kabul that killed one of our great soldiers and 11 other people I immediately canceled the meeting and called off the peace negotiations end quote so now this caused the collapse of the Afghan deal that was been negotiated quietly in Doha Qatar between the u.s. and the Taliban on the Mondays thereafter president from further said that the talks with Taliban are dead as far as I am concerned they are dead we have hit the Taliban harder in the last four days then we have hit them over ten years so that's the way it is an end quote and as for the withdrawing of the 14,000 US troops which are currently stationed in Afghanistan he said that and I quote we like to get out but we'll get out at the right time end quote now Camp David which is usually reserved for high-profile heads of state is and here the Trump had invited Saliba and that too on the eve of the September 11th attacks the planning for which had originated inside Afghanistan now was deemed as inappropriate by many observers yeah I think Camp David announcement by Donald Trump Oh actually the the thing that irritated most people especially because of the fact that you mentioned that it was blind inside Afghanistan by Al Qaeda but with the active support of Taliban anyway so with regard to the peace deal remember that the US troops have been present in Afghanistan for almost 18 years and US President all Trump wanted the u.s. to withdraw from Afghanistan it was one of his major pull promises he needed an exact strategy where he wanted a structured withdrawal plus guarantee Adam Taliban not harbor terrorists like Al Qaeda who would attack the u.s. like they did on 9/11 the negotiations from the US side were led by Afghan American diplomat Salman Khalil Asaad who actually conducted nine rounds of discussions with the Taliban in Qatar with representatives from the Taliban who actually had managed to open up an office in in Doha in Qatar now as far as the deal was concerned once the deal was signed the US was to withdraw about 5,400 troops from five bases in Afghanistan within a hundred and thirty five days bringing down the total strength of the troops there from 14,000 to around about eight thousand six hundred during that timeframe Taliban pledged to not attack us service members during the withdrawal also in exchange for the u.s. drawdown the Taliban would promised to not allow any terror groups you have gone in under their control to plot operations against the United States or allies there were some promises on an intra of grand dialogue to be held within the to be held with the a million government in Oslo Norway for some sort of final political settlement so now the question was there that was it a good deal which was being negotiated between the two sides so now Trump during his election campaign in 2016 and even later on had promised to get out of Afghanistan by assert in general now there wasn't a certain date he had promised but with the impending reelection in next November 2020 he wanted to get the troops home before the voters go to the polls next November now zelma Khalil Asaad I mean has been accused of giving away way too many concessions to the Taliban without any firm guarantees in return Shushan sorry in like senior fellow at observer Research Foundation in his recent piece pointed out that like Khalil Asaad had embraced the view as far as back as 1996 when he advocated u.s. engagement with the Taliban regime not withstanding its atrocities and deep linkages with al Qaeda the veteran diplomat had even accepted the Taliban's false assertion that Osama bin Laden had left Afghanistan at face value in code now sama call this deal front-loaded in favor of taliban where they can get what they want in a US withdrawal and then proceeded to easily rena john their end of the deal the deal did have many other warring points like not requiring taliban to express regret for their past association with terrorist groups like al qaeda calling the democratically elected civilian government under current president I should have Ghani as a puppet government and not allowing them to participate in these failed negotiations they had also made some way guarantees to an intra of gun dialogue between the civilian government in themselves at a later stage like post the withdrawal when if they were in a dominant position they could dictate terms to the to the former the Taliban reportedly wanted the deal to be first announced in Doha while Trump would have instead liked to be announced in Camp David which is where past US presidents have announced major pay peace deals so once the deal was agreed upon in principle the gannets and President Ashraf Ghani was reported to have been shown a copy of the deal between the u.s. and the Taliban which he was given an hour to read over but shockingly wasn't allowed to even keep a copy of it for reasons unknown so to supply a third one inviting the Taliban to Camp David and the most vivid memory of Camp David asti yes the handshake of Palestinian yahar Assad with Israeli prime minister which kind of had some amount of peace in in the Middle East all those two three decades ago but then the other other shock that you mentioned was how President Ashraf Ghani was not allowed to keep a copy of the of the Taliban u.s. deal in any way now what has been the reaction to the to the collapse of the deal now ever since the details of the deal have been circulated on the media there has been growing opposition to it nine former US ambassador to Afghanistan in an open letter warned against withdrawal from Afghanistan under the terms of the slot deal former critics now friend of President Trump or Republican Senator Lindsey Graham warned Trump saying I quote mr. president if you don't have a counterterrorism force left behind even if you have got to deal with the Taliban which I doubt but you mind they don't have the capability or the will to protect the American homeland unquote on top of the reports emerged that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had refused to endorse the US negotiators al Michel in hogs draft in because of the absence of any guarantees the death of the US soldier would have been the proverbial final straw that broke the camel's back and gave President Trump the reason to cancel the deal now remember in 1975 in the then how to Vietnam the United States forces were hurriedly withdrawing with the last few helicopters flying out of Saigon before the NA North Vietnamese advanced on the city even though Taliban does no dust control large swaths of the country there was no immediate such danger there that was there was no impending collapse of the civilian ashraf ghani government that the deal with taliban had to be rushed through after all the afghan national army consists of about 200,000 troops was just not an insignificant fighting force yeah so now the coming to the implications of what happened over the past few days now it's obvious that like Trump has avoided a bad deal with the Taliban which was unlikely to bring peace to Afghanistan interestingly in 2013 Husain Haqqani Akane Pakistan's former ambassador to the United States from 2008 to 11 routing an op-ed and I quote unlike most states or political groups the Taliban aren't amiable to a a pragmatic deal they are a movement with an extreme ideology and will not compromise easily on their deeply held beliefs in code so Taliban now free of any compulsions from adhering to any sort of deal we'll look to up the ante even with even more deadlier attacks including attacks on US forces so the Taliban strategy will be to place greater pressure on the u.s. by attacking US forces before the deal was signed when Tory as they probably overplayed their hand now Mike Pompeo like even remark that Taliban had over reached with this deadly attack with this attack now both the US and Taliban for now are back to square one with this No Deal now things will probably heat up significantly in terms of violence between the two sides before there is some kind of cooldown for both sides to come to the table to talk again I mean this is more of a pause in the negotiations verses and outright cancellation of talks I mean us will resume contact after a while as a as everyone knows that they need to exit Afghanistan to end their longest war in modern times now since Trump has professed a desire to get out of Afghanistan there they could be very well the ones to blink first Taliban since 2001 has stated that they are fully prepared to wait it out no matter how long it takes I mean having time on their side is their biggest ally they know that us that the us resolve to stay in Afghanistan will break at some point in the near future I mean there have been some reports that that intercepted communications are from the Taliban High Command revealed that the message is being sent down to the foot soldiers that u.s. would leave in ally in a year's time as when the deal was signed now of shrub Ghani who has been completely sidelined in this series of events had insisted that this month's presidential election which was to be held on September 28th be held on time now he seeks a second term and wants to negotiate with the Taliban on settlement with them on the country's political future now as part of the intro of gun dialogue between the current government and Taliban like talks were reportedly going to be held on September 23rd which is curiously just five days before the September 28th elections now this close proximity of the dialogue would have compromised the election process to an extent because the upcoming elections would just be a temporary phase where well any new structures would have to be negotiated between the two sides before any kind of reconciliation in the future which might even include any changes to the Constitution or the political process of how both of them share power in the future also there have been whispers that the Taliban negotiating team in Doha is not in full sync with the Taliban leadership on the ground which could also possibly explain the reasoning the reasoning between increasing attacks on the US forces just before the days in when the final talks were to conclude the deal now this creates an additional headache that any deal even let's say diluted one in the future might not be adhered to by the Taliban on the ground in Afghanistan and crafting that will say that it has question on the Taliban but on the contrary it also raises questions on the u.s. walking out of its own negotiations as well after all the u.s. walked out of the jcpoa u.s. is now walking out of its own talks with the Taliban so questions will be raised as to the commitment shown by the US on any kind of negotiations that it wants to have with any party around the world anyway so we now have to look at what has been the reaction from around the world the UN Secretary General's Special Representative for Afghanistan Todd Ameche Yamamoto actually briefed the United Nations Security Council on the on the situation in Afghanistan and said that the direct talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban should resume as soon as possible Taliban surprisingly on its part has indicated that it would want to continue the peace talks with the United States Taliban statement was I quote committed to continuing negotiations till the end if a political settlement has chosen instead of war important now Russia which was having its own peace talks with the Taliban in parallel welcomed the Taliban suspend Russia's official statement was I quote we hope that the current pause will not undermine the long term efforts of the two sides and the substantial progress achieved at the torsion Doha on a peace settlement in Afghanistan unquote now Afghani President Ashraf Ghani has clarified that negotiations with the Taliban are impossible without ceasefire he further claimed that the Afghan government facilitated all conditions for peace but the Taliban miscalculated and that Afghanistan will not be cursed ashraf ghani now comes across as a man who stand was vindicated it was true that he was ready to hop on a plane on short notice with very few details to make something happen for his country now it is obvious that the Afghan presidential elections will now proceed as planned on September 28th mahalo you indicated and that I should have Ghani a clear front-runner in the polls right now yeah I think a lot of the candidates had suspended their campaigning because they were not there's a lot of uncertainty in Kabul regarding this peace deal and when it would be announced so many of the candidates has actually suspended their campaigning for the elections and since now Ganesh who should be the clear front-runner in the polls this big bust by the power of incumbency yeah agreed but also the other way to look at it happed ember who would be the last possible date by which elections could be held October onwards the tough winter month kick off and it would be impossible to physically conduct an election the length and breadth of Afghanistan so it was quite obvious that either it would happen in September or it would have to be postponed till early spring in 2020 and I believe they have already been delayed once right they were supposed to be held in spring or early summer if I'm not correct if I'm not wrong sorry that was the reaction of the different stakeholders but now let us look at it from an Indian angle what an India reaction being and how would India look at the entire development India will have to review its Afghanistan policy to examine how it can play a role in sync with the US interest demands for an Indian military role are likely to increase and must be arrested while keeping all other options open including improving its relationship with the Taliban so you sure here like here I think this wanted to add that I think Donald Trump made an off-the-cuff remark that India needs to be doing more which was taken by many as a comment that India should put boots on the ground but I think as you rightly say in many strategic observers agree that we should be not putting any troops on the ground it will just be counterproductive and this give an easy target for the pakistan-based terrorist groups to attack Indian assets on the ground height right I mean Donald Trump known to make such off-the-cuff remarks remember how he had made a back of the hand remark telling why or India building all the libraries in Afghanistan when nobody I mean Donald Trump's statement should not be taken at face value with all I would say so when it comes to improving its relationship with the Taliban in remember that India has never had an official contact with the Taliban and India does not have a very good very good memories with the Taliban especially with the Kandahar episode and subsequent release of jailed and all that so yeah the question now is how can India engage more with other significant powers like Russia China and Iran on this vexed issue of reconciliation in Afghanistan India must use action leverage of good relations with not only these big nations but also with the Central Asian CIS or former Soviet republics all of whom share a land border with Afghanistan all these states have a common interest in bringing peace across the region which has been elusive for decades the downside from any flare-up in Afghanistan will have security implications for all its neighbors where there can be a spillover impact across their borders into the neighboring state yeah I think in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan the two neighboring states there have been incidents where the terrorist groups have been operating across their borders and creating security headaches for these countries especially that these two neighbors to the north exactly exactly and also historically Taliban has been the weakest in the northern northern parts of Afghanistan so increase the headache for the Afghan national government so I told earlier India does not recognize Taliban officially since they grabbed power in the mid-1990s but since they will be a part of any future ruling dispensation in Kabul Reid governing in a joint capacity with the current government or a hostile takeover of the country it makes sense to open the dialogue with them there is not much to be lost in any way of an informal dialogue or whatever you want to refer to it by name after all if big powers like us % I have no hesitation talking to them then there are brownie points to be earned by standing on your principle of having then yeah of having no no no brownie points sorry yeah yeah so it would better suit India's interest to at least try to shape the future in your neighborhood even if your chances of influencing Taliban are the more now one added advantage of of talking to Taliban and if you actually really manage to perform a miracle of convention Taliban if to distance Taliban away from Pakistan which will be a advantage for you in the long run the Pakistan won't have to worry about its vacant borders for the time being and hence can continue to cause problems for India on its and borders Afghan fighters and mercenaries will not head over to Jammu and Kashmir immediately and that helps India again a major reprieve albiet for a short duration of time remember we have covered the application of article 370 and the implications of of the impending u.s. Taliban peace deal in our previous episode 19 yeah and the current episode fits well with what happened in Jammu and Kashmir and how the Indian central government was handing the situation there so unless you can actually go back and listen to that episode as well now it was no secret that the route to peace in Afghanistan is through Pakistan the world will have to exert pressure on Pakistan to renounce and support for terror and exercise their influence on the Taliban to finally bring peace to the region which has obviously been ravished by decades of conflict where the Pakistan does change its behavior in Afghanistan or not remains to be seen yeah I think this is the crucial point that Pakistan being in a precarious position can the other powers exert Pakistan to change its behavior because it's not only India and the US but like I said sa you mentioned like neighbors like the Central Asian Republics Russia China and Iran which all have a vested interest in trying to bring peace to the region but whether they can convince Pakistan to do so remains to be seen also like Afghanistan is like very much different from the 90s I mean it's like one of the youngest nations in the world like it has a median age of 19 years which is one of the lowest excluding Africa its youngest country in the world and two-thirds of its population is below the age of is like 25 or below so I mean one of the slightly worrying aspects could be that like maybe two-thirds of the population has very little memory of the Taliban rule so they might be little bit indifferent to whether Taliban would be big beam power or not but I guess the support for an opinion polls show that the support for Taliban has been very low to begin with right and because you mentioned the low median age of the general population these people are actually fed up with the continuous violence that is being observed in the country one one famous quote in the recent past of one week was how US reacted to just the death of one soldier and managed to call off the negotiations but the Afghanistan's demson Afghanistan is themselves had no say in the entire peacemakers negotiations now again the quarters newer 911 is actually our 24/7 it kind of a very profound statement kind of implying that we are the ones who are suffering day in and day out and obviously we would want to have a greater say in how we want to shape a peaceful in Afghanistan in the long run yeah I mean the as I said the population is very young so there's also highly connected I mean still Afghanistan is a rural country by any definition but from like being 90% rural it's down to 75% and I saw some estimates that buys in the next 30 years or by 2050 like half the population will be living in cities so it's quite a bit of a modern crowd which is in of Kaiser is well-connected and more informed than previously so we hope that things take a better turn then what indeed like probably like 30 years previously - now I think that's where the Indian response comes in so we have done a lot of assistance work in Afghanistan including I believe like - 2 or 3 billion worth of assistance so I mean but there's always a constant craving what you hear from the Afghanistan is is to India to participate more in not only the reconstruction effort but also in the reconciliation efforts and also provide like more military assistance to have the Ashraf Ghani government like tackle the the insurgent groups but I don't know about the military assistance especially when we are at a delicate position in terms of intra Afghan refreshment but yeah I guess we need to at least have be more proactive than what we were like 30 years ago especially as our position has improved in visibly the world over the last three decades you okay folks so that's all we had on this episode now listeners if you are listening to our episode for the first time each episode we recommend to you any book article or read we we feel might interest you so keeping the practice going Kishore what's your recommendation for this week yeah when we were researching for this episode I found that the website ni wire actually has quite a few good interviews of Indian ambassador to Afghanistan all the interviews conducted by journalist and editor that F&I Amitabh revi so I would recommend that people can actually go and watch those interviews it gives her it gives a good insight into how India actually is keenly watching the developments and what India expects out of endo Afghan bilateral relations and what would your recommendation be my recommendation is like again like as you said like one of the format is Gotham Mukhopadhyay like he had a very good article on the collapse of the peace deal and what's the way forward and what should India do in the near term in terms of Afghanistan so that dear listener wraps up today's episode where we covered in detail the collapse of the Afghanistan peace talks and its implications for the entire region and India so to continue hearing about such interesting topics do subscribe to our Channel India rising where ever you are listening to us if you have not left us a review we urge you to do so edit it is as it helps other listeners like you in finding us we would also like to hear from you if you have any suggestions on any topics that you would like us to please do remember that these topics should be directly related to Indian foreign policy this is maja lancashire signing off [Music] you