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it's Thursday August the 22nd it's time to talk some more college football and I got a pick in a game on Saturday the 24th this line jumped right off the board at me and it should you too and should put your antennas up and I'll get to that in a moment with my analysis and free pick on that college football contest to be played uh on Saturday all right just a uh right off the top here folks a great special going on at wager talk right now it's our 10-year anniversary wager talk was uh began on August 24th uh which would be as of Saturday it will be exactly 10 years so what are we doing we're offering you a 10-year anniversary special alls you need to do at checkout uh is use the promo code 10 year that's 10 year you'll see it right below and uh you that will apply to any daily packages whether it be single game or multi-game or any all access passes so take advantage of this offer folks and this runs from today Thursday the 22nd through Sunday August the 25th again use at at checkout 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videos or instructional videos going up on our great Channel all right the game that I am referring to when I say it jumped right off the board at me is uh Montana State the Bobcats will be traveling to New Mexico to take on the New Mexico Lobos on Saturday afternoon a slated kickoff is 4M eastern time now I lost some value here because Montana State opened as a nine and a half Point favorite they're now up to 12 and a half but it doesn't matter to me because at the end of the day this is the highest a FES team FCS s team excuse me has ever been favored uh against an FBS team it's FCS is Montana State FBS New Mexico and uh if you go back in time you'll see we we'll get to that in a second let me just start with this for New Mexico uh they made a nice hire in the off season with Bronco mendenhal the former head coach over at Virginia and BYU but let's keep in mind uh mendenhal is inheriting a team that has not won more than four games over the last seven seasons as a matter of fact uh New Mexico since 2017 has gone a dismal 1960 also folks um this is also a New Mexico team that's ranked number 124 nationally when it comes to returning production rating and that means they're very inexperienced and the people they do bring back didn't give him a hell of a lot of production last year and also keep in mind uh it his first year at Virginia where he um took over a similar situation with the struggling program mendenhal went just two and 10 in his first year and when he took over at BYU um he only went six and six in his first year and that was a more wellestablished program with a lot of success so he hasn't really shown the ability to turn things around real quickly in his prior two stops uh so also again New Mexico has really really struggled over the last seven years and they're about to take on one of the better F FCS programs in all of college football as a matter of fact in a preseason poll this year Montana state is ranked number four they've gone 43 and 14 the last four years uh they've been to the national championship game two times the semifinal once and they were upset in the second round last year uh in the FCS playoffs and all four of those losses came against perennial power North Dakota State so very close to being a national championship ship team and two of those four occasions got to the semifinal another and last year were upset by North Dakota State 3534 in round two so this is a team that has a winning tradition uh they return return a lot of quality starters um as they return their starting quarterback they return five offensive linemen with starting experience they return their top wide receiver in terms of production and their four top running backs and that's key because the four top running backs in the offensive line experience because Montana State can run the ball last last year they averaged 39.9 yards uh 39.9 points per game excuse me and they also rushed for 291 yards per game and by the way New Mexico last year they allowed 198 yards or more rushing in eight of their 12 games so and they don't return a lot and uh I can't I can't imagine that Montana State's not going to run the ball with a high degree of success and contr the clock throughout this contest they also returned meaning Montana state they're five top tacklers on defense and uh again folks you know you look at these FCS and FBS matchups it automatically we assume the FBS team is going to uh win the majority of the time and that's been the case since 1992 FBS teams or division one teams that they were uh at one time uh called uh one are 128 7 and 92 since 1992 against FCS or division 1A that they were called at the time however since 2021 FCS teams have defeated FBS teams seven times by 13 points or more so they won seven times and they won each of those games by 13 points or more so if you notice when you go to those results a majority of them are quality FCS teams that rank in the top 10 nationally uh at at that level and again North Dakota state for example uh since 2010 has gone six- one versus FBS teams and knocking off some juggernauts along the way so when you get into the quality opposition for f uh quality teams in the FCS and you're facing a FBS team like New Mexico lower tier um it favors Montana State now is the 12 and a half points too much I don't think so I really don't and to see this line go from nine and a half to 12 and a half speaks volumes to me and that's sharp money folks I could tell you that right now because the average Tom Dick and Harry that just bets on Sports once in a while or college football is a novice better we'll look at this matchup and say well New Mexico has to be to play here plus 12 and a half but I beg to differ I'm going to think like a odds maker here I'm going to take Montana State minus 12 and a half over New Mexico that's Montana State minus 12 and a half over New Mexico on Saturday August the 24th all right who is your uh top pick top pick this coming weekend I know there's only three games uh with a line or three or four games with a line but uh share your top pick for the weekend Florida state Georgia Tech going on Saturday so uh let us know and uh if not let us know your best pick on the following week which is week one of the college football season which we pretty much have a Full Slate with everybody in action so again uh your comments are more than welcome keep them respectful there's it's okay to Banner back and forth folks but just be respectful of others that includes myself okay because if you're not going to be respect will remove your ability to comment uh there's nothing wrong with disagreeing but keep it nice all right so I'll be back uh tomorrow with another free pick video in college football and until then folks take care and God bless