New Polls Show Harris Leading Trump in Pennsylvania 🗳️📊

the big debate tomorrow night is in the city of Philadelphia which is in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania now in a previous episode of CNN news Central I circled Pennsylvania many many times to emphasize just how important it could be in the election watching from home when I was doing that was CNN's senior data reporter hareton who is standing right here to kind of put some meat on the bones right and do a better job than I did of just circling Pennsylvania I'm going to be additive I couldn't do a better job I'm just going to make the product you've made even better so I just want to take a look at Pennsyvania Pennsylvania Pennsylvania and what we see is a tightening race in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania all right this is Harris vs Trump margin in the great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania a month ago when you looked at the polls New York Times plus4 Harris plus three Quinnipiac for Harris Franklin and Marshall plus three for Harris but look at polls that have come out over the last week or so and what do we see we see a much tighter race we see a tie in the CBS new ugv poll we see a tie in the CNN SSRS poll and this to me is part of an emerging pattern which is in a very pivotal State what we saw was a small Harris lead but within the margin of error becoming a race that is way way way too close to call this particular point one that is even you say very pivotal the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania could be how pivotal how pivotal all right so let's take a look at this this particular map this is with the betting favorites but with Kamala Harris taking the great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania over here what do we see we see that K Harris wins in this particular case look at that with exactly 270 electoral votes to Donald Trump's 268 all right so kamla Harris wins The Electoral College when she wins the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania but let's take Pennsylvania out of KLA Harris's column and put him in a Donald Trump's column again with the betting favorites with Trump taking Pennsylvania what happens when we turn Pennsylvania red well take a look here Donald Trump wins in the Electoral College 287 electoral votes to comma Harris's 251 electoral votes so that is why I say it is pivotable pivotal pivotal pivot yeah it is so important it's it's worth adding letters I will say it's it's worth adding letters I can't even get it out the bottom line is it is so important this state is very very important you important data people like to call it a Tipping Point State it looks like Pennsylvania could be the Tipping Point State which means the one state that will decide the election now if it is in fact the Tipping Point St is there any elected official in Pennsylvania who may have been on a ticket that might have made a difference well this was the great question when kamla Harris was making her VP selection who should she select and of course folks like myself thought that she should take Josh Shapiro of course as the governor of the great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania why because his approval rating is 59% and the bottom line is if KLA Harris loses in the state of Pennsylvania and that is the Tipping Point State as Mr Burman put it the state that put Donald Trump over the top in the Electoral College there are going to be some real questions as to whether K Harris should have chosen Josh airo given how popular he is in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania could she have been a winner if she had chosen him instead of Tim Waltz we don't know the answer to that question we don't know who's going to win the state of Pennsylvania but it's certainly a question that at this particular moment with the Pennsylvania polls getting Tighter and Tighter and Tighter that I'm certainly asking John haran great to see you as always pivotal pivotal to see you pivot this no I'm sorry we are now officially changing it to pivotable because sounds fantastic we're going with that thank you Gentlemen let's talk about all of this and how pivotable it all is joining us right now CNN senior political analyst and Senior editor with the Atlantic Ron Brown It's good to see you Ron okay Ron you coined the phrase the blue wall recently you were writing more about the history of the wall how Michigan Pennsylvania Wisconsin have voted the same way in every presidential election since 1980 save one that suggests what though Ron This Time Around yeah I mean it is striking I mean these are states that are demographically and economically similar and as you know they voted the same way in every presidential election since 80 except one they've even voted the same way in every gubernatorial election since 1994 except one they tend to move together that's the history uh but as you're noting we're seeing something of a different pattern potentially uh this year if you look at the totality of the recent polling the CBS poll yesterday the se24 yugov project and the CNN polls last week I think they you look at them all together they suggest that Harris is opening kind of sort of a little bit of space in Michigan and Wisconsin which means as you've been discussing if she can add Pennsylvania she gets to exactly uh 70 Pennsylvania looks tougher by the way looking kind of looking at this even more narrowly Pennsylvania and Michigan have voted the same way in every election since 1940 except for one in 1976 when Michigan went with favored son Gerald Ford and Pennsylvania went with Jimmy Carter so for them to separate obviously history you know prior results there is no guarantee of future performance but for them to separate would be a striking uh deviation from our history over really the last 80 years it really fascinating and axus kind of summing up the polling trends of recent axus put it this way this morning which I loved kind of speaking to all all American voters you live in a toss up Nation where every election brings coin toss close fights to run American government I mean is that just what you added all up to and what we see now well it you know it's really kind of a striking dynamic in that I I I was recently talking to Carl Rove and he was reminiscing about how many states as recently as the 2000 election they were playing in either on offense or on defense places like Tennessee or Kentucky that we no longer consider West Virginia even part of the dialogue what's happened is that the number of Swing States has dwindled to six or seven but those States themselves have become hyperco competitive I mean they are swing States because they are balanced you know on the edge of a knife so what you're talking about is a couple hundred, people in really six or seven states choosing the direction for a nation of 300 million 330 million and we see some pretty similar patterns whether we're talking about the national polling or the swing State polling where Harris like Biden is running pretty close to what Biden got in his winning number in 2020 among white voters maybe a little below where he was among whites without a college degree maybe a little above where he was among whites with a college degree netting out to about the same place but despite her gains uh she is still not equaling what Democrats usually get among non-white voters and young voters and that in many ways looks like her Challenge and her task in the remaining weeks of the campaign let me ask you this Ron Dana and I were just talking about I want to get your take on this voters continue to say that they want to know more about KLA Harris's policy positions yeah the Harris campaign just has added an issues tab on the campaign website but I wonder what you think about this perception from from voters and I'm wondering what her campaign thinks about it as well and if they are okay with that perception uh well first of all I think we basically know what a kamla Harris presidency would focus on because there is kind of a communal bottomup agenda from the Democratic party really at all levels I mean if you look at the pieces of the bill back better bill that passed the house in 2021 and were script out in the Senate by mansion and Cinema that pretty much a presidential agenda child tax credit increased Child Care help health subsidies more prescription drug uh a support uh you know gun control I mean there's a broad agenda that's out there but you know voters are saying 30% in that poll in the New York Times rising to 40% among Latino and black voters 50% of younger voters they need to know more about her it's not only her agenda I think it's who she is who her values are and whether they are comfortable with her as president I think that's her big job uh on Tuesday night more than making the case against Donald Trump making the case for herself interesting great to see you Ron thank you so much