[Music] pollster Nate Silver's election forecast now has former president Trump slightly ahead of Vice President Harris heading into Labor Day weekend while Harris is beating the former president by 3.8 points based on the updated silver bulletin's National polling tracker the vice president's chance of winning the electoral college has dipped Silver's forecast has Trump with 52.4% of winning the Electoral College around 5% higher than Harris's 47 3% some of this is because of the convention bounce adjustment that the model applies to polls that were conducted during or after the DNC silver wrote on Thursday it assumes Harris's polls are somewhat inflated right now in other words just as it assumed Trump's numbers were inflated after the RNC silver wrote that if Harris is able to maintain her current standing for a couple more weeks she'll begin to track up again in our forecast as the model will become more confident that she's out of the convention bounce period a new Bloomberg news/ morning consult poll released on Thursday at Harris leading Trump by an average of two points across seven Battleground States when the poll was restricted to likely voters in Arizona Georgia Michigan Nevada North Carolina Pennsylvania and Wisconsin she was up by 1 Point a statistical tie a new survey from Emerson College polling and the Hill released Le Thursday morning found that Trump and Harris are essentially tied in each of the Battleground States since she replaced President Biden as the party's Presidential nominee Harris has closed the polling Gap with the former president erasing the lead Trump had while he campaigned against the incumbent president a ddhq slthe hill aggregate of polls currently has Harris at 49% nearly 4% higher than Trump's 45.1% [Music]