Apple (AAPL) A.I. & Wearables Justifies Valuation

Published: Sep 09, 2024 Duration: 00:07:23 Category: Education

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last 40 minutes. But buyers showing up throughout the day. Joining us Martin Yang covers the stock for Oppenheimer. He's a senior analyst of emerging technologies and services. Martin good to see you again. Tell me about your thoughts from Glow Time. Sure. Our takeaway from the Glow Time is that the iPhone updates is quite incremental. Nothing exciting. And, the hardware doesn't have as many major upgrades as previous years, but the chip upgrades is critical for AI implementation in the coming months and into next year, in contrast, we believe that wearables on AirPods and Apple Watch updates are more meaningful, and those will help drive Reacceleration in accessory category growth for September quarter and in coming quarters. And those are critical to overall growth. The device install base for Apple. How big are those at this point for the company. Or are you talking about numbers here. Crucial for you know the overall trajectory for like the bottom line the wearables. Yeah. When we compare Apple, when we compare, the other devices to iPhone, nothing is as meaningful. So the combination of accessories and iPhone and Apple Watch is still under 10% of total revenues compared to iPhone, contributing to over 50% of Apple's revenues. So the overall dollar amount contribution even consider much faster growth rate will be much smaller relative to iPhone. Okay, then, services, getting to like 20% of revenue, what is the connection then between wearable growth and services growth? Because I could see that argument then if services a higher margin kind of higher profit, do the wearables contribute more to services than the phone, or does the phone still serve as the backbone for all the services? Yeah. It varies, there's very strong connection between Apple Watch adoption and fitness. Fitness+ subscription. And also AirPods will be the best provides you with the best listening experience on Apple devices. So maybe in a less direct way will drive Apple Music growth. As far as the main draw for the next phone, Apple intelligence. How do you feel about the information they've conveyed already? Do you feel there's enough information about what it's going to be capable of to assess who's going to buy it, or is the idea that the utility is second to the fad cult like behavior that'll just snatch up a new phone? And so we don't even need to know what's in it? Yeah. I think, what I think both of your arguments have are valid points in it. Number one is we are entering into a period where the bulk of iPhone 12, iPhone 13 users are going to upgrade. And because there are already devices already coming up to four years old. And so that's the bigger underlying trend that will drive acceleration in iPhone shipment. The other is Apple intelligence, I think, you know, based on what we learned from the WWDC earlier this year and then yesterday, Apple intelligence still is the strongest on device AI assistant for mobile phone users and a big differentiation is action, where you can ask Siri to fulfill a action either on Apple's native apps or third party in-app actions. Those are things or functions. Other AI assistants on mobile phones cannot fulfill at the moment. So there's still a big distance between what Apple intelligence can do versus competitors, the valuation right now, 33 times forward earnings, looks basically other than the high from earlier this summer, the most expensive Apple's been does all that make sense then. Does it add up to the most potential this company's ever had according to valuations? Isn't that what Ford P tells us? The most potential ever, relatively historically, this multiple is very high, and we could argue and we believe that Apple's market positioning in hardware and upcoming software cycle justify the valuation, when you look across potential implementation of personalized AI, consumer AI assistant, Apple is best positioned. And so far, Apple has demonstrated that it has the best in class implementation and integration of those AI systems. We haven't seen any other similar AI system that can provide you with a deep integration with the hardware, and so that will drive both hardware sales as well as software attachment. And then further supporting a faster service revenue growth. When you talk about the integration, you're saying going beyond just the Q and A that I've got on the Google phone, which has already been downloaded with Gemini, I press and hold the button. It's basically like I've got ChatGPT in my hand. It's pretty neat. So So Apple's will be more deeply complex than that. That's correct. So you know there are two types. One, you know the type of chatbot we have seen is they are very good at retrieving general knowledge online knowledge. But the integration I'm talking about is integration of your personal details. And to help you to make informed decisions or help you to fulfill or save time on your daily tasks like scheduling meetings or trips and those are the detailed information you would share with Apple and a very secure manner. And because of the user trust, most iOS users placed for Apple. Apple is able to, give you more functionality because of the integration of personal details and their on device large language models for other devices. It remains to be seen if users are able to share or willing to share as much information about themselves to other OEMs or software vendors. So it's kind of like the way, like software companies and builders engineers right now are taking the GPT framework and inputting their own data sets, to build fresh products. Apple basically kind of will take the cues from what you put in as sort of your own customized data set, in a way. So all right, I guess it should be fun. We'll find out what more details next month. What's the next big one on your calendar, upcoming. We'll see. Initial rollout of the beta version of Apple Intelligence, and we'll see how users respond to it. And also, you know, buy the same, you know, in a month time, we'll see early adoption rate of the Apple iPhone hardware to see how that compares to last year. All right. Well, let's check back in next month. Martin, thanks for the thoughts. Pleasure. All right. Martin Yang seni

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