New CNN polls in battleground states show nailbiter in two key states

There are just 62 days until Election Day and six days until Kamala Harris and Donald Trump meet on the debate stage in Philadelphia. Yeah, and there are just two days. Yes, two. Until the first Mail-In ballots will be sent out, voters are going to be voting new CNN polling released just this morning, shows a race that is truly neck and neck among likely voters in key battleground states. Harris holds a lead over Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan. In Arizona, Trump holds the lead. In nearby Nevada. There's no clear leader. And in what are arguably the two most critical states, well, it's a tie. There is no clear leader in Georgia, and it is dead. Even in the must win state of Pennsylvania, around 15% of likely voters in these swing states say they are open to changing their mind about which candidate they will support. On average, about two thirds of likely voters in these states say they're extremely motivated to vote in November. And here is where you see evidence that Harris's momentum is from getting the Democratic base. Voters excited. In Michigan, 72% of Democratic aligned registered voters say they're extremely motivated to vote. That is up from 58% back in March. This new CNN polling shows that the race to to 70, the pass of the white House, runs straight through Georgia and Pennsylvania. If Trump holds north Carolina and wins both of those states, then he can lose Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. It wouldn't matter if Kamala Harris wins Pennsylvania and she holds Wisconsin and Michigan. She only needs one more electoral vote to get over the top. She's looking at you, Omaha, and the post Labor Day sprint kicks into high gear. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are sounding two very different tones. Watch. I can't believe that there's going to be a close election. You know, we're leading in the polls, but and it looks close. But I think in the end it's going to be a close election. We are the underdog in this race and and we have some hard work done ahead of us. But here's the beauty of us in this room. We like our work. Hard work is good work. Hard work is joyful. Work. All right. Joining us now our panel is here, Elliot Williams, CNN legal analyst, former federal prosecutor David Chalian, CNN political director Kendrick Barcroft, former press secretary to Joe Biden, and Matt Gorman, the former senior adviser to Tim Scott's presidential campaign. Welcome to all of you. Thank you so much for being here. David Chalian. very exciting to have swing state battleground likely voter screened polls here with just 62 days out. That's how you know, we're past everything you do, and there's no one better than you to help us understand what we've learned in this CNN data. So honestly, take us through it. What what did you find most interesting? What should we be paying attention to here? First, just that map that you put up of what these polls tell us about the paths to 270. I think it's one of the big takeaways here, because we have talked so much about that blue wall Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. And as you noted here, we're seeing Harris with slightly leads in in Michigan and Wisconsin. And so instead of our focus for the next 62 days, just being on those blue wall states, I really think you have to go down the side of the East Coast that Pennsylvania, Georgia. We'll see. We don't have North Carolina in this set of polling. If that is acting like Georgia, those states may be the ones in Germany. It's because, as you noted, Donald Trump has to have everything. Just hold everything in 20 flip Pennsylvania in Georgia, he's the president again. And so if Harris can win one of those states, that's a huge block that she puts up in the path for Donald Trump and sets her potentially on. Of course, the other thing I would note, the motivation obviously is key. And that is what we've seen over the last, since July 21st when Joe Biden stepped off the stage here. Just the snap back into contention. But it hasn't catapulted Harris into some commanding position in this race. What it has done is make this race extraordinarily competitive and tight again. And I just see you see that across this. I would also note, and I know you have these numbers put up the gender gap. Yeah I think this is fascinating. If you look at likely female voters across these states you see enormous margins for Harris there. I mean, look, in Wisconsin, that's, I mean, 57 is a landslide in our. So she's plus 17. She's plus 16. She's plus 15. Those are challenges doing math on. Sorry, buddy. I know this is like an awesome, awesome feat. I love show the other side because among likely male voters, it's big advantage. Trump. This is what we mean by the gap when we say gender gap, it's not just the advantage among female voters. For Democrat, it's the difference between the female voter advantage among Democrats and the male voter advantage among Republicans. And you see what a big advantage that is for Trump among male voters. And that, to me, is going to be one of the definitional things when we are on election night. looking at the results. Well, Matt Gorman, that's one of the reasons why, you know, the Sunday New York Times had Trump courting the manosphere on its front page and why he's doing all these podcasts with these types of people. Right. I mean, what do you when you look at these numbers, David, digging into what you say a couple things. Number one, you're absolutely right. Whoever wins their subgroup like their gender by more than the other one loses it. That's that's what the whole election is about. Number one Pennsylvania, it's Pennsylvania is the ball game. There's no reasonable way you can really, in my opinion, win Pennsylvania and lose a state like Georgia or Nevada. They all kind of are linked, maybe not tangibly, but essentially Wisconsin and Michigan, they've always kind of gone together. That's less of a surprise. And look, I think Nevada is back in play. Arizona. What was surprising to me, obviously abortion, there's a referendum on the ballot. So it tells me that there's not an automatic pro abortion and pro Harris linking together on that. And then the last point is look it's 62 days away I believe that's July 4th to today. So think back. It's it's not that nothing has changed since July 4th you know. So only the entire race. Yeah. David Champion, can we talk about Georgia for a second? I'm interested to know what you think about what Matt said in that maybe George and Pennsylvania go together, but. And this was this is something that when I talk to Republicans, they say, well, this is kind of a tough hill for her to climb in Georgia. Do you agree with that? Our polling suggests maybe it's not quite there. Well, here's what I find fascinating about Georgia among white non-college-educated voters. That's obviously part of Donald Trump's base of voters. he performs best in Georgia in that group. I mean, that I find really, really fascinating. And in fact, even among white, college educated voters, Donald Trump is dominating in Georgia. And that is that is a demographic that, you know, Harrison, Democrats, over the last many years have been trying, to to utilize to to close the gap with the Republicans in certain places. That is why. And again, the African-American vote in Georgia is going to be the ballgame for Kamala Harris here. If she is going to be able to get over the hump here and repeat Joe Biden's performance, it's the white vote there looks different, no matter the education level, than it does in a lot of these other states. It's just it's a much more pro-Trump category. And so, she has to significantly overperform with African-Americans there. I was just going to say, as somebody who worked for Bob Casey in Pennsylvania and know the state decently, I would say it's I would be curious to know where the breakdown is to, because you see the big cities, the Pittsburgh Zoo, Philadelphia, and then everything in between is a very different place. Right? But the people vote differently and so seeing the campaign get in there to go to Harrisburg, go to the smaller Lancaster, go to these smaller cities, shows me that they every vote is going to count for these campaigns. And they recognize that by going to these small towns, by going to these small cities in Pennsylvania. Yeah. Well, I mean, you have to raise the question as to I mean, they're going to be looking back at the vice presidential pick. If they didn't pick Shapiro and not come down in Pennsylvania, perhaps, ruing that decision, possibly. However, to the point that was raised before, there's a there's a scenario in which Nebraska's one, electoral vote becomes relevant and that Tim Walz is our Jeff Zeleny was just there in his home state and looking at that blue dot. And for the term uses blue. And for folks who aren't familiar, Nebraska has one electoral vote, right around because they divide their electoral college votes by congressional districts. It holds the state. If you win in Omaha, then the whole state can be red, but that can be blue. And there is a scenario and correct me if I if I'm getting the math wrong here, David, but if Kamala Harris wins, I believe it's Pennsylvania. And, Michigan and Michigan and Wisconsin, then that one vote in Nebraska becomes quite consequential. So all of these decisions around who one picks as vice president can come up to bite, to bite or reward a candidate. Pretty spectacular. But no. But of course, if she is to lose Pennsylvania, then I think the finger pointing come November 6th will be here. David, what does our poll tell us? I mean, obviously we know it's a dead heat in Pennsylvania, and our poll has this, you know, nose to nose. The number is the exact same. where are you kind of paying most attention in terms of Pennsylvania specifically? Well, you got three counties in Pennsylvania that are so-called these, boomerang, these pivot boomerang counties. They, they went for Obama twice. They went for Trump. They went for Biden. Right. And so, looking at a place like Erie, Pennsylvania or Northampton County, these are not contiguous counties, not Erie being way out west and Northampton County being eastern, near Allentown. I think watching how those, those counties behave is really important. Obviously, as Ken were saying, you if you're a Democrat, you win Pennsylvania obviously by running up the margins in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and what James Carville called Alabama in the middle, that's where Trump is, what some people who live in Pennsylvania call it, that is that is where, Trump needs to run up the score. That's just the way the map of the Commonwealth works. But I do think there are interesting pockets like these counties that may show us, some movement this cycle. What is different about 24 than was about 20 or 16?