Florida Football 2024 Schedule Preview & Record Projection

Intro what's going on YouTube this is sg1 sports and you're watching our college football channel we're going to continue here with our projected record series and previewing each team schedules the Florida Gators are up next uh before we get to the 2024 schedule let's look back at 2023 and here is this 2023 schedule for Florida again this was the schedule that we ranked as the toughest schedule in college football um I I don't there were other schedule rankings I saw out there that did not have Florida as number one as far as the the number one toughest schedule but my rank this the formula that I used to rank the schedules they did have the toughest schedule and it did prove to be a very tough one and you know I think Florida was better than a lot of six and six teams last year but their schedule was just really tough and that's why they didn't make it to a bowl game which is why I predicted them to go five and seven in the preseason as you take a look at the schedule again they had to play Utah and Florida State in the non-conference but their non-conference schedule this year might be even tougher yes it is a tough schedule um you look at who they played out of the SEC West they had to play Arkansas and LSU which turned out to not be as tough as we thought LSU was not quite as good as I thought they were going to be Arkansas was a lot worse than I thought they were going to be and Tennessee was not as good as I thought they were going to be uh Missouri was better than I thought they would be so the schedule uh you know it turned out I think to not be quite as tough as we thought in the preseason but still was really tough schedule and a big reason why they went 5- seven so here's the 2024 schedule and before we go game by game let's break it down we'll start with the non-conference Nonconference they'll play Miami sford UCF and Florida State they'll play Florida State on the road you know it's it's hard to say right now how tough this non-conference schedule really is but we expect Miami to be pretty good we expect UCF to be pretty good and we expect Florida State to be really good and so you've got three tough games there uh Samford is really the only gimme on their schedule they don't even get to play Vanderbilt this year so it's a really tough schedule uh but the non-conference schedule here again it looks like it's going to be tough It's hard to say just how tough I mean is this going to be a brutal uh non-conference schedule against three top 25 teams that's possible or perhaps Miami struggles again UCF isn't great Florida State's not as good as they were last year and maybe it's not too bad uh but it's definitely a respectable non-conference schedule no doubt about that you look at their home schedule Miami Sanford and UCF non-conference games all at home and then they get Tex A&M Kentucky LSU and Old Miss Nice did not have to go on the road to play LSU of course that's a tough place to play same thing with Texas A&M uh Kentucky and old miss you know those might be winnable games Texas A&M as well so you've got some games at home that you can possibly win and you know I I'm not going to say you out of these these games right here these seven games I'm not going to say there's no chance that Florida wins six of them uh they could you know they have a great HomeField Advantage they go six and one in these games and they can get to a bowl game um also good news is the Georgia game which is a neutral site game of course that is counted as a road game for them this year which means they get four home games three Road games in the SEC and then a neutral sight game so that works out um so it's it's not all bad for Florida the schedule is really tough but it's not all bad you look at their Road schedule and I put Georgia in here um as on the away side because it's not at home even though it's a neutral site but you got Florida state in the non-conference of course then Mississippi State tough place to play but uh I don't know how good the Bulldogs are going to be Tennessee they beat them last year uh you got Texas that's going to be a really tough one um and then like I said Georgia so let's look at the schedule they start with Schedule Miami that'll be the season opener there on August 31st then they get Samford on September the 7th and again that is their only gimme game you look at the rest of this schedule do you see a game on this schedule where you'd say Florida has a 90% chance of winning other than sford I don't don't think so I don't even know if you can say they have another game where they have a 75% chance of winning I mean it's it's tough they just really there no breaks on the schedule outside of that Sanford game so they'll play Texas A&M they'll open up the SEC play there on September the 14th at home that's the good news first three games all at home again it's not all bad it's not all bad uh Mississippi State on the road on September the 21st first road game of the season but again a game where they're going to have a shot uh I think that's close to a 50-50 game you've got UCF on October the 5th I don't know how good they're going to be but that's a winnable game at home coming off of a by week so again uh the start to the schedule if you look at the first five games not too bad now you look at the last five games and oh wow uh we'll get to those in a second but after UCF they'll play Tennessee on the road October the 12th that'll be a tough one that'll be a tough one playing them on the road then they get Kentucky at home on October the 19th and so they'll go to their second bye there before playing Georgia and again all teams will get two by- weeks this year and the first seven games it's not horrible that is not a horrible schedule um you know they might have to win six of them though to get to a bowl game because their final five games are that tough uh which is kind of how it was this year they they lost a bunch of games there at the end but yeah U first seven games tough no easy wins in there other than Samford but a lot of games where they're at least going to have a shot and several games at home Kentucky UCF Texas A&M Miami um and then again that Sanford game so five games at home if you go five and two though in those games I don't think you win another one because the rest of the schedule again is that tough we start with Georgia there on November the 2nd in Jacksonville we know how good Georgia uh is expected to be they're always you know they're they are a premier program now in college football Texas is going to be really really tough this is potentially a top five team this year LSU is going to be tough get them at home that's the good news but still that's going to be a tough game Old Miss is going to be tough they've got a lot coming back and then they close things out with Florida state in the Rivalry game on November 30th so I'm not going to say they have no chance to win a game in those final five maybe they they win against LSU or R Miss at home find a win in there somewhere and 5- two in the first seven games would get them to a bowl game but I think really seriously they might need to go six and one in those first seven games because th that stretch at the end that's I I haven't compared all the stretches in college football but I would say that has to be the toughest five game stretch for any team we're talking about Georgia Texas LSU Miss and Florida State all of these teams I believe ranked in the top 13 this year and none of them expected to drop off a ton next year so overall a tough schedule not as bad as as you might think when you just look at the teams but that that stretch at the end again that has to be the most brutal stretch in all of college football tough schedule for Florida once again in 2024 Record Projection here is is where uh thoro was expected to be last season of course finished 5- seven our projection had them at six- six I personally predicted them to go five and seven Athlon Sports predicted them to go 5- seven the over under was at 5 and a half so this is a team that was expected to be 5- seven or six and six and they did wind up at 5- s could have very easily been six- six though if you look back at their season last year uh had some close games had some close calls for sure uh it's it's it's just such a tough schedule such a tough schedule last year in such a tough schedule this year it just makes it to where again the projections are not going to be great you can see again five and seven last year here's the 2024 schedule and this is the scale that we use if it's under 20 over 80 those are games where I think it's almost a guarantee who's going to win uh yeah those upsets do sometimes happen but uh that those games we we count those as wins and losses 20 to 29 71 to 80 those are games that are considered uh teams were pretty big favorites you know 10 to 16 points maybe in in that range then you got your 30 to 39 and um 61 to 70% games those are games where I think the spread will be closer to a touchdown 6 seven eight points kind of in that range and then uh your 5050 games they'll stay in the white those are games that could really go either way games where I think the spread will be less than less than six so for Florida we'll start with the easy wins and they've only got one of them and that's sford that is the only easy win on the schedule in fact it's the only game on this schedule where I think Florida is going to be a clear favorite I think every other game they're either going to be an underdog or maybe a slight favorite that's again just how tough this schedule is uh so you've got one win there you can count on that one if they lose that game then uh Billy nap are going to be fired but you may be fired anyways depending on how this season goes I actually think Florida is a better team than a lot of people are giving them credit for but again it's just a schedule it's brutal so you've got LSU and Florida State these are games where I think Florida is going to be favored or is going to be an underdog by about a touchdown I don't think they're going to be huge underdogs in these games uh LSU you know this is a probably a you know I don't have them as a top tier team but they're still going to be up there um and probably a top 15 team potentially better but it's at Florida so I think they're going to have a chance in that game if they're going to pull off a big upset that's probably the most likely game to to happen then Florida State I think Florida State's going to be a better team plus they're playing at home but it's a rivalry game so I think that gives Florida a chance and I don't think Florida State's going to be as good as they were last year so yeah they'll have a chance in both of those games but I do think they will clearly be the underdog in both matchups and probably by about a touchdown I think they'll be a bigger Underdog against Tennessee Georgia and Old Miss I think you're looking at Double Digit underdogs in these three games I know they beat Tennessee last year but um Tennessee I think is going to be better this year plus the game is on the road I I can understand if maybe you want to put that game in the yellow that's fine I don't think it would really change the projection but uh just with the tier system that I use I do have Tennessee as a tier 2 Team uh and because that game is on the road that's why that one is in the orange and then Georgia it's it's not it's a neutral sight game it's a rivalry so I'm not going to put that in the red if you went by my tier system that game would actually be in the red but again rivalry game not on the road it's not home but it's not on the road it's a neutral site so that's why that one's in the orange but again you could you could make an argument for that game being in the red and putting Tennessee in the yellow and then you're going to get the same projection uh this is not a prediction we're a long ways away from doing predictions this is simply just a projection ol Miss also I think in the orange I've got this team as a as a top maybe top five team this year I think they're going to be really good even at home for Florida I think Miss is much much better and again it's not impossible for Florida to win but I think they're going to be double digit underdogs and then the one game where I'm just going to give them no chance that's Texas uh Texas also does figure to be a tier one team plus this game is on the road so if it was at home or neutral site we might put it in the orangs but because it's on the road I'm just going to go ahead and say Florida has no chance I just do not see them going on the road and beating Texas and so that means you've got one two three four five six games six games where Florida is going to be an underdog and I think clearly an underdog and then you have the other six games where it's either a game that could go either way or maybe their favored like this game against Sanford so if you want to get to a bowl game there's your there's your six games right there Miami Sanford Texas ADM Mississippi State UCF and Kentucky you win those games you get to a bowl game or maybe you lose one and you pull off an upset against say LSU like I said earlier that might be their best chance at a big upset it's going to be tough it's going to be tough for this team to get to a bowl game U you look at the Miami game I think Miami's probably going to be favored but not by much Texas A&M probably favored by not but not by much and again those games were at home for Florida so that's going to give them a chance uh I'd probably say Florida will be favored on the road at Mississippi State again not by much maybe a field goal I think they will be favored against UCF ucf's the one game that I think is is almost in the purple I do think Florida's probably favored by four or five points in that one but not quite the six or seven and then Kentucky that's a true tossup I really could see that game going either way but again if Florida can win all these games all their 50/50 games and take care of Samford they can get to a bowl game but it's going to be tough so the projection for them it's not a bowl game it's five and seven because again the odds are going to say they're not going to win every 50/50 game if they just split the 50-50 games and let's say let's say they go three and two in the 50-50 games and they beat sford that puts them at 4 and eight uh but again the odds would say that they're going to pull off an upset against you know an LSU or maybe a couple UPS sets here again that's just what the odds would say and it does get them up to 5 and seven but again a projection to not even go to a bowl game again for Florida with a an absolutely brutal schedule five- seven just like last year that is the projection you guys agree do you disagree where do you see this team uh where would you project their record let me know your thoughts down in the comments 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