What's it like to forecast weather in Brazil? (not good)

I'm not sure if youall remember this but a few days ago I made this I made this tweet talking about how um setups in Brazil like to die uh due to poor thermodynamics and this setup right here that I mentioned here on the 21st of August um is a perfect example of that the example of this still is uh is a good example today right now and I mentioned that normally thermodynamics get better as we go as we get closer to the event and they did kind of but they still not good you can see right here though we have the the main draw here I'm going to call it l because it's a low pressure system you can see the trough is mainly ejecting over Uruguay but we do have some good influence on the trough here over uh H some good convergence as well uh overall very decent trough right it is slightly um slightly positive slightly negative tiled as well or maybe a little bit not um a little bit more to the neutral side but it's still a fairly decent trough um it's not the worst trough in the world we got better troughs uh multiple times but this is a decent trough and then you look at milar then you see wow like we have some good good lowlevel jet like everything is going great like and then you go into the temperatures the temperatures are decent we have a cold front right here right so let me draw it as more cold from also I'm sorry for not having a decent Zoom feature unfortunately P weather doesn't care about Brazilians but you can see right here we have a cold front right here right small cold front this going bring some good um cold temperatures later this week it's moving North is moving north northeastern uh uh so and we have some good forcing here we have a trough we have another fory mechanism which is the colron we have some good um lowlevel moisture since he D points in the 23s 22s Celsius of course and then you look at the instability and this is most cape for a reason because the ml Cape is completely T I mean it is not it is probably the best Su Dynamics I've seen in a setup here in Brazil in a while uh but yeah yet again we have the world's biggest uh inversion ml Cape is poor although surface Cape is decent mid level abates are mid although they are still better than Northeast but and you do have a decent Shear like you do have a good Shear but we never get those good thermodynamics the same goes for the next day the 22nd right uh you can see yet again a very decent looking trough now we have the trough ejecting over yug d in Sarina you can look here at the low level Jets we have good low level Jets yet again the cold font is moving the cold front already is like in the middle of the ofu moving a little bit northwards we still have good temperatures however uh the view points are are mid but you can work with 18 to 17 if the temperatures are not that high and they're not that high either they're 23 24 you can work with that but yet again the M the the the the atmosphere overall is not good because yet again the giant inversion that I just mentioned comes back and you have horor Cape poor lapse rates terrible profile overall for a setup that has some decent Shear yet again you can see right here up to 190 knots of of De player Shear yes of course this is probably contaminated but that's that is Brazil guys uh amazing stics kinematics are great amazing Wing cheer good level Jets but then when you f you need that thermodynamic boost it dies and when we do have those good thermodynamics we lack the actual good kinematic system and even then sometimes when had both sometimes setups bust I love forcasting in Brazil