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[Music] welcome back to Brave Birds DFS one of the best places for PGA NFL MLB and NBA news and of course DFS if you don't know by now I'm Walt if you haven't already please like And subscribe to my channel breathe it is here football season is here no dis respect to any of the summer Sports I grew up a big baseball fan I'm still a big braids fan I love PGA DFS and the basketball season early in the summer was good and yeah we had the Olympics but this is America let's keep it a buck the only thing that even Rivals the NFL is college football but I don't do content on college football so we are going to talk about week one of the DFS fan FY football season so a few caveat let's talk about a few things for this week one so as someone who works with Statistics all the time I'm just telling you there are pros and cons to week one so let's talk about the preseason so we know that back in the day probably 5 10 15 years ago uh starters actually played more during the pre-season and we were able to get an idea a better idea idea of you know what's going on with the starters well as we know now because of the salaries and because of Just The Way teams are structured now Starters play little to none in the preseason plus you have all these situations with contract negotiations and hold out so we don't get a chance to see starters in the pre-season like we used to plus we have one less preseason game and one one more regular season game so all that being said the pre-season does not give us the statistics and the heads up that it used to also coaches coaches be trying to be sneaky they are not going to show or tell too much of anything to the opposing coaches in the preseason so even when you have the starters on the field they not going to do that you know some kind of crazy if y'all remember 10 15 years ago when Michael viig started off the game and threw that bomb to what was it uh to Deshawn Jackson or whatever they not going to do nothing fancy like that in the preseason and show their best plays so even when you are watching the preseason you are seeing vanilla plays so all that being said the preseason is not a lot of help so when it comes to there are a lot of great tools out there some of them cost a lot of money some of them cost a little bit of money there are a lot of good content creators out there I believe that I'm one of them but I watch other content creators you know I have only had my own channel for like I don't know 18 months so um but they other they're content creators out there there are paid Services they're they're they are backed by regression models by basy and statistics by all of this fancy stuff but one of the key rules to statistics and everything that you're seeing when you when you when you're paying for those Services is all just bunch of modeling which is all just a bunch of advanced statistics garbage in and garbage out and so since we're at week one there is officially no 2024 data I'm not hating on anybody who's modeling right now I think that is awesome but it's based off of previous years which is what I'm using to it's based off of if they're if their rookies is based off of college and yes there is a little bit of pre-season uh out there but that's a pro and a con that means that as if you're someone who is not paying for those expensive Services yes those Services they do a good job aggregating modeling and they will definitely help you out but those Services get better as the year gets on because they get more 2024 data so that being said a lot of what I'm doing and most people are doing are based off of last year and knowledge that we know which gets to this video if you want a straight up just list of players to choose that has no Nuance you know you can go to ESPN right you know ESPN has thousands of lists they have all their analysts and I'm not I'm not Shilling for ESPN I'm singing to the biggest place I mean who well who else does it Roto wire you can go any of those places and you can just get a list what I am offering you I played fantasy football not DFS wasn't around I don't think I played fantasy football for over 20 years way back to the days of Yahoo and I have played DFS for over six years so you're getting a lot of DFS and fantasy football experience which means there's going to be some Nuance I'm not just going to you know just give you the top five that's just kind of obvious there might be some picks in there where you might say Walter that's kind of crazy but once again if you want just a straight up and down list just go to ESPN all right so the way this is going to work out for week one I am going to give you my top five quarterbacks I'm going to give you my top five running backs my top five R receivers top five tight ends and top five defensive players so this list I'm giving you is kind of based off of you were someone if you were just submitting one lineup or if you were going into like a single entry because we know that your thought process if you're if you're submitting 5 10 15 20 25 lineups then you can be more Loosey Goosey right right so a lot of what I'm doing is like if you were just really handb building you know one or two lineups so uh there's a little less risk in here than if you were doing 20 to 25 lineups or something like that all right so let's get to my top five quarterbacks and look I am not going to get too tricky when it comes to my favorite quarterback because when it comes to quarterbacks once again you have to separate the team from the quarterback we don't care how bad the team is and actually a lot of times if a team is bad and they're from and they always chasing and you know losing and behind in in points then they're actually going to have to throw the ball more so when you are looking for your quarterback you're looking for um you're looking for a quarterback that's playing a team that is actually a high-powered offense because your quarterback is going to have to catch up and keep up and pass that quarterback uh obviously you're looking for a quarterback who's on the team that doesn't have this traditional you know Bell cow you know running back that's going to basically get still all of the touchdowns uh you know at the goal line or something like that so that is why Josh Allen is so expensive and why he is so awesome he is going to be at home that's obviously great HomeField Advantage is real he's going to be in a shootout uh against Kyler Murray um he is someone that vultures you hate Josh Allen when you have a a buffalo running back because he will vulture a touchdown but if he is your quarterback that is a good thing and then we have CJ stoud of the Texans are going to uh Indianapolis and CJ Stout we saw how he played last year he can't sneak up on anyone this year he is the second uh most expensive quarterback and that is for good reason so number three my third favorite quarterback is the other side of that shootout Kyler Murray Kyler Murray is um I was gonna say he's a smaller version of Josh Allen but that'll be that that's I'm not even gonna go there but like Josh Allen he is a rushing quarterback so he can get you some fantasy points on the feet and not just throwing the ball and he gets some salary savings over some of the other quarterbacks that are ahead of him and then we're going to go lower into the 6000s and we're going to go with Trevor Lawrence he is have he's going to have to go south into his own state to play the Dolphins once again another situation where it's going to be a high-scoring game he's going to have to keep up with the Miami Dolphins and then you have Kurt Cousins he is going to be at home uh the crowd is going to be behind him um we're assuming that he is all good from injury and one thing I love about Kurt he is not going to vulture anything he is going to Dink and dunk uh the ball to some of his other players which gets to my top running backs yes if you are going with Kurt Cousins and you're doing a falcon stack there is no way on God's screen Earth that you can't go with bejon that you will can fade bejon Robinson I mean the guy's explosive uh the Falcons have a new coach um Arthur Smith I hate that guy uh Arthur Smith just didn't use bejn Robinson uh how um we a lot of us saw him when he played at Texas and how we expected to use him he's not going to have that same issue uh he's going to have a better quarterback and I wouldn't be surprised if he has a Kamar like role which you can see at number five and then Jonathan Taylor he's been doing this for years he's going to continue to do that he's going to get those 20 touches a game yes he's very expensive but nine times out of 10 he is worth it and then when you're looking for PPR and as most of you all know points per reception DraftKings uh is a PPR format so Rashad white and Alvin chimra and bejon Robinson what makes them get so many fantasy points is as we know in the past five to 10 years these quarterbacks will just show the will just throw these screen passes or five yard passes and boom all of a sudden they get 1.5 points that happens 10 times in the game throw in a touchdown and all of a sudden your player has 22 23 fantasy points Rashad white was one of the most consistent running backs in the NFL last year and then hn I don't care what the death chart says I don't care about mool if you have eyeballs in your head and if you watch any Dolphins game last year you can see the hn was one of the fastest most amazing running backs we have seen in a long time I don't care if he's third on the depth chart when he comes in there we know what's about to happen and then old man from a football perspective Kamara is still hanging in there with as a PPR monster at number five all right so we go on to the wide receivers and we're going to stick with those filthy Saints you know I'm a Falcons fan but I can put my hatred of the Saints aside to play some of their players so definitely my favorite wide receiver is alive uh for the Saints at 6600 so we got to talk about the wide receivers so uh he is definitely he's probably what alive is probably like the 12th most ex uh most uh expensive wide receiver so there's some wide receivers in front of him you know we have uh we have CD lamb and we know that um he hasn't played much because of contract uh situations so that makes me nervous uh we have Tyreek Hill he has the questionable Mark at this point so that makes me nervous uh Jefferson does not have a proven Sam Darnell is his quarterback I know Jefferson is a dog and a beast but that does not make me feel warm and fuzzy and make me want to play 8,400 we know Jamar Chase once again another person with contract issues and uh Adams man he's playing for the Raiders uh no um you see I do have up here number two I do have Evans once again uh I do like his situation he always finds the end zone he always gets those points per reception so he is my second favorite quarterback same thing with Pitman at number three at 68 00 and then we got the big body DK medf a dog I mean this guy it'll snatch that that uh ball out the air he'll get you the PPR he's going to get those contested throws so definitely I'm still high on medcap and look okay my fifth pick you got to have some value I mean if you're going to put all these studs in your lineup you know DraftKings has something called a salary cap so you can't just put Evans and Allen and you know bejn Robinson it's going to you're going to get into the red so you're going to have to make some decisions so no I don't feel warm and cuddly about Johnson but we have seen what Deontay Johnson can do and most of his career he has not had good quarterbacks so I would argue that Bryce young isn't any more terrible than any other quarterbacks he had in Pittsburgh and I will say that Johnson will have a less competition you could say Walter that means that the defenses are going to hone in on Johnson I'm aware of that that's why he's 5300 and that's why he's number five on my list all right so tight end so it makes me very nervous to go with Trey McBride but if you are doing a Arizona stack I can understand why you'll go with him he was amazing at the end of last year once again he has a good matchup we know they're going up against Buffalo so he is 6,100 definitely if you're doing that Atlanta Falcon stack uh you have Pitts once again he's at home so if you're doing that cousins London Robinson you know kind of Stack you're going to definitely have pits in there and then at number three we have Schultz CJ Stout yes CJ Stout has a lot of targets he has a lot of miles to feed No Doubt so yeah there is a situation where this game you know maybe because of Jonathan Taylor slowing it down and Schultz does not get his opportunity but anytime you have a quarter a Young quarterback that good his tight end is always a good decision and then K Kade you know great quarterback we know the the drawback of kingcade or anybody on Buffalo not named Josh Allen is Josh Allen is the Pac-Man you know how Pac-Man will gobble up all of those little pellets we know that Josh Allen is liable to take off from the 11 yard line and score that touchdown on his own and then we have Josh Oliver so we know that hakushin is not going to be playing so it's either going to be Oliver or Mt and right now they're saying Oliver Once Again Sam darnold does not make me feel warm and cuddly on the inside but see what I said when it comes to the wide receivers you are going to have to have some value players in there and there are worse value players at tight end than Josh Oliver all right let's go to the defenses and let me tell you something don't overthink the defenses if you haven't if you haven't learned this already just know that defenses are mostly matchup based especially early in the year when we don't have a lot of Statistics so definitely my favorite defense are Seattle at 3,400 they're at home and they're playing Denver and we know Denver's quarterback situation and then we have the Bears also at home I mean home defenses I mean there's a lot of Statistics out there showing that one of the things you do want to look up in the matchup is whether they're playing at home or on the road obviously at home you can tell the crowd to shut up and the crowd can shush and it can allow the defense versus what you have um a lot of times on the road and then we have uh the bangal at home against P the Patriots and we know that the Patriots this these aren't these aren't Bill bich Patriots from 5 years ago or we can say these are not Tom Brady's Patriots all snap from five years ago and then at number four we're going to go with the Vikings defense it's the only Road team that I'm picking and then for the value savings another home team with those Falcons so let me know your thoughts feel free to leave any comments but otherwise go out there and win that