hey good morning everyone today is September 8th and we're going to do a quick report here on the lion fire it's burning down in San Bernardino County and we're going to also take a look at the Davis fire which took off uh in ranot parallel to Highway 395 between um was Lake and Mount Rose Highway don't have a ton of fresh Intel for either but um going to give you what we got uh if you want to see a kind of um a broadscale view of the blindfire Pyro geography um fire history and topography and other interesting things that will affect the fire spread check out the video we did last night with Tim Chavez um it's got some good info in it um today's video sponsored by qac qac Shar and Chico they make um Fire Equipment they make cool slipin pumps and other um stuff if you want to do some prescribed burning on your own property or have the capacity to do some firefighting on your property if you have happen to start a fire or um have one coming at you Q Talk's good stuff okay so last night when we talked to Tim or yesterday afternoon the fire was still uh this is the lion fire and the lion fire is burning down here all these yellow dots are or structures and we throw that on there so you can see kind of basically where the threat is um of this fire getting to if it gets to Lake Arrowhead up here where's tons of homes or if it might make its way to Big Bear Lake which is quite always still out to the east down here is San Bernardino Highland and um menone Redlands over here so what happened yesterday with the fire was it started off the day kind of down here uh low and it was like 7,000 acres and then um it really kind of exploded in size um in the afternoon and then it punched up a a pyrocumulus cloud which is kind of like a big Thunderhead and in part um that pyrocumulus caused some rain and so right when the fire was um pushed up here towards Running Springs and this imagery is from 11:00 last night um you know fire running in heavy fuels that haven't burned for a long time right up towards this highly populated area and then it rained um and so that really tamped down fire behavior on that particular run so we don't really know what's happened since then on the um fire spread up towards Running Springs the webcams are largely smoked in this morning but the bad news of yesterday is that the fire did jump the Santa Ana River so we talked with Chavez yesterday about about scenarios here he said you know that that would that was a wild card is that if the fire became well established on this side of the river um it just becomes that much more difficult to contain um in the big picture the here we're looking at Angelus Oaks and Highway 38 coming down to Mountain Home Village we talked yesterday about the vulnerability of these two communities just being kind of midslope in the canyons and U but if the Fire gets to there um we talked about this is the 2020 El Dorado fire here and that this will likely be a the fire will likely not push very far into this so at least on this end um San gonio Mountain here everything else this side of the fires um Tim thought it'd be that the tankers should be a lot more effective in this young fuel here he said that this burned really hot four years ago and there's not a lot of fuel there yet that said there can always be grass burning in these um areas and they can still spread fire and like right now the tankers are smoked out on the fire um they can't operate right now because of you know the smoke until later in the day the tankers aren't going to probably be effective or actually flying at all on this fire in the Smoky areas so that's kind of where this fire lays um one of our viewers Vicky Lewis sent a video um that watch Duty posted that was um overnight of the um getting into the structures now What's called the qf start here we're going to work our way uh at the heel to the west and continue structure protection all the way past the structures here and then working into to the highway 330 Corridor we're okay so they're talking here about um that video shot right in here and the fire was getting down and pushing was coming right down to structures and so those um night flying helicopters were going to be basically um fighting the fire all the way along this lower Edge over to the 330 and so that video was shot uh last night at 8:00 p.m. have a busy night uh with the qrf end of recording qrf is quick reaction force that's um started off in Orange County but it's a kind of a a grouping of night flying helicop water dropping helicopters U there's not a lot of um a lot of the helicopters that work on Fires people aren't qualified to fly at night with night vision it's kind of a new thing and it kind of got pioneered in Orange County with this qrf which is a a group of contract helicopters that kind of have the supervision and equipment to do night drops and so Southern California's been doing night drops on Fires um for a long time it's just starting to roll out where they're starting to kind of um qualify a lot of the new calfire helicopters to fly night operations so that was at 8:30 this imagery was shot at 11: and you can see at that time the fire had not pushed really into any structures here in kind of North Highlands East Highlands sorry so the good news on this far so far is just that for being in Southern California where you've got millions of people living it for all it spread yesterday it's hard to find somewhere in Southern California where you can burn 16,000 acres and not burn structures uh at least like in this part of the world here right so actually there's lots of Wildland in Southern California but uh just saying that so far so good on structures and they dodged the bull here the bad news is just that there's not a lot of great places for them to engage the fire as it moves here towards Lake Arrowhead there not supposed to be any big winds here um in the next two days the problem is that in our Outlook um so we've got a lot of fire established in places that are hard to fight fire it's supposed to be hot and dry um kind of extremely dry and hot and so the conditions aren't very conducive to them controlling this fire in the next two days and then we're going to have a pattern change and the weather's going to change to um it's going to cool way off and part of that is that this high pressure that's sitting over the whole West Coast is going to relax low pressure is going to move through and when that does we'll go back to more of an onshore flow which is our typical winds blowing in off the ocean but um right as that happens we're going to have some strong Northeast and south or Northwest and Southwest winds so um generally those are going to be Amplified through this Canyon of the sanan river and there's potential for the fire push hard towards Big Bear Lake now the the good news is that those winds aren't going to last for very long and they're going to be followed by an onshore flow which is moist and so we're looking at this big cool down next week um Tuesday into Wednesday and so it says temperatures remain 10 to 20 degrees above normal through Monday with the 80s to low 90s across the mountains and upper 90s to 112 in The Valleys um scattered showers are going to be the wild card for us but we've got these Southwest to Northwest winds 20 to 30 with gust to 50 surface across the mountain ridges and desert passes Tuesday afternoon and through Wednesday night so this is the problem minimum humidity is staying super low um straight through it's going to cool off but we're going to have widespread single digigit humidities on Tuesday ahead of this these big winds so we got multiple kind of watch out situations stacking up for weather and we've got a fire that's U really well established with a lot of fuel ahead of it in an area that doesn't have a lot of fire history so if we look at our fire history here um this area all burned in 1970 so it's the fuels are as if no fire had happened at all um some of it burned 2003 old fire and we looked at the fuels from that yesterday that's not they're not going to there there's nothing about the fire history in this area headed out towards uh Big Bear to protect it from uh a recent fire or from there's nothing about the fire history between this fire and Big Bear that going to reduce the fire spread um like we said out here off to the um to the east we got the 2020 elderado which will keep this side of the fire contained but this um fire is not going to burn like crazy necessarily except for the influence of the thunderstorms over the next two days but then when we get that um frontal passage the trough moving in Tuesdays are real there's potential Tuesday for really major growth on this fire um the fact that the predicted winds are going to be coming from a generally Westerly condition makes it less of a critical threat to Lake Arrowhead when this does decide if it does decide to blow up one problem we could have is if the fire continues to spread out into here um those strong Westerly winds could push the fire into Running Springs from the West um Tuesday into Wednesday so the firefighters have got tough Shore it's Smoky right now with the still with no wind so that's bad for air tankers um then we've got thunderstorms in the afternoons that are a real wild card that could either put the fire out or the downdrafts from those could blow the fire in all kinds of unpredictable um directions so as far as like in where the firefighters can safely engage in the afternoon um the thunderstorms are are kind of a huge wild card and this as we talked about yesterday just this is really dramatic country rising from down here near 12200 ft up to here uh which is 6,000 ft uh Google Earth doesn't really do this justice but it's um this is incredible kind of it's some very Steep and rugged country so that's all to say just that um this fire Bears watching and through Wednesday There's a an kind of a very high risk of this fire doing big things okay so we're going to jump in now to um go look at the Davis fire flying North and our magic flying map I got an assistant here he saying what Aaron Babcock's looking for fire history um I'll send you something Aaron um if you're not Aaron um and you're looking for fire history data um check out Google California fire history KML kml's the secret um it will take you to some right here that you can and download the data right here California fire perimeters KML um there you go uh KML is what you used to load them into Google Earth Google Earth Pro um someone says how much are those singled digit relative humidities at departure from normal that's a good question let me show you another site that's great while we're at it um check out um raw's weather stations map that will give you [Music] a map to fire weather stations and if we look at mil Creek California you can look at this historic data I'll put the um link here in the chat and um what's cool here is you can actually do some really cool stuff with the frequency distribution histogram you can get super technical here and um you can load up the data and go back as far as it goes this one goes back to 98 and you can say you want your relative humid [Music] and I can't remember exactly what you do I I had to mess around with this but um you can pick a time period which is cool you can say like I want to look at September for the last um what 25 years and then you you click on there and it thinks for a while and it'll kick kick you back we'll see if it loads us something but um all right if you're waiting for the Davis fire sorry for the detour into fire weather we'll we'll get back to the RH stuff okay so here we are up by Reno here's Reno here's Lake Tahoe here's Carson City and we've got Highway 395 uh used to be now I guess they call it 580 uh I'm old down through wasow Lake and this fire started yesterday and um screamed its way North in a really this is you know we talk about this kind of typical U fire weather creating like these feather-shaped fires when they're driven by wind and this fire ripped through not a super populated area but it was headed for um a lot of homes up by Mount Rose highway I don't know what it's done this was shot last night yesterday like last night and on the webcams you can see the fire kind of um petered out in the middle of the night it did go through an area here that has a bunch of homes off of um my road names anyway so the webcam show it slung down we don't have any new data I do have some friends that live up in here um this is a tough job graphy for fire because um it can kind of come from it's the desert things move fast and so you can get fires that's scream down this way when you have a strong northwesterly or you can get fires you know it's just that's the problem of the desert and this area in particular is um high winds light flashy fuels fires Hall they just they scream across this landscape and so these are places where if you live you really need to work on your um structure structure ignitability you know if you Google um ways there's a lot of there's great literature from Nevada fire safe Council on how to reduce structure ignitability and it's a lot of small things like your vents it's like your deck it's like not having anything burnable within 5T of your house the problem is that these fires move so fast there's not enough fire engines for every house and so your house needs to be able to stand alone and so um we'll we'll post some uh if we get a new perimeter for this and see where it got to we'll post that on Twitter um we don't have much more to tell you about it except that it ran u a goodly distance here ran four miles four and a half miles in a very short amount of time and as far as the um heat satellites might have something a little newer it's hard in this country with the heat satellites because the grass fires go out so quick that um often times the satellites there's not much heat for them to pick up so this perimeter is newer than heat satellites all right so I just wanted to look at a couple other things here for okay here's your um someone asked about relative humidity for um Milk Creek so for San Bernardino and um this can't be right so oh here you go yeah so it gives you the r the he the relative humidity range and the percentage of time that it hangs out in there and so if you have time to sort through all this stuff um you can see that like it'll give you the range and average I think for each time a day so so for the person who asked about the relative humidity and departure for normal here's your resources check out that website play with the histogram here and you'll get a table that actually shows the stuff this is not quite exactly what I was going to show you but check out that website get techy okay so just wanted to look at uh on the line fire at the fire Behavior forecast for today from the team it says um 25 to 40% chance of thunderstorm with the radic winds and down strikes possible mostly sunny then becoming partly cloudy areas of smoke in the morning chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon temperatures near 100 at lower elevations mid 90 and upper elevations humidity in the low 20s across the fire winds south and east 5 to six miles an hour except Gusty and erratic near thunderstorms and they say the big problem is the complex terrain uh Little Mill Creek F Alba Creek and San River um sign they Channel significant air flow and these will increase fire movement across the landscape when the wind the lines of slope expect firey Behavior to increase in spread fuels are dead and dry uh lots of dead and down fuels and thunderstorm outflows anyway also they say Smoke's going to limit air operations through midday but could clear by 1 to two in the afternoon fire in the Santa and River drainage may be influenced by ch handling wins all right so there you go um we expect you know we we'll look at um like we said before there's just not a lot of great um topography here for Fire Control there are like doer lines on a lot of these ridges that have been pushed in pass fires but um as we know um it's all about this these thunderstorms and if we have um Gusty winds and also these these doer lines it they don't always hold if you don't have Crews there to fire them out or um prep them anyway steep nasty country [Music] and it's about all we got was there anything else here to show y'all uh want to look at the we got the kind of overnight Heat Satellite and it just kind of shows that the fire did stay active and when we look at the um spread on the webcams you can't see a lot going on there's a lot of webcams down here and if you want to check those out um check them out all right yeah thanks everyone appreciate the support if you want to support this channel go check out um look out.org uh we don't have anything new on there for the last couple weeks as far as U features but we've got a lot of stuff on here uh from our previous fire coverage including some good stuff uh interviews with people stuff we've done with um some media appearances and uh some great storytelling from people like Jim Clump so um if you're just checking us out for the first time check out our website and also consider becoming a sub a subscriber if you um if you like this kind of information you can subscribe we'll send you a newsletter occasionally and um your donations help uh keep this whole thing running and good shout out to um Tim Tim Chavez was on our show yesterday and um sorry I have to see ads too um but check out the YouTube um for for Tim Chavez and you'll learn something promt