Overall Setup we have the coolest air mass of the season on the way so far across the Central and Eastern 2/3 of the US plus we'll be watching two areas of disturbed weather across the Gulf of Mexico that will likely impact the Gulf Coast regions over the coming days so let's start off with the satellite picture this morning we can see that area of disturbed weather that's highlighted with an area of low pressure across the Gulf of Mexico we're seeing some morning convection and we'll see be seeing a lot more convection as we kind of Bubble Up that atmosphere In the Heat of the day but we are mainly concerned across this region this is the area that I mainly highlighted where we're going to be seeing numerous showers and thunderstorms over the coming days especially the closer to the Gulf Coast you live and here is the cool front that's going to be coming southbound it's right now it's highlighted across Minnesota and portions of Wisconsin that is going to be diving South Southeast in the coming days really dropping those temperatures and bringing some actually some really nice especially in the morning temperatures those temperatures going to be dropping but there is the low pressure that's highlighted across the Gulf of Mexico right now it's a,2 mbar it's going to be slowly shifting out into the open Waters of the gulf and we're going to be concerned about some very heavy rain that's going to be producing if not flash flooding rains with flood watches highlighted across the coast here's another area of disturbed weather that's highlighted for the you know the National Hurricane Center you know has a low probability of this trying to develop and of course there is your initial cool front that's going to be diving southbound and there's the ridge of high pressure that's been really baking for those areas across the West we've got more excessive heat taking place today in fact here is the hazard map from the National Weather Service we've got numerous excessive heat warnings baking those regions across Phoenix and Las Hazard Map Vegas getting it even into Los Angeles you're going to be getting a 100 degrees today but you can see the heat advisories extend all the way up along the along into California even into Washington and Oregon those areas across even in Oregon are going to be seeing those excessive heat warnings today with that very high humidity values further to the South there's the green that is your flood watches compliments of that low pressure center that's going to be highlighted across the gulf and then yes you do have some heated advisor just because of all the rain Florida has gotten lately especially yesterday for those areas like in Tampa and Jacksonville they saw a day lug of thunderstorms in fact at one point you had 3.8 in per hour rainfall rates highlighted across Tampa but there is the significant change that's going to be taking place you've got those well above average temperature anomalies highlighted across those areas the sex of sex of heat warnings and the heat advisories across those regions you can see the Leading Edge of that initial cool front that's been highlighted across the South and that stalled frontal boundary will have a brief little warmup but then that secondary push is already building across Southern Canada those areas into Wisconson as getting into um you know Minnesota this morning but over the next two days all eyes are going to be further south as well with that area of low pressure center that I talked about and National Hurricane Center doesn't actually even have this highlighted I'm you know you kind of flustered by that because I do feel this at least needs to be kind of highlighted because the some models are kind of trying to spin up this to be First Gulf Disturbance some sort of maybe even tropical system as it's right you know right along the coastal regions I mean it's September so you kind of watch everything but nonetheless whether it forms or not it really doesn't matter it's just the the intense rainfall that it's going to be producing especially along the coast and especially when you're picking up rainfall rates anywhere from two to possibly upwards to three Ines per hour that can add up pretty quickly so that's one of the reasons why the weather prediction center has these areas highlighted across Victoria down here into Galveston uh all the way into New Orleans with very heavy r rain so this swath of red here we could be picking up yes anywhere from 6 8 maybe even some eyes seted areas of 12 Ines of rain is likely not out of the question those places like New Orleans and D those areas could be inundated with that low pressure center just right off the coast and you've got some of the highest sea surface temperatures out there into the Gulf of Mexico but even into Florida today even with Tampa getting all that heavier rain yesterday down in to Jacksonville you're going to get more of it today probably not as much but still adding to those flood concerns adding to those heat indices especially with all the the water saturated soils in that atmosphere all it takes is heating up that atmosphere to Bubble Up that atmosphere In the Heat of the afternoon and producing those very intense rainfall rates and as the low pressure center continues to shift a little bit closer to Louisiana that likely takes Texas out of play on Friday with the heavier rainfall rates and shifting it more into Louisiana down here towards Southern portions of Mississippi getting into Alabama especially those areas into the Florida Panhandle by then getting into SouthEast Georgia so if we sum it up as we take a look at the water vapor imagery heading into tomorrow you can see these deeper darker darker Reds right that is indicative of us that area of low pressure trying to get its together and maybe trying to get a low-l Center trying to form right off the south south coast of Louisiana so we'll be watching this area but definitely a lot of convection across these areas especially the further along the coast you live but you can see the convection it's going to be a long get in this in this cool front very light convection the further south you go the further north you go a little bit more instability to work with those those areas are going to be highlighted you know for a little bit higher wind gust with those some may maybe some downburst winds and some definitely some heavier rainfall rates as you swing through areas of Ohio back into Pennsylvania and areas into New York but if you break it down over the next 48 hours this is what I'm really concerned about these these high resolution guidances now this is offshore that's a that's a print of 27 in folks it goes to show you the amount of water content available with this little low pressure center so all that does has to do is to move just to 50 miles further north and you could be inundated with intense extreme flash flooding so even right now we do have that moderate risk for excessive flooding especially along the coastal regions into Louisiana but if you live anywhere into the galston region the bont Port Arthur region uh the Lake Charles getting into New Orleans uh gulport Mississippi those you have to be at high alert for some very heavy rain and flash flooding over the next two days and that will only extend into the Florida Panhandle Northern portions of Florida getting into southeastern Georgia as well as into Southern Mississippi but yeah I mean this is the latest HR guidance folks I mean with the winds slowly increasing so yeah I wouldn't actually be surprised this is could actually a quick spin up storm you know with this system over the next 48 hours uh so we'll be definitely watching this and we'll have a full update on it tomorrow but right now the latest high resolution guidance actually brings this down to a 996 millibar low pressure from the 1012 it is this afternoon so yeah these areas of it's obviously been really quiet down here in the Tropic so we'll definitely be watching this area whether it forms or not it doesn't really matter it's just the intense rainfall that it's going to produce is definitely a certainty and as we move forward we'll be watching that cooler shot of air coming in from Canada really going to be Stronger Cold Front building with this trough digging in and this is going to be a fairly significant if not stronger coolfront for this time of year and the big change is going to be felt by many especially for those areas across the Ohio Valley getting into the Mid-Atlantic down in the Tennessee Valley definitely by far the cool EST temperatures of the season so by Saturday morning you're going to start seeing the beginning effects of that cooler shot of air and you can see the Leading Edge of there extending into Kentucky into Arkansas getting into North Texas by by Saturday morning and that will only continue further south as we head into Sunday morning as you're really going to be seeing those temperatures drops back into the 50s and widespread 40s across this region and then even getting down in the 60s the further south you live as well so you're going to be definitely feeling the big impacts from this cooler shot of air and these are some actual low temperatures that will likely unfold as we head into Sunday morning time frame as you wake up into the 40s and 50s as far south as the you know Missour Missouri getting into Kentucky even into into the Tennessee Valley region what well into the you know 50s even some you know upper 40s for Oklahoma City and then going into the low 60s into the Dallas Warth region by far into streetport 61 degrees Yeah you haven't seen that so far this summer and it's a a nice change of the you know the change in Seasons that we're now getting these cooler shots of air is definitely a a welcome site for many especially after a very warm you know summer for especially for those areas across the West Coast unfortunately you don't really get into this action of the major pattern change that's unfolding you stay under that heat dome but you can see by the time we head into Monday morning this cooler shot of air drifts all the way down into the deep south in fact I think this coolfront gets into the Gulf of Mexico folks yes I think it actually gets into the Gulf of Mexico again highlighted here and yes that definitely puts more areas back into Florida into play with more heavy rain but also we'll be watching an area of disturbed weather that we've been talking about for many days in fact I looked it's been 11 days folks since the Second Gulf Disturbance National Hurricane Center has highlighted this little yellow shaded area first highlighted right here that's all the way down into the Caribbean now and it still has that 30% chance of probability of forming but the this is the one we're May concerned about I mean we've got four lemons out here into the Atlantic and they all have a 30% or less probability of forming but this is the one that we're mainly concerned about as this area of disturbed weather that will likely be getting into the southern Gulf of Mexico by the time we reach on Monday linking up with that coldfront that's going to be already stalled into the Gulf of Mexico so we could be looking at more of a Deja Vu type setup again for those areas especially along the coast right Victoria galeston you know those bont Port author that you know Lake Charles getting into New Orleans Florida Panhandle gulport Mississippi I mean all those areas will likely be inundated back into the very heavy rain swath that could unfold with this new area of disturbed weather that's going to be linked into the Gulf of Mexico and you can definitely see that we've got the drier cooler push coming in from the north and that's depicted along this brown this brown shaded area very dry air and then of course it's completely the opposite once you get into that moist more unstabled air just very heavy rain especially just along these coastal regions so we'll be having to watch that system as well and this is Tuesday Morning look at all the dry air that comes back behind that cool front that's one of the reasons why we're going to be sinking so low at night and in the mornings because of that because of you know radiational cooling the clear skies the light winds will allow those temperatures to cool off and a big way and we're going to be having a look again for these areas that's going to be getting heavier rain again so if you break it down over the next seven days it kind of looks like this so yes you got some very eyes seted range with these with with a cooler shot of air the heavier rains are going to be mainly concentrated across you know you know Wisconsin getting into Michigan a little bit higher amounts as you head into Pennsylvania uh New York but of course further south with the two areas of disturbed weather combined yes we're talking those areas from Brownsville to Victoria to to uh you know galston to to to Lake Charles getting to New Orleans all these areas along the coast definitely have to be concerned about major flash flooding that could unfold not just with that first system over the next 48 hours but with even that second system that comes in Monday and Tuesday of next week so these areas are going to be extremely saturated by the time we hit Wednesday of next week so guys I appreciate you guys watching do like this video definitely hit the Subscribe button and catch my next update why I protect you before and after the storm