South Carolina Primary Prediction Results

understanding America's presidential election process is incredibly complicated and it's on purpose it makes it so that the powers that be are able to maneuver things in ways that they see fit in order to supposedly suppress the will of the people and the voters but that's not entirely the case actually it's more due to the fact that here in the United States we have a very decentralized form of voting that our Founders essentially created which has made even more more complicated by the fact that we have a large two-party apparatus the Republican and Democratic parties that have huge influence over how these elections are held so today I'm just going to walk you through some of those examples and hopefully by the end of it you'll have a good idea of how our election process works and this is all going to be very timely because come this week is the last hopefully big primary for the Republican Party between Donald Trump and Nikki Haley in South Carolina so let's take a step back and guys obviously if you're not following my channel already you should be make sure to subscribe like the video share it with your friends because I doubt most of them also understand how our election process here in America works and of course if you're not from America just like Putin said who also said our election process is very complicated hopefully this will give you a good background a good idea of how this stuff works so obviously in the political process you have various candidates who are running against each other and you have what are called primaries primaries are obviously when Republicans need to be running against each other to see see who the Republican nominee is going to be and same for the Democratic side but this election year here in 2024 has shown just how intricate the system works and how complicated it can be so we're going to start with the first primary for the Republicans at least which was Iowa so here's the first thing you need to note there are primaries and there are caucuses what's the difference a primary is what most people are familiar with where you simply just go to your election site normally a local school or a local church and vote via pen and ballot of who you want to be the primary winner and then those votes are counted up and then supposedly in a complicated manner the person who gets the most of those votes is awarded the winner of that primary but caucuses are slightly different the way the Iowa caucus works and other caucuses work is that actually a bunch of people get together in a room and through vocal support have different candidates surrogates debating in those rooms about why people for should choose to award those people those delegates it's actually a very active way of voting in a primary or voting in for whoever the next party is going to be the next Party candidate for the next presidential election because you have all all these people in the room deciding right then and there who they should award the delegates to and it's very active because a lot of times the votes are just taken on by voice and so in Iowa you have different groups of people essentially saying okay well the majority of the people in this room have said yay for example Donald Trump and so we are going to award our delegates to Donald Trump in this caucus but where it gets even more complicated is different states can determine how those C Cates how those electoral votes how those people are awarded to the primary candidate sometimes it's proportional which means if you get 70% of the vote you get 70% of those delegates but sometimes it's not and sometimes it's a win or takeoff scenario where if you get over 51% of the delegate delegates in that primary or caucus allocated to you then you get the whole bunch of delegates so it's a win or take all strategy Iowa was proportional which is why you had both Nikki Haley and the other third candidate who is now Ronda santis get some delegates from the Iowa primary because it was proportional it was a proportional caucus an Iowa caucus see even I it's hard to tell because I keep uh confusing the terms primary and caucus but Iowa was a caucus so then we go down to on the Democratic side we kind of learn a lesson about the strength of the part so let me back up so that is that is the big difference between a caucus and a primary and the Iowa caucus is what Iowa had uh and that was how voters were actually deciding who the primary candidate was going to be was through essentially enclosed room meetings with different Power Players shouting who they wanted to vote for until everyone came to a consensus now on the Democratic side it's actually very interesting it's mostly the same but here's where it gets fascinating here's where we learn about the Dynamics between the party itself and the state so the state is the one that is supposed to determine when the primary or the caucus is held and so each state legislature says because it takes State resources to host these what date in the year they are going to be holding their primary or their caucus for their respective parties the DNC and the RNC give those States essentially a schedule and say your state is allowed or your State's party is allowed to schedual elections during this time of year and so for example for the RNC they said all states must make their primary elections or their caucuses after March 6 except for Iowa New Hampshire and South Carolina and Nevada and that's how they ensure those are the first three to four states to have their primaries or caucuses held to kind of Garner influence but you can have circumstances like with the DNC where that's upended so traditionally with the DNC New Hampshire is the first primary State and that's how it's been for a very long time and so the New Hampshire legislature has it in their legislation that New Hampshire is always going to be the first state in the primary process for the DNC but this got complicated because at the time about six months ago Robert F Kennedy Jr was actually leading in New Hampshire and the DNC did not want that so they moved in a historic decision to have the first primary State not be New Hampshire but to be South Carolina but New Hampshire had their primary anyway so what is that mean well the DNC said that New Hampshire was going to be sanctioned going to be punished for doing this and so the New Hampshire primary even though Biden won does not get any delegates awarded to the dnc's National Convention at least for now when I'm making this video the DNC can change that since RFK Jr is no longer a member of the democratic party so he wasn't on the list but that shows you the dynamic so the DNC can essentially take any State's delegates and say well you disobey party rules so your delegates no longer count so that's exactly what happened and currently if you voted in the New Hampshire primary you if you voted for Biden as of right now those delegates do not matter because the DNC is punishing New Hampshire for hosting the election anyway this happened with Republicans in Nevada a lot of people may wonder why were there two elections held in Nevada and this is where the difference between the state as a Authority and the party as an authority really become known so the party in Nevada that is currently under control or the party that currently controls the Nevada state legislature is the Democratic party the Democratic party decided that in Nevada they were going to just be hosting a overall primary and they changed the date and the way the election was hosted the Republican National Convention in the Republican party of Nevada did not agree with these rule changes so by law the Nevada state has a date in which they're going to be hosting their primary elections but the RNC and the Republican party of Nevada have stated well we're just not going to obey state law and do our own thing and the RNC is not recognizing the Nevada state primary so that's why you had two elections you had a one approved by the RNC and the Republican party of Nevada in which Trump was on the ballot but Nikki Haley only registered for the state primary and so that is why Nikki Haley was on one ballot for the state primary and Trump was not and funny enough Nikki Haley still lost to none of the above in that state primary as opposed to the Nevada RNC caucus which only had Trump well it had Trump and a few others on the ballot actually but Trump one handily so then the Nevada delegates were awarded to Trump this process is really interesting because the parties themselves are not in the Constitution they are parallel government organizations they're parallel systems so the RNC and the DNC working with States hopefully in conjunction with one another organize our electoral processes but when states start start to not do what either big party wants the big party processes can actually affect what those states are able to do that gets really interesting because if there are unfavorable candidates from a certain state or a certain state is disobeying what the RNC or the DNC want they can simply change the rules in the system to negate what that state once in Georgia Georgia was trying to have an earlier Dem Democratic primary for the Democratic party and the Georgia Democratic party wanted this but the Georgia legislature is controlled by Republicans and the Republicans decided they were not going to allow Georgia to change the date in which the primary was held so it looks like the DNC simply just did not allow the the Democratic party of Georgia to host its own kind of primary much like with the example in Nevada where the RNC simply said you know what forget what the state wants we're doing our own thing another layer of complexity comes from how the delegates are awarded in each state in some states you have a winner take all system which we briefly went over where whoever just simply wins the majority gets all the delegates for the state but you can also have processes where it simply is a proportional vote whereas if you get 70% of the total vote count you get 70% of the delegates and then you kind of have in between where you can have a win or take all at a local level where all of the delegates from a local area go to whoever got 51% or more of the vote count but then that means that if in another area a competing candidate gets 51% or more they will get all of their delegates to the point where it becomes kind of proportional but not completely and the state once again controls that so this leads us up to the South Carolina primary which is the third big or actually the fourth big primary for the RNC the Republicans now the Democrats have already had the South Carolina primary it was the first one for them Biden one handily for the Republicans it's looking to be Trump versus Haley and so far it looks like Trump will just do quite fine however South Carolina has an Open Primary process so what does that mean an Open Primary process means that anyone regardless of party can vote in the primary once that means if you're a Democrat you can vote in the you can vote for a republican in the South Carolina primary so what the South Carolina primary shows us is that even within the electoral process you have different forms of primary and some of them are closed primaries a closed primary is when only members of the party can vote which means if you're independent you're not allowed to vote for either Democrat or or republican which is why a lot of people in America purposefully register as Republican or Democrat because even if you are independent and don't align with either party you often want a choice in the primary in the primary process because as independent you don't necessarily get that Voice vote and so our electoral process here in the United States is very decentralized it's run by the states but it's also run in a parallel way by the party that means that in the State of Florida the state of Florida will determine when our primary is held but they do that with the work of the RNC the Republican National Committee and the Republican party of Florida as well as with the DNC and the Democratic party of Florida and if there is any disagreement along there it can have big consequences theoretically speaking if Florida goes Rogue and decides that well we just want to host something completely different the RNC can say okay well all the delegates from Florida no longer count in the uh delegates awarded to whoever is going to be the Republican primary's main presidential candidate the DNC can do the exact same thing much like they did in New Hampshire so when you span out our electoral process at least when it comes to elections is heavily riing upon State infrastructure but then also the party infrastructure Republican and Democratic parties the big question to ask is is this a good thing or is it a bad thing is it a good thing that we have these quasi governmental systems that have so much power over our election process like the RNC and the DNC and both the RNC and DNC can change their rules and in the case of the DNC you will see a lot of conversations about replacing Biden well after the elections happen even if Biden when he wins the primary election process if Biden were to drop out and simply say well I am no longer running the DNC will simply call us and choose who their next candidate is going to be which could be Biden's plan all along or which could be the Democratic plan all along is let Biden win every vote in the primary process and then choose whoever Biden successor will be once the DNC is holding its convention that way the DNC itself and the powers could easily control whoever the next Democratic nominee is going to be running for president they wouldn't have to leave it up to the will of the people or go through another primary process they could simply pick and choose and this would be the same for the RNC if Trump does end up going to jail then the RNC at their National Convention could simply elect who they believe is going to be the best fit for the next president to represent the Republican party and they could end up still choosing Donald Trump and he could end up running from prison uh and even winning an election from prison right uh but this shows you in the end that America's system is incredibly complicated and it's a lot of times why a lot of people don't really understand how it works and that benefits the people in power because it means they can maneuver and change things as they see fit and we the American people really don't know what's going on because there's so much information not just from the local rules that your local state party might have but then the National Party itself all down to the state legislature and the moves that are being made there hopefully this video gives you a better idea of how complicated and complex America's electoral process is how there are organizations that are not a part of our government that have a lot of influence over the elector process and how you can see differences and sometimes mishaps like two elections in Nevada or Rogue elections in New Hampshire that end up not counting thanks again for watching the video guys don't forget to hit the like button subscribe and share this with your friends