Speaker 1: Welcome everybody. Hope you are going
to have a good weekend. We have some really interesting video to take a look at today. One
of the pollsters that I have never been a fan of, but I do think occasionally has some interesting
insights. Is Frank Luntz. Frank Luntz has been widely considered, essentially a mouthpiece
for the right for a long time. But he doesn't have zero skill as a pollster. And sometimes
it is interesting to get his perspective, particularly when we know he has some kind of
stake in the game. Well, Frank Luntz appeared on CNBC earlier this week, and he said he is stunned
by what he is seeing in the reversal in enthusiasm since Joe Biden stepped aside and Kamala Harris
became the presumptive Democratic nominee. He says he has never seen anything like this in a 30 day
period within a campaign in his lifetime, in his entire career doing this. Let's take a listen
to what he had to say. And then let's think. Speaker 2: About polls in the presidential
race, showing the vice president and Harris gaining ground in some swing states and even
eroding some of the former President Trump's lead in Florida. Our next guest says
if the election were held today, she would win. Joining us right now is pollster and
political strategist Frank Luntz. That's a turn. It's more than that. That's a plot twist. Her.
Speaker 3: She's bringing out people who are not interested in voting for either Trump or Biden.
So the entire electoral pool has changed. And if it continues in this direction, you have
to start to consider Democrats winning the Senate and Democrats winning the House. The actual
people who are participating. She's got intensity now. She got an intensity advantage. She's got a
demographic advantage. And I haven't seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime.
Speaker 2: How big is that? That marginal extra voter that she's bringing in? I
mean, how much does that change the pool? Speaker 3: 1%. Maybe two.
Speaker 2: That's it. But that's enough, right. And I just ask you, though, about the
veracity, frankly, of the polls right now because you go back and look and there was interesting
report yesterday showing that if you look at where Donald Trump was in terms of what the what
the polling showed this back in 2016 undercounted, you go even in 2020 undercounted. And so, you
know, you start to think about the, you know, margin of error or situation where maybe
she's up, you know, 1 or 2%. But you know, is the Trump vote fully counted?
Speaker 3: But that's why my process is not just to do the numbers. It's also to do the focus
groups to listen, to understand why people feel this way. And now my groups are broken up by young
women saying, I'm not voting for him anymore. Make no mistake, there are three attributes.
Speaker 2: Three component. I think it's a switch. It's not because you
just said I'm not voting for them anymore. So you think they were
voting for Donald Trump? They were. And now they're voting for Harris.
Speaker 3: The people who are undecided. Speaker 2: Have all collapsed towards Harris.
Speaker 1: Okay, let's pause it there and you can find the full interview. And it's
interesting. First point, it is stunning how fast this turnaround has happened. It hasn't
even been a full month, I don't think. And in this month we have seen a failed assassination
attempt against Donald Trump already recede into the background after Joe Biden said I'm not
running support coalescing around Kamala Harris, with record fundraising and delegate support
being voiced a total reversal in the polls. And no one's talking about Joe Biden anymore. And the
fact that he stepped aside and it's been about a month or not even that. So there's two takeaways
here. Number one, things can change very quickly apparently. And number two, things could still
change very quickly between now and November. And that's the risk of saying wow the momentum
is behind Kamala Harris. And so that's inevitably going to be the way this lands. It may not it may
not. Now I want to say one other thing about these undecided voters. Or sometimes we might call them
sway able voters, gettable voters who are they are expressing a preference. I will probably vote
for this person, but depending on what happens, I might change my mind. Very often when I hear
about these undecideds, it really sounds like cagey Republicans who always vote Republican
and are definitely going to vote Republican. Although I am still skeptical in general of
how someone could truly be undecided at this point. If we reframe it to think more about sway
able or gettable voters, it does seem as though something different is going on, and that the
sort of lack of excitement for either candidate, while recognizing that Trump's a loser at the
end of the day and not someone you want to be in business with of any kind, including having him be
president, given the 20 years younger, brighter, more didactic and, and sort of dynamic. Kamala
Harris said, okay, it's no longer what feels like a sort of lose lose. And even if they are
independents or center right or whatever, they now have an option they can. Feel much more strongly
about it. And of course, the political donations that are flowing in behind Kamala Harris suggest
this is the case. So take him or leave him. As far as Frank Luntz is concerned, when you hear him
say, I've never seen anything like this in my lifetime, that is something. And it is something
we're going to continue watching very closely.