the Western Pacific is where the active atmosphere in the tropics is that we got half the globe that's active and upward motion the half the globe that we're in the Atlantic Basin is where the sinking is happening a lot of times these Global circulations you know get locked in for a little while even within an otherwise busy or expected to be busy season but it is remarkable how that pattern has been stuck in the recent weeks to the point where we haven't had a name storm at all since our nesto formed on the 12th of August and was no longer a hurricane on the 20th of August if you think this has been an unusual late August early September you're not dreaming so ran the numbers and the white lines this is the active era since 1995 how many storms in each year between August 21 after anesto went away and tomorrow September 4th we've never had zero until this year that's remarkable to go through those two weeks and not have any name storms in the active era we are in Uncharted territory however you we've had a lot of occasions where uh even if there's only been you know one or two storms in those two weeks the next two weeks have been really busy so uh it will be very remarkable if we go another couple weeks without a name storm which is at least within the realm of possibility however those conditions from the Pacific are likely at some point to move Eastward and I think the Atlantic Basin is still a ticking Time Bomb waiting for those favorable conditions to move in and once that happens this the the late part of the Season even part of this month could be very busy so an update I mean we could keep this quiet for another 10 days or so but that still puts us what midt and then when those favorable conditions we saw what the Eastern Pacific did I mean it did it did get going very very quickly and rapidly yeah and those conditions came into the Atlantic but they weren't as robust as what's out in the Pacific right now so even Colorado State University and Phil clal looking at this and they're putting out their latest twoe forecast just now and they're expecting given what we see right now globally within the season that the next couple weeks might stay below average for this time of year but they're still anticipating you know at some point after that things could get very busy and still end up way above average for the season do you think this could potentially set us up for an incredibly active October and even November it very well could because how much fuel is out there in the Atlantic Basin we don't have all that much wind shear we have the tropical wav we've got this warmer than average water that is just sitting there waiting for the activity to ramp up so the fuel is there as soon as those conditions come in from the Pacific we're going to forget about dust we're going to forget about Atlantic n all that stuff this could be a late loaded season so careful what you ask for if you're wondering where the hurricanes are