Was Ukraine Really Behind the Nord Stream Sabotage? An Analysis.

it was one of the murkiest moments in a war already full of them on September the 26th 2022 seismic monitors in Sweden recorded a series of powerful impact somewhere out in the Baltic Sea shortly afterwards a stream of bubble surface near the Danish island of Bourn Holm roing a large patch of water it didn't take long to find out the cause of these twin disturbances that evening far below the sea surface explosions had torn through the nordstream pipelines bringing gas from Russia to Germany three of the four pipelines had ruptured rendering them unusable coming at a time of extreme geopolitical tension the destruction of the nordstream pipelines generated no shortage of suspects Russia blamed the US and the UK claiming it was an attempt to deprive the Kremlin of energy Revenue Western officials by contrast blamed Russia noting that the sabotage had coincided with Moscow cutting off energy supplies to Europe as punishment for supporting Ukraine others pointed the finger at everyone from Ukrainian sabotage groups to the Polish governments which had long railed against German energy dependency on Russia in the near two years since the pipeline blasts multiple bodies have tried to solve the mystery Sweden and Denmark both investigated what the financial times calls the suspicious movements of Russian military vessels in the area only to drop their cases for lack of evidence journalists too have tried to get involved producing theories that have ranged from the plausible to the truly absurd yet in all that time no one seemed to get any closer to the real truth about what happens that September day that is until now in the sort of Blockbuster report for which the term bombshell is usually reserved The Wall Street Journal revealed on August the 14th the results of a long German Le investigation into the bombings Berlin's conclusion the destruction of the nordstream pipelines was ordered and overseen by the highest echelons of the Ukrainian government in other words the recipient of billions of Euros in German Aid is thought to have deliberately destroyed German energy infrastructure amazingly that's not even the most amazing part of the journal story in a Twisted tale that reads like something from a spy Thriller the article backed up by joint reporting in German Outlets like daite suggested that German Ally Poland may have helped the sabotage team involved Escape Justice if true this would likely represent the biggest internal crisis NATO has faced in decades it would also call into question German support for Ukraine at a time when Kev is trying to take the fight to Russia now we'll come on to the evidence for the journal's version of events later in the video for now though we want to just quickly sketch out what exactly the nordstream pipelines were and how they may come to have been viewed as legitimate military targets coming online in 2011 nordstream 1 was a pair of pipelines designed in the most basic sense to bring gas to Germany directly from Russia in a wider sense they were also supposed to help Tie The Fortunes of Moscow to Europe to integrate Russia into the continent and continue the trade through change policy Germany had started pursuing back in the Cold War now if all of this sounds relatively benign you should know the reality was extremely controversial Nations like Poland and Ukraine warned that Berlin was putting its energy Security in Russia's hands hands at the same time gas going far nordstream was gas not being pumped Overland through Ukraine's old pipelines denying ke of Transit fees worth billions of dollars then there was the additional controversy surrounding nordstream 2 constructed after the 2014 annexation of Crimea it was seen by some as Berlin rewarding Moscow for its aggression the Trump White House even slapped sanctions on the pipeline to stop its completion although the Biden White House ultimately allowed it to go ahead that it was never activated is due entirely to Russia launching its fullscale invasion of Ukraine by the start of the war then the nordstream pipelines were seen by some Eastern European States as both a geopolitical affront and also as an existential threat to Ukraine a way for Moscow to gain leverage over Europe's largest economy while also depriving Kev of Transit fees equivalent to 4% of GDP of course Germany was not alone in getting hooked on cheap Russian energy the financial times reports that by early 2022 the Kremlin supplied 46% of the eu's gas Imports today it's more like 15% s but it was Berlin that Vladimir Putin would be first to Target with his energy weapon in the summer of 2022 flows through nordstream plummeted Moscow claimed it was due to a faulty turbine but most of servers thought Putin was punishing Berlin for backing Ukraine this is why the Kremlin was a suspect in the arar of the pipeline bombings to many the destruction of nordstream 1 and two appeared to be Putin burning his Bridges with the West in the most dramatic way possible yet there was one place where the idea of Russian sabotage never gained much traction Berlin a couple of months before the blast the CIA had passed along a tip off from Dutch intelligence that Ukraine was plotting to destroy the pipelines now they lay in Ruins Germany was certain Kev must have been involved and it's here that the established facts in our narrative start to merge with the story reported by The Wall Street Journal a story that is contested even by some in Germany's intelligence agencies as well as one that is angrily denied by Ukraine now we happen to think it's B we report the story to you as the journal published it even if it turns out to be incorrect it's what a large chunk of German officials currently believe and that will likely have geopolitical consequences but just bear in mind that a lot of what you're about to hear is as yet uncorroborated whether you find it plausible or not well that's up for you to decide isn't it according to the journal the plot was hatched in May of 2022 when senior officers in Ukraine's military and a group of businessmen gathered to celebrate the withdrawal of Russian forces from after a few too many drinks someone apparently suggested a way to inflict further damage on the Kremlin by destroying nordstream at the time European nations were still handing over billions of dollars for Russian gas where nordstream 2 ever activated Moscow would gain billions more blowing up the pipelines would therefore be an easy way to hurt the kremlin's wallet and here's where the story gets controversial according to the report the general overseeing the mission reported directly to the Ukrainian Army's then overall commander Valerie's illusion zi in turn took the idea directly to president zinsky who personally approved the plan at least at first he did according to the journal when the CIA learned of the plot they demanded zalinsky abort zilinsky agreed and ordered Zan to call it off it was an order that the general would fail to follow for details of what happened next we're turning to an account from German paper dite in their telling the sabotage team zusin had dispatched rented a sailing yard to the Andromeda and set off from the German Town of rostock under the guise of a boating holiday the team eventually crossed the location of the northstream pipelines there they dive down to a depth of 80 M and attached explosives not long after on the evening of September the 26th the first charge is detonated the evidence desite provides that the crew on board the Andromeda were responsible is long and it is fairly convincing ranging from DNA traces to cellular data to accounts from eyewitnesses who just so happen to encounter the ship during its travels but perhaps nothing is quite so damning as the following quote investigators later found residues of the explosive hmx also known as octogen on board the Andromeda as to how this was linked back to Ukraine well a white van connected to the boat trip was caught by a speed camera on the German island of rugan the Ft reports that it was carrying diving equipment used during the operation sat in the front passenger seat was none other than vadir galov a 44-year-old diving instructor from Kiev who was living in Poland jov's possible connection to the Andromeda was enough for German authorities to issue an arrest warrant for him this June Berlin believes it was received by polish authorities who then failed to act on it rather than the arrested gavl freely crossed the border into Ukraine in July since Ukraine does not extradite its own citizens it's now unlikely that the arrest warrant will ever be served speaking anonymously German officials have complained to the media that this wasn't the only time polish authorities hampered their investigation CCTV footage of the Andromeda at a port in Poland was requested by Berlin only for Warsaw to reply that the footage have been destroyed the suspicion in some quarters is that Poland may now be helping Ukraine hide the truth of what happened that faithful September Day August hanning the former head of Germany's intelligence agency has even been quoted by deuts as saying Warsaw was heavily involved in the preparation of this attack so you can see what we mean about this story being a little bit of a political bombshell although hanning is long reti the mere accusation that a NATO Ally may have helped plot an attack on German infrastructure is incendiary as a bathtub of Napal but is there more to this story than simple accusations could it be the truth or is it nothing more than an overbaked spy Thriller the modern equivalent of gullible Western journalists reprinting Soviet propaganda perhaps unsurprisingly it depends on which side you already stand on Poland and Ukraine for example have issued denials bordering on contemptuous here's polish Deputy Prime Minister Chris Kowalski commenting on the accusations of warsaw's involvement it has to be said clearly that this is a lie I think this is Russian disinformation resonating through the words of German politicians meanwhile here is one of Ukraine's presidential AIDS telling AFP that quote Ukraine's involvement in the nordstream explosions is absolute nonsense there was no practical sense in such actions for Ukraine it is clear the explosions of the nordstream pipelines did not stop the war did not deter Russian aggression and did not affect the situation on the front line now to be clear it's not only authorities in Poland and Ukraine who think the journal story is russian-backed bunam Politico recently reported on senior German intelligence officials who are worried the whole thing is an elaborate false flag attack designed by Russia to sap Western support for Ukraine the Polish authorities are confident enough in this explanation that they've even compiled a list of Russian agents involved as a result it's hard to say for sure that the mystery has now been solved while the German story is compelling until some hard evidence emerges it will remain merely that a story yet as we mentioned earlier a this stage the truth may not really matter what matters is that German intelligence believes it has the answer believes that Ukraine committed an act of war against its energy infrastructure an act of war that it suspects may have been abetted by its NATO Ally Poland should this become the dominant view among German politicians it's hard to see how it couldn't have massive consequences so far everyone is being careful to keep those consequences below the radar DW reports that Berlin has so far quote insisted its military help to Ukraine was completely independent from the nordstream probe and its ties to Kev are unaffected really though no one believes that one won't affect the other deside for example finished its in-depth report on the revelations by asking what would happen if ukrainians were actually behind the attack would the Ambassador have to be summoned would the arms deliveries be stopped how would one deal with a country that destroyed the infrastructure that Germany wanted to use to supply itself with gas now fairly or unfairly the these are questions that are not going to be going away anytime soon unless Ukraine or Poland could produce a counternarrative that cartens German suspicions then these questions are only going to grow more pressing as more time passes because as things stand today Berlin is in an increasingly awkward position the bombing of the nordstream pipelines may have been just one murky event in a war full of them but it could yet become something else too an event that could shape relations between Ukraine and her second biggest military backer at one of the war's most crucial ter in points