Ukraine's Kursk Operation Crumbles, Crisis on Frontline Grows

today is September 15th 2024 the conflict in Ukraine continues to grind on Ukrainian forces continue to deteriorate both along the line of contact but also amid their ongoing occupation of a small section of ksk inside Russia pre 2014 Russian borders we will take a look at the battlefield and what is transpiring there we will also take a look at some of the potential next steps the United States will take to both perpetuate this conflict and continue pursuing their agenda which ultimately is to encircle contain overextend divide and Destroy Russia which is Again part of a much wider Global strategy that has been persistent since the end of the Cold War that is to eliminate all peer and near peer competitors existing competitors potential competitors this is what has defined US foreign policy for decades now so let's take a look at the map this is liveu map.com this is a pro-ukrainian live map so keep that in mind when we look at it this is a map that is going to try to delay reporting any successes of Russia for as long as possible but even this Pro Ukrainian map is painting a bleak picture for Ukraine and it has been for quite a long time it is impossible to paper over what is now happening in Ukraine so let's take a look look for those unfamiliar red is Russian held territory this includes Crimea which passed a referendum to join the Russian Federation in 2014 it also includes heran part of Khan zapar roia the Damas region and part of hartov the area in particular that most of the focus is on at any rate is this area close to donet City directly west uh towards prros we've been hearing a lot about that the Salient continues to expand we can see another Salient down here and we can see efforts to join them right here ongoing so this is this is going to become one large sing you can see how it's starting to extend over vladar right here vladar is a heavily fortified Ukrainian position Russian forces have been uh trying to encircle and take vladar for some time they've been grinding down Ukrainian defenses there for some time we're talking months if if not a year or more by compromising the surrounding area they will compromise Ukraine's ability continue to support Vadar operationally so that is what is happening this is what the Western media is primarily focused on I will go over articles where they talk about the continued deterioration of Ukrainian defenses around Ros but if you look elsewhere along the line of contact you will see Russian forces making progress elsewhere there is fighting still taking place west of bahmut toward chavar we also have continued fighting uh toward HOV and Copans of course Russia maintains this relatively newer front in harkov North of harkov city and of course we have this this is the Ukrainian incursion into ksk now I very recently published a a map uh an edited image taken from liveu map.com I added in these arrows this blue line is a Waterway uh across which there were bridges that Ukraine was attacking now these explosion icons don't actually represent the exact position of these Bridges it's just to depict the process of Ukraine striking and trying to destroy destroy these Bridges uh the idea was there was speculation that Ukraine would try to move into this area and as a matter of fact this map actually indicates that there is a Ukrainian presence here along the border now what had happened and the the Red Arrows indicate an actual Russian offensive reported on by both the Russian Ministry of Defense but also the Ukrainian military and pro-western pro Ukrainian comment comment ators and analysts Russian forces pushed all the way down to the Border West of Ukraine's incursion Here and Now Ukraine finds itself surrounded by a growing number of increasingly capable Russian forces it's important to understand the whole reason Ukraine went into ksk in the first place was because there was scarcely any Russian forces there they they attacked where Russian forces weren't now Russian forces are there in large numbers bringing in an increasing number of military capabilities and they are surrounding and grinding down the Ukrainian presence in ksk now going back to this map at a minimum what the ukrainians were trying to do by hitting these Bridges was actually prevent Russian forces from moving to a a position west of Ukraine's incursion here to prevent it from being surrounded on all three sides by Russian forces well now that has failed if there was some sort of process of taking the rest of this territory which the the blue arrows indicated a a potential speculative incursion further incursion of Ukrainian forces the idea was to hit these Bridges prevent Russian forces from operating in this area and allowing Ukraine to hold this territory long term but because Russian forces have now now established this position they're cutting to the potential Ukrainian uh occupation of all of this territory in half and they're ensuring a steady flow of logistics uh to combat operations in this area extending uh Westward so whatever plans Ukraine had for Kursk these plans are being derailed as we speak and this is something that the Western media has itself been covering so let's get into that this is foreign affairs from September 2nd 2024 this is by Michael Kaufman and Rob Lee and these are two widely cited commentators regarding the conflict in Ukraine they go to Ukraine relatively often they uh collect information they come back and they present it in articles like this and now the title is Ukraine's gamble the risks and re rewards of the offensive into Russia's K region now no sooner did they publish this and examine all the potential rewards that Ukraine might gain by this incursion not no sooner did they publish this that everything began rapidly unraveling which was entirely predictable there are no rewards for Ukraine in CK there are none at all as I said the the moment this incursion began unfolding this was a strategic blunder this was only going to further overextend already overextended Ukraine Ian forces they have no troops or equipment or ammunition to spare just to defend the line of contact let alone send thousands 10,000 or more troops into Russian territory I pointed out the fact that if Ukrainian forces could not hold heavily fortified positions along the line of contact with relatively decent logistical support there's absolutely no way they're going to be able to hold territory in Russia without those fortifications and without that logistical support now every single aspect of that analysis is being confirmed by the Western media citing both US military officials and also Ukrainian officials and commanding officers on the field of battle so let's read a little bit from this Foreign Affairs piece and this was the thinking before everything started to unravel and then let's talk about how it has unraveled by looking at more recent reports from the Western media on August 6 Ukraine launched a bold offensive into Russia's K region leveraging surprise and speed to quickly bypass Russian defensive lines there were hardly any defenses to speak of there was hardly a Russian military presence in ksk at all which is exactly why Ukraine picked this place to attack and yes when you are Waging War you tried to attack your enemy where where they aren't uh avoid where they are strongest uh this is a a tenant of military strategy stretching all the way back to ssu's the Art of War but if your military is already badly losing you have no resources to spare doing something like this is is only going to make the situation worse not better so there's a a time and a place for attacking where the enemy isn't uh and you have to attack the enemy where they aren't in a way that makes strategic sense not because that's the only place you can attack without being immediately annihilated since then Ukraine has captured a significant track of Russian territory and taken hundreds of Russian soldiers as prisoners now 3 weeks into the attack so this was as of September second Ukrainian forces are holding territory and continuing offensive operations they imp uh intent on consolidating a defensible buffer inside Russia well this this has all now unraveled admittedly unraveled this offensive has shifted the formally gloomy narrative at least for the moment about the negative trajectory of the war again that was as of September 2nd as of now September 15 2024 The Narrative is gloomier than ever because now there's this admission that the ksk incursion was a strategic blunder and it has actually accelerated the collapse of Ukrainian forces along the line of contact now that again September 2nd this is from CNN this is September 8th so 6 days after this article Foreign Affairs piece was published outgunned and outnumbered Ukraine's military struggling with low morale and desertion so this morale boost this change in in the gloomy narrative to something more optimistic almost immediately unraveled there was no substance to this it was a PR stunt and like all PR stunts Ukraine engages in has a very fleeting effect this CNN article on September 8th says 2 and 1/2 years of Russia's grinding offensive have decimated many Ukrainian units reinforcement are few and far between leaving some soldiers exhausted and demoralized the situation is particularly dire among infantry units near cros and Elsewhere on the Eastern Front Line where Ukraine is struggling to stop Russia's creeping advances CNN spoke to six commanders and officers who are or were until recently fighting or supervising units in the area all six said desertion and insubordination are becoming a widespread problem especially among newly recruited soldiers so this was something that was already well underway long in the making you could understand why Ukraine would be tempted to launch a PR stunt like the ksk incursion but again PR stunts paper over your problems they don't address the fundamental issues that have created them now getting back to the Foreign Affairs piece it says the offensive has yet to draw significant Russian forces from Ukraine's Eastern regions and it remains unclear how Ukraine's leaders intend to translate this tactical success into strategic or political gains well it it hadn't been drawing off Russian forces it it isn't and it won't because as the incursion the the occupation in course begins to crumble and deteriorate there's less and less reason for Russia to move forces that are operating across the Damas region to ksk by redirecting resources away from defensive efforts in the Eastern donet region Ukraine is that other parts of the 750 m front won't collapse that it will not lose a large number of soldiers and equipment in K and that the benefits from its operations in ksk will outweigh the cost of su that the cost sustained elsewhere well now we can see that actually the front line is beginning to CR to crumble and collapse at an accelerated rate admittedly because of the CL incursion it continues Ukraine's military leadership also hoped the incursion would divert Russian forces from its front lines in the East however the Commander in Chief of Ukrainian Armed Forces Alexander sski said that Russia has instead intensified its efforts and deployed its most combat ready units to the prros front and on that so it has achieved the exact opposite has intensified Russian operations along the line of contact against weakened Ukrainian positions because Ukraine Drew off troops and equipment to send to qus so an absolute strategic blunder working to accelerate the collapse of Ukraine's front line and of course this uh the CNN article wasn't the the only article painting a gloomy picture following the ksk incursion we have this from The Economist danger in danas as Ukraine's Frontline falter so it's not me saying Ukraine's front lines are faltering it's it's the Western media it's the economist Russian Fighters are are trying to encircle The Defenders and this is something that uh that this was as of September 8th there's this more recent BBC article this is from uh today September 14th 15th depending on where you are in the world ukrainians warn of being surrounded as Russia advances in East so what you will hear is that yes Russia was advancing to toward prros but Ukraine has since stabilized the front well no it it didn't as explained the closer Russian forces get to prros which is which is an builtup urban area the slower they're going to work because the more dense Ukrainian defenses are the longer it will take to grind them down with long range fires and and other military operations this is the pattern that we have seen play out in bakut atfa now pakros The Economist says for the past two months Russia has poured most of these resources into attacking the logistical Hub of p uh the push Advanced at an alarming rate and even accelerated after Ukraine launched an operation inside Russia that was designed to reduce the pressure so again it's not me making these claims it's that the Russian Ministry of Defense making these claims they are saying this but it's because this is reality and this is a reality that even the Western media is now admitting Now The Economist talks about logistics along the line of contact not in ksk not the Ukrainian presence in ksk the Ukrainian line of contact their most heavily fortified positions this is what they say about logistics along the line of contact fuel trucks Supply vehicles and headquarters have been pushed back hiding from tightening Russian from the tightening Russian noose resupply is no longer quick getting mortars or Javelin anti-tank Rockets takes half a day at best vacu evacuating the wounded is more complicated there are field hospitals nearby to stabilize the worst off but with the main road to prosk now cut fewer make it to the full-fledged Hospital in time so this is the situation Ukrainian forces in their heavily fortified positions along the line of contact face in terms of logistics how do you think Ukrainian forces in ksk are doing in terms of fortifications and Logistics The Economist also notes Russia's numerical advantages along the line of contact as well as advant vantages in drones and electronic warfare which is something that I've been talking about all throughout the special military operation since it began February 2022 something that I was accused of being a Russian propagandist for saying but now something that the economist and many others Across the Western media are admitting uh It Is An Inconvenient Truth but it is the truth nonetheless getting back to the Foreign Affairs piece again September 2nd and just think about how quick things have changed from from when that was written and then published to now what is unfolding immediately according to the Western media Ukraine's K incursion has raised flagging morale among its troops and restored the initiative along a patch of the front no no it didn't not for any meaningful amount of time the attack has also deeply embarrassed Moscow maybe demonstrating how unprepared Russia was for an OP an offensive operation along the border 3 months after launching its own incursion into hard Russia's leadership undoubtedly believed that the war was steadily going its way and that time was on its side well it is going Russia's way time is on Russia's side even if a PR stunt tries to make it appear otherwise clearly it is working in favor of Russia and you can see even this PR stunt unraveling specifically because it is working in Russia's favor course will force Moscow to consider that Ukraine retains options and that the outcome of this war is still unsettled actually I think it is now proven exactly the opposite it proves that no matter what Ukraine does no matter how successful it is in the short term in the long term all factors favor Russia and as long as Russia stays the course it will it will prevail again these political factors are very temporary these PR studs do not address the fundamental issues creating this crisis for Ukraine in the first place if did they do not address these fundamental issues they're not going to change the outcome of this conflict the offensive does not redress the current material imbalance in the war so even this Foreign Affairs piece is admitting that the fundamental factors driving this conflict the outcome of this conflict have not been addressed by this Ukrainian PR St into for now Russia retains an advantage in Manpower equipment and ammunition and then and then they say this this Advantage has not proven Prov decisive how has it not proved decisive Russian forces are clearly annihilating Ukraine's capacity to make war to the point where their heavily fortified front line is collapsing even after launching an incursion into Russian territory failing to divert Russian forces because Russian military power has continued to grow as they continue to grind down Ukraine's military power when they say it hasn't been decisive they're talking solely in terms of territorial capture because in their mind Michael Kaufman and Rob Lee still see this as a war of territorial Conquest they do not seem to understand or grasp the strategy of attrition Russia is using they're not trying to break through Ukrainian defenses and seize territory they're trying to annihilate Ukrainian defenses and then as Ukrainian forces fall back they gain territory it is a completely different process it is abundantly clear that this is the strategy Russia is using and yet they continue insisting on this this theory of Victory based on territorial conquest and I don't know if they're doing that because they honestly can't understand or comprehend what is going on or if it's a a convenient propaganda Ploy uh to convince people who still pay pay attention to what they are saying uh to convince them that somehow Russia is is losing even as they clearly are annihilating Ukrainian forces collapsing their fight capacity in a slow motion campaign along the entire line of contact now getting back to Michael Kaufman and Rob Lee's piece in foreign affairs this is how it concludes since 2023 Washington has been out of ideas for how to successfully end the war on terms favorable to Ukraine there there are no terms favorable to Ukraine that this can conclude on KV meanwhile has been focused on stabilizing the front line but equally worried about the prevailing gloomy narrative and the sense that Ukraine is losing the war there's not a sense that Ukraine is losing the war Ukraine is losing the war the ksk operation helps address the latter at the risk of doing damage to the former and and then it turns out no actually it's not helping either whether or not K succeeds well it is failing before our very eyes at least it is not an attempt to refight the failed 2023 offensive a setpiece battle in which Ukraine held no decisive advantages Ukraine only held an advantage in ksk in the opening phase of the operation because there were no Russian forces there again there are now Russian forces there they have no advantages and they are being obliterated it makes no sense at all for Ukrainian forces to continue operating in course it's just going to get them killed and it's going to strain an already overloaded logistical Network this obsession with the narrative again you can paper over the narrative you can convince large numbers of people that Ukraine is not losing the war but that does not actually change the fact that Ukraine is losing the war this is all an attempt to paper over reality not address the factors actually shaping that reality and then it talks about an attempt to refight the failed 2023 offensive they're saying at least they're not trying to do that well the reality is they have no ability to Stage another offensive operation on the scale of the 2023 offensive this this is something that I had pointed out that Ukrainian combat capabilities and the West support for Ukraine will just gradually decrease continuously decrease both in absolute terms and also relative to Growing Russian military power the Foreign Affairs piece continues it says that said Kev kev's present theory of success remains unclear beyond the ksk offensive and the situation at the front Russia's strike campaigns against Ukraine's energy grid is increasingly the bigger problem Ukraine faces an uncertain winter it needs generators and air defense to close gaps in its coverage there is no way to get enough air defense to close gaps in its coverage the West literally physically cannot create enough air defense systems or Munitions to protect Ukraine from Russian missile and drone attacks more important Ukraine needs a way to compel Russia to stop these strikes if not in 2024 then certainly in 2025 in this light Ukraine's desire to lift the remaining restrictions on the use of Western longrange strike systems is understandable the K offensive has prompted that conversation but it needs to do much more again the problem with these Western longrange weapon systems that Ukraine wants to use across the rest of Russia is that they don't exist in nearly large enough numbers they already have been insufficient to change this the Dynamics of the fighting strategically along the line of contact and immediately behind it uh we we we heard all of these narratives about how himars was going to disrupt Russian Logistics Russian Logistics adapted and overcame the presence of himars now you're talking about taking this very limited number of longrange capabilities and spreading it out across a much wider area yes you will score a lot of PR points you will almost certainly get missiles through and hit high value targets across Russia but Russia is the largest Nation by land area on Earth its military industrial base is massive it's spread out over a huge distance there is no way you're going to disrupt Russian combat operations by using a limited number of longrange weapons to strike at these capabilities think about how Ukraine has already been using long range Western longrange weapons on you on Crimea Crimea is being used used to launch air strikes missile strikes there's air defense systems based there there's Naval facilities based there uh Ukraine did manage to succeed in disrupting Russia's Naval presence there to an extent but in all other regards they have failed if they cannot succeed in isolating and containing Crimea how are they going to isolate and contain Russian military capabilities across the rest of Russia it's completely unrealistic then it says holding ksk as a bargaining chip expanding strikes and putting economic pressure on Russia could significantly strengthen Ukraine's hand assuming Ukraine can also Hold the Line exhaust Russia's offensive potential and withstand Russia's strike campaign this winter however it ends the ksk offensive needs to provide the impetus for Ukraine and its Partners to get on the same page and shake off the current drift well the current drift is evidence of just how decisive Russia's strategy of attrition has been and will continue being there is this drift there is this Gloomy Narrative of this perception that Ukraine is losing because it is losing precisely because of Russia's strategy of attrition so again this obsession with Russia isn't taking huge tracks of territory therefore it's military operations it's its advantages are not decisive they are decisive this is the New York Times this is September 12th 2024 Biden poised to approve Ukraine's use of long range Western weapons in Russia the topic will be on the agenda uh this was on Friday with the first official visit to Washington by Britain's new prime minister Kier starmer now it appears that the the US and the UK have concluded that they're not going to give Ukraine permission to use these weapons we heard US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin talk about about how even if this permission was given to Ukraine the the primary objective at least the stated objective is to strike at Russian air power on the ground before they launch these these Glide bombs that are devastating Ukrainian positions all line of contact and secretary Austin said that Russian air power has been moved beyond the range of these weapons so even if we give permission to Ukraine to use these weapons they're not going to be able to Target these these a bases because they have been moved back there are many air bases all across Russia they can move these war planes back further it will take them longer to to reach targets but they're still going to get there they're still going to drop their their Glide bombs and they're still going to devastate the line of contact Ukrainian defensive positions along the line of contact what what is authorizing Ukraine to launch longrange weapons into the rest of Russia going to do yes it will raise the cost for Russia it's going to force Russian troops and air power to be moved back and to be dispersed which puts strain on Russia's military but these are all costs that Russia is willing to pay they can pay and they will pay what it's also going to do is deplete the number of long range weapon systems the United States and Europe have available to them and I've talked extensively how the conflict in Ukraine is not being fought in isolation it's part of a global strategy to eliminate all peer and near-peer competitors especially China the United States needs every long-range weapon it has to fight the war it is trying to provoke with China if it is handing these weapons over to Ukraine to use on Russia it'll deplete these weapons they will not have any or enough of them to fight this war they want with China now finally I have said many times at this point it's clear that the United States is not going to defeat Russia using Ukraine as a proxy but we have to remember where this proxy war stemmed from the US foreign policy objective this proxy war stemmed from in the first place I have exhaustively referenced this Rand Corporation paper titled extending Russia competing from advantageous ground this was published in 2019 and it laid out every single option the US has since exercised one way or another at trying to bait Russia into conflict and overextend it hopefully to precipitate a Soviet style collapse of the Russian Federation now if we look at the table of content you will see many very familiar measures that the US has already since taken we're already in the process of taking or have since taken uh provide lethal Aid to Ukraine and I've gone over this one many many times the whole point was to provoke Russia into a large scale conflict in Ukraine hopefully to overextend it militarily and cause a collapse the US also proposed continuing support of Syrian rebels by that they mean Al-Qaeda and Isis which they have continued doing but has has likewise failed to significantly overextend Russia promote regime change in Belarus again this was 2019 since then the US has attempted to overthrow the government in Belarus exploit tensions in the South caucus where we've been hearing about Georgia Armenia azerbajan reduce Russian influence in Central Asia that has been ongoing we've been hearing about malova and then there are these options here ideological and informational measures packed ways for influence operations let's take a look at this one closer it says the hold that regimes have on power can weaken or collapse for many reasons from external Invasion to to a withdrawal of popular support while Russia does have genuine external security concerns this chapter focuses on potential domestic threats to regime stability in particular it focuses on the prospects for widespread popular dissa dissatisfaction with the regime so they're talking about the US sponsoring and and perpetuating popular dissatisfaction in Russia to undermine and overthrow the regime regime change the color Revolution option that the United States used in 2014 in Ukraine to overthrow the elected government of Ukraine and install client regime in its place the political capture of Ukraine they're talking about doing this in regards to Russia now look at this Business Insider article this is from September 9th 2024 the plot to tople Putin a growing Army of Russian Exiles want to take back Russia can they succeed and they act as if these people are all acting independently they just all coincidentally are based in Washington DC and and one of them they even admit that they are receiving funding from the international Republican Institute which is a subsidiary of the US National Endowment for democracy the premier agency funding political interference around the globe funding and and organizing and directing color revolutions all around the globe so this is what the United States is doing yes they continue waging this proxy war against Russia they are not trying to save or defend Ukraine they intend to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian until there is nothing left of Ukraine that is able to fight on to raise the cost as high as possible while they continue exercising all of these other options that we see them laying out in this Rand Corporation paper and they have a similar identical I would say strategy aimed at China as well so the United States again we have to remember that the proxy war is important to understand stand and to follow there's so much that we can learn about Modern Warfare and the direction of geopolitics by examining deeply what is happening in Ukraine we have to zoom out and look at the geopolitical Strategic lay of what is happening that this conflict is unfolding within this is just one of several measures the US is using to put pressure on Russia to try to collapse it and we can see how Russia is not just waging this war essentially against the US the rest of NATO via Ukraine inside Ukraine we can see that Russia is working internationally with China with Brazil with India with South Africa the original brics members and now the growing list of Nations that are either joining Bricks now or want to join bricks and we have to understand that everything Russia does in Ukraine has to fit in logically strategically and diplomatically to this much larger strategy Russia is pursuing to defend itself against what is a full spectrum conflict the US is waging on Russia not just in Ukraine but all around the globe and even within Russian borders them themselves and again just look at this article I mean this is the the the way they try to word this the way they try to present this is to maintain plausible deniability as much as possible but what they are actually admitting to is the fact that yes the the United States is heavily invested and toppling the Russian government from within not just the proxy war in Ukraine to weaken and overextend Russia but attempts to undermine Russia within as well so everything we hear from the United States about how Russia or China are trying to interfere in the US and topple democracy Challenge and topple democracy worldwide is actually projection it's what the US is doing to Russia and China to which Russia and China are reacting it's very important to understand all of this it's important to keep track of the conflict in Ukraine itself and also to zoom out and keep an eye on the larger geopolitical trajectory all of this is taking so I will continue keeping an eye on all of that if you thought this video in particular was useful please like and share think about subscribing it's free to do it helps the channel grow check the video description below for other ways you can find and follow my work I have my work on YouTube on Rumble all of my videos are also backed up on telegram on telegram I am able to publish absolutely everything at the moment even my articles that I write for new Eastern Outlook the links to new Eastern Outlook articles are currently blocked on X also in the video description below you will find all of the links that I referenced as 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