apparently the god of predictions the carac of Elections has come out to tell us that he knows who's going to win it's American University Professor Dr Alan lickman who has correctly predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections he gave his final verdict today about the 2024 race the only one he's gotten wrong out of the last 10 elections was Bush Vore he must have been confused by all the sighing Carl um it also could have been the very tight hanging chad race that we saw there but he's right almost always and he says vice president kamla Harris will defeat former president Donald Trump and keep the White House in Democratic hands well what do you guys think of the good professor well listen we'll see uh we'll see whether you know his track record isn't as as Sterling I think as most people make it out to be um but look this is a close race it could go either way I mean that's the truth and you know he's got his 13 keys that he uses and that's fine but you know we go by what the poll show and right now the poll show this is a very very close race Politico put it at um what did they say knife fight in a foam Booth that's how tight it is right now and we've had a couple of polls come out over the past few days uh ABC and ipsos released a poll on on Tuesday showing no post DNC bounce for her showing that they pulled registered voters before and after the convention and she was up plus4 in both of them it does show that when you zero it down to likely voters she's up six but that's you know a national poll and then you get into this Politico state of the race as of Monday and this is the one I wanted to ask you guys about because they go through all of the Swing States and they take your average the RCP average the 538 average that's Nate Silver's old organization which he's got some issues with now in the way they're trying to implement his old model and then there's the actual Nate silver which he calls the silver bulletin average and they compared all three of them in all of the seven swing States and what they showed is that it is extremely tight but I will tell you there's a lot of Harris leads they're slim but she this is my armchair take on what I'm looking at here like in Arizona again this is going at the three of your averages compared to each other here's Arizona she's plus 0.2 plus 0.5 plus 0.5 Georgia she's plus 0.4 then Trump plus 0.2 Harris plus .1 Michigan she's plus 2.4 plus 1.1 plus 1.9 that's kind of how it goes throughout except North Carolina which shows Trump Trump plus 0.4 0.6 0.3 I know from listening to you guys you think Pennsylvania in particular is tighter than this comparison is showing which shows her plus 1.2 plus 0.5 plus 1.2 any as somebody who has said she's going to vote for Trump I don't like these numbers it's tight but she seems to be leading in all of them and I know that these polls have margins of error but you guys are always pointing out that's why you do averages of all the polls so what am I missing here Andrew like is there something that's wrong with looking at it this way no I think I think that's a good way to look at it um and I think you're right to point out that uh the national averages are not that important what really matters is these swing States um Pennsylvania is the tightest of the tight I've never seen anything like this before Tom may know better but the last three polls that went into the RCP average were all tied so we have Pennsylvania total tied up that rarely happens um with that kind of consistency so I think it will come down to Pennsylvania um that's what 19 electoral votes so that's pretty important State uh for Trump to win but as you know as as we know this is about as tight a race as it could be right now I would uh you know I think we'll just have to wait and see um that's the thing we don't know it's frustrating we want to know we want the predictor that's going to show us how and and it's just not there like this is going to be a nailbiter isn't it Carl yeah and I I I don't want to know I look forward to election tonight making here's the here's the thing Tom and I have been talking about this going back and forth on our own podcast in 2016 and again in 2020 six of these seven states broke the same way for for Donald Trump and then for Joe Biden there's nothing written in you know in stone or in the heavens that they have to break that way it could be four to three we could look at we could be looking piecing together and trying you know more like 2000 the the one that uh Professor lter missed you know we're we're looking for two or three electoral votes here or there but the the other big question that I have going into this is have the have these pollsters fixed the problems that had caused them to undercount Donald Trump both in both of those elections U they they think they have they say they've tried but we won't know till election night because remember if this thing is tied in all these swing States it wasn't it wasn't close four years ago Biden had a significant lead in all these states and then they were much closer so if the pollsters are wrong again two three four points off then Trump's going to win so that's that's the other thing we'll know election night because these art real clear politics and Nate silver and 530 they're not doing their original polling they are aggregating these polls and then Politico is aggregating the aggregators but the big question people know and I I was talking to Doug Rivers who does the ugu poll I had dinner with him Sunday night and he he says that he hopes they fixed it but he won't know the other thing that we're not talking about much at all Tom is they get out the vote operation and Trump has been dumping on vote by mail for four years now yeah you know you can tell when somebody's smart gets into his ear and says stop saying that we need to bank early vote he'll have like one interview where he's like yeah okay vote by mail and then left to his own devices he's back to no I don't know could be fraud but they're going to start banking vote especially on the Dem side starting on September 16th in Pennsylvania right 16th or 13th anyway we soon and on the Republican side I don't really know what the get out the vote operation is other than Charlie Kirk or Pal Charlie over at Turning Point USA I like the RNC seems to have outsourced it to him and he's great but I is he enough yeah you know I I had a discussion with Sean trendy who's our senior elections analyst and he's one of the smartest guys you know in the country on politics and we were talking about this and and he was saying you know he doesn't buy that it's you know the the the hardcore voters are going to vote you know whether they vote early whether they vote on Election Day it's still a vote for the candidate it's it's really finding those marginal voters and chasing down those marginal voters that is going to end up making the difference in these states but just to go back to the polling for a second Megan because I think it is important I mean we just we just did a a video it's called a real quick take and you can go find it on on social media where we analyzed uh the 2016 and the 20120 by state in in these seven Battleground States how badly the pollsters undercounted Trump's vote in 2016 and 2020 and it was obviously worse in Wisconsin they missed by seven points in 2016 and then six points in in 2020 so on average about six and a half points over the last two cycles KLA Harris is up 1.4 in Wisconsin right now so if they do fact Get It Wrong by this by the way the same amount they have averaged over the last two cycles Trump would be ahead in Wisconsin um and you go down these you go in these states like uh Arizona and Georgia for example in 2016 2020 those were the two most accurate States posters hit hit them within half a percentage point and right now Trump's got a 1% lead in Arizona and K Harris has a on10th of 1% lead in Georgia so uh you know you just go and look at these you look at how close these states are and then you look at you know past performance of these pollsters um and then you also look at the national average right Hillary Clinton won by 2.1% and lost that election in the Battleground States Joe Biden won by 4.5% the national popular vote and just barely won so you know KLA Harris right now is at two points in our national average two and a half points in the five wve race so she's on the lower end of that range where if that's if the polls were actually accurate um she would probably be come up short in these Battleground States if she can move that nationally to three four five points then you're looking at a situation where she should be uh comfortably enough ahead in enough Battleground states to win this election but right now it is absolutely a jump ball in my opinion when you look at these numbers it's almost like when you go to the doctor and they take your temperature and you're like what are you doing I have a stomach ache why are you taking my temperature it's like well if your temperature's High it tells me something's wrong with you on the inside if your temperature is normal it tells me something else about what's happening to you and the national vote is like the temperature like it doesn't tell us what the actual thing is but it gives us a clue as to how things are going and she needs to get those numbers up in the National vote for us to believe she's going to carry the swing States that's and that's what she's been saying you know it's going to be tight we need to win we need to win by a lot and they will have a strong get out the vote operation here Steve coraki the other day uh talking about how Democrats feeling good about seeing those numbers I just ticked off with you guys showing you know Harris up more than Trump and some of these states need to need to take a breath and take a beat if you take a look at the paths the easiest path for each candidate will start with kamla Harris all of the State polling is very tight but the the best polling relatively speaking for Harris and the Democrats has been in talk about them all the time these Great Lake States Big 10 states whatever you want to call them Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania now if Harris could win those three states just for the sake of argument turn them blue there exact L 270 electoral votes for her now if she slips up Pennsylvania in particular is one Republicans of these three think they have a a good shot at here let's say she were to slip up Harris did and lost Pennsylvania Pennsylvania is the biggest of all the swing States 19 electoral votes Harris would have to compensate by winning at least two from the Sun Belt here and for Trump's easiest path quickly here it's to get Pennsylvania it's to hold North Carolina like he did in 20 and it's to win back Georgia which he very narrowly lost that would get him to exactly the magic number wow it's when you see that you start thinking Andrew why did she go with her emotional support Governor why didn't she pick Josh Shapiro I think that will be a real question that will be asked the day after the election and we'll know then whether it was a good choice or a bad choice but there certainly is a lot of people or are a lot of people who think that Josh Shapiro might have been the the the wiser choice because I personally feel that Pennsylvania is going is the most important state everyone else is saying it as well but one thing I'm looking at is McCormack uh the senate race there because McCormack is doing surprisingly well and that is another indicator if McCormack does well um he may there may be some reverse coils in Pennsylvania uh he the that would be amazing right you guys AR talking about no one's really talking about Pennsylvania McCormack is is a possible GOP pickup that that that hasn't really been at the the front of the tongue no but I uh Tom you keep better eye on the polls than I do but uh he's done well in the last two polls that I saw at least well the C the CNN polls that just came out had that race tied and he has been excuse me he has been you know pounding Bob Casey with these ads basically of Kam Harris her own words talking about wanting to ban fracking and the like so he's run a very uh very smart campaign thus far and it seems to be paying off and and he is doing better than a lot of the other Republican Senate candidates around the country did you know there's nearly 1 trillion do of infrastructure and pandemic funds yet to be spent that's right there's a massive amount of money that the lame duck Administration is pushing hard to spend in their last few months if the president is able to push these funds out we could see another prolonged inflation surge just like during covid but there's hope a gold Ira from Birch gold group can be an inflation Hedge for your savings in uncertain times to see how to protect your IRA or 401K get your free info kit on Gold by texting MK to 9898 98 Birch gold makes it seamless to roll over your retirement account while preserving your tax advantaged status don't wait for the president's spending spree to potentially tank the dollar further protect your financial future Now text MK to get more info and text my initials to the number 9898 98 that will bring you your free info kit from Birch gold thanks so much for watching if you like what you just saw hit the Subscribe button for more clips and full episodes