[Music] highly interesting uh that we're staying on that Saturday 700 P p.m. eastern time FS1 the Houston Cougars and new coach Willie Fritz host last season's Mountain West runner up it is the UNLV Rebels led by seconde coach Barry odm there Houston has a win total of three and a half but they are favored by two here at bet Us in this game total sits at 56 A5 uh Houston's Market money line is - 148 uh implied odds of nearly 60% on this one let's go on and do it best helmet here both red Kyle tell me what you think I feel were the Houston uh blue ones those blue uniforms are fantastic they are um I'm gonna go with UNLV I think this is a close one as well they're pretty similar all right Parker what about you yeah I like UNLV you get the silver out there you get to show out a little bit shout out to Barry odm riding a bll with in March which I totally missed until last week with just an amazing uh Vibes play by him most certainly I I I'll go on to tell you that I did place a UNLV plus three wager when it was still there because of the bull riding video um look I'm going to go unlv's helmet I don't really like the wide uh logo but that's just a personal preference so uh as far as trends go Houston only three and nine against the spread in the last three seasons as a home favorite uh new coach Willie Fritz was only one and five against the spread in his last six as a home favorite at two lane last last year UNLV however 4-0 against the spread as a road dog last year they're 12-3 against the spread and they're last 15 as a road Underdog that's uh that's pretty good numbers pretty good numbers Kyle let's start off with you neither of these defenses are very good um maybe we're looking at an over in this one yeah I certainly lean to the over in this game that would be my my favorite betat here I love the Willie Fritz higher I think Fritz you know it's it's hard to not like this higher it's fantastic but um it's really he set up to fail at the beginning of his 10year here hogerson didn't exactly leave him uh in a great spot how quick can the turnaround happen uh Houston secondary is a massive weakness opportunity for UNLV in the passing game um two good FCS transfers battling for the job at quarterback white is a cheat code at wide receiver he's just fantastic um definitely a top wide receivers in the conference for UNLV uh I think Kane is a good transfer in from Texas that will help them quite a bit so uh little Run game I think they'll try to throw it quite a bit that's part of the reason why I'd like an over here in this game I think UNLV will air it out UNLV secondary is the weakness of their defense um I think the question mark is you know is Houston the team that can expose that kind of weakness because uh I don't know that they'll be that consistent in the passing game unlb was 10 and four against the spread last year uh often tough to make money on the teams that just went 10 and four against the spread in the last season because people want to bet what they remember um I'm going to go slightly into the over here but I'd like it to get at least below the 56 so I'm not going to bet it yet but that's my lean I've always considered UNLV coach Barry odm a good defensive coordinator but I mean the defense last year was questionable at best but but look Odum returns three allconference performers at defensive line linebacker and in the secondary they got three other starters back and it's a defense that is expected to start nine seniors and two Juniors like that's going to be really interesting to me especially right out of the gate game number one right I think Willie Fritz is an incredible coach but the situation is not ideal for him like remember this guy is a builder his last three jobs he's lost the first game in each of those first Seasons now of course context is everything uh the quarterback battle could be interesting to right Matthew uh sluka for UNLV and either Donovan Smith or the Louisiana trans for Zeon Chris who I think actually fits Fritz's offense better uh but Donovan Smith I mean he's he's got a lot of tools my number on this is Houston minus 2.2 if it gets the UNLV 3 uh I'm going to lean them again Parker uh what about you tell me what are you seeing here yeah hate the hate the two here I think is the name on the on the game uh it's it's it's pretty pretty close for me so I'm not going to have a lean here uh I do like quarterbacks on both sides I will say if you have not watched Zeon Chris throw the football just go search some Louisiana film the physical mechanics of how he launches the ball with his body are amazing just astounding I I it's it's incredible and um you have to think Fritz who's had a great track record of developing some quarterbacks could really you know Iron some of that out and get him uh you know using that Cannon arm a little bit more precisely and that that's really interesting that being said I think Donovan Smith's a guy you might hear climb up draft boards in the mock draft World he's just got the physical tools we saw that he could game um there the issue for Houston what four new starters on offensive line is is going to be Troublesome you lose golden and brown in the wide receiving core and and that's hard to replace even if you can get some of those guys I I you know Houston is a true uh not quite year zero cuz nobody's year zero in the portal but Fritz is Fritz is rebuilding I think and uh they they're kind of getting guys in their way they've been blazing on the recruiting Trail but I'm not sure if it's there right now that being said they still should have the talent to beat UNLV Ricky White on the other side of the ball for for UNLV obviously you know one of the best wide receivers in college football great for for UNLV that he stayed had I believe seven games of 100 yards or more and finished the season with 86 and 97 versus Boise State and Kansas really good competition there as well so really really good wide receiver um for UNLV they bring in some power five transfers uh on the on the defensive side of the ball you know some drop down guys maybe to show up that era they or that side of the ball they were they were pretty rough uh 88 in EPA per pass last year Houston uh excuse me they they also on offense were 106 than rest rate over expected so well I I agree with Kyle I think we'll see more passing volume with them maybe some more quarterback run as well and uh and be able to spice up the offense a little more balance than just so run heavy and that kind of you know what watch UNLV they line up in trips it's going to be a big play Brenan Maran get mad at me for saying that out loud but they you know they ran trips almost fewer than anybody else but their explosive rate on trip plays was as high as anybody in in college football they're going to get Ricky White in a matchup Advantage they're going to confuse Defenders and go for them so watch that there I think this is fun this is when we're going to learn a lot about uh both of these teams here and kind of what Houston's going to put on the field and how much of last year UNLV can transfer over you uh you mentioned that they should be able to out Talent uh UNLV overall 247 average player Talent rating UNLV is number 88 Houston number 71 uh very rare to see a P4 team uh that has a talent rating in the 70s on that uh it's going to be going to be tight I am very interested to see this matchup [Music]