the huge surge in voter registration since vice president kamla Harris became the Democratic party nominee and its potential effect on the presidential election is a subject that's often underreported it's discussed here so we know that for the first half of this year voter registration didn't look great for Democrats we were seeing in underperformance we were seeing a lack of intensity and enthusiasm among the Democratic base what we've seen in the period immediately following the candidate change has in almost every state exceeded the numbers we saw post dos and in terms of a comparison to four years earlier to that same point in the 2020 cycle we're seeing in a lot of cases a tripling if not more of registration rates among young women of color especially young black women young hispanic women uh broadly young uh young voters overall women overall it's the same groups right it's the same groups that fueled the Democratic over performance in 2022 are even more intent right now in this election and so I think that's huge researchers were able to use a similar surge in voter registration numbers from two years earlier for comparison we can add context and to your point David about the type of analysis that Simon and I and others have been doing especially going back to 2022 and I think why we all had that confidence to go in and say this this isn't going to be a red wave election is relying on this additional data to say okay well what do we think turnout is going to look like what do these indicators look like voter registration was incredibly helpful in 2022 because we saw after dobs that surge in registration especially among women younger voters and voters of color especially in the states where we ended up overperforming places like Michigan Pennsylvania Arizona Nevada once again a material surge in voter registration would indicate that it can make a difference in an election during the debate we saw a quadrupling of voter registration checks on our system and then when Taylor Swift uh posted what he posted on Instagram and encouraging people to register to vote it went up even higher so that intensity and enthusiasm excitement you know maybe a sugar high in some ways is is is apt but that sugar high is producing measurable market gains what we know is if you register to vote and to lead up to election you have an 85% probability of voting in that election so these are real voters who are likely to vote in this election who frankly weren't engaged before and to the extent that President Biden was trailing in the polls back in July these were the voters who we needed back