all right i'm just realizing this doug nathan stephen i didn't send out the texter survey so we don't have the texture answers on who they think is going to win and who's going to have the over under i i like sent out the big survey for the thing and i i texted out some of my indiana defense research and i i forgot to text out hey tell us who you think's gonna win so that's uh that's my bad i did um i'll send it out to the texters and get their answers and then just text it back to them again if you wanna if you wanna get texts when doug forgets to do stuff for the pod maybe that's a selling point for the texts everything doug forgot to say on the pod for four dollars a month 614-350-3315 our records on stuff we suck we are all two three and one against the spread and picking games uh steven and i are two three and one on the over unders and nathan's won four and one of the over unders i was wrong on both things last time we picked up so i had a lead and i coughed it up my bad all right so the line is it moved nathan it moved from where it was initially yeah it opened it started at 19 yeah now 21. so 21 and the over under is 60 and a half and i will say actually has dropped to 59 and a half per the consensus for real what it was i thought it was 60 and a half i'm looking at looking at the updated number right now i'm looking at vegas insider you know it's the one all the way to the end it opened at 60 and a half if you go all the way to the end of the row 59 and a half okay thank you for showing us the way nathan the sarcastic so can't you read a betting chart we don't have betting in ohio yet i can't read a betting chart yet 59 and a half so here's my mathematical formula what doesn't change for me indiana indiana i i took all the teams except idaho again no offense to idaho that indiana has played and i found what those teams what their average point total was in the games when they didn't play indiana and then what they scored against indiana so in those five games indiana their opponents have scored 79 of what they scored in the other games they played now they might have played a bunch of crappy teams in the other games so of course indiana is a little better ohio state is averaging 48.5 points per game if ohio state scores 79 percent of what they're averaging they would score 38 points in this game so i'm just throwing that out there that sounds like a t-shirt thing t shoe should be proud of me for figuring out math as it relates to betting so nathan we'll start with you again the over under is 59 and a half because you look at the column on the end 21 ohio state favored by 21 what's your score so i did not do that math but i did factor into my score uh my the biggest the math i did do is to go look at ohio state's i'm sorry indiana's offense they're 11th in the big ten and rushing yards per game their 14th and quarterback rating they're the only team under 100 by comparison osu is a 187 75 and cj stroud's higher than that they've almost cj stroud has almost like doubled i think he actually has doubled indiana's quarterback rating this year they're 13th in passing yards per attempt ohio state's almost doubled them there 11 to 5.6 so i'm taking ohio state to win 38 to 16. i think i am respecting indiana's defense with that score a little bit i just feel like indiana's defense is gonna have one hand tied behind its back because i don't think this offense even against an ohio state defense that has something to prove is gonna be able to move the ball consistently enough to keep it away from ohio state enough that those explosive plays will not be able to to be a factor now that's under that that's covering the spread but it's under and as you said i've been horrible at picking the totals this year and four of the six ohio state games have gone over including all three games where the kickoff total was under 65. so i would advise people to remember that if they're thinking about following my lead and taking the under but i'm taking you under so you you researched why you've been wrong and then decided to keep being wrong oh i didn't i researched how wrong i have been i didn't research why i've been wrong if i knew that and we wouldn't be here okay so and you have them barely covering you have them winning by 22 when the line is 21. that's the number i would have probably picked i was in that range all week regardless of what the line ended up it crea it crept up towards where i was thinking anyway okay all right so we've got ohio state giving the points and the under for nathan stephen what you got i am clearly more pro ohio state's offense versus indiana's defense in this scenario than you two are but also my outrageous prediction put me in a you know in a corner a little bit 55 to 20 ohio state wins i'm taking the points with ohio state and taking the over i just think ohio state's offense is going to be able to do what it wants to an extent with indiana i'm not saying indiana won't have its moments but i don't think overall it'll be able to stop ohio state continuing to you know gain yards and put points on the board especially the cj styles had another week off of rest arrested whatever ailment that shoulder still might be going through along with what these weapons are i just want to clarify because you you said 45 in the first half and then i said something along the lines of well there could be defensive points and you're like well but i don't really think that'll be a factor you're thinking 45 offensive points first half yes okay mark it down if he's right i did nathan and i aren't even going to be on the postgame podcast it's just good from bloomington gloating we could just stephen could just list all his favorite things in the world he can have family numbers on the show it will just be stephen means time genius outrageous prediction ever 45 offensive points in 30 minutes against the 20th best defense in the country would be quite a thing okay so that is steven taking osu giving the points and the over so i'm going to do something so that i'm not doing it because of this but not none of us have the same thing i don't think i could talk about indiana's defense the way i talked about indiana's defense and then sort of not take indiana with the points i it's not an obvious choice to me because indiana's offense is so bad and i don't think ohio state's gonna score like 30 right so indiana's offense has to do a little something with getting 21 points god i'm right on it what is it it's 21 21. yeah it changes my score because i have to i have to have it happen no i got it 41 21 ohio state wins by 20. and that's like 41 i guess like a really good defense again like i don't like i'm not expecting anything to shut ohio state down i just think they'll make it a little bit more difficult than it's been the last couple weeks when they've been dropping 50 and 60 point bombs on people i'm actually like the indiana getting to 21 i mean we're all kind of in that same range that's i'm less sure about that can they score 21 i don't know i don't know if they can score 21 on anybody so i'm anticipating they have a little bit of a design scripted plays early on right maybe get a touchdown drive in the first quarter actually this is and my actual plan for this is like a devastating backdoor cover where ohio state's ahead like 41 to 14 and they have the third string guys on the field and indiana scores with two minutes to play and ruins everybody's night so i do that's a that's an ohio state and an over because i have 63 points with a 59.5 over under so we're all different i don't feel great about it but i think in the end my bottom line is i believe in indiana's defense which doesn't mean i think they're going to completely stop ohio state which means if ohio state does really well i'll have even more respect for this ohio state offense because indiana's got some players stephen anything to add before we get out of here it's interesting um it's it's basically two different two teams who are polar opposite colliding for the first time which is it's i don't want to call it a jv version of what an ohio state georgia matchup would look like but a very very very small sample size in the sense that you have a very defensive minded team who gets it done on the defensive end of the side of the ball with versus a team where if they're going to win a national title it's because of their offense and let's see what wins out in this situation in this situation it's not that wins out is not who actually wins the game it's can indiana do enough to you know maybe you know poke some holes in ohio state's offense even if they don't win the game ohio state would only score like 35 in the first half against georgia because they're better than indiana i i do think stetson bennett is like jack cut jack tuttle is like west coast stetson bennett yes so i think that's that's pretty close um nathan anything else i brought this up earlier that my looking back at like a game that might be similar style wise that 2019 michigan state game ohio state was up 17 to 10 with under four minutes to play in the first half then jk dobbins breaks off a long touchdown run they sneak an extra field goal in before half so they're up what's 27 to 10 and a half and then we score once more the rest of the game so 34 to 10. it's kind of like i i just see like some similarities here because that michigan state i mean try to name anybody who played on offense for michigan state in that game i mean my god uh that was the brian luwerky days so you know very similarly unimpressive offense at least by ohio state standards so i think that at the end of the day it's going to be just enough explosive plays for ohio state that they're going to be able to pull away from a defense that i do otherwise respect