See where Trump and Harris stand in key states, according to new polling

And just hours from now, Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Governor Tim Walz, will take the stage at a rally in Las Vegas. They'll be wrapping up a nearly weeklong tour through some of the most critical battleground states of this election. Harris campaign has seen a jolt of voter enthusiasm in the last three weeks since President Biden dropped out of the race and she became the party's presumptive nominee. She's new polling showing it's not just vibes. CNN's Harry Enten here to break that polling data down for us. Harry, what do these new New York Times polls show? I've heard from a lot of people about these days, a lot of people with eyes on these. Yeah, a lot of people. I think this was the type of polling we've been waiting for, Right. We've seen that national polling showing movement towards Kamala Harris. Now we get some swing state polling showing something very similar. All right. These are in the great like battleground states. We're talking about Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. You go back to me, what you see, you saw that a pretty tight race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, but you see more red than blue on the screen. Of course, all three of these states were states that Joe Biden carried last time around. You saw a three point lead for Trump in Pennsylvania, won well within the margin of error in Wisconsin. And then a one point lead for Biden, Michigan. But look at where we are now. This is the type of movement the Harris campaign has been looking for. Look, in Pennsylvania, a four point advantage. Wisconsin, a four point advantage. Michigan, a four point advantage. And in all three of these states, we see clear movement towards the Democratic nominee. I will point out we're still in no clear leader land in this particular instance. But the Harris campaign has to love this movement. Seven points in Pennsylvania, five points in Wisconsin, and three points in the great state of Michigan, all moving towards Kamala Harris. And she has the advantage in all three, although, again, no clear leader within the margin of error. Right. Important to keep that context in mind. Now, these aren't the only swing state polls that are showing Trump slipping. That's exactly right. You know, if we were just talking about The New York Times, Siena College would say, you know, hold on a second. Hold on. You know me, Jessica, You know that I like to see confirmation of an individual poll. So there were Ipsos polls that were conducted in these same states. And I want you to look, this is an aggregate, of course, across Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. You go back to June, what you see, you saw Trump on average up by two points, very similar to what we saw in The New York Times Siena College. Look at where we are now, the August margin between Harris and Trump. And look at what we see here. We see Harris up by two points. Again, no clear leader, but that four point movement very similar to what we saw in The New York Times Siena College poll. And this is what we're seeing across the polling data. It's not just one poll. It's not just one pollster. It's across pollsters. It's across polls. And of course, in these great, like battleground states, they're going to be so important. We're seeing this four point move with instead of seeing a small Republican lead, we're seeing a small Democratic Party lead. And in this particular case, a small Kamala Harris lead over Donald Trump, the reverse of what we were just seeing just two months ago. Yeah, And of course, the reason we care about these particular states so much is because of the Electoral College and how this all is decided in the fall. What does this data mean for the Electoral College more broadly, and how how that's playing out? Yeah, So, look, this is what we're talking about, the race to 270 electoral votes. And I want to give Kamala Harris those great like battleground states where she was leading, although within the margin of error. We're talking about Wisconsin, we're talking Michigan, we're talking Pennsylvania. If we give those three states to Kamala Harris, even if she loses in Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, which are far from guarantees, These, of course, were three states that Joe Biden carried last time around, but on which the Democrats been falling a little bit short of their 2020 numbers, at least in recent days, or at least when Joe Biden is in the race. But if we give Harris, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, look at that. She doesn't even need these Sunbelt battleground states. She gets to exactly 270 electoral votes. So the fact is, when you see those polls in those great battleground states and you see that Harris has turned the tide around from basically, you know, Donald Trump being slightly ahead to now. Harris being slightly ahead. That could be the entire ballgame. Even if she loses down South. If she wins up north, that's enough. That gets her to exactly 270 electoral votes. And that's why those New York Times Siena College polls, as well as those Ipsos polling data, why it means so much. And so here we are. We're probably I'm ballpark it here, 80 something days away from the election at this point. How much can things change from now until the election? Yeah. So we have seen a lot of movement in the last 2 to 3 months. And I just want to note that the movement that we've seen towards Harris could easily reverse itself. And the reason I say that is because how far off were the polls on August 10th compared to the final margin in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin on average in 2016? The average from the polls at this point to the final margin, nine points across those three states. How about in 2020? Look at that. The average movement from the final poll, from the polls at this point to the final margin, look at that, five points. So the fact is, yes, Kamala Harris may be slightly ahead right now. Again, though, a race which which there's no clear leader within the margin of error, but that could easily turn around in the final, let's say, a little bit less than three months to go. There's still a lot of campaigning to go. We got a Democratic National Convention to go. We probably have at least one more debate to go. So still a lot can change. But at the end of the day, Jessica, if you are the Democratic Party and you were looking at the polls two or three months ago and you compare it where you look now, I think for no doubt they'd rather look at this picture in August than the picture they were looking at. It may it's much more rosy picture for the Democratic Party. But still a lot of campaign ago, Jessica. That's right. All right, Harry Enten, always great to have you break it down for us. Thanks so much for that.