Nate Silver's latest election forecast indicates that former president Trump is slightly ahead of Vice President Harris as the Labor Day weekend approaches according to the updated silver bulletin's National polling tracker Harris is currently leading the former president by 3.8 points however her chances of winning the Electoral College have decreased Silver's forecast gives Trump a 52.4% chance of winning the Electoral College which is approximately 5 Points higher than Harris's 47.3% silver explained that this shift is partly due to the convention bounce adjustment applied to polls conducted during or after the Democratic National Convention the model assumes that Harris's current poll numbers are somewhat inflated similar to how it assumed Trump's numbers were inflated after the Republican National Convention silver also mentioned that if Harris can maintain her current standing for a few more weeks she is likely to see an upward Trend in the forecast as the model becomes more confident that she is out of the convention bounce period a recent Bloomberg news morning consult poll across seven Battleground states showed Harris leading Trump by an average of two points in a subset of likely voters in Arizona Georgia Michigan Nevada North Carolina Pennsylvania and Wisconsin she was ahead by one point within the poll's margin of error additionally a new survey from Emerson College polling and the hill found that Trump and Harris are virtually tied in each of the Battleground States since replacing President Biden as the Democratic party's Presidential nominee har haris has narrowed the polling Gap with the former president erasing the lead Trump had while campaigning against the incumbent president an aggregate of polls by decision desk HQ the hill currently places Harris at 49% which is nearly 4 Points higher than Trump's 45.1% the upcoming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Harris can maintain her current standing and regain momentum in the forecast