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the New Mexico Lobos will be a double digigit Underdog at home against an FCS team in week zero what's wrong with this picture well we're going to talk about it but before we do I got to tell you about a promotion we have available right now at wager talk.com for those of you who've already taken advantage of that early bird football special I'd like to thank you for your support for those of you who haven't now until August 31st you can get all my football picks that's College NFL and NFL pre season till the end of September for 249 bucks why would you be interested in that well over the summer I do my homework the results speak for themselves I'm 41 and 12 77% with college football in August and September the last two seasons you throw in NFL and NFL preseason we're still hitting 75% you can get that right now at wt.net long a fill your cart special any all access package is 30% off details in the ticker below of course as always no purchase necessary you're more than welcome to tune in for the free content the only thing I ask from you is that you take the time to smash that like button that will allow me to keep on putting out these videos now let's get into the free pick Montana State comes in as an 11 and a half Point favorite against New Mexico and a friend of mine likes to say Jesse think like a bookmaker and uh I think what he means by that is we got the FCS team coming in as a double- digit favorite uh the bookmaker might be trying to tell us something and uh that would be that this is the right side this this double- digit favorite that looks so uh suspicious but uh let's dig into it and see if we agree uh Montana state was eight and4 last year they bring back 14 starters including quarterback Tommy mot they call him touchdown Tommy he was uh he split action last year with another guy but uh he's got experience that being said this Montana State team they they lost to North Dakota State and South Dakota state by a combined five points last year and both those teams that I mentioned the the Dakota states have uh experienced playing FBS teams and really giving them go whereas Montana State certainly in recent years doesn't have that same history uh the last time they played an FBS team was in 2022 and they lost 68 to 28 to Oregon State a touchdown Tommy was the quarterback for that game he threw for 101 yards and three picks on nine of 18 passing not great uh he he might have matured a little bit as a quarterback since then but uh he he might be stepping up into a little bit tougher of a situation uh 11 and a half points I'm call me a skeptic uh Bronco mendenhal takes over as coach for New Mexico uh say what you want about Bronco mendenhal but uh 17 Seasons as a coach 16 of those Seasons his team went to a bowl I remember him 10 years at BYU those biu teams were usually competitive at the very least I think men and Hall is going to uh turn this program around I'm not going to say they're going to win a ton of games but at least be more competitive than an 11 and a half dog at home to uh a Montana State team so I'm not going to sign up for that uh bookmaker trying to tell us something logic here my inclination is that a New Mexico team that still scored 27 over 27 points per game last year should be able to get some points in this game and because the line is so heavy uh the team total is sitting at around 22 and a half so my play for this game is going to be the home dog team to Al over New Mexico over 22 and a half points uh if you like this video smash that like button subscribe to the channel you got anything to say to me even if it's nasty you hit me up in the comments below I'll get back to you as soon as I can