It's September 9th, 2024,
and there she blows, quite literally. Look at that thing spinning
around down there in the Gulf of Mexico, just soaking up all of the ocean heat content that
we've been hooting and hollering about. We finally got ourselves a real tropical threat out here in
the Gulf of Mexico. This is Tropical Cyclone Six, and as you can tell, we've got a lot of convective
towers going up around the center of circulation. It's a strengthening tropical system, and
it's going to continue to strengthen as it heads straight for the United States. Here's
the latest from the National Hurricane Center. Currently Tropical Cyclone 6 has 50 mile per hour
sustained winds and it's moving north-northwest at 5 miles per hour. This is going to be a tropical
storm more than likely by the time you're watching this video. It's gonna be Tropical Storm Francine
and then we expect it to become Hurricane Francine early Wednesday morning around 1 a.m. around 1
p.m. Wednesday. It's gonna be getting close to category 2 status more than likely as it gets
very very close to the Louisiana border and then sometime between 1 p.m. Wednesday and 1 a.m.
Thursday likely late in the evening on Wednesday this thing's gonna make landfall in Louisiana
somewhere alright now it could be as far west as extreme eastern Texas it could be as far east
as extreme southwestern that that little tip part of Mississippi but more than likely it's gonna be
somewhere in south-central Louisiana where we see a landfall from Hurricane Francine and then
from there this thing's gonna rocket up the Mississippi River up into the upper Midwest and a
lot Of us are gonna see some storms and some rain as a result of this thing But before we talk too
much about the inland effects here Let's go ahead and talk about the hurricane like how strong
is this thing gonna get what's it gonna be like when it hits land Here when it makes landfall,
well very quickly. It's gonna go from a tropical cyclone a tropical storm to a hurricane It's going
to undergo, not necessarily rapid intensification, but something very close to that, as it
enters an extremely favorable environment for cyclogenesis and just the strengthening
of hurricanes, mostly because of the ocean heat content and the sea surface temperatures
out here. So very quickly, this thing is going to go Category 1, Category 2 strength out
here in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we even saw this
thing eventually flirt with Category 3 status. However, this model, the HFSA,
and pretty much every other model, does start to weaken the storm a little bit
right before it makes landfall. Notice how we've got maximum winds around 100 mph here
on Wednesday, Sept. 11, early in the morning. And then by the time this is
making landfall in Louisiana, maximum winds are closer to 70-80 mph,
which is still a very strong storm. It's still a hurricane, but we're not looking at
the trend right now, at least in my opinion, where we see intensification all the way up until
landfall. It does look like there's going to be a moment of decreased intensity right before it
makes landfall. So it really all comes down to the next 48 hours. They're super critical, right?
How strong this thing gets over the next 48 hours is going to determine how much of an impact this
is going to have on the coast because it is going to drop off a little bit right before it makes
landfall. So if only ever makes it to Category 1 status, it may make landfall as a tropical
storm. You understand what I'm saying? But if it gets up to Category 3 or higher, this could
make landfall as a pretty intense Category 1 or Category 2. So that's one of the main things
that I'm watching right now. This is another very good model for tracking hurricanes,
the HAFSB. This actually shows maximum winds around 115 miles per hour early in the morning on
Wednesday. It's a little bit slower. It allows for more time over the Gulf of Mexico, but still, even
though this flirts with category three status, it makes landfall with winds around 80 miles
per hour. So we're looking at pretty much every model doing this, all right? We see it get really
strong and then it weakens right before it hits Louisiana. And if you're wondering why that is,
something that we talk about a lot here on the channel during hurricane season is wind shear,
okay? And that's what we're looking at on this map. This is showing wind shear where we've got
varying winds with height. This stuff is like kryptonite for hurricanes. All right. Hurricanes
are little babies. They can't stand it. They have to have the perfect little environment to thrive.
And if you throw like if you throw a tiny little gust of wind in the wrong direction in the
upper levels at a hurricane, it completely falls apart. And we've got more than a gust of
wind going on down here in the deep south. OK, we've got an incredible amount of wind shear. And
this hurricane is going to get caught up in that and that's likely what's going to cause it to
weaken upon Approach to the coast despite the fact that everything else is perfectly set up
for a strong hurricane here So that wind shear is going to kind of absorb our hurricane and
it's going to fall apart It's still going to be a very strong storm though I just I really
don't think that we have to worry about that rapid Intensification right up until landfall like
we have with a lot of the recent hurricanes that we've covered regardless life-threatening
storm surge strong winds, power outages, flash flooding, all that stuff's going to be on
the table here in portions of Louisiana, maybe even over into southern Mississippi as well. Once
this makes landfall, it's not over. This is going to continue to go up the Mississippi River once
again and it's going to cause some strong storms, maybe some severe weather in the Deep South and
some flash flooding here. A lot of these places are desperately in need of some rain. In fact,
the low-pressure center is going to be right over Memphis on Friday early in morning and this is
going to be dumping well over a couple inches of rain in the Memphis area and surrounding areas
and I know that you guys can't wait for that. But some of the rain might fall so quickly that
it becomes a little bit of a problem. In fact, between Jackson, Mississippi and Lake Charles it
wouldn't be out of the question to see four to six inches of rain. Some places between Lake Charles
and New Orleans could see up to a foot of rain in a very short period of time. even up there a
little bit farther north between Little Rock and Memphis for example, some of those places will get
more than four inches of rain in a day or less. So that could definitely lead to some flash flooding
problems even though we are in need of some rain in a lot of these places. And that's why we've
got a moderate risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding in the Lake Charles area down into
southwestern portions of Mississippi and a slight risk all the way up the Mississippi River and
mid-Mississippi River Valley up into the boot heel of Missouri as well. So you guys get ready
if you live in a flood prone area and you live anywhere in the yellow or especially the red Zones
make sure you watch those creeks and streams and rivers as we're gonna see a lot of water coming
out of Francine And I tell you what, it's not just Francine that's gonna be causing a sink We've got
other things to talk about out here in the Dagon Ocean as well We've got two areas of interest plum
way out in the main development region that is kind of being overshadowed right now by tropical
cyclone six so there's two more storms forming out here possibly two more hurricanes that we will
eventually be talking about probably around the time that we stop talking about Francine so keep
that in mind the seven-day graphical tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center
continues to show several hotspots that we need to be looking at. The good news is for the most part
a lot of the current modeling suggests that these storms are not going be a problem for land. A
lot of these are curving the storm out to sea, which is we love to see that. However, we've seen
this time and time again where in the beginning you'll get this look and something changes and all
it takes is a slight variation in the projected path here and then we've got a storm going into
the Caribbean. Or a storm that kind of escapes that trough and doesn't get sucked up to the north
and now we've got to be concerned about the east coast. I'm not necessarily letting my guard down
with this storm or any of the other waves that are coming off of Africa, so we're gonna be
keeping a close eye on these. But obviously the main focus right now is gonna be Francine in
the Gulf of Mexico. As far as inland forecasts go, nothing is really changing outside of what we've
already been talking about on the channel. We're gonna go through some roller coaster patterns
here where a lot of us are cool this morning, a lot of us are freezing to death. I know I was.
It's daggone cool out there for a lot of us, but that's gonna change. A lot of people who have
been experiencing this cool down now the six to ten day temperature outlook is kind of flipping
on us and we're gonna get right back into the the heat. We're gonna be much above average in the
Great Lakes region up into the northern plains upper Midwest that area and we're gonna get down
below average in the West. This has been one of the hottest and most humid summers in Southern
California's recent memory and there's gonna be a shock to the system there with some very much
below average temperatures over the next week or so. This is interesting it's gonna cause some
problems in the more distant future But for now, it's just another part of the weather story where
the headline is still Hurricane Francine. If Hurricane Francine makes landfall as a Category 1
hurricane or higher, we are gonna be live here on this channel. It looks like that's probably gonna
happen on Wednesday. That's why we have a 60% probability of doing a live stream on Wednesday.
So make sure you subscribe to the channel, turn notifications on. Of course, we'll have storm
chasers out there, live cameras, radar, all that good stuff. and we'll just hang out and hopefully
have a good time in an uneventful tropical system. But of course, with every hurricane, there's going
to be problems. There's going to be tornadoes, probably. There's going to be stuff that we
have to get serious about. So that's why we're going to be there. Don't be scared. Be prepared.
Obviously, if you have interests along the coast, you need to be taking this time to listen to your
local officials about potential evacuations. Storm surge is a big problem in a lot of these areas
where the storm is going to make landfall. And of course, flash flooding is going to be a big deal
with some of these storms. So keep that in mind. And hopefully this thing doesn't blow up
like a lot of other storms have recently. And we'll get past this one and we'll just start
thinking about the next one. That's all I have for you today. Thank you so much for watching.
I'll see you in the next one. Goodbye. Whoop!