Intro The draft shark,
Matt Schauf and Jared Smola of DraftSharks.com here to highlight some
key fantasy football sleepers of 2024. For you. Jared, before we get to the
players, I think it's important at this point to define the category. What does
sleeper mean in fantasy football? To me, it's a player going at least decently late. And
of course the later the better with a path to real difference-making upside. We're not looking for
the WR45 and ADP who's gonna become WR32. We want somebody like Nico Collins last season who went
from WR54 in ADP to WR7 in PPR points per game, and was also the cover boy of last year's
sleepers article on DraftSharks.com.
That was a fun year having a lot of Nico Collins.
Yeah, I mean there's no real sleepers nowadays. People are too obsessed with this fantasy football
game to have true sleepers that people have never even heard of. But it's really more late round
undervalued players that again, like you said, are gonna deliver and be difference
making assets for fantasy teams.
So then now that we've defined it, how do
you find sleepers in fantasy football? Well, you look through the later round ADPs like we're
talking about here for players with those upside paths. And that upside path is key. You don't
wanna just say, this guy's good. You look at 'em and see if you can figure out the way that
he does get to that ultimate upside. We've been doing that for you all off season with our main
sleepers article. It gets periodic updates, we've already updated it. Um, and we'll continue to do
so as we get more and now that training camps are opening. Another great and quick way that's new
to the site is the ADP market index that you can find on drafts shaks.com, which not only has
player ADPs in a variety of fantasy formats, it also quickly compares them to our projections,
which of course are applied to the format that you're viewing. And then you get a rating either
positive, negative or neutral on a player to indicate whether we think he's a value versus
market price, whether we think you should fade him because people are drafting him too early or
whether the market's just right on that guy.
Yeah, It's something I've always done in my
head, right? But it's nice to actually have a tool now that just does it, it's all right there
on the screen for me. Color coded like you said. So that's huge. Um, go back to talk about how to
find sleepers. I always think looking for guys that either have the talent or situation that
can help them easily out-produce their cost. And then if you can find someone like I think Nico
Collins had both last year, right? He proved to be a big time talent and the situation obviously
got much better with how good CJ Stroud was.
Yeah. And we will talk, we have talked, we will
continue talking about situations like that where we know that there's talent. We don't know how
the targets are gonna get sorted out and that's where you can find that ultimate upside. So look
at the ADP market index page. Get a quick view of that. Check out all these sleeper articles and
videos that we're putting out to talk about it. Now let's get to the good stuff. People come
here because they want to know player names who are some fantasy football sleepers for
2024. Jared, hit me with your first one.
Will Levis I'll kick it off with Will Levis, who is my
favorite late round quarterback targets. He, he wasn't awesome in real life last year,
you know, 58% completion rate as a rookie 30th among 39 qualifiers in pro football focus
passing grade still though he ranked 15th in fantasy points among quarterbacks in his eight
game stretch as a starter. And that was despite, you know, again, being a rookie, he was in a
super run leaning offense under Mike Vrabel and really had a pretty poor group of pass
catchers. Much better situation. And we talk about situation much better for Levis heading
into 2024. Mike Vrabel out as head coach Brian Callahan and his head coach. You're gonna hear
a lot about the Falcons making this, you know, big shift in philosophy from a run first offense
to a pass, first offense. I think Tennessee probably not as extreme, but it's gonna be a, a
big shift as they make that coaching change.
The Titans were never higher than 25th in
pass attempts in sixth seasons under Mike Vrabel. The Bengals under Callahan as offensive
coordinator. They were top 14 in four of his five seasons there. So I think you're at least gonna
go from like a bottom five team in pass attempts to a team that ranks middle of the pack in pass
attempts. That's obviously good news for Will Levis also has much better weapons heading into
this season. You know, Deandre Hopkins returns, but they add Tony Pollard a good pass catching
back. Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd. So this is, you know, I think at least now like a league
average pass catching core, it might even end up being an above average pass catching core. Last
point on Levis too, I think he does have untapped rushing upside. We didn't see it much last year.
He averaged just seven rushing yards per game, but he ran for over 1100 yards and 17 touchdowns
across his four college seasons. That includes 516 yards and nine touchdowns in 2021. He's 229 pounds
and this is a big guy and Derrick Henry's gone and Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are not big running
backs. So you could, you know, at minimum see Levis score some of those goal line touchdowns,
Everything that they've done this off season points to passing the ball more. And don't
worry Will Levis doesn't actually have mayo in his coffee every day. I was just kind of a
stunt thing. You don't even need to love Levis here to just see what the upside is. And of
course the range of where you're taking him, you'll lose nothing if he doesn't pay off
for you. All these pieces in this Tennessee offense are nicely priced and maybe underpriced
we're gonna talk about them in various formats, but I think buying into this Tennessee offense
to some degree, however you do it, is a good idea based on what it looks like they're gonna try to
do this year especially because you can get all of them at low risk levels. Speaking of low risk, I'm
gonna start with a late round tight end and that's Tyler Conklin Tyler Conklin, not somebody that you should draft
as your TE1, but somebody who could I think be one of those surprise finishers among the top 12.
Let's start with his cost, which is TE20. Even if you go by best ball ADP right now, which
is the most active draft market at this point in the year, mid Round 15 on underdog, that's a
format where everybody is drafting at least two tight ends. A lot of teams are drafting three. So
if anything, Tyler Conklin should be valued more there than he is by the general redraft market.
He's TE24 in current redraft ADP. So the value is already there. Now why bother with Tyler Conklin
besides where you can get him? He ranked 16th and 18th among tight ends in target share the past
two years, his two years with the Jets so far second and third among Jets in targets in those
two seasons after arriving in the same free agent class with CJ Uzomah. So they made the weird
signings of both of those tight ends for pretty big money at the same time, Conklin easily
emerged as the top receiver between them.
Uzomah is now somewhere else. There is a
path once again for Conklin to rank among the top three jets in Targets this year.
And he obviously gets a large quarterback upgrade through the past two years. It was Zach
Wilson, Trevor Siemian, Tim Boyle, Mike White, Joe Flacco, now it's Aaron Rodgers. I know it was
Aaron Rodgers for a minute and a half last year, but it's supposed to be all this year.
There's already been some talk about the connection between Aaron Rogers and Tyler Conklin.
Conklin finished TE18 last year in PPR with zero touchdowns. He didn't score a touchdown. He still
finished above where he is getting drafted this year. Ranked 13th at the position in targets, 11th
in catches 13th in yards. We're gonna get at least one surprise tight end among the final top 12. We
get that every year. A lot of times we get two of them. I think Tyler Conklin's one of the better
candidates to make that kind of leap this year.
Yeah, and we've looked into this, you know, kind
of what drives fantasy production at each position and touchdown scoring is huge at tight end.
So the fact that Conklin finished what you say was TE18 yeah, was zero touchdowns. I mean that's
where Rodgers, his ability, just making this jets offense better is gonna be huge for Conklin's
touchdown upside. You know, Aaron Rodgers, 6.2% career passing touchdown rate. That's tops
among all quarterbacks since the merger in 1970. So Rodgers throws touchdowns and I think you know,
Conklin's gonna be on the field. He's gonna score a touchdown this year. He is probably gonna score
a handful of touchdowns and if he does that again, he should pretty easily beat his ADP.
As long as Tyler Conklin doesn't pop up on Kendre Miller with being a bit underrated as a prospect. He had
a 60th percentile do rating in college, went to Liberty. So I didn't know anything about him until
he came into the league. He was a sixth round pick of the Patriots. 30% target share in his final
season at Liberty. So clearly by the end of his time there, he was a dominant target, led that
team in targets, catches and yards the previous year as well, despite missing a game that season.
Then he ran a 4.44 in the 40 as a prospect, not a big guy, but enough speed for his size.
Rookie year was impressive. 22nd in targets per route among 105 wide receivers who ran at
least 250 routes according to pro football focus. That's way ahead of any other patriot.
He led the team in targets and receiving yards despite missing three full games, leaving another
early and not reaching a 50% snap share in a game until Week 7. So he started minimally involved,
became more involved by the middle of the year and by the end led the team in targets as a
day three rookie. He topped 90% playing time in each of his final two games. There should be
better quarterback play this year. That's why Mac Jones isn't there anymore. That's why they didn't
just go to a backup. That's why they drafted one. That's why they brought in Jacoby Brissett. So
I'm not saying quarterback is a selling point, but it should be better than it was last year.
And then the top competition for Demario Douglas among Patriots receivers this year is rookie
Ja'Lynn Polk, who trailed Douglas by the way, in college in breakout age, college dominator
final year target share. I know he shared the field with Rome Odunze, so that played into that.
But you know, all marks that favor, Douglas, just in a direct comparison. He's also bigger and
not as fast. So they're different player types. So there's room for both of these guys to coexist.
You don't have to be against Ja'Lynn Polk to like Demario Douglas. And the other top competitor
Kendrick Bourne. He is coming off an ACL tear. So there's simply opportunity for a guy that you
are taking in wide receiver five or six range.
Yeah, there're just a lot of dudes in that
Patriots wide receiver corps right now. It's kind of a tough situation to figure out,
you know, before we get to training camp, preseason, that kind of makes it tough to feel
comfortable investing in any of them. But they're also all super cheap and like if Drake Maye is
the answer at quarterback for, or even if Jacoby Brissett gives them, you know, better play than
they got last year, which I think is possible, maybe even likely. Um, some of these guys are
gonna deliver. I do like Douglas. I'm with you, I think is rookie season was better than it looks
on paper because 1) Patriots passing game was just horrible, right? They were 28th in passing yards,
so it was tough for anyone to produce. And then Demario Douglas 2) Douglas only saw a 60 plus percent snap rate
in eight games last year. In those eight games, he averaged 4.1 catches per game. That's a
full season pace of 70 catches, which would be awesome if he can just give us that. And
then maybe again he takes a step forward in year two. Patriots passing game is better. So I
like Douglas especially in full PPR drafts.
Yeah, I mean most likely he's that guy
that kind of tops out in low WR3 range. But there's a path to him being one
of those surprise guys that finishes higher. Who's next on your sleeper list?
Curtis Samuel is one of my favorite wide receiver targets. As you get into the double digit
rounds of drafts. Someone's likely to emerge as a pretty big value from this Bills passing game.
This team has been top nine in past yards and touchdowns each of the last four seasons. It's
Stefon Digs and Gabe Davis gone. They combined for 42% of the team's targets last year. There
is a huge opportunity here. Samuel gets the three year $24 million deal from the bills and
free agency. He reunites with Joe Brady. I think this is key. I gotta imagine Brady was a pretty
big part of bringing Samuel to Buffalo. Brady was the Panther's offensive coordinator for Samuel's
best season in 2022. He finished 23rd among wide receivers in PPR points that year caught 77
balls, also ran it 41 times for 200 yards. I think that's big. It's, you know, rare to see
wide receivers pick up rushing production.
I think you know, Robert Woods, someone that used
to do it for the Rams. So it can be big, it can, you know, be a difference maker and I do think
Samuel is probably gonna do at least some of that for Buffalo. We've heard Joe Brady talk up
Samuel's versatility multiple times. I remember Samuel was a running back for part of his time
at Ohio State too. So it all kind of, uh, makes sense. I do think he's gonna be the starting slot
receiver for Buffalo. And I go back and look at, you know, the Bills haven't really had
a true slot receiver the past two years, but remember Cole Beasley? Put up some nice
numbers for the bills. That was with Josh Allen. I know Beasley's final two seasons, uh,
even came with Steph Digs and those two seasons. Beasley was WR27 and WR40 in PPR points even
with digs there, even with Beasley not doing anything on the ground. So I think that's a good
like, you know, starting point for um, Samuel's potential fantasy output. And I think he could
even exceed that because I think he's probably a better player. I think Cole Beasley, and again
he's gonna give you some of that rushing
Production. Samuel spent some time running back
at Ohio State. Like you mentioned, he started his career in Carolina as an outside receiver who
went deep then moved inside, which is a better spot for him in the slot. I think he probably
won't get as much rushing work as that season with Joe Brady because that was the year where
Christian McCaffrey only played in three games. But they clearly like him and they being at least
Joe Brady, um, getting some of that rushing work. And this is a team that has some available with
James Cook and Ray Davis leading the backfield. So I agree there's plenty of work all around and
and really what I like best about Curtis Samuel is there's definitely a path to him leading this
team in targets. We have no idea who is gonna lead the team in targets. But the top candidates
I would say are him and Dalton Kincaid.
You can say Keon Coleman. Curtis Samuel is
certainly further along and a safer floor Curtis Samuel option on that front than Keon Coleman is heading
into the season. So especially when you can draft Samuel later than Keon Coleman. I like him as
a target. Where he's going and where he's going gets close to upside mode range. Might even be
in it depending on your draft. And that's where we switch it automatically on in the middle of
your draft in the Draft War Room. And what upside mode does is highlight the ceiling projections
that we talk about in trying to find these late round sleepers. It adds value to that ceiling
projection. It adds value to the likelihood of the guy hitting that ceiling, which is another
rating that we set in the Draft War Room. And it boosts those guys in your 3D values in
your rankings up your board as you go.
Because later in your draft you want to target
these ultimate upside players and not worry about risk factors. Like what if he's too short?
What if Keon Coleman gets more targets, whatever, it doesn't matter at that point because if he
disappoints, he's not hurting you from the spot where you're drafting him. So upside mode switches
on and automatically halfway through your draft, you can turn it on earlier if you want. You can
turn it off at some point later in your draft if, I don't know, you feel like putting yourself
at a disadvantage because you're beating your league mates by too much at that point. But
it's available and it's highlighting the kinds of players that we're talking about here.
Like my final receiver that I'm gonna bring up and my single most drafted player in best
ball so far, that is Marvin Mims. And we've talked about some other guys as prospects.
The first selling point on Marvin Mims is that a year ago he was a strong prospect coming into the
league. He broke out at 18 and a half in college at Oklahoma. He wasn't playing at Liberty. He
went to Oklahoma and he immediately was like, "throw me the ball I'm gonna produce." Was an
early declare for the draft after three years at Oklahoma. Averaged 19.5 yards per catch for his
college career. Despite declining quarterback play there. Denver clearly liked him last year. They
drafted him in round two. It was also the first pick they had because of that Russell Wilson trade
and the very first pick ever of the Sean Payton era. And it was not even like wide receiver was
a need position. They had Courtland Sutton, they had Jerry Judy, they had a healthy Tim Patrick
at that point among other wide receivers.
They clearly just said we gotta get Marvin Mims
on this team. Now the thing that people are going to say in contrary to that is Payton never really
got Marvin Mims going last year. Even when he said I gotta get Marvin Mims the ball more. He never
really did it. He has scolded himself publicly multiple times for doing that, including this off
season. He is like, "yeah, it's my fault I didn't get Marvin Mims involved enough." Maybe that
stays the narrative on Marvin Mims. I obviously don't know. We'll see as we get into the season
if it stays that way. But if the coach is like, I gotta get this guy the ball more, I'm gonna be
like, all right, I believe that he is gonna try to get this guy the ball more. And now Jerry Jeudy's
gone. So that easily opens up opportunity. And then people are like, yeah, but they drafted Troy
Franklin who played with their new quarterback in college. Yeah, they did -- in round four. So
I'm gonna go ahead and bet on last year's round two pick. Over this year's round four pick.
Yeah. And listen, I like Troy Franklin, but I think Denver's off season actions sort of back up
at least wanting to give Mims an opportunity to win the No. 2 wide receiver role. 'Cause all they
did was add Troy Franklin and sign Josh Reynolds. Neither of those guys, I don't think, are good
enough to really prevent Mims from carving out a big role if he's good enough. I do think he's good
enough. I'm shocked he continues to go -- he has so much more upside than, you know, 20 guys that
go ahead of him in drafts. And you mentioned the new quarterback there. Bo Nix likely their Week 1
starter. I know kind of the knock on him is that he didn't throw deep often in Oregon, which is
true. But what I like is when he did throw deep, he was near the top of college football last
year and most efficiency metrics went on those throws 20 plus yards downfield. Mm-Hmm.
. So I do think Peyton will have him throw deep more often. I do think he's
capable, which is big for Mims. 'cause you know, Marvin Mims he is a guy that can get downfield with that
Speed. Yeah. And I know Bo Nix is familiar with Troy Franklin, but based on where both players
were drafted, I think the NFL has told us that Marvin Mims is a better version of what Troy
Franklin is as a player. And the other thing that I didn't mention so far and what I think gives
the ultimate upside to Marvin Mims and makes him more than just a best ball target: Courtland
Sutton's good, but he's not excellent. Even before he left college, he got passed his senior
season for targets by some guy that transferred onto his team and has not made a splash in
the NFL since then. It's within the realm of possibility that Marvin Mims beats Courtland
Sutton in targets this season. So that would be the ultimate upside case where, you know, maybe we
get Marvin Mims into like the top 25 or something, but at the range where he's going, I don't have to
say this is exactly where it ends. I'm gonna say, I'll take the talent and I'm gonna see
exactly where it goes from here.
Yeah, and he's not even a guy that needs big
volume to, you know, potentially finish his top. The guy averaged 11.4 yards per target
last year. So he already kinda showed us the efficiencies there. He just needs to find
more playing time and a a few more targets.
And if he does, he will find it in my lineup.
The Draft War Room is more than just upside mode. It's more than just 3D projections. It's
more than just the values we talked about. It will sync directly with your Fantasy football
league. It will pull in your specific scoring and lineup settings. It will track every single
pick as you draft. Constantly updating your pick recommendations at every turn to make sure that
you have updated information. You can also click onto player pages from the Draft War Room. You
can see all the little icons just indicating extra stuff. It shows bi-week conflicts. Everything's
at your fingertips as you draft. You don't have to go searching for it. And if you're wondering
if you're going to be able to handle all this info to handle this Draft War Room as you go,
if you're wondering if you're gonna be confused, don't worry. We got the mock draft trainer built
into it so you can practice it before it's game day. You will be all set, you'll be comfy and
you will have practiced all of these strategies, targeted these players we've talked about seeing
how it's gonna go. So you're ready for whatever happens on draft day. Because at Draft Sharks,
all we want to do is be your unfair advantage.