Tracking Francine: 1 p.m. update as heavy rain hits Memphis

e e e good afternoon everybody abc2 24 meteorologist Corey Smith here it is an ABC 24 weather impact day here across the Midsouth we're keeping an eye on what's left of France scen now uh moving across the mids South so let's break down what we're seeing because uh some of the biggest impacts starting to really move into the Memphis Metro really right now so I'm going to talk about what that impact actually is going to be and it's between now and about 9900 p.m. Heavy Rain Gusty winds and that means the potential maybe some sporadic power outages uh just make sure that you're staying aware of what's going on as you head into the rest of the afternoon and evening and maybe keep some batteries charged in case they do lose power just of last check um as MLGW reporting around 10,000 power outages or 10,000 people without power here in the Memphis Metro so that number is actually going up quite a bit and that is because we are seeing probably the heaviest rain and the gustiest winds uh moving through this is i240 near Lamar and Getwell you can see quite some heavy rain and the camera's been bouncing every now and then as you get some of those gusts pushing through and this is probably where things are going to Peak for today in the next 1 to three hours across the Memphis Metra so let's get you right over to the radar show you what's going on right now you can see this band of heavier rainfall really setting up right along the Tennessee Mississippi border we do have some pretty heavy and steady rain as well in eastern Arkansas and North Mississippi you're seeing some lighter precipitation now so this band actually moved through within the last hour place like Lefay County up to Holly Springs Tunica you're seeing at least the end of this band so let's put some motion on this I'm going to show you what's going on here across the Midsouth and there's that circulation associated with this storm but all of our moisture is moving in from the East and as we get into the next couple of hours we're going to watch where this band really sets up because as this storm slowly moves to the north and west it's going to Pivot a little bit and wherever we see the slow down occur is going to be where we have the best chance of some flooding rain going to zoom in right now on the Memphis Metro show you what's going on because this is pretty much where we're seeing some of the heaviest rainfall right now uh Downtown Memphis uh just to the South as well of South Memphis you're seeing some pretty heavy precipitation if we take some queries of this you're going to see the rainfall rates with this pretty impressive around one uh to two in per hour and if this sets up over the Metro for an hour or so we could start to see some flash flood warnings the National Weather Service as of right now hasn't pulled the trigger on that we haven't seen enough frame but we'll take a look at the map because some of us have already picked up a couple of inches of rain so far today this is probably the heaviest stuff though that we are expecting of the afternoon moving through the Memphis Metro right now west Memphis you're about to see things pick up here in the next couple of minutes Cordova and into Bartlett Germantown Lakeland over towards cerville you're seeing some of that heavier precipitation with this band as well and this is where we've been seeing some of the stronger wind gust associated with the system I want take a bit of a bigger look and show you what's going on with uh what is tropical depression Francine as of right now and put this into uh motion the last couple hours show you uh pretty much this system very slowly moving to the North in Northwest so the center of the Storm still in central Mississippi so we do have the chance of some more heavier rain over the next couple of hours but the strongest band as of right now with the storm moving through the Memphis Metro so that's how we decided to come in and do this live stream we are uh live right now on abc4.com also YouTube and Facebook and I will say with all this moving through we have had some schools releasing early you can go to abc4.com we have a full list of those school closures and uh early releases on our website you can tune into that or go into that after we finish this live stream here because we want to make sure that you know what's going on over the next couple hours and that you are prepared so let's pull up the track of the system uh like we said tropical depression Francine and right now expected to turn into a Remnant low as we get into this evening still sustained winds of 25 to 30 miles hour but notice Friday evening still in Northeast Arkansas so this is not moving anywhere we're not going to get rid of the cloud cover in fact we're going to keep the chance of maybe some showers around as we head into your Friday but the bulk of the heavy rain and the threat with that is today in fact we've canceled that weather impact day for Friday morning it's really just today that we are watching for the potential of some heavy rain and if you watched our earlier live stream notice these rainfall totals over the last 24 hours have gone up quite a bit we're now up to 2.65 Ines of rainfall in Memphis 1.95 in Holly Springs Corinth you're at .92 Ines of rain Mark tree 3.75 in fact we saw a little bit of a band setting up right here going into cross and uh Point set counties that looks to be the highest rainfall as of right now two to four Ines of rain already before some of this heavier stuff has moved through so my bet outside of the Memphis Metro where we could see some flash flood warnings I think it's up this way where we do have this band that did set up earlier on in the day Covington 9.97 Ines of rain and Dyersburg you're at 08 so that's our dry spot as of right now with that being up to the north uh that's expected we're going to see this precipitation slide to the north as you go throughout the today eventually seeing more of that up yourway in Dyer and Crockett County uh but I think another 1 to three in of rain expected depending on where you're at let's talk about uh the alerts that are out from the National Weather Service the first one here is going to be a wind advisory so pretty much the entire viewing area shaded in tan here that's because wind gust could get up to 40 m hour as you get through the afternoon and into the evening that could lead to power outages which we've already seen some here in Shelby County like I said about about 10,000 people without power according to MLGW just before we went live here on this stream we also have a flood watch for the entire viewing area for today and that is due to the Heavy Rain that's moving through we could see some flash flood warnings being issued so I want to show you hour by hour on our forecast model what to expect as you go forward it shows this heavy rain in fact the band itself is a little bit further south so we're seeing things a little bit faster than this model is showing us but you notice the very center of the system moving through Lafayette County up towards Marshall County right around 400 p.m. and then moving into the Memphis Metro around 5 to 6 so that Gusty wind threat and heavy rain threat looks to be through about 700 p.m. here in the Memphis Metro after that we probably start to dry things out and if you're north of I40 this heavy rain potential is going to last through about 900 p.m. if you're in North Mississippi around 5 to 600 p.m. you might be quieting things down at least rainfall wise we're going to stay Breezy I think throughout the viewing area through tonight tomorrow though won't be much of an issue but like we said this is going to just stall out in the area so the chance of some light showers especially in Northeast Mississippi as you go into your Friday morning and that's going to last through your Friday we can't rule out some light rain it's going to be very cloudy in many locations uh not expecting temperatures to get too warm you can see this is 3 pm. some of us still in the 60s according to this model as you get into your Friday afternoon so definitely a dreary day once again tomorrow but just not as wet we'll watch for your Saturday maybe some clearing especially out west into Arkansas but keeping mostly cloudy conditions maybe some light showers still going into your Saturday as the system just sticks around so rainfall totals expected through the rest of today looks to be around another 1 to 3 in of rain across the viewing air so that is the concern with the flash flooding and we're seeing some of that move through the Memphis Metra right now and that's probably our biggest threat outside of power outages these are current wind gusts so this is these are observations of what we've seen Memphis in the last 20 minutes or so 32 m per hour wind gust 28 in Dyersburg 29 in tuna 29 in Oxford 24 miles per hour in Corinth 23 in Boliver and 25 in Clarksdale we'll Contin continue to see these 30 to 40 mph wind gust as you go throughout the rest of tonight uh by about 8: to 9:00 p.m. we'll start to see those die down in fact if we take a look at our forecast model you'll see as you go throughout the rest of today uh that these winds will eventually go away into the overnight hour so this is 4 p.m. pretty close to where we are right now wind wise around 20 to 30 miles hour it looks like as you get into the evening 5: to 8:00 p.m. could be where we see some of those wind G are a little bit higher closer to 40 m hour especially north of the Memphis Metro is what our model has been pointing here these dark Blues are showing tropical storm Forest wind gusts at least uh and it looks like that's been pretty consistent with the model for today it's been really north of the Memphis Metro where that best chance of the higher gusts are but I think regardless with all this rainfall 20 to 30 m per hour wind gust could cause some sporadic power hges across the viewing area and as you into your Friday early morning you're going to notice things starting to weaken and the wind really not an issue as we head into tomorrow so I want to show you guys the timeline real quick um we updated this earlier this morning things are staying about the same and I'll move the cart out of the way so you can see the whole graphic here uh but pretty much what we're looking at right now uh between now and 900 p.m. the chance of wind flooding and power outages that's really uh the primary threat with what we're looking at right now the main impacts why we have that impact day going on here at ABC 24 we can't rule out a straight tornado 2: to 700 p.m. today I don't think that that's going to be much of an issue most of the instability uh that we're expecting with this storm out actually in Alabama so we have that on there just in case we see something try to spin up but I really don't think that's going to be a huge issue for us so I'm going to switch us back to the radar we're going to take a look at things since like we said uh we are seeing uh right now uh the biggest impacts in the Memphis Metro that we're going to be seeing pretty much the whole day at least from rain rainfall wise uh so let's go ahead and take a look that this band that's moving through Shelby County um out to fet County just south of Oakland north of cville on 269 some of the heaviest rainfall in fact let's take a look at the rainfall rates with this this is going to be um right near Fisherville I'll put a a a mount on here so this is about 1.6 in per hour so if we see this for about 30 45 minutes straight maybe up to an hour we could see enough rainfall especially in some of these more urban areas where we could get some of those flash flood warnings triggered as we get a little bit later on closer to 2 to 230 I think that's when we would start to probably see some of those warnings issued this is not moving very quickly in fact let me put a track on this right now it's been moving right around 20 miles per hour so moving to the north northwest thereabout so I'll extend this just a little bit here um and move the cart out of the way once again so we can take a look at those timings 129 uh which is pretty much right now in downtown that's going to continue Arlington 153 Millington uh right around 2:05 p.m. uh we're talking about Drummond are around 2:30 2 p.m. and Covington eventually by 250 so that's around 3:00 where we're going to see at least this band of rain there is still more rain to the South the center of the storm like we said is in central Mississippi so we still has some ways to go before this heavy rain threat uh starts to die down but this is really the first round of heavier rain that we're seeing this afternoon tied with some of those stronger wind gusts uh we're seeing 20 to 30 m per hour winds and looks like those MLG W num numbers are really starting to go up in fact let me pull that up for you uh guys right now here on my computer we can give you the latest number on that it looks like um currently here we're at 10,508 customers being affected here in the Memphis Metro that number will likely go up a little bit here as we see this band working through the Metro those Gusty winds and heavy rain potentially causing some tree limbs to come down is mainly the the big culprit with what we're looking at so I'm going to uh put a loop on this and we're going to walk over real quick and see if we have any questions that we can take um and then we'll go over what you can expect for the rest of afternoon before closing things out so um let me take a look real quick for you guys um and see if we have any questions it doesn't look like we have anything as of right now so what we'll do we'll recap everything one more time and then we'll close out the live stream like I said um we do have a list of closings and school um schools letting out on abc4.com make sure to check that out we're updating that as the schools get back to us as they make that decision but right now we are watching probably the heaviest rain we've seen so far the this afternoon pushed through the Memphis Metro with tropical depression Francine this is really where we're going to start to see that flash flood warning risk come into play here um over the next one to three hours I would say in the Memphis Metro as you continue to watch this system rotate in central Mississippi so I'll turn on the larger regional radar view you can see uh just North here of Granada getting close to to Clarksdale this is the center of rotation right here west of uh I55 about to move into our viewing area so we're talking about equipment County here is essentially where we're going to see that Center of rotation moving in that is pretty much there and North is where that Heavy Rain risk is going to be as we head into the next couple of hours if you are north of Memphis uh places like Dyersburg up to Covington and Truman still got a couple hour before this band makes it that way but you can see there's been some heavier rain that we've been watching really since this morning this is that band that set up uh just north of in the northern portion of Shelby County towards Tipton County out towards uh Point s and cross counties where be picked up around two Ines of rain uh so far already today so uh definitely the big story here all this rainfall which we desperately need we're in a drought um this is good news for the drought unfortunately it's all coming in one day so there is that flooding risk but uh we could definitely use this rain and I'm going to pull up this timing graphic for you guys one more time just to give you an idea what to expect that heavy rain next 1 to three hours here in the Memphis Metro before Things become a little bit more spotty but the Heavy Rain threat for really the entire city and the entire viewing area through about 900 p.m. will be watching for at least the potential of flooding power outages and Gusty winds as that Center rotation gets a little bit closer to the Memphis Metro we cannot rule out the potential of a stray tornado I don't want to spend too much time on that cuz I don't think that's a huge issue it's really going to be about those winds and rainfall for the next couple of hours but of course we're going to keep you up to date we got chief meteorologist Daniel Moss coming in and just a little bit she's going to have the latest forecast for you guys we'll keep you up to date online as well and also we'll be on air at 5: and 6 p.m. here on ABC 24 but we're going to end the live stream here thanks so much for watching guys and stay dry over to the next couple of hours