the senate elections are just as important as the presidential elections today we are going to review with you the shocking results of the latest polls in a short and concise way by the end of this video you will understand everything very clearly let's get started let's go state byst state and fill in the Senate map based on recent polling data and other key factors that are likely to shape the results of the 2024 Senate races we begin on the West Coast where Democrats are expected to hold on to several seats with relative ease Hawaii a reliably blue state will almost certainly reelect incumbent Maisy hono as she seeks her third term no recent polls are available but Hawaii's strong Democratic history allows us to label this as a solid Blue State similarly Washington's Democratic incumbent Maria canwell is expected to win her fifth term in office by a comfortable margin the most recent from public policy polling gives her a commanding 23-point lead over her Republican Challenger Dr rul Garcia given this margin we can safely categorize Washington as a solid Blue State in California one of the nation's largest and most politically influential States the race to replace retiring Democrat Diane Feinstein will likely see Adam Schiff take on former LA Dodger Steve Garvey the Republican nominee according to polling from the public policy Institute of California shiff leads by an overwhelming margin of 31 points continuing the state's solidly Democratic Trend unless something drastic changes California can also be counted as a safe Blue State in Nevada the situation is more competitive Democratic senator Jackie Rosen is seeking reelection after a narrow win in 2018 where she defeated incumbent Republican Dean heler by Five Points in 202 4 she faces Republican military veteran Sam Brown recent polls such as the one from rufo and Welton strategies show Rosen leading by a slim margin of just Five Points while Brown has been steadily gaining ground for now Nevada leans Democratic Montana typically a solidly Republican state in presidential elections presents an interesting Senate race this year incumbent Democrat John tester is running for a fourth term in a state where Donald Trump won by 16.4 points in 2020 tester's opponent Republican Tim sheii is a retired Navy SEAL who has been gaining momentum the most recent polling gives sheii a five-point lead making Montana a lean Republican state for now however this will be one of the races to watch closely as we get closer to election day Wyoming is among the most Republican states in the nation and there is little doubt that incumbent Republican John barasso will secure reelection no recent polls are available but given the state's strong conservative lean Wyoming can be safely classified as solidly read Utah's senate seat is open in 2024 as Mitt Romney has chosen not to run for reelection however the Republican party is likely to hold on to this seat with congressman John Curtis emerging as the favorite to replace Romney Utah has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1977 and no recent polls suggest a shift in that pattern this state can be considered safely Republican Arizona is a fascinating Battleground in 2024 with incumbent Senator Kirsten Cinema switching from Democrat to Independent this race initially looked like it would be a three-way contest however Cinema has opted not to run leaving the field to Democrat Ruben galgo and Republican Ki Lake the former gubernatorial candidate polling from ERS College gives GGO a four-point lead but this race is expected to be very close for now Arizona leans Democratic but the outcome is far from certain in New Mexico Democratic senator Martin Hinrich is running for a third term after securing 54% of the vote in a three-way race in 2018 his main Challenger is Republican Eli Dominguez but Hinrich currently leads by four points in recent polls while the race is competitive New Mexico leans Democratic for the moment Texas Senator Ted Cruz is running for a third term and despite Democrats efforts to flip the state in recent Cycles the GOP has gained ground in recent years in 2018 Cruz narrowly defeated Betto oor by less than three points but the latest polling shows Cruz with an eight-point lead over Democrat Colin all red as a result Texas can be classified as likely Republican moving into the deeper south Mississippi and Tennessee are reliably Republican states Mississippi's Roger wicker is expected to win his third term easily despite no recent polling data given the state's strong Republican lean similarly Tennessee's Marsha Blackburn seeking her second term has a 21-point lead in the latest polls making tennessy a solidly red State as well Florida has undergone a significant shift to the right over the last few election Cycles with Republican senator Rick Scott narrowly winning in 2018 by a margin of just 12,000 votes the most recent polling from the University of North Florida shows Scott leading by four points but earlier polls have shown him with leads as high as 17 points for now Florida leans Republican but the margin could tighten as the race progresses in Virginia incumbent Democrat Tim Cain is running for a third term after securing 57% of the vote in 2018 while Virginia has been closer in presidential elections Kane holds a 10-point lead over Republican honga in the most recent polling making Virginia likely Democratic West Virginia is a state to watch closely as Democratic senator Joe Mansion has decided not to run for reelection this gives Republicans an excellent chance to flip the seat with the latest polls showing Republican Governor Jim Justice leading Democratic nominee Glenn iiot by 33 points as a result West Virginia is considered a solid Republican state in the midwest North Dakota and Nebraska are reliably Republican North Dakota's Kevin Kramer is expected to win reelection easily with a 37-point lead in recent polls Nebraska also features two Senate races both expected to go Republican Missouri's Josh Holly is also looking strong with a nine-point lead in his bid for a second term making Missouri likely Republican Minnesota's Amy kachar a democratic incumbent seeking her fourth term is expected to win easily with recent polls giving her a 20-point lead over potential Republican Challengers Minnesota remains a solid Blue State the Rust Belt presents some of the closest and most competitive Senate races of 2024 in Wisconsin Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin is defending her seat and the latest polling shows her with an 11-point lead making Wisconsin likely Democratic Michigan where Senator Debbie staban now is retiring is a close race with democratic congresswoman Alysa sakin leading Republican Mike Rogers by five points for now Michigan leans Democratic in Ohio incumbent Democrat shered Brown is facing a tough reelection battle in a state that has shifted toward Republicans in recent years Brown leads his Challenger Bernie morraine by four points in the latest polls but Ohio remains a lean Democratic State the Northeast remains a stronghold for Democrats in 2024 in Pennsylvania incumbent Bob Casey Jr is running for reelection and the most recent poll gives him a five-point lead over Republican Dave McCormack Pennsylvania leans Democratic for now Maryland and Delaware are also safely Democratic with incumbents expected to win comfortably New Jersey's Bob mende is retiring but Democratic representative Andy Kim is expected to keep the seat in Democratic hands with a seven-point lead in recent polling in New York Kirsten gillibrand is Seeking a third term and despite a lack of recent polling New York remains solidly Democratic in New England Democratic incumbents are also expected to hold their seats Vermont's Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren are running for reelection and are widely expect to win by large margins Rhode Island and Connecticut with Sheldon White House and Chris Murphy running also look to remain blue Main's Angus King an independent who caucuses with Democrats is also expected to win re-election easily with recent polls showing him with a 29-point lead final Senate map based on current polling and state-by-state Dynamics Republicans are positioned to take control of the Senate with a narrow 51 49 majority however many of these races remain close and the final outcome could hinge on shifts in public opinion as the election draws nearer thank you for tuning into election insights don't forget to like comment and subscribe stay informed and stay tuned for more see you in the next video