and another test for the markets Tesla alphabet are going to be the first of the mag seven names to report earnings that's happening tomorrow on Tuesday this after the NASDAQ slid in its largest weekly loss since April last week can the earnings reports maybe meet the Street's high expectations and reverse some of this I I guess turmoil that we've seen play out within a lot of these tech stocks here over the last several trading days to discuss we want to bring Abby Yoder JP Morgan Private Bank US Equity strategist Abby it's great to see you so talk to us just about this rotation that we have seen over these L out of these larger cap Tech names into the smaller cap names what do you think that how do you see that playing out here this earning season well so I think there's a couple of things that are driving that I would say the biggest move has really been because of the rate Outlook right like we got that softer CPI print and that's exactly what small caps needed and then on top of that we did get some good economic data right retail sales came in good um I think to your point on what can get it to continue to work is really going to be around earning season right and I think and this is really like I think both the rest of the market so the 493 and then small caps I think they'll tend to perform the same and right now there's some angst going into earnings like okay the mag 7 have been driving a lot of the earnings growth and the market generally speaking are we going to get the the prints from the rest of the market this quarter that's going to get that part of the market to start working and I think it's really important this is the first quarter in five quarters that we're expecting to see the remaining 493 have a POS positive earnings growth picture right so the the mag EV has really been driving it this is that point in time where we're actually expecting a inflection to positive and I think you get that that's when you can see things like the 493 and small caps continue to outperform what do you think then is the one thing investors should be looking at to sus out the success rate of that 493 I think about something like McDonald's keeping their you know $5 value meal is maybe a sign that there's consumer weakness that could be bad for some of the consumer names what do you look at well so I think on to your point on consumer weakness I think the consumer is slowing right and I think what we saw through retail sales was that it's slowing but it's still healthy right like we're starting to see 2 Q GDP expectations revised higher above that 2% let's call it Trend growth rate um and I think what we need right now is not necessarily from all these names to beat and raise we need them to beat and at least maintain right like I think that's really the important thing and right now earnings worth expectations for the market are around 99 and a half per we would imagine you start to see I don't know we would imagine a beat rate of around 5 to 7% for the market getting to to around 10 to 11% earnings growth for the quarter I mean when it comes to some of that rotation that we have seen in the market how much of that is because of the underperformance expectations for the fed maybe we are going to see this broadening out here this earning season versus what we're seeing on the political side of things and some of those expectations there factor that out for us I mean there's that's the thing like over the last 3 weeks it feels like there have been all of these different things that are causing the market to move and it's really hard to disentangle them to your point um but like just looking at the performance of small cap right so they had that 5-day move where they were up 11% which was like a four standard deviation move for them that was driven I would say primarily by CPI and then kind of at the same time coincident with that you had this increase in what was going to be perceived to be a red wave right and that for small caps is taken as okay maybe less regulation maybe more m&a and so I think that added fuel to the fire in terms of the positive View and then there's also a technical aspect there was a lot of shorting of small caps because they had on perform so much so getting some of that kind of unwind and positioning I think also played a part but again I think going forward it's really going to be around the fundamentals as it relates to to um the outperformance going forward vice president Harris I I want to talk about her record on Tech for a little bit because there's this idea that she could also potentially be more favorable to some of the tech companies and unwind some of the regulatory pressures a little a little bit do you think that's something that Tech investors should already be thinking about looking into well it looks like the market thinks that right because this morning you are seeing more of that onwi you're seeing the NASDAQ up more than small caps they're both up I think what is really happening as it relates to the market is okay maybe we're getting less of a likelihood of a red wave which means maybe less intense policy changes and more of you know kind of Middle Ground if we get some split Congress or um with whomever takes the the executive branch so how are you positioned how would you advise investors uh be positioned given all of that uncertainty kind of given the fact that there are so many unknowns still uh playing out at this point well I think this is I think the last three weeks is just indicative of why You Want To Be Steady as you go right you want a diversified portfolio across different parts of the market um you know Tech was leading now it's not now we've got small caps having exposure to all of these different things makes a lot of sense I think when we're thinking about the political landscape we're not trying to guess right now what's going to happen because things change so quickly it tradeing a diversified portfolio I think as itates to the election you know things like spending on defense will probably be bipartisan so thinking about we upgraded Industrials we think that names in the industrial sector will benefit from that and then being tax efficient right as it relates to our clients thinking about that