Mets/DBacks TOTAL + MLB + NCAAF 8/29/24

sup guys one in one yesterday and the way it played out with the prices that I paid on those it wound up being a break even day so I mean I'm not happy about it the first play was an easy win Spencer arag Getti thrown another really nice game for the Astros 10 nothing win for the Astros he completely out outpitched Taiwan Walker easy win you love to have games like that then the other game I think I handicapped correctly Corbin Burns he didn't have best game but he certainly outpitched Walker berer who had another subpar start to say the least and Baltimore out hit the Dodgers in the game Dodgers only had five hits I believe in the entire game and they scored six runs all six of them came off of Burns and five of them were unearned on three Baltimore errors I believe what can you even do about that man your Fielding just completely shits the bed doesn't hold up their end of the bargain at all five unearned runs I mean really it's just very frustrating that's a frustrating loss right there uh with the Orioles getting them at plus money too which like I said like losing that one is less detrimental than losing that way on a favorite but it's still it really irritates me all right we move on to today and this is I'm going to have one baseball play and college football is starting today which I'll talk about I know I saw haven't put on my week one video yet which is mostly going to be focused on Saturday games I still don't even know what my plays are actually going to be but I looked at today's card and it's mostly FCS team so I'm not really too interested well it's FCS versus FBS mostly which I'll talk about in a minute I'm not totally interested in any of that uh in baseball I will point out Cincinnati is on the verge of getting swept by Oakland which would be pretty embarrassing but I do kind of question Cincinnati's mental state is they're now like seven games below 500 they pretty much know they're not doing anything this season it's over but avoiding the sweep here I think should motivate them a little bit against this bad Oakland team and I think Cincinnati does have the starting pitching Edge in this one with julan agar a guy that I mentioned he's made two starts in his major league career so far and he's pitched pretty decently with a 3.6 ER and one whip only a 63 strikeout walk ratio which isn't that great but he hasn't allowed many runs only two ear in runs and each start four and six inning performances they let him go 91 pitches in a second starts they are letting him pitch so I like all that and of course Oakland has never seen him before so that Al all sounds good to me Oakland has another young guy with decent stats starting who hasn't been seen by the Reds before and JT gin but he is a reliever kind of he's he hasn't made any deep starts I guess or deep up deep performances I guess he hasn't thrown many innings in his outing so he might be like just going they might be going with an opener approach in this one and just have him go a couple of innings but so I think Cincinnati does have the starting pitching Edge due to that but Cincinnati used a ton of their Bullpen both teams used a lot of their Bullpen yesterday but Cincinnati really used a lot of theirs yesterday so it's it is not something I really want to get involved in but Cincinnati it was one thing that kind of St out to me where I'm like oh that's interesting at the very least um San Diego St Louis Michael King versus Sunny gray on the surface kind of looks like it would be a pitching duel and maybe a spot to play an under but I mean Michael King has been pitching really well this season Sunny gray has really dropped off the last couple of months though so that's something I don't really want to do either he's been pitching pretty poorly as of late although his road at Stats have been worse than his home stats I believe fairly significantly I think but he's just not in great recent form uh I don't know if he's just getting older and just kind of running out of steam I don't know what the deal is there because he is a good pitcher but his numbers against San Diego specifically are also not very good so I'm gonna just kind of uh stay away from that as well I'm gonna avoid that as well and I'm going to go to a total in baseball which there are some things about this that make me think that I'm doing something wrong here and that I don't actually want to do this but man it just it seems like really it seems like something I do want to do and hang on because I'm actually uh trying to look at the splits here as well because I think we have um there are some reasons why I think we could um why this still kind of makes sense I would say why we still may want to do this uh and let me just look at because I'm gonna be playing a total I'm gonna be playing an over in Mets Arizona because I think the stting pitching matchup specifically in this matchup does call for it but I'm I want to look at uh David Peterson who's pitching this game I want to look at his stats uh quickly uh his stats that he has at Arizona specifically because I haven't found that yet what is Arizona Stadium's name now um it's still Chase Field right I think uh yeah it is so I'm look I want to find his stats specifically at Chase Field just to um determine uh whether or not his because he has bad stats against Arizona I'll just throw that out there right now which I'll mention in a minute crap he actually has decent stats at Chase Field he had one start there two years ago only allowing one run in five and two thirds so that's not great let me see the uh start before that he was horrendous though and gave up five earn runs in a third of an inning in Chase Field and 2021 so all right so he has good and bad performances there one good performance and one really horrific performance so all right let's get into it man I'm going over in Mets Arizona even though we know both of these teams have good offenses and can hit the Public's only going to be playing overs here as well but I you don't you shouldn't blindly fade the public let's just say that even though the public is probably going to be wrong slightly more often than they're going to be right but the books don't even want them to be wrong all the time because the books want want them to keep coming back right so they only want them to lose enough that uh the books make money off of them um both the games have been highs scoring in this series so far Mets 1 18-3 in the first game which was Arizona's road trip return I said they were in a bad spot there and then Arizona bounced back with a win last night eight to five returning to their form they've been winning a lot of games recently yesterday Arizona Arizona only used three relief pitchers the Mets used a lot Mets used five relief pitchers so the Bullpen situation I think is fine for playing an over here I mean these bullpens I think are okay bullpens but lot of usage yesterday especially from the Mets as srino through way too many pitches in not very in a very short amount of time in the game let's say for the amount of pitches 100 and four and two3 that's not great and we look at the starting pitching match up like I said both these pitchers have been good recently so that worries me a little bit David Peterson for the Mets as a 1.71 RA in the month of August and 3.38 in uh July but 23-13 strike out walk ratio in July doesn't tell me that he was really actually pitching that well that tells me he still didn't have very good command and 23 to 11 in August again is telling me his command isn't really that good even though he has faced a few good offenses too and done well against them too he is coming up a big performance against San Diego but he only a two to2 stga walk ratio in that one so again his stga walk ratio not very impressive his erra looks good on the season 2.85 but a 1.32 whip tells you there's something a little bit off here and he's putting too many men on base versus The Diamond Back specifically and as I already mentioned he has two starts in his career in Chase Field uh three years ago and two years ago I believe in three years ago he had that horrific performance giving up five earned runs in a third of an inning and then he had a better performance two years ago going five whatever Innings only allowing one run so that kind of balances out to still a kind of bad y I think in Chase Field I don't know what it would be but it would still be pretty high but yeah a lot of it is skewed from that one really bad performance but he also only had one decent performance there too so does that mean he's bad at Chase Field I don't know but against these Arizona hitters he's not good we have a little bit more of a sample size to look at here so it's a little bit of a better indicator of what we might get in this game they're 12 for 34 off him Lifetime with a double two home runs six RB 4- n strikeout walk ratio so again walking way too many guys it's a 353 batting average in 1,47 Ops Peterson has struggled in his career against these Arizona hitters man so even though we have good recent performances sort of from Peterson his walk rate has still not been good so I don't even know if we could say that he's been that good recently like his ra I think is a bit of a mirage even though he does continue to keep up that good RA I think it's still a bit misleading and then on the other side Ryan Nelson I mean I've been bashing him all season because I just don't think he's a good pitcher but he has actually been legitimately good in the last couple months lowering his erra significantly in July he had a 33 to8 strikeout walk ratio on 2.41 ra did face a couple good offenses in there too so he has turned it around and then after a bad start in his first start in August sort of bad giving up four runs in five innings thinking oh man the bad Ryan Nelson might be back he's turned it around again has a 29-4 strikeout walk ratio this month 3.28 ER pitching three of those games on the road and having a good performance in his last one at Fenway against my Red Sox unfortunately the Red Sox cannot do anything against Nelson I still don't think Nelson is a good pitcher though man even though his strikeout walk ratio is definitely good over these recent months look his career stats are not that good even though yeah this is only his second full season so maybe he's finally finding something but career-wise 4.62 ER 1.32 whip this season his numbers are pretty similar now lowering his numbers to basically that 4.29 ra and 1.28 whip this season I just don't think he's necessarily that great is 108 to 30 strike a walk ratio isn't that bad 136 hits in 130 Innings pitch isn't very good though so he is pretty hitable still overall against the New York Mets his stats are not good dude they're 15 for 34 off him Lifetime with two doubles three or four triples five home runs 14 RBI is absolutely insane 4 to1 strikeout walk ratio 441 batting averaging 1,63 34 Ops in a decent Siz sample like that he has been rocked by these Mets hitters man it's just crazy and that 14 RBI number that's just insane so you have two starting pitchers who have over 1,000 Ops against these opposing hitters in over 30 at bats so I think there is something to take away from that these starting pitchers have not been good against these hitters man and looking at Ryan Nelson splits he is worse at home than he is on the road uh this season 4.95 ra at home compared to 3.79 on the road and he is at home tonight obviously um 284 opponent batting average at home and it's only 256 on the road so his numbers are worse in that situation man and then I believe this is a night game right oh no this is an afternoon game never mind crap because I was gonna say his numbers are also worse at uh at night in certain ways his opponent batting average is worse at night than it is during the day but his erra is worse during the day so I don't know what what you could really take away from that is he better during the day or during the night I don't know but his stats aren't really good either way so that's the breakdown there and then David Peterson I forgot to mention his stats overall in the season uh 66 to 37 strikeout walk ratio is very unimpressive 76 hits allowed an 85 and a third Innings pitch is pretty good but man he's not a great strike up pitcher and he is walking a lot of batter so I don't trust him I actually trust Ryan Nelson more than more than I trust uh David Peterson because Nelson has actually been legitimately pretty good recently and Peterson has not even though zra makes it look like he has been so that's going to be an over this number has dropped a little bit from nine juice to the under to nine Juiced more heavily to the under but I do see 59% of the tickets on the over so not really that public on the over but 68% of the cash on the over so I am going on the over here and that's my only play today man just because both these pitchers have really really ugly stats against these opposing lineups we got to turn this season around man this year around like I said I was doing pretty well for a little while and man I'm still hanging around at like 3K below a break even this year it's not good I was ahead of the curve and now just treading water again here it's got to turn around this is going to be you can play over nine at plus money here over 100 of course the nine is a key number in baseball so it could potentially push could pay money to go over eight and a half at minus 120 I don't think I like that as much so risking it potentially being a push there that is uh the one play and we do have college football today like I said most of the games are between FBS versus FCS teams so a lot of these aren't even on the board right now as far as I can see on pregame so I don't tend to play these games anyway but I will say that when you have FBS teams versus FCS teams in these first games the FBS teams are typically going to be a big favorite but typically they don't show up and like show everything that they have to offer even though it is going to be their their opener they tend to not be 100% focused on an FCS team coming in whereas the FCS team is going to be more motivated like more pumped up to play that game against that FBS team so those F FBS teams uh I wouldn't want to be laying huge prices with them really and it's a situation where if that FB BS teams going to we know they're going to start playing FBS teams down the road and they might have a big game immediately up next in week two and whatever so those FBS teams are probably not gonna show everything that they have to offer in this week one game against an FCS team either they're probably going to keep their offense pretty vanilla so that doesn't lend itself to covering like a really Hefty spread either so that's the way I look at some of those games but North Dakota State and Colorado is of course the one that's drawing the most interest as far as FCS versus FBS because North Dakota State's one of the best FCS teams they've won almost half of the Championships in the last like two decades in FCS they've won like double digit championships I think they've won like 11 championships in the last 20s something years or I don't know I'd have to look it up it's it's something crazy though they've won like half of the FCS championships but I think Colorado is being a little bit undervalued here man I both of these teams are returning a lot of their players from last year so it's a good FCS team in North Dakota State pretty balanced team really versus Colorado who has a really good offense really and they did suffer some injuries late in the season their offensive line just wasn't holding up at all and quarterback shadur Sanders is getting nailed a lot because of that bad offensive line performance and that's gonna I think keep people off of Colorado there was that early season hype for a little while after they pulled off that ridiculous upset of TCU and then it dwindled pretty quickly once they started losing and then they really just tanked and did really bad in conference play and now I think people are kind of off that Colorado train I see 60% of the tickets on North Dakota State in this one but 91% of the cash on Colorado laying the points Colorado's up from nine with a little bit of juice up to nine and a half with a little bit of juice if you want to play Colorado that's the way I lean in this one but you're you would have to on the side at least that you would have to um lay a price here though and it might be hitting 10 so of course you're going to have to risk a push there because 10 is a key number so I do lean that way Colorado is returning nine players on offense and defense I think so they were returning a lot of players but their offensive line and their defense were all terrible last year so really just their offensive um like players like their uh their game uh their uh gamechanging players are all good last year like they quarterback uh running backs wide receivers they were all really good last year but their offensive line was terrible their defense was terrible so the fact they're returning all those guys they do have more experience though so maybe they should improve a little bit maybe I don't know if we really still expect that much out of this Colorado team but in this spot I think you may want to play them but I think the better way to look is to play the over in this one because Colorado's defense is pretty bad and it it may continue to be bad just because it's the same Personnel North Dakota State should be able to score against this weak Colorado defense and Colorado's offense of course course is going to get their points they're going to be able to score they do have a very talented offense so uh 79% of the tickets on the over here public is on the over but 84% of the cash and it's driven it up from 58 and a half to 60 and a half both juice to the over so you've missed the best numbers on that over there but that is kind of still the way that I lean in that one I'm not playing it obviously but that's the breakdown there we do have a lower tier FPS game we have two FPS games today one of them is Coastal Carolina against Jacksonville State teams that haven't been in FBS that long it is kind of interesting jayville state is down from minus four to minus three 53% of the tickets on Coastal Carolina but 74% of the cash on Coastal Carolina I actually agree with the market in this one I lean to the Coastal Carolina side in this one both of these teams made bowls last year but Jacksonville State made their first Bowl in program history and that was a game that I won money on and they really tried to blow the game they were winning most of the game and they made some bad turnovers and whatever and that led to some scoring against them and I think it w up going into overtime when it looked like they had the game in hand repeatedly and then they still W up winning in overtime I cashed the play they won by three on the minus two and a half but that that was such a big bowl game for Jacksonville State that they may be in a worse spot than Coastal Carolina because Coastal Carolina they did pull off an upset in their bowl against San Jose State but it was kind of like a doesn't really mean that much with the Coastal Carolina team that was going to bowls like repeatedly in in the recent season so I don't know if that bowl win really mattered that much because I think they do have some other recent Bowl wins they certainly have other Bowl appearances even though it wasn't upset Jacksonville States was much bigger so maybe Jacksonville State will have a little bit of a hangover after such a huge win for the program the first Bowl win ever and they also were losing some key players they lost their quarterback Zion Webb who was a good dual threat quarterback I believe he graduated and he is just not playing football anymore so they lost him I don't know who their starting quarterback is actually G to be I think it's going to be Tyler Huff because they have two other quarterbacks that don't have any experience yet Huff has years of experience and is a senior but he's been playing at firmman so this is I believe so this is going to be a step up for huff but I believe he's going to be the quarterback and they're going to have to get used to that new quarterback and he's not as good as web so I think they should maybe take a little bit of a step back in that regard and he's probably not as good of a runner as Webb was just be based on the fact that he's white no offense but that could factor into it as well uh so I think that's Jacksonville State's you know got that uh guy who's GNA have to adapt to their system there are going to be some Growing Pains there when you change quarterbacks like that and they lost their running back from last year too I believe uh he entered the uh draft and didn't get drafted I forget what his name was Malik something I'm sorry I can't remember his name off the top of my head I would have to look and I gotta get this video done quickly but so they lost their quarterback and their best running back from last year I think some of their wide receivers are coming back and whatever but their offense may suffer some uh some Growing Pains there like I said so that's going to be a little bit tough for Jacksonville State on the Coastal Carolina side uh they're returning like basically all of their running backs as far as I could tell so that's good for them they did lose their best quarterback last year but it's an interesting situation for them mall I believe was the quarterback they had starting the season last year and I believe he is transferred out over to NC State and I don't know if he's goingon to be their start or what but for Coastal Carolina uh let me look I'm looking at the wrong week here man I gotta get back to this for Coastal Carolina oh this is ESPN is so messed up man it looks like they're like still considering this to be oh no I'm looking at week one I was looking at the right week this is week one uh there's too many games to um they're lumping in week zero with week one it looks like on the page that's why I'm confused Al they tend to show the previous weeks games and whatever so for Coastal uh yeah so they're going to be going with a quarterback who does have experience in this system who uh played some of their games last year so macall is gone he was their best quarterback last year but Vasco I believe is going to be their quarterback this year and he's the guy who played in their bowl even though he didn't do that well in the bowl I believe he is going to be their quarterback and he played he started multiple games for them last year including the bowl so I think they're going to go with him he's only a sophomore but I'm assuming he's going to be their starter I'm not 100% sure but he's the the guy on their team who played last year has experien and is going to still be on the roster this year because I think guest who made a couple of starts last year as well as on Bryant now it looks like so taking a step down there uh and McCall is gone like I said I believe so Vasco I believe is going to be their quarterback here uh their running backs they had a mix of running backs last year I think most of them are going to be back Vasco is actually kind of a dual threat and he is white so my apologies I guess and they are losing their best wide receiver Pinkney who had a good bowl game last year he got drafted I believe to the Carolina Panthers so oh I was going to say Jacksonville State I I I don't know if I uh finished my thought there Jacksonville State best running back from last year entered the NFL draft but went undrafted I believe so that's kind of sad I guess but Coastal Carolina's best wide receiver pink KN from last year I believe got drafted by the Carolina Panthers so they are losing him but because they do have a quarterback who is experienced in the system at least and played that bowl game I think they're going to be more ready to go than Jacksonville State is so I lean to Coastal Carolina there because they have the quarterback that has been on the team and they're bringing him back Jacksonville State's going to have to get used to having a new quarterback in there who is taking a step up in class so I think Coastal Carolina is the way to look there and then of course the the biggest game on the Slate is Minnesota and North Carolina this is at Minnesota actually I believe because there are some neutral sight games too but this is UNCC at Minnesota um this is flipped on UNCC was an underdog plus one and a half at some point these lines have been out for a long time so we've seen a lot of movement here unfortunately so if you like UNCC you're getting kind of the worst of it now but it is still in that price range where you're still basically just playing them to win the game so I still don't mind it if you like North Caroline I still don't hate laying the two and a half with them even though the plus one and a half is better but it's still in that range basically just pick the winner or you could play a money line on it potentially UNC has flipped from the plus one and a half to minus two and a half like I just said 58% of the tickets are on them but 55% of the cash on the other side of Minnesota so the cash discrepancy is actually slightly on mines soda so it's you know opposition to where the line has moved which is a little bit interesting I kind of leaned on the North Carolina side a little bit just because they have a more experienced quarterback even though of course we all know they lost Drake may he is on the New England Patriots he got drafted High first round draft pick um North Carolina I believe is going with senior quarterback uh Max Johnson not just a senior he's been around for forever I think he's playing in like his fifth or sixth year he's played on LSU and Texas A&M so he has experience he's coming in he's going to be the starter for North Carolina so I do kind of still lean to the North Carolina side just because they have the way more experienced quarterback at least experienced at this level whereas Minnesota I believe is bringing in a quarterback from the University of New Hampshire un so he is really going to be stepping up in class I think Max Johnson's going to be the guy who's more ready to go even though he does have to adjust to this new system he is the way more experienced quarterback at this level I mean he was playing in the SEC so he's been facing some some of the best defenses in college football so he's GNA be more ready to go than whoever this UNH guy is I'm sorry to say but that just those are the facts so I do expect uh the quarterback advantage to be on the side of North Carolina and North Carolina their defense has been slowly improving after it was just a joke it was a disaster under I can't remember who their defensive coordinator was I believe they got rid of him because he was his defense was just so bad like the last couple years a couple years ago their defense I was making fun of them and they were just the butt of a whole bunch of jokes just a horrendous defense but they have been improving so I actually like the under in this game more than I like uh the side but it looks like the cash discrepancy is against that too which is kind of interesting to me but I think North Carolina they're still kind of thought of as that team that has that good offense and they have a worse defense but now you have a team both these teams have new quarterbacks coming in so there are going to be growing pains even though I did just say Max Johnson should be the more prepared quarterback here he's definitely the more experienced quarterback but still both quarterbacks have to adjust the new systems here it's the first games you could see some Growing Pains there offensively so you could see the offenses maybe start a little bit slowly to the season here which is why I kind of like the under in this one more than anything else and the public I expected to be on the over here because that's North Carolina's thing they score a lot their defense is perceived as not being very good even though they have improved which is part of the reason I like the under too but 56% of the tickets coming in on the under 77% of the cash however is on the over and it looks like it's just sitting at 50 and a half I think it was lower than 50 and a half at some points but I don't see that being the case on pregame here saying the opener was at 50 and a half as well so I don't know but my lean in this one would be to the under in this one slightly again just because of those Growing Pains that there might be for these offenses with new quarterbacks I believe North Carolina brought in a new defensive coordinator by the way I think so their defense should continue to improve I've been in Minnesota's offense I don't expect to be able to do much under this UNH guy at least to start the season I think their offense is gonna have have some problems and then um I'm not sure uh did Minnesota play a bowl game last year because the other thing is I'm sure North Carolina did because they had Drake may but there's so many bowls it's just um you tend to forget what even happens both teams I think actually might have been in bowls yeah they were Minnesota won the Quick Lane Bowl last year against Bowling Green so I think both of these teams were in bowls last year so there's another angle that you can look at in these week one these first games uh you tend to also want to play on teams that were in bowls and and are bringing those guys back though so of course Drake May is G but if you have a team that was in a bowl and they're bringing a lot of those starters back who played in that bowl and they're up against a team who didn't play in a bowl in week one that team that played in that bowl tends to be more prepared because they had to uh prepare for a game in like December and whatever whereas the other team their season was over earlier on so they have been off and they could be coming in colder because they've been off for a lot longer was that team that had to play in the bowl had to practice had to prepare for that bowl and are you know have played a game more recently so that tends to be an advantage for those teams as well but of course both these teams like I said were in bows last year and that's right uh uh North Carolina lost in the Dukes Mayo Bowl I remember talking about that because I liked West Virginia in that one I think Drake Maiden playing it I think he just got ready for the draft and it was in North that game was played in North Carolina but North Carolina was without Drake May and probably some of their other guys so they didn't really have a good game in that one but that's going to do it for me man if I had to pick a strongest lean on this college football slate I think it would actually be to Coastal Carolina because you're talking about again that quarterback I if he's starting which I think he probably is he he at least has some experience in that system and played in that bowl game for them so I think they'll be more ready to go than that Jacksonville State offense under their new quarterback who's really taking a step up in class there and making a step up in class so those are my thoughts the only play again for me today in Major League Baseball when people start focusing on football man and they tend to focus away from baseball but there's still money-making opportunities in baseball of course it's still that Daily Grind of a sport and even though those uh starting pitchers have good recent eras I'm still going over in Mets Arizona that's an over nine right now at plus 100 hopefully it gets there man because again I have to get back to this break even point it's going to take a lot it's going to take football to do it and we're going to have to go with a good percentage because football I make fewer plays obviously because it's a weakly sport and not a daily sport it's gonna have to do it man we might be looking at a loss year hopefully not peace