The Breakdown of Every MLB Game Today | Tuesday, September 3rd

Intro welcome back to the breakdown it is Tuesday September 3rd in the MLB a Full Slate of action and we're going to do just that we're breaking down every single game I'm giving you my leans my picks my predictions we're obviously look at the starting pitching looking at the right how they're doing against righties lefties bullpens runners in scoring position all that stuff if you've been enjoying the breakdown do me a favor hit that like button subscribe if you're new and if you want to just jump around to different games because those are the ones you're interested in those are all time stamp down below my name's Austin we're going to dive into these games real quick as always if you want all our Best Bets they're going to be live on the D Club first which is just an easy you know way to you can get the app on your phone to get it sent to your phone directly or you can join our Discord and get them sent directly there too for you and down below there's a twoe free trial if you want to go down below test it out and see all our picks and then obviously we'll post Our Best Bets video later on in the day but let's have in the games we're gonna start with White Sox vs Orioles the first one white sock Orioles yesterday was an absolute blow Chris Flex then they parlayed him with Chad cool Tuki toan I mean the white socks are terrible we know that uh Orioles today we got Kade Povich on the mound for them Nick Nini starting for the white socks I don't know how you don't want to back another over here I mean look if the O are going to continue to put up 13 runs Count Me In and ni Nick the is just not good I mean he came off back from injury in his last start six and he's pitched only one ear run allowed two the Rangers but that's the Rangers we're talking about that Rangers team you never know what you're getting from them and against the White Soxs I just don't think they were trying and heck they didn't really try yesterday either but still I think Nick Nini is not very good I think that the Orioles could could hit him around if you look at Nick Vini against lefties 233 batting average a 459 on base percentage so he has walked 18 lefties I mean man the guy is struggling he has not pitched a ton this year I do think the O's once again RI up put up a ton of runs on the scoreboard do I think they cover the two and a half I don't know if I want to trust that with Kade Povich on the mound but I do like an over in this one once again I think there's lots of runs once the O's get hot just keep backing them I think they're going to be putting up a ton of runs today but I also think the white socks could put up a couple runs Kate Povich not a guy that I'm too fond Nationals vs Marlins of next game Nationals going on the road to take on the Miami Marlins this is a game I'm actually looking at an over for our Best Bets um Patrick Corbin is coming off two pretty good starts I mean people have tried to fade him the last two starts he's pitched well obviously one of them was his last one was against the Yankees sixth in he's pitched scoreless against the Yankees the previous one was against the Rockies now he goes on the road though obviously Patrick Corbin will see he hasn't pitched on the road in two straight starts it hasn't been great on the road six .52 erra you see on paper Miami Marlin is pretty solid against lefties then on the flip side you get Max Meer I think is actually one of the worst pitchers in the league bro throws it right over the middle of the plate he's like please hit it dude he just doesn't strike out a lot of guys he is begging for hard contct and overs in Miami have been a wagon this season one of the most profitable bets out there I'll probably be on the over in this game parlay that with two bad bullpens yeah I'll probably on the over at eight and a half I could see either of these teams scoring six or seven runs themselves but I also could see see each team scoring four plus and it's like a 54 final I really like the over in this game next one we have the Twins vs Rays twins toast or play in the Rays yesterday was a higher scoring game in this one I mean there were runs early it ended up being 5-4 Twins winning um this one you got David fesa versus Jeffrey Springs I don't really know what you're getting here twins have been pretty good against lefties all year long uh recently last two weeks pretty solid as well on the flip side Tampa actually hasn't been great against righties pretty much over the last like two or three months um they've actually been decent against lefties last two weeks obviously not a lefty here in Festa um Festa not a guy that goes too deep into games I understand why this is a pick them these are probably two this a game I'm probably not touching um I don't like touching raay games every time I I go in there and I try to think oh they're not going to do anything they spawn in with five runs in the first two innings I I don't know maybe you guys have teams that you're like dude this I can't get a beat on this team to save my life that's kind of the Twins and Rays you never know what I'm you're getting from him so I'm personally avoiding this Phillies vs Blue Jays game next game we have Phillies taking on the Blue Jays they pick them here which is a little bit surprising given you know the Phillies have a much better record than the Jays but here we have Tyler Phillips going against Chris Basset now Chris Basset is what he is I mean he's gonna go out there give up two or three earn runs the Phillies haven't been great versus rightand pitching andin coming off a big Series against the Braves could this be a let down spot I they're putting Phillips out there who had a great start to the season but has been pretty bad they're calling him back up from the Triple A um I could see that blue jay's tattooing him for some runs um I Doan the Blue Jays on the money line here I think the fact they're only minus 110 is a little bit telling but I think if I were to back the Jays maybe I'm just looking at a first five team total or something like that or trying to fade Phillips in some way I don't really want to trust their Bullpen a ton the Phillies Bullpen been pretty good um I don't know if I have a great lean in this one I do think the Jays can put up some runs I honestly think the Phillies could put up some runs too eight and a half I feel like it gets close to that could be a 43 final score nor could be a little bit more I I like runs I just don't know if they get to the full eight and a half at least that's kind of how Red Sox vs Mets I'm looking at this one the next game is going to be the Red Sox on the road again against the Mets yesterday relatively lowc scoring game here four to one final score of Mets W so you got cutter Crawford going against David Peterson I have stopped trying to predict regression for David Peterson you look at his uh baseball Savant numbers and you know what I'll pull them up here baseball Savant is like one of my favorite tabs I just go to my favorites boom David Peterson he's got a 5.12 expected ra but you see it on the screen 2.83 is man to get out of every single trouble that he's gotten into and I don't know if he's getting in a lot of trouble today because the Red Sox have been bottom of the barrel for lefties recently you could look at his KS if you want to I mean the Red Sox have the fifth highest strikeout percentage two lefties over the last two weeks I mean the the Mets haven't been much better so maybe cutle Crawford can do his thing a little bit here but cutle Crawford just hasn't been great recently David Peterson continues to find ways out of jams I'm personally avoiding this game but if you want to bet on the Mets again I don't I don't really honestly hate it I just know the moment I back David Peterson that will be when that regression comes no I'm not doing it maybe the regression comes next year I'm avoiding this game these are two teams that no next game Rockies and Braves we Rockies vs Braves see the biggest favorite here as the Braves are minus 400 on the money line is they have Chris Sale going against Kyle Freeland um I haven't checked the odds I meant to check a pre video of Chris Sale to record a win that's kind of what I would be looking at here I'll check them on the fly with y'all because obviously their Braves are pretty big favorites record a win might be too Juiced minus 145 that's a tad juice for me um Freeland has been a little bit better uh on the road than he has has been at home obviously pitches in in Coors Field so not a real big shock there I mean on the road though 3.7 for eray only four homers allowed on the road if he can keep the ball in the ball park obviously I don't trust the Braves to hit consistently around I'm maybe looking at an under in this game maybe an under eight and a half I just hate that Braves bull not the Braves I hate the Rockies Bullpen it is just terrible I do like an under though in this game obviously the Braves have been good versus lefties recently but I can't imagine they faced a lot of great left-handed arms uh we'll just go off the fly we'll see first lefties versus Braves we're looking at I know they faced Christopher Sanchez twice Ranger Suarez pitched a nine inning shut out I mean or not not nine inning shutout he actually gave up four ear runs in five innings I still don't know if I trust them against lefties they had a great game against Robbie Ray who couldn't find the strike zone and I think that's probably factoring in here no I don't really know if I trust them I feel like they're hitting the Lefty Bullpen arms more so than the Lefty starters probably do like an under maybe first five in this one I think Kyle fre can pitch decently keep the ball in the ballpark Force the Braves to get hits after hits after hits I don't trust their whole lineup one through nine so unless the top of the order is just absolutely crushing the baseball it's like kind of like an under in that game uh next game pirates in the Cubs uh this was supposed Pirates vs Cubs to be Justin steel starting for the Cubs but now it will be Kyle Hendrick hence why the Pirates are now with SK on the mound take SK on the mound with the grain of salt because we obviously know he's kind of on a pitch count kind of on a an Innings limit they're not really limiting his pitches right now but look at him to record a win he doesn't have a prop Market there strikeouts I imagine is going to be six and a half I kind of lean the under on the six and a half um I mean I just don't imagine he's going too far into this scheme earned runs he's sitting at probably a one and a half Juiced on the over if I had to guess uh one and a half actually plus money on the over makes me think he's just not p far into this game um obviously the Cubs have been red hot against righty's lost yesterday so they'll obviously step up here I think against skzo they've seen I think this is their fourth time seeing him so a lot of play appearances there I'm probably not touching this game um Wrigley Field with a six and a half total feels a little off I do the pirate or Cubs on the money line I do think they can win this game but I'm probably not touching it Guardians and Royals is our next game Guardians vs Royals um Tanner BBY versus Brady singer I just don't know how anyone backs the Royals confidently right now they're plus 100 today they just haven't been good down Finny pastino the lineup just looks jumbled up I kind of see that happen with the Yankees sometimes say Yankees because that's the team I follow the most um when someone like Stanton goes down the team just can't figure it out for a few weeks that's kind of the case here it feels like with a vinie p they're just struggling you see that batters average with runners in scoring position position really bad the bullpens really struggling duing the the Guardians on the money line here I'm not sure I'll take it maybe Logan well he really liked the Guardians on the ml Logan obviously does the MLB best bests videos with us with me so I doing the the Guardians once again they've really good splits against Brady singer who struggles against lefties has been good at home struggles does struggle against lefties I do like the Guardians on the ml once again next game Cardinals taking Cardinals vs Brewers on the Brewers so you have Stephen mats making his return from the 60-day iil going against a very tough matchup versus the Brewers and then you got Aaron svali on the other side I like an over here um Steven R is bad and the Brewers have been really good against lefties their only calling card is the strikeouts is kind tough for him but Stephen mats I'm not worried about him striking out a bunch of guys returning back from injury could be in a little bit of a tough spot plus their ER their Bullpen ra not great on the flip side Milwaukee they're pitching Aaron savali coming off a gem I would know that because I faded him in his last start who do you go again uh is that against the Reds that he went up against um against the Giants no I took the Giants team total over three and a half and he cooked them seven Innings shut out feel like now is a tougher spot St Louis has he pitched against them this year no he has not I think they could Rock him they they've been really good against righties I think they could easily put up some runs on seali and you can see Matts give up his fair share I mean the Brewers have been really good against Lefty so I kind of like an over in that game next game was where we took the Yankees vs Rangers over yesterday Yankees versus Rangers I'm not sure I love the over today hey versus Carlos rodon I don't like rhon I I mean he's good he'll get the strikeouts I'm sure a little bit here but I also don't like Heeney either I just don't normally trust the Yankees versus lefties obviously they could tattoo Heeney he is not great Lefty by any stretch of the imagination but I do think that this is not a game I have a great read on the the Rangers obviously got smoked Yer right now they're only down the plus 115 on the money line which to me makes me think hey they don't think too highly of rhon um Haney I feel like they think is an average starter and that's kind of what he is a four er and a 1.23 whip pretty average numbers kind of similar to rodon rodon does struggle with the Home Run ball which obviously could be a problem against a team like the Rangers who do have a bunch of Heavy Hitters um rodon though if you look at his litz on the road 5.27 ER has not been good there 15 homers on the road I mean you could maybe go with another over here maybe a Rangers team total over uh that's a tough game I I I feel like the Rangers are putting up runs today might look at their team total over and finally we Dodgers vs Angels have a couple games left on this late three to be exact uh Dodgers versus The Angels Walker buer versus The Return of Reed Detmer who struggled in triple A has pitched well his last few outings from what I'm being told Dodgers have been really good against Lefty angels have sucked for rties but they get Walker ber who is terrible man I don't know if I want to get involved in this geme I can't really fade the Dodgers here Walker beer's unback for me I'm avoiding this game is there anywhere else I can do it I like mookie bets for Two Plus bags I just think Demmer throws it over the middle of the plate and begs you to hit it I still do think deur is undefeated for nerfy record but good luck back and Walker beer on the other side as well I do think there's runs in this game obviously a nine and a half total always feels like Angel games always have weird uh totals um showy Otani though is this his first game back in uh in Anaheim in the Angel Stadium maybe I know he's faced the angels I they were at home for that we'll see if he's I don't know if he's there I feel like they've already played the Angels uh on the road so I'm avoiding let me just say that I'm avoiding it there's other games I like more than that one Mariners playing the Mariners vs Athletics Athletics yesterday pretty high scoring game a lot of runs early in that one I don't know if there was a bunch late it was ended up being a 5 to four final score all those coming in the first five or six Innings tell you Luis Castillo versus JT gin I don't know a ton about gin obviously hasn't pitched a lot this year 0.92 whip is not terrible that's pretty solid Castillo is what he is he's going to give up some hard contact and the the a our team that's swinging a lot for hard contact so I could see him giving up a home run or two today maybe a little Lawrence Butler action if you're trying to go with that he's been scorching hot flip side Mariners they could hit JT again I mean these these are just I hate the Mariners I hate them I want their season to end get him out of my face I hate Luis Castillo this and this is everything bad about baseball I hate it right here Luis Castillo literally you back him bro doesn't know how to pitch he just throws it right over the middle of the plate bang double home run no Dbacks versus Diamondbacks vs Giants Giants here's another game I like the Dbacks on the money line the only problem with pulling the trigger right now is I don't know who starts for the Giants it could be Kyle Harrison if it is Kyle Harrison count me in on Dbacks ml they have just crushed every Lefty they crushed righties to whatever the Giants want to try out there they've crushed um Brian Nelson's been really good though recently I mean the 4.1 or 23 ER is a little little high but Heck if you look at his stats over in August he was really good in August he had a 3.19 erra had a rough start in August four runs to the Pirates but then 2-1 two2 did C up eight hits in his last start but got out of a lot of jams there and you see on the screen the Giants have been terrible against righ East striking out a ton they're bottom two or three in every metric I like the Dbacks once again on the ml here I don't hate that at all I mean I would probably back them honestly and then finally hot and Hot vs Cold Hitters cold hitters versus good and bad matchups some hot and cold hitters I already talked about Lawrence Butler Mickey miac give him some praise Freddy Freeman he's been hot recently two homers yesterday yordon Alvarez Corbin Carroll and Paul Goldman I think we talked about him yesterday turning around for the season we'd love to see Goldie obviously we know he's much better than the numbers he has on the year see if he can end September and have a great month to end the Year guys that need to figure it out out George Springer what are we doing JP Crawford uh kybert Ruiz he probably figures it out today and Andrew vaugh 0 for 22 brother just give me your contract I can go out there and do that on the flip side jerkson Prof far one for 20 I don't love seeing that but I still love him and then rafhael Deus one for 17 profar I think got the day off yesterday so don't be surprised if he figures it out today don't know what the Padres are going to do with their lineup though because now Fernando is back so maybe you go to arise Fernando nworth Manny profar Merill but then asander B dude they got a plethora of guys in that lineup the Padres are legit with the full Squad in there they're going to be a TP team to uh to beat I mean they are really good I think U Darvish returns tomorrow so we'll talk about him then finally some good and bad matchup I Good vs Bad Matchups talked about the the Guardians versus singer you got Jose Ramirez 12 for 25 in there Steven Quan two steps below he's N9 for 20 if you go down to the bad match ups so Josh Naylor not very good though so a little bit weird there C pretty good splits Rafael Des does he figur it out today Conor Joe I don't know if you want to back Connor Joe but good splits against Hendrick on the flip side guys that have bad matchups ree Hoskins three homers but four for 23 so I guess maybe back for Homer maybe swinging for the fenes against Matts see if he's in the lineup juano not great splits against Heeney Alec B same thing versus Basset Marcel Ozuna not great versus Freeland and then Stanton one for six with five walks he maybe pitching around him Stanton I know I just strike out with bases loaded yesterday I do remember that as I was on the over and that was real nice to see end up cashing so it didn't matter but those are some good and bad match ups maybe throw those guys in your parlays or maybe fade those guys that are on the bad matchups do what you want my name's Austin I hope you enjoyed the breakdown a little shorter than normal but hey we're cranking through these videos we have some NFL video dropping on the Channel with all my future bets if you've missed the YouTube shorts that I've been posting over the last two or three weeks I'll have a full video that includes every single thing so I'll throw those in there uh Futures video should be live around 12:00 p.m. noon and then our Best Bets video when it is live I'll link it on the screen but do me a favor join the dub Club twoe free trial test it out you get all the NFL plays early which we have a bunch to out this week have a great day and a great season in the NFL hopefully a great September for the MLB and wrap up but been a great season for us but there's still time to turn it around let's do that today see you guys in the next one peace