NASCAR Darlington Southern 500 Best Bets, Preview & Playoff Picks - Through The Gears Tino Pattigno

welcome in race fans this edition of through the gears presented by front stretch I'm your host Tino patino and I can't wait to get back into the racing action and betting action for this weekend and it's a special one at that a crown jewel event the southern 500 and I'm super excited to be talking about some of the that'ss that we have for this week recapping a little bit what happened at the crazy finish in Daytona but before we get into all that got to give a special shout out to the people who commented on our last video really appreciate everyone continuing to comment if you want to shout out in the next video all you got to do is leave a comment down below and if you have any NASCAR questions as well I'll be sure to answer those every time you comment Kai fried shout out to him East Marcus Mike Gary Kyle B8 always appreciate you guys drop it down in a comment and letting us know who you think is going to win the race it's time to go through the gears well Harrison Burton gets it done at Daytona and a 100 to one victory for him there that was unfortunate to us because the guy who finished in second was our main pick Kyle Bush at 16 to1 that was great value for him at the time especially with the race he had run it was just unfortunate to see another Super Speedway race and like that for us as we finish second for our picks in the last three super speedway races this season hey to me that's all you can really ask for is having a guy be there at the end to have a chance to win some of these unpredictable races and I'm happy for Harrison Burton and the Wood Brothers it's crazy to see him in the playoffs now but he capitalized on his moment and he was able to get it done so congrats to all of them for us it's it stinks a little bit because that was our ticket we had being able to cash for the other guys they were involved in Rec City it was just wreck after wreck late there in the going some great racing I will say some great racing I really enjoyed watching that race but that was just a facts of the matter we just got involved in too many wrecks with only one guy to bail us out in Kyle bus and ultimately we weren't able to get it done now I think the other thing too I want to just note quickly with this Dayton to recap because it doesn't have to be that long is just the fact that when you're trying to predict Trends and and gather data from these super speedway races it seemed like everything was working in our favor it seemed like we were able to point in a certain direction to who was going to be fast and what cars were going to make it out at the end and unfortunately this was one of the ones that was unpredictable and I think that's one of the things that in moving forward we have two super speedway races left so we can sort of take that and and use it to our advantage now knowing okay the big wrecks are going to happen but when are they going to happen who can sort of put us in position like I said it is still unpredictable but I'm going to still always try to do my best to for a n narrative see who I can find make a play that can make us some money there now for the Darlington prep this is where things get interesting because it's such a unique track the main thing I look for in Darlington is especially with the southern 500 recognizing the difference between how there was a 400 mile race there earlier this year for throwback weekend and now there's going to be a 500 mile race there now these are going to be drastically different I mean you're adding 100 miles but not only that you're adding tons of other strategies that can be played on top of all that this is a playoff cutline race this is the final race of the regular season I think that is something that is huge to note going into this one there are drivers around the playoff bubble that are going to try to do whatever it takes to get in maybe final Pit Stop happens they take no tires they take two tires instead of four whatever the case may be strategy is something that's going to come into play Big Time here because not only do you have playoff cutline drivers you have guys fighting for the regular season Championship Tyler IC Kyle Larson Chase Elliott I believe are in those mix there um in terms of being able to capitalize on there and get that regular season Championship done in this race so to me that's something that we need to sort of be aware of the standings it's going to come into play they're it's going to be talked about there's going to be drivers that could potentially insert themselves into the NASCAR playoffs by winning this race who's going to take the chance who's gonna take the risk who will it pay off for in this one another thing I look at is just past Darlington races and specifically the one from last year here because it's going to be in the same racing conditions and it's also like I said another 500 mile race now what's important to note about that Kyle Larson that was a Kyle lson Denny Hamlin show Chris busher did finish in third as well so I think that's important to note is even when these guys are running you know stage one stage two up front it's really about the long run it's really about the tire fall off and managing your car the best to be there at the end and capitalize on like I said the strategy or a good pit stop that may happen for instance Christopher Bell in this race last year started on the poll led a bunch of laps and then had issues in Pit Road which set him back I think he's going to be a player to look out for in this one but when you think about the guys in Pit Road that's also going to be a key factor we cannot have any issues there because track position is also very key here it's not that it's hard to pass in terms of the next gen car at this track specifically from what I've seen but it's just hard to pass at this track in general it's hard to race at this track this is the Veterans RAC track this is a track that is too tough to tame so we're going to tame it just like that this weekend we're going to win it we are going to do our best we can to find the picks who will be able to earn their Darlington stripe and get to Victory Lane in this one another thing that's important to knowe as we get into the On's breakdown about Darlington itself is there's no real tracks that are comparable to it it's very unique track as we've seen with some other tracks so far this season but one thing that I keep in mind for me is the fact that you have to Run The High Line you have to be able to pass cars on the high side if you're not able to do that sure there'll be two grooves but if you're not able to do that and execute that you don't feel confident in a driver to rip the Highline and rip the wall in this race they're probably not going to be able to consistently move forward in the field what other race is like that well to me I kind of think of Kansas I think of the drivers that were fast there two completely different tracks but you have to run The High Line there in order to get the most speed to have some of the best corners now it's not all the where you have to do that but we saw it utilized by Kyle Larson and Chris busher and Denny Hamlin bar Trix Jr at Kansas in that race and it really benefited them as well hey same thing with Michigan like I said totally different track horsepower is completely different there and it and drivers can run it more wide open and it's not as technical as this track will be either but I look at those drivers that if they're able to run the Highline there they may have a chance to do the same thing here and I feel like if you're weren't even seeing that from the drivers that may have not been comfortable with running that line or not as good as others and getting close to the wall like Kyle Larson getting the most speed off Corner exit Christopher Bell Tyler reick like we said they're just not going to be able to perform at this track at a high level like the other drivers are that's what it takes to be great here getting the most speed out of the car in every single corner and that's why we see passes on the Highline that's why we see drivers ripping the fence in this one and so who's the who's the king of that that's Kyle Larson right now he's plus 650 and some of these best odds that I'm seeing right now on the Action Network are all from FanDuel so FanDuel is going to be where we find our money and find our value in this one FanDuel is providing it with us in here because Kyle lson openen at plus 550 he's plus 475 on bmgm on fandal plus 650 so keep that in mind that's where we can find the value in this one for the odds breakdown now Denny hamin's next up Tyler renick again and then that's really our big three in this one those are the favorites Kyle plus 650 Den hen plus 700 and Tyler Rick at plus 750 to me I think it's going to be Denny haen if I had to choose out of the favorites Kyle Larson won this race last year yes Tyler R going for the regular season Championship sure but Denny Hamlin he's due for a victory and at this track he's been able to do it before in the past plus 700 decent value but if I had to pick one of the favorites it's going to be Hamlin in this one looking at drivers with more value William Byron is first up at plus 12200 he was able to win the day2 500 earlier this year so could he get another Crown Jewel while he was also able to win at Barnsville for Hendrick Motorsports 40th anniversary win there so he's big time byr and he's able to get it done when it matters most not sure if their speed really showcases to me that they'll be in a position to win this race to me I'm honestly looking more towards the Toyotas and Fords in this one but we'll considering uh what may be in this one with the rest of the odds and see who may stand out to us Brad kazlowski plus 12200 as he did win this race in the spring Chris for Bell plus 14400 I like those odds there for Bell I feel like with him winning the poll here last year he's been fast at this type of RAC track and he's able to rip the Highline like we mentioned he could be a driver to look out for Mar trck Jr plus 1200 there that's where things get tricky because he hasn't been fast at this track in the NextGen Carr but at the same time he is great at this track so what do we do here how do we make a play with Trux well to me I gotta St I got to take a step back I got to take a step off because I've been pushing mtj to win so many times this season he just hasn't been able to get it done right now for me I just need them to go out and showcase that they even have the speed to do so Michigan it looked like they had a chance just ultimately blew it just just didn't have the long run speed like Tyler reck did have there so to me decent odds for trck plus 1200 but it's not something that I'm willing to take what if it was anything higher than that in the 14 to 16 range I would consider it Tai Gibbs plus 1600 laying off of him I think he might not even make the playoffs in this one uh we'll see he does have a good enough cushion there in 15th spot in the playoff picture but and he's been running well all season but the last 10 or so Races they just been on a standard decline uh consistently just not finishing where they've been running in terms of speed and everything like that so to me Tai Gibbs I think he will make the playoffs but I think there's I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't I wouldn't be shocked if something happened to him and in this race so to me I think this one's going to be interesting to see if he can get it done in this one Chris busher this is the big one here Chris busher plus 1,800 to win this race outright is huge value I think because he was the fastest car when we were there in may he was it was him and Tyler reick and Chris buer should have won that race Tyler reick gets in him into the wall they both sort of end up finishing back half know 20th 30th there and ultimately didn't work out for berer there but now I think he's looking for revenge and he's looking to make the NASCAR playoffs the only thing I am a little curious about here is he does have a good enough cushion to potentially get in on points well are they going to be racing for points busher continuously sense he's not thinking about points and not want to race for points he wants to just go out and Race For the Win that's fine I believe him and that adds a little bit of confidence for me and I like that value and I he might be on the card stay tuned but to me there's someone else that is going to win there's someone else that is going to need to push the issue to win if Bush was just going out and trying to win the race well there are drivers around the playoff cut line that are looking at points and Racing for points so to me I think they may take risks that Bucher may not want to take at the end of this race but at the same time he was fast here Joey Lano Ryan blay both at plus 2,000 decent odds for those two Pensky guys Joey loano I think that's better value for him rather than blay blay did get into an accident earlier on in the spring so maybe he'll have a good shot for a top 10 in this one I don't see any of those guys winning now Kyle Bush is a key one here plus 3,000 I do like that value for Bush I saw him at DraftKings for plus 1100 that I was not willing to take they only have one top 10 in this race uh for RCR and Kyle Bush throughout their time together so plus 3,000 if you believe in kle Bush and think what they did last week and the kind of more speed rcr's been bringing to the racetrack since Richman with Austin Dylan if you think that's a chance I think he could get it done Chase Elliott plus 2,000 that's only Chevy driver I'm looking at in this one to win this race it's great value and Chase Elliott's been strong here as well he's also has a lot of speed coming from past weeks he's been very consistent Ross Chastain plus 23 down 100 there and to me Ross just hasn't had the speed to go out and win races a lot of people are looking at him to win this one I'm not buying it I'm not being sold on Ross Chastain only W top 10 in the last four races at Darlington you know which driver has four strikes top 10 finishes here that's Bubba Wallace I wouldn't have guessed that myself but it's true and if he's going to want to make the NASCAR playoffs and it's between Ross Chastain and bubble Wallace to potentially win and get in I gotta go with BBA in this one at plus 2,800 sign me up for that I think that's great value for a driver that does need to win and get in now we look at the long shots here in The Underdogs with Eric Jones plus 6600 uh Alex Bowman 50 to1 Josh Barry 60 Chase Brisco 71 t uh Todd Gillan Noah greggson and so on ranging from 100 to one and more to me I think the only driver I would necessarily look at in this one would be uh Eric Jones just because he's won here twice before maybe keep an eye on Chase Brisco 70 to1 he is another driver that I sort of consider to race well when they have to rip The High Line when they're you know running strong at Darlington he's run decent at times here in the past but at the same time it's just not something I consider happening if these drivers are going to win they're going to have to have the track position have to know what their car is like up front and be able to execute on Pit Road too and with those long shot drivers it's just sort of hit or miss when it comes down to crunch time but bubble walls to me plus 2,800 could be the best value in the field here especially compared to Ross Chastain who do you guys think is it gonna be Chastain is it gonna be Wallace or does Chris buer just stay in probably to me it's Chris busher but I was surprised by that stat between Bubba and Chastain there it does seem to favor Wallace but Chastain's getting a lot more noise this week in terms of the people talking about him it's the moment you've all been waiting for it's time for our outright winners in this one I mentioned him before as the favorite if I had to choose any of those top three drivers it's going to be Danny Hamlin 7-1 for Hamlin I don't think is bad value in terms of who was he's up against in this one in terms of Kyle Larson and Tyler reck I'd gladly take Denny Hamlin out of those three next up who I think can present us with some good value and this one is Chris for bell 14-1 for Bell I like those odds there and he's always been able to get it done when a matter most and we saw the co 600 too he was able to have a long run speed car be there at the end now like I said completely different racetrack not comparing the two but I am comparing the way that team gets things done over the long course of a run and be able to make adjustments throughout the night I think with the speed Christopher Bell showed at this track last year yes he needs to stay out of trouble on Pit Road if he does so he can have a strong finish and contend for the victory in this one next up for me Chris busher I've been saying Chris buscher winning at Darlington since he lost race here and to me it's a no-brainer when you see him at 18 to1 plus 18800 for busher he was the fastest car I do understand the risk I'm taking here with other drivers now having to win this race and potentially being a risk for busher to get the win busher is probably going to want to stay out of trouble there but if he consistently has been saying he wants to stay out of the points racing picture just wants to go out and race to me I think that's a good indication that maybe they don't you know try to just stay safe in this one and they actually do go all out to try to get the victory if they do so he was the guy that should have won this race earlier on in the spring you're adding 100 miles yes but to me there's no indication that they're going to be slowing down at this racetrack so plus 1,800 for busher plus, 1400 for Bell plus 700 for Hamlin and this number is just one I can't refuse Chase Elliott at plus 2,000 on FanDuel I don't know why his line is so long I maybe it's because he's qualified poorly here in the past he's ran strong at this track four top 10s in the last seven races here and he's in contention for the regular season Championship so I feel like he's going to go all out to potentially get that win that could really help him in the playoffs with those 15 playoff points that you get if you're doing a little sign searching here well Bill Elliott won at Darlington 30 years ago so Chase Elliott could he get that done value to me definitely leads me to believe that he's worth betting on in this one to pick a playoff driver on the playoff bubble that could potentially be an underdog be an upset winner in this one and lock himself into the NASCAR playoffs it's not going to be Kyle Busch it's not going to be Ross Chastain it's not gonna be Eric Jones it's gonna be bubble Wallace for me plus 2800 is Great Value he's had four straight top that finishes at this racetrack so he's not just good in the spring he's also good in the southern 500 if the Toyotas continue to bring the speed that they have and Bubba is as locked in as I think he is to make the NASCAR playoffs or at least give them a chance to do so it might be worth it to throw a little sprinkle on him for this win in this one firing off some prop bets for you here in this one I like Christopher Bell for a top five at plus 155 Chris buser as well at plus 180 this also helps us if these drivers that we think are going to have on our outright winners card don't end up winning the race like Kyle bus last week and finishing in second it can help us sort of still maintain some value and still make some profit here in this one if they do not end up getting the win so I'd like to balance out our card here with those prop bets especially with the the ones that we think are going to be fast in this one I like Ryan uh Chase Elliot for a top five plus 230 bubble walls plus 260 and those are the drivers I mentioned a long shot could be Chase Brisco at plus 800 for a top five but for a top 10 is where we can find a little bit more value and have a little bit more leeway with that as well to me I'm really looking at Austin Dylan Austin Dylan's finished second here in the southern 500 and he's showing consistent speed whenever we have race here like he does at Richmond could they go out and get a victory it's possible he's plus 130 to to want to win it so I think to me I think Austin done a plus 450 for a top 10 is good value Justin Haley plus 550 he's just someone that's able to continue to race hard and and make progress there throughout the race and then another driver that I can see in this one would be Alex Bowen at plus 165 you know Hendrick equipment Eric Jones as well I do need to mention Eric Jones for a top 10 at plus 110 as he's been strong at this racetrack every time we've been here been able to win here multiple times so Eric Jones could get a top 10 in this one at plus 110 I think Austin D probably be my favorite top 10 bet there in plus 450 just value-wise but I think the top five is may be where it at in order to be able to round out our card structure it properly to make profit if the outright winners don't win but I do believe those CS will be fast and then we might be able to double up on a driver that does win and finishes inside the top five because of it or a driver that doesn't win and still finishes in top five with someone that does win for us so that's always the key with those outright winners in terms of making the prop bets work the best way they can with them now to round things out for some favorite plays it's going to be the guys that present us with the most value in this one and that's Chase Elliott 20 to1 win this race outright with the signs and the storylines and just the past finishes he's been able to have at this racetrack I feel like they're continuously showing speed whenever they just unload and I think that's going to be important at this racetrack where it's not comparable to many others here in this one I also could say Chris butcher for this one with the same sort of mindset 18 to1 to win this race he's finished third in this race last year and led 21 lives in the spring in a race that he should have won that'll do it for this edition of through the gears be sure to check out the stock car scoop coming out after every Sunday's race and be sure to let me know who you think is going to win the race in the comments down below if you have any comments questions or concerns about this NASCAR betting weekend be sure to let me know as well comment it down below be sure to get back to you before the start of Sunday's race be sure to follow me on social media as well at Tino Pat and know if there's any updates to the betting card I would say before practiceing qualifying would be the best time to get these bets in we could see a lot of closing line value with Chase Elliott and Christopher Bell even Chris Bucher as well with the values that they're set at right now so be sure to capitalize there that's when I'll be doing my betting action as well and you can follow me on social media like I mentioned for more updates and more content throughout this race weekend I'll see you guys next time as we go through the the gears