where will Michigan State football improve on the field in 2024 me and Maxwell klitz we have six stats that we are feeling very comfortable about let's go you are locked on Spartans your daily podcast on the Michigan State Spartans part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day Spartan friends Spartan family locked on Spartans listeners thank you all so much for tuning in to lockdown Spartans your team in green white five days a week this show is going to be a treat and no not just because it took me roughly 16 takes to do the opener right there I don't know if there's a gas leak going on in this house or or what that that was a a slow stumble off the blocks over here Maxwell but no the real reason this will be a treat is because we got the one the only Maxwell klitz back in the mix with us you might remember last year he he rewatched all those just beautiful great football games from 2022 we talked to him about that this is gonna be a little more optimistic we have some stats that we really love for Michigan State to improve upon in the upcoming year but before that Maxwell my man how we doing over there oh I'm doing great I'm actually relieved that Alan Hower made the move and brought in a brand new coaching staff so I don't have to rewatch any of those games again he really did me a favor there it was really appreciate it so shout out to before we get kicked loyal listener alen how I know he doesn't miss an episode of lockdown Spartans but yeah he kind of like freed you from this prison sentence that no you kind of put on yourself but you know oh well it' be like that sometimes yeah uh look there is no shortage of stats Michigan State can improve on for the upcoming year this was the homework assignment I gave Maxville I said hey we're Each G to come into the show with three stats we are feeling comfortable with they can range from very basic like I'll have a basic stat here very to very anal itical I believe Maxwell has one of those so six stats total again guys it's probably close to 600 stats that we can improve on next year but these are the six that we are feeling the most confident about Maxwell as the esteemed guest here bat first baby walk us out what are you feeling the hottest about as we go into the summer here ahead of another football season in E laning Yeah so the one stat I'll be it very simple but at the end of the day it is the most important stat it's the W column oh iCal right off the bat then here we go know really digging deep into this obviously so much goes into winning a football game and losing a football game as we found out last year um but five wins in 2022 four wins in whatever last year was um you know with this new staff and even with the defense because I thought the defense was a bold team defense maybe a six and six seven and five defense obviously outmatched when we play the the Ohio State the Penn State uh even Michigan Washington last year um not not great obviously um but in the other games I think they proved that they were a good team um they definitely could compete and they kept their team in those games um and we'll cover it in a minute but if uh some of the offensive stats were a bit better um they may have even found a way to go bowling um if some things go a little differently so um obviously Jonathan Smith coming in has to set a tone um and I just think you know getting over that four or five win hump and into a bowl game would would be a good Baseline uh for where this this regime starts I'm gonna start with we'll call it an offensive stat right now it it takes two to tango with this stat but it is offensive dominant here and that's time of possession because this has been something that will under melt this this was not part of Michigan State's DNA like I I I don't ever know what the uh the the identity of Michigan State football was under Mel Tucker but it certainly wasn't holding on to the ball for long periods of time on offense last year our Spartans had the ball for 27 minutes and 55 seconds per game that was dead last in the Big 10 and just a smooth 115th in the country the year before that was even worse 26 minutes and 13 seconds that was seventh worst not not in the Big 10 in all of football even when things were great I'm wearing my peach bow Championship shirt right now I'm trying to bring the high Vibes right now even during that extraordinary season Michigan state was 100th in the country at time of possession so look obviously it wasn't the last two years that they were just scoring too quick like it was in 2021 no that wasn't the problem there's a lot more problems than that but still you need to hold on to the ball because that also helps the defense give them a little bit of rest now on the flip side last year Oran State who obviously a lot of the staff is from they were just average in the country they were around the 60s the year before that they were 22nd best in the country so there is something to be said about how Oregon State uh game plans for their opponent it's a lot of run dominance they are a lot more run dominance in the splits than Michigan state has been in years past so that is one I'm feeling comfortable about for two reasons one the bar is just so low on Improvement and that's kind of a theme with the stats here that I have at least that there's a lot of room for improvement and the other is well we've seen Jonathan Smith uh Brian lingren the offensive coordinator kind of script games to be dominant with time of possession so that I know it's not as sexy as a win in the win column but it could certainly help you get to that side of things here Maxwell so that is what I'm feeling really good about here going into the next season yeah the other team can't beat you if you have the ball ideally not yeah yeah I got the occasional pick six can happen uh then okay no that's a good point yeah I I'll I'll edit that part out yeah you you got me there okay shoot number two so yeah this one gets a little more in the weeds um my stat is uh offensive EPA per play I love this I love this um so obviously not all yards are created equal um you know getting in down in distance isn't created equal either so uh gaining two yards and a third and one at the your opponent's 15 is worth a lot more than uh converting a second and one at your own 30 uh yard line so in this uh it waits it obviously in expected points per play that's what the acronym is um mat do you want to take a guess in 2022 where Michigan State ranked an EPA per play top 10 in the country no I I don't even think they were top 10 in the Big 10 uh not not anywhere close to good no uh so they were 93rd in 22 and that's why I started to do a lot of those rewatches because like was it really as bad as the numbers were out um it found a way to get worse in 2023 that's amazing that's amazing in 20123 they ranked 126th in the country I know we're doing a lot it seemed like it too it felt like it oh yeah yeah we've expanded you know like Sam Houston State came in it was their first year we got Kennesaw State coming in this coming season so like the field is expanding so like 126 isn't the bottom but it is there's not many there's not many more teams um below them in that stat so why pretty optimistic is I mean you flushed essentially everybody from the offense um For Better or Worse whatever you thought of the quarterback room everyone's gone completely turned over hard reset staff outside of Courtney Hawkins who um was believed to be really the only salvageable piece of that uh the whole staff let alone just the offensive staff he's returning and you're bringing in you know Jonathan Smith who's a quarterback um himself um Lind grin who Smith and him have been together for a while now um and just last year Oregon State ranked 13th uh in the country by the same metric so that's not only just showing that they're good with the ball when they have it it's also they're very efficient um when they have the ball too they're making they're not getting you know huge losses on certain plays especially in key leverage moments was what we saw all the time um even when they got going a little bit you know there would be a play that would derail the whole drive and they wouldn't be able to overcome it um so I think fresh Minds obviously bringing in Childs and um and Jake Belling and you know all the other pieces in that room and everything that's returning I think is um a good step for in the right direction and it's just fresh blood new energy so we'll obviously get a bump up from 126 I'll be thrilled if we have the 60th ranked EPA per play sure offensively it's all Market Improvement if that's the case hey look our over under is five and a half we we just need average football to get to that over right like it's not that I'm really just in the bargaining stage here brother I'm I'm right with you man I think many of R um this isn't one stat that I'm going to call out but yes last year Michigan state did lead the nation in 312 bullets shot directly in their own feet throughout the whole season I have never seen anything like it and I hope to never see anything like it again the rest of my life I just want some stability here in East laning Maxwell those were two awesome ones man going just for you know that the basic average fan just win column this will improve then bang EPA on offense that's right just hitting them with a hard Whiplash of stats there so I got two more stats want to to Maxwell has one more and then I got a stat too that I'm actually worried won't improved because we can't just be happy the entire episode apparently um but first need to talk all your ears off about Amazon Fire TV Fire TV is your destination for sports from live games to Highlights to in-depth analysis Fire tv offers amazing viewing experiences with Smart TVs as well as the Fire TV stick that you can plug into your existing TV that provides access to millions of movies and TV episodes as well as 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people here Maxwell and look I know full well that for people with short attention spans this could get confusing and I say that because I am one of these people but I'm going to try to boil us down into something very simple because number two of what I think will improve here is opponent passing plays that go for 10 and 20 plus yards what was Michigan State I was going to say really good at but what were they trying to be really good at was Ben don't break like all right we're going to let them get whatever they want inside the 20s then when they're in the Red Zone time to bat down the hatches okay this is what that meant these are 10 plus yard pass plays for opponents for Michigan State last year 117 of those that was 95th in the country in 2022 128 such plays that was 105th in the country the peach bow year the awesome year 154 of those plays that was dead last in college football now let's flip over to Minnesota that's who we just robbed the defensive coordinator from Joe Rossi so this is where Minnesota was in 10 plus yard pass plays 109 last year that was average 60th but before that 20 22 they were ninth best in the country 2021 ninth best in the country and 2019 I skipped the co year because the validity around that year okay whatever 33rd best in the country Point Blank under Joe Rossi we're not doing Ben don't break we're just doing how about we just don't break ever how about we just keep the game in front of us through the 20 yard lines how about we just do a little bit of that does that make sense Maxwell or yeah I mean I know who Tyler nuban is and you know if I know a defensive back for the University of Minnesota that says something yeah yeah because I mean obviously the only other Big W Big 10 West defensive back I could possibly name is Cooper dein and sure yeah you know the fact that those are the only two probably speaks volumes to what um Rossi was able to do in Minnesota I do I did remember that he was coming off of more of a Down year this past year um I think a lot of that could you could attribute to some loss of players and you know everybody has their their down years but consistently I think we've shown that he's able to stop and it's you know you want to prevent it from happening instead of just dealing with it and think Hazelton and whatever we were doing on the back end um was just like uh this is kind of how we have to do it uh this is the only way it's really going to go um but I think you know having having those guys that were freshman and true freshman like playing getting those reps and getting burned um to be in all honesty because that's what was happening not fair to them because you know you don't want you're freshman to get out there and getting burned but I think they learned from that and I think um you know with Coach meat and Coach blue which are just to have DB coaches named meet and blue is just phenomenal The Vibes are already Liv are already so much better um I think I mean blue said today in their in their op pressor um there's definitely guys that they want to work that they have to work with and he said there's guys that can play at the next level so I'm hoping that we see that translated on the field and that's not just traits that they're seeing I hope it's something translatable so yeah definitely hope that improves because it can't get any worse really so hopefully all those losses turn into lessons and yeah you're talking about like true freshman out there of got chance Rucker going just one-on-one against just Marvin Harrison Jr in Columbus it's like this is like inhumane but hopefully something good comes out of this it ain't ever gonna get harder for him throughout his entire career uh so as a baseline yeah get it's only gonna get better you would you would certainly hope so really quick I was going to go through 20 plus yard pass plays for opponents in the last three years Michigan State 101st in the country 29th in the country last or two years ago actually and then three years ago during the peach B year 118th in that metric and then Minnesota for comparison last year they were averag 56th but then 23d eighth best in the country eighth best in the country so yes keeping the game in front of you on defense is something that Joe Rossi is known to do so I'm feeling good about that improving this upcoming year uh Maxwell you got one more stat man go ahead and walk it out for us yep so I went all offense um I don't know what that says about me I maybe I have more hope in the defense so I'm a little wishy-washy and if or again a lot of room for improvement a lot of room for improvement on that side of the ball low hanging through it on offense so yeah um speaking of throwing the ball my third stat is a total qbr um this is a stat that takes into account um you know the quarterback's true effect on the game especially when he's passing the ball takes things like I spoke about earlier like EPA and and some other metrics in so ES PN is the one that kind of houses the metrics so say what you want about it is a fairly accurate metric um in 2022 pton Thorne out of you know 30 some quarterbacks in college football ranked 38 and we obviously were like yeah we definitely saw some frustrations and but there was definitely some good pieces there and some good things there and then he moves on um he gets his Chevy and is doing whatever Hugh frees is yelling at him I could do a whole show on that so I won't derail it now but uh I think you know how I personally feel about Payton Thon so I think you read his jersey under your hoodie actually if I'm not mistaken I think I see H every day good yeah War Eagle number all the way um but in 2023 you know we we start off with Noah Kim he looks really good in Don K and then we play Washington and then we get into the conference play and that doesn't look very good and then we flip to kayen Hower um For Better or Worse whatever you think Ken haer's ceiling is uh me personally I was very high on him coming in so it was disappointing to see you know be it offensive system or just not executing it was a shame that he struggled um so Michigan State in 2023 with Kon Hower um Kayon ranked 998th out of 120 some quarterbacks that were eligible for the metric he wasn't last in the Big 10 because Deacon Hill I believe was second to last in the country um so that just kind of goes to show of yeah how Iowa is exists and it's I can't believe Deacon Hill wasn't dead last I mean like again like he he beat us this isn't sour grapes but like every game after that wow I was questioning if he right hand it's incredible so obviously I think this stacking Prov obviously because at the time that he transferred K Aiden Charles was the number one transferred quarterback um in 247 then Gabriel went in the portal and then some other guys came in so I think he's like sitting at like third or second or third even um and obviously small sample size with him only doing third drives in mop-up Duty he was able to register a qbr number he was able to get that um many numbers so um keep in mind dju I believe finished around 20th um in the qbr ranking which is you know very good especially especially solid and everything kind of right where you would love to have your quarterback be um so Aiden Charles if you extrapolated his small sample size to his whole season body of work if you played a whole season uh he would have been sixth in the country um in qbr uh he would have been just behind k at Liberty um Michigan State recruiting product yeah um but he would also be ahead of some significant names like Noah faid at Arizona um KY McCord at Ohio State Jaylen milro and then uh quarterback qb2 uh most likely and Drake May so you know that's something significant um obviously smaller sample sizes his work like I said is doing in in mop-up duty but we've seen the practice Clips we've heard the ra the raving from the coaches and even the DBS and everything about um the talent that Aiden has and being [Music] comfortable I think it really comes down to what the surrounding pieces can do I don't think it'll be an issue of um Aiden not executing not being able to do his job I do think that it's kind of okay can we get our wide receiver room to get separation in get open can we um get that offensive line humming um to be able to give him some time um and to do to do what he does and sit in the pocket are we scheming up proper you know plays to get Guys open so it doesn't take 15 seconds for guys to run an out route into the flat um that sort of thing so that's definitely something I think that we'll greatly see an improvement on I don't want to handicap and say like that Aiden's goingon to be a top 10 QB um based off of qbr next year would it shock me um I'm gonna go out on a limb and say no it wouldn't Shock Me based off of the tools and everything that we have but if he like even a top 30 top 25 quarterback it puts Michigan State in a great position um to really set the tone and really put themselves back in the map nationally absolutely absolutely and I got one more stat I'll be quick on that and then I do want to bounce a stat that I'm actually not so sure is going to improve here on the other side of this break but Maxwell I'm actually G to keep you on the screen for this one because we're gonna talk FanDuel and I gotta bet that I want to bounce off you here we're talking FanDuel America's number one sports book the sports calendar is loaded and FanDuel is making it even more exciting to get in on the action guys you know that my bracket has been blown to Smither ever since the tournament started that thing was lit on fire within 36 hours but luckily the fun keeps going with FanDuel including for this week's final four Maxwell turned me on to this he said hey just look up DJ Burns props here for this upcoming Final Four his over under 14 and a half points Maxwell give it to us are we going over are we betting on America's sweetheart to go over you know from a pure player hater spot and position we have to go with the over I'm AF if NC State is going to take down Purdue DJ Burns has to cook so got go for 29 he's gotta for 29 minimum let's go yeah ra raise the roof on that that's what I'm talking about folks if you want to ride with us here and if you're a new customer it gets even sweeter because right now new customers get $200 in bonus Bets with any winning $ five bet just go ahead and throw five smackaroos on DJ Burns over points or hey if you really want to grow that money bet on him eight plus rebounds at plus 720 woo they're not expecting a lot of rebounds from him and why would you anyway that's 200 bucks that you could bet on the turny MLB NBA NHL and so much more visit fanduel.com lockdown make your first bet a big win it's FanDuel official sorry America's number one Sportsbook that's a great end to that ad read There by Yours Truly over here I just the English language very very hard for me today this is crazy um wow I'm going to mix of water in today I think uh all right my last stat that I have here a basic one one that's very important one that I completely whiffed on last year if I could just call myself out for this one we did like a episode of Bold predictions I said our yards per average is gonna or yards per carry is gonna double yeah we were on that together yeah did over under together at the beginning of the show I was afraid so this this all does feel very familiar and you know you know what they say Chase your losses because we're going back to the well here now I'm not going to say they're going to double yards per carry here but um this goes back to they got a lot of room for improvement here it was 2.9 last year 2.9 yards per carry that was in the basement of the Big 10 so I have two reasons as to why I think this will improve one it's who Michigan state has guys I I I know this sounds a little crazy I still think Nathan Carter is a plus running back here in this conference he just needs actual people that could Block in front of him and hey perhaps maybe offensive coordinator that can actually scheme up a run game with the slightest bit of Competency I don't know maybe I'm asking for a lot here but regardless I like the trio of running backs coming back from Michigan State plus the interior offensive line you have Tanner Miller the transfer from Oregon State you have Luke Newman from Holy Cross and also goo vanderark but also who Michigan state has brought in as coaches the last three years for Oregon State their yards per carry 4.9 yards per carry 4.8 yards per carry the year before that and then the year before that 5.3 yards per carry now I will say this with the cavia I I understand the Pack 12 isn't known to have like Steel Curtain defenses okay like I I'm fully aware of that but still with the way that they organize their run game I'll go back to the Run pass ratio here there's emphasis on the Run game they didn't find success just because they locked into it that is a continued pattern with Jonathan Smith and Brian lingren so again the bar is actually beneath my feet right now 2.9 yards per carry is where we were at last year I'm feeling good about that improving though for next year um now Maxwell I do have one stat that I do want to bark out here that I'm actually worried won't improve next year not to not to like end the show with like a cold bucket of water well I'm on so we might as well we might as well lean all the way into When in Rome is the season just throw every cliche there last year Michigan state had 29 sacks okay that was eighth best in the Big 10 I want to add context to those 29 sacks seven of them came against the Itsy bits spiders of Richmond okay three of them came against Central Michigan so 10 of your 29 sacks came in those first two gimme games right like that so we're we're talking 19 sacks in your last 10 games here when you're actually starting to play adult competition you had just three sacks against Michigan Ohio State and Penn State combined now I do know that we have returners coming back Avery Dunn Chris Bogel they played 20 games last year they combined for one and a half sacks and I know that all sacks don't come from defensive ends believe me but still primarily it's where you'd like them to come from have they hit their ceiling can we expect that much improvement out of them and also I do know this that we have Jaylen Thompson by job and Andrew to Pape right now ready to Blossom his sophomores but still that's a lot to put on sophomores that we know close to little about other than the fact that they were really good recruits coming out Jaylen Thompson he kind of shined at the end of last year but still I I I do Wonder H and again sax isn't like the all be off for winning games but God Bless America it helps I am a little worried that the sack number kind of hovers around that 29 spot talk me out of it or no it's up to you yeah you know I kind of agree I I think part of it it's tough to it's tough to really know right because we're turning over a brand new defensive staff so you would be hopeful that you like oh the last staff just didn't utilize these players properly can I say this really quick yeah sorry to interrupt but like Joe I sorry I totally missed my last bullet point Minnesota's also rarely in the in the top half of the Big 10 to under Joe Rossy for Sachs like obviously he's had good defenses here but like it it isn't because they're rushing the quarterback which I think is like very interesting because usually that's where it all starts anyway so I just wanted to you brought it up like the new staff so I just wanted to add context to the new staff too no that's no and that's a that's a good point because obviously whenever you have something that's bad you get something new you always look at the positives of it um but I think with with the guys in the room you know with some of them we know what they are we know what their skill set is we know what they're good at I think a lot of it is predicated on what situational football is this team G to end up in are we in positions in third and longs to Pin ears back and get a guys um are we going to decide to um you know get exotic on a first and second down and send pressure and maybe try to rail a drive before we get put into an all passing situation I think last year we saw that they just went base for so much of their offense and it was really so much of the defense really frustrating to not really see them necessarily change a bunch of stuff until it was maybe you know you get burned by it three or four times um you know sending you know I'm wondering I'm curious to watch in in watching Minnesota I need to watch back to see you know how much simulated pressure we have what what are we doing to confuse the opposing quarterbacks because especially um if you look at the quarterback across the conference there's a lot of turnover a lot of new guys coming in yes scheming and everything now they'll all have the benefit of having in their their offensive coordinators in their ears this year um as opposed to doing check with me as in the sideline and everything with the inh helmet communication so I think it's just a lot of it is just predicated on H are we getting into third and Longs and what's what's the attitude of a Joe Rossy defense does he want to send pressure make things confusing and you know if we do simulated pressures and stuff like that and we look like we're sending you know seven or eight and we pull three or four back well are we confusing the offensive line well enough and they Slide the wrong protection and we getting kind of easy sacks that way um you know I think because we went BAS often it was a struggle for um you know the guys because it's just one-on ones and it's really easy to just play one-on-one so game offensive lineman so so yeah I was I'm concerned about that one too it's just a wait and see thing for me but I'm kind of leaning towards maybe maybe not because like I'm I'm goinging through all these stats and like I'm trying to will it into existence like hey Sachs will get better uh oh wait a minute hold on why why why should I believe that like we have two returning guys who I think have hit their ceiling it's not like Joe rossy's system is is known for just absolutely badgering the quarterback in the back field but hey you know what we'll we'll just have to wait and see Max any anything else add that you you want to just you know rail on here before we let you go enjoy the rest of your day oh there's I mean there's a lot but yeah understandable it's not a it's I mean I need a whole show to do it so okay we'll get you back on the books don't worry oh yeah yeah just the one thing I probably just rud rail against right now is just I'm so sick of hearing the question so you know how do you think the new guys are really jelling with the current guys uh in spring fall you know like you know are you helping them along and just everybody the answer is the same oh yeah it's going great I think everybody's been really meshing really well um typical spring ball answers we don't need to hear the questions anymore all the assistant coaches say the same thing I like went through so many of those interviews today and it is all the same and it's just like what are we doing guys what else could the answer be like you think an assistant coach is going to say well yeah actually this offensive lineman just put Anthrax in Tanner Miller's Locker because he's not thrilled him being here like no yeah I don't of course everyone's getting lot everyone's wearing the same uniform at the end of the day like you think that adding competent coaches and good teammates is really the worst thing any existing player on this team has seen in the last few months my God are you kidding me it was like so last year so last year and it's like it's a whole new staff yeah I know they're going to say last year is last year and like oh well we weren't here oh we didn't really watch them a lot because we were we were coaching our own team it's yeah so that's been fun can we get can we dig a Little Deeper guys please as a as a fan and is just like amateur armchair and let's just can we can we dig a Little Deeper you have the chance no the answer no just just to get out front of that one this is this isn't Alabama they won't take your they won't take your credentials away if you ask question different different School in the same state that's very confusing some of them work the same beat at the same time so you can get your wires crossed I I nevertheless if I could just throw that barb in there at the very end but uh Maxwell always always a treat having you on thanks a lot for doing the homework of bringing three great stats here and just checking me on mine over here um that was a lot of numbers with hey people are star for football there's less than three weeks until this spring game Bonanza but uh folks we will be talking about Michigan State football until then and Beyond here locked on Spartans we're going be talking a little bit of Hoops tomorrow too and then hey at the end of this week even more football with Matt wizel of M life but until then keep it tuned lock on Spartans love you all especially over there Maxwell go green thanks