Daily Brew 08/30/24

now presenting Mr Mike coin Governor's hurricane conference board member presenting the National Weather Service good afternoon everyone our next award is the tropical meteorology award it's presented to an individual or organization that has made outstanding or substantial contributions to the Advan and knowledge application or understanding of the hurricane forecasting and warning process in the State of Florida since 2004 Mr Mike has educating people about Trends model runs and everything else tropical weather related through his website he does not forecast but his dedication and contribs to the citizens of Florida and providing tropical weather information in layman's terms helping to explain what the forecast Trends mean and how to follow all the extensive Maps charts and graphs located on his website Mike's WEA page aka spaghettimodels.com the 2021 meteorology award goes to mikeand of Mike's WEA page Mike's got a and to [Music] know wind rain tell you if it's going to be a storm if it's going to be a hurricane don't you the news [Music] all right good morning everybody it's Friday what's cooking out there hope everybody's doing well out there good morning we'll say hello for a few minutes I have to leave early so we will not be on very long today I'm going to try to get right into the tropics here in a second and uh we will um have to cut it a little short so not as many as hell as normal today's a big day I'll tell you here in a second all right so this is Hunter he came up to me today so everybody say hello Hunter lots to talk about we got two little spots now above me two spots we're going to talk about mainly the one spot the orange spot yellow spot too far away to talk about thank you doc what's up there meta Matrix is how you say it uh what's up Richard reamer Michael Soul let's cat up cooking Lester from Fort Meyers John from the Outer Banks cool cool Heather what's up brenon Lauren that's my home Tony going on a cruise on 99 well you better watch it always watching the weather in September Ryan says no more rain and Sarasota I believe it Megan says hello Hunter wake up what's up Steve there in Golfport how's it going what's up there Robin Florida girl in south Georgia lulo uh Lou is sleeping in his bed we uh we we share him hey what's up mie man good to see you Daytona man that was fun wasn't it had a great time what's up Martin what's up Cheryl all right what's going on Tropic talking talking Tropics well today's a cool day for me it's going on right now but I I had to tell them I'll be over there later uh we're mixing the beer today at Tima Bay Brewing Company uh spaghetti model IPA is being what do you say brewed cooked so there going to be some videos of me uh putting putting in the Hops today um really excited about it ABC obviously here on the picture big supporter of ours here at Mike page and uh we got a couple tastings coming up at ABC in October Winter Garden is Wednesday the 9th and KOCO Beach is going to be the 10th of October so if you're in those areas we really want you to come by and say hi I think it's 5: to 7:00 p.m. on both of those locations so I'll definitely be sharing that that's over a month away um but we would love to see you guys and gals and the Winter Garden area in the Coco Beach area uh and we're going to have free samples and tastings of the spaghetti model IPA and you can pick up some and all that good stuff so big thanks ABC all right let's talk Tropics here like I said I got to cut it short I won't be too short but um I'll make sure you get all the good information last but not least too by the way I'm gonna be at the Florida home show this weekend on Sunday and Monday if you're going to be over this way it might rain over here in Tampa Bay on Monday Labor Day so if you're going to the 39th Annual home show at the state's Fairgrounds I'll be speaking on at noon both days Sunday and Monday okay I'll be doing a hurricane presentation so come by and see me hey big thanks my buddy Brian at Publix they sent me a huge gift bag my wife's been there 37 years man but here's two cool little trucks I just wanted to show you that they gave me thanks if you're watching Brian I told Brian I'd share him today but man I got all kinds of cool stuff from Publix that was pretty cool there's the tropics let's get into it um that's a bunch of blobs out there right uh um so again I got to cut it short so we're going go right into Tropics I'm not being rude we usually say hi for a few more minutes but uh let's talk about everything though so we got a couple things let's talk about this little guy this is been happening uh it's it's a really wild dip into jet stream coming down it looks like it's spinning but it's actually just the jet stream WINS however however you always watch these little guys especially this time year so there are a few models hitting early next week we can see a little weak low upper level lows like this could sometimes break off and and actually become something so we'll be keeping AO close eye on this nothing to be stressed about but the golf is always sneaky this time of year uh there are a few models hitting a weak low pressure next week this little setup here looks impressive on satellite but it's really nothing uh it's actually going to be fueling around the Bahamas some of that energy is going to get pushed up into Florida a little bit so again if all upper level winds causing this off the Carolinas too so these aren't anything tropical to worry about this is the area that we're watching um it's down to 40% keeping it real 40% I was surprised they lowered the chances uh as it makes its way into the Caribbean so a couple days ago there's a lot of them showing a recurve but that ain't happening it looks like it's going to be going west weaker West uh so this is what we're going to be focusing on there is a wave coming off of Africa there's another one here on the map we're going to show you but this is what we're going to focus on here this morning because there's a lot of models I need to show you some scenarios but it looks like there's no hurricanes Labor Day weekend lot of y'all remember storms during labor day so enjoy the weekend if you're celebrating labor maybe you're maybe you're having a baby um here's the lower level wins uh obviously this is a big flow of moisture just kind of going this direction you can see there's no circulation uh this flows important important because whatever happens out here in this area we're watching is probably going to follow this flow in the short term um so you can see that going on right now if you flip on the um upper level winds 250 milbar you can see what I was talking about we have some winds coming down and some winds kind of going up here it's all it's a big mess it's a big upper level high now I mean it's just a mess but uh that's why we not worried about that spot in the golf at the moment there's a lot of wind shear a lot of stuff happening creating this Con convection and uh whatnot but we are looking at this little guy uh this one is not developed yet it does appear like there's circulation a little bit um there's you know there's 850 miar this is the basic area we're watching um we don't have spaghetti spetti models yet we we only get spaghetti models once we have an invest it's not an invest yet so if you're wondering where the spaghetti models are we don't have any yet I have Ensemble spaghetti models which are Euro and GFS based but we don't have the actual spaghetti models you all are used to yet because it's not an invest it looks like I just drew drew a little person there hey there you go um but that's kind of where it's at you know know it's not very organized 700 mbars looking pretty decent you know so it's trying for sure there's a couple uh competing uh spins maybe so it's it's not 100% yet defined um but it's getting there weaker it goes the more West it goes and of course the area behind we're going to talk a little bit about um back to real quick just to show you the rainfall here for the next seven days that blob in the Gulf uh still going to see heavy heavy rain Coastal Louisiana some's going to be making get it way to Mississippi now uh some of this moisture is coming across the State of Florida that's why the southern half of Florida is very wet this pattern that we've been seeing here in Naples uh Fort Meers Tampa Bay Area um it's going to continue with the afternoon storms we're starting to see a little bit more rain on the Florida East Coast as that moisture blob is from a wave it's going to be making its way kind of through the state all the way to early part of next week that's that first wave we talked about last week that was going to be maybe something to watch that's kind of going going into the golf and that's why it could combine a little bit with our area in the golf early next week but basically these are your rainfalls to kind of know what's coming right excessive rain real quick obviously flooding possible across Texas and Louisiana today and also tomorrow here's Saturday uh you know yellow's not too bad uh then we have a little bit continuing uh into um Sunday and Monday and then into uh early next week it's kind of backs off a little bit so the next 3 days especially Heavy Rain there uh coming up to the gulf here's the tropics uh this is the latest 8:00 update now overnight they had this highlighted all orange meaning they could see development anytime well now they delayed the development with this Arrow they don't expect development until it gets into this Orange area more late weekend early next week the Orange is not the track the Orange is where they believe that development Could Happen a lot of folks confused and they think that's the track well that is the area that they believe we could see development and they they lowered the chances to 40 I was honestly surprised to tell you the truth but like we always say follow the National Hurricane Center the National Weather Service for official information because I tend to confuse people but I have been doing the same thing forever tracking Tropics looking at ensembles looking long range throwing out opinions so if it's not for you that's cool apparently reading comments it's not for a lot of folks lately so but I didn't read comments last night I'm you know I start and then I stop I do go to x x is a little more civil so if you really want to and then if 100% join our mwp chat.com and be a subscriber and uh you guaranteed we chat there we have a good crew over there all right so that's 40% that's 20% there's another wave coming off I'm going to show you here in a second this is what it looks like uh vorticity wise uh 850 mbar here this is 500 milar I got them backwards this is 850 right here yeah 850 850 very sloppy elongated low across that in Tropics Convergence Zone so you can tell right here there's really no clearcut circulation right now that's why it's not an invest they really don't want to guess where the center is because it hasn't truly developed yet uh 500 marar you know got these competing vorticities a little bit um so that's what they're waiting on area behind it is very broad also takes time takes time for these things to develop you can see here the upper level 500 too by the way that's that upper level disturbance so definitely you know it's not highlighted by the NC but man anything that sits and hovers over the golf uh for several days needs to be watched um not needs that's a that's that's a rough word uh uh uh uh um don't forget about our little guy in the Gulf how about that what do I got open here all right ensembles all right let me put these up here um we're going to get into this here in a little bit but uh trying to talk about things you know I shared yesterday we had three model runs that were exactly the same so I figured it was worth pointing out it was um credible yesterday's afternoon runs were like to the point curving up towards the golf Canadian GFS Euro icon kind of didn't go out that far so I was like yeah that's a pattern that's consistent and then yesterday models went Every Which Way uh the 12z dropped it completely 6z showed it Z didn't now we're back to showing it again model operational model runs go every which way they they they they they go here they go there they go there but there's a method to the madness and ensembles help a lot of times more than anything so the individual runs that you like to see they they're going to go everywhere right now and that's just the way it goes uh the fact is that we still see a lot of them showing it means we got to keep a close eye on on this thing that's my unprofessional opinion now the latest Euro last night uh very weak low in bise okay 45 knots at 850 marbar so very weak low okay but the ensembles had about 10 or so of it's 50 showing a developing system in the Caribbean and then curving up and that was that exact pattern that we saw yesterday with those other operational models so this scenario still in my experience is still on on the plate and we need to you know don't think this thing is not going to be 100% in the b or Mexico is a weak system I mean I'm going to show you some operational runs that are showing this possibly you know continuing this strengthening pattern and being something to watch the following weekend everybody wants to know about timing I know but if it were to reach if it were to reach lower Florida it would be next weekend Friday Saturday the earliest if it went into the golf more like Sunday Monday the following weekend not this weekend not Labor Day the following weekend um these are ensembles here that go out to next Friday I stopped this one a little short the other one was 10day ensembles this is the latest um 7-Day ensembles showing you basically this time next Friday this is our orange 40er somewhere in here this is our yellow wave and then we have a new wave that's expected to emerge off Africa in the next week that's going to be somewhere about right here so this one is still showing a little bit more lift but you know we'll have to see the things always change um but it's important for anything just to know that we could have three things Friday of next week somewhere here somewhere here and somewhere here and you can see there's some weak weak lows still showing up in the golf here um from from that system there so but I want to show you the individual model runs now these are the ones to get everybody all worked out let's go straight to the the GFS so yesterday's 6z run let me show you this one real quick uh these are on tropicaltidbits.com his server got back up really quick yesterday um the this is the one that was like oh my God so wheek development this is yesterday I'm going to show you how the GFS changes in gets everybody worked up but the pattern is there to keep watching okay this was yesterday morning uh this is that one run that showed 980 strengthening 950 okay that's pretty serious but then look at the 12z six hours later absolutely Zippo and I I shared that I told everybody that so it's not like I'm only showing the worst case case now the GFS 18z last night you know really nothing maybe a little development down here in the boc now here's that new wave going a little farther um a little farther west so this is the orange guy this is the yellow guy um and then last nights overnight z00 Z run oh it showed weak development here in the boc and then there's our second wave popping into play so it's keeping our second wave um a little more West and then the last 60 today completely back to showing um our system developing and actually going now back up into the the Louisiana so and this is next Sunday so it looks like it's developing the second little blob not the yellow but I'm talking about the second vorticity but so so you'll drive your you'll be pulling your hair out of your head but you can see that there's enough consistency there that that that pattern is not to be ignored for sure um and this timing if you're curious it' be Tuesday a week from Tuesday now your icon's been extremely consistent um on development of our system and there's a weak low in the Gulf on Monday here is our low crossing the uh Caribbean on Tuesday 1005 th6 and you know it starts to develop next Wednesday 1004 in the golf this is next Wednesday and it starts to develop close to Jamaica there and it really develops in 970 so you know there's that outside is some low pressure developing next early next week still from that leftover uh juice and then that wave it's coming across currently around Bahamas and Cuba uh but you know the icon developing something it only stops at 180 hours so we don't get to see past that um the latest uh 6z only runs 120 hours and there's our low there's our low this is Tuesday Tuesday so the Euro has been oh all over Place here's yesterday's 6z Euro showing nothing the overnight Euro yesterday oh we don't even have a z z on this one this when Levi's site was having trouble yesterday's 12z in the Euro showing our weak low here on uh Monday Tuesday and it starts to develop it and it stops it right here Sunday so that's a sign of something lifting a week from Sunday the last night Euro overnight not much weak low down into B there that's one I showed in that one graphic and then we just got the 6z Euro out big difference uh Tuesday development 10 10008 it stops it right there at 90 so again we got something to watch okay that that's the bottom line that orange spot has definitely got potential to do something here in the Caribbean so we just too many uncertainties right now to be worried about anything but I think timing wise we know you know anybody going in that that area no needs need to be paying attention to it that's the bottom line um Canadian model has been off and on like all of them here's the latest Oz and weak low nothing yesterday's 12z pretty strong little system I mean I've never seen the models flip-flop so bad on all the models so here's uh Monday Tuesday crossing the islands Canadian getting very close to yukatan on Wednesday getting close to Jamaica on Wednesday and Thursday and then it crosses Cuba and obviously gets into golf that would be a week that's Sunday morning but that pattern is what I'm just you know just looking at a lot um and zomble wise on the Euro we can look here at Tropical tidbits you can see um generally that flow pattern the stronger the system the more North it's going to PO possibly go that's the orange area we're watching this is next weekend Saturday Sunday we could have them get getting close and then you know I mean so there's still quite a few ensembles suggesting you know possibility of this thing doing something um here's the Canadian kind of all over the place some other models here we're going to look at the the UK and the kma are the same they're off and on they're just they're just there's nothing that you know either weak West or develops it and pulls it to the north um but let's zoom in super close to these ensembles and show you kind of what's going on with the Euro so even though the euro this is where it's a good good example to look at um how operational models don't always follow their their ensembles and you know as we go into next week um you know there's 51 members there's only you know 10 to 15 possibly showing development but important thing to note is that if we did get development there's a good likelihood of this thing turning and doing the classic turn um farther Goes West the more uh you get on the edge of the seat on if that turn is going to happen and pull more North so this is just you know worst case scenario here obviously these are your most latest European ensembles and this would be uh you know 953 49 you can tell considering that we could see something develop you know very little land over Cuba but NAC is not believing we're going to see much development the next week that's why they lowered it to 40% but I you know again we're seeing models that are showing um that possibility even sooner so yeah that's the latest on that I mean I mean heck let's look at the latest uh G um six z um GFS ensembles here and I suspect they're going to be all over the place like usual yeah there's not a lot of them actually turns it a little bit oh let's look at the O Oz's I didn't look at these overnight probably a lot more than we just saw with the 6z seems like that's the trend lot of spaghetti so yeah welcome to September um yeah so that's about it um Jesse rice yeah something to watch not ignore you know I guess we're really no no different than we were yesterday um The Blob by Bahamas isn't anything but it's still interesting I'm going to pull it up right there leave it right there for now um yeah we just don't we just don't have I'm very intrigued put it to you that way there is some sheer I was looking at almost like a they call it a Tut like a tropical trough middle level trough but H it's so hard to predict those um long range but that's that you know um yeah so oh my God you know what wind speeds a 956 well that's borderline cat 3 little bit of dust Jesse Good Question um that's definitely slowing down quite a bit a lot actually um here's there is a little bit actually but once we get into next third and fourth um it almost goes up so this would be the fifth of next week this would be the six of next week but very little compared to what we saw a month ago this is the eighth there's always a little bit when you come off Africa but that's a lot different than what it looked like let's go back in the 20th let's say you know there's that's what it kind of looked like just a random 10 days ago I just happen to pick one day that's what it looked like and then here's where we're going so a lot less not so much a fact not so much a factor John Sullivan Tampa yeah we're watching man Rick Barrett great question that's kind of what I was looking at uh frontal lines steer these things um the fact that this thing is so weak going west it's going to miss miss this initial one um so it doesn't look like it's going to get affected in the short term by this one which is uh Tuesday the front kind of weekends here on Friday and Saturday the following week so there's nothing big coming so that'll support a general pole possibly uh and it looks like high pressure is going to be building back in driving it you know that direction as our high builds back in so weak low weak front showing up the end of next week um we didn't get to use these yesterday but here's your basic look here let's look at um next week on the Euro and you can see um uh there is a weak low this is the next Friday this is that frontal line showing Blues are low pressure there's our high going to be pushing back wrapping back around the Euro isn't very strong so it's not pulling our system to the north if this was strong it would be following likely this area right here um and then there's our high building back in um and because this is weaker West this High builds quicker blocks it and shoves it more West so you know slows down misses that door opening and it's weak too so there's still a gap if this thing was strong but euro is not showing it strong but the high is building back in and there's no strong fronts after that uh let's look at uh you know the latest uh let's look at yesterday's 12z oh he didn't have it on there so that's too far away let's look at the latest GFS now the GFS is showing you a little different scenario um this is next Sunday there's our system now remember Sunday here could mean Sunday here or Sunday here so this is kind of the time frame you're looking at a Sunday because it's turning but this is a week from Sunday uh there's our weak low that it's reacting to there's our high building back in uh that's kind of a path so a stronger system is going to follow that path to the north and there's our high blocking that's going to wrap back around and uh pretty much guarantee some sort of a push West a little bit uh but you know it's all if this thing develops and when it develops um even the Canadians got a similar setup as far as steering goes but it doesn't really develop it on this run but it is showing weak uh frontal line action here here the the icon doesn't show upper level winds that very well but still good good representation here about next Friday here we got a strong High Strong high possible door opening but it has to be strong and developed by then if it's weak it likely continues West so really bottom line how fast it develops and man I just can't believe it's not going to develop because of these water temperatures in the year you know we'll see we'll see but um the water temps are just absolutely smoking ocean heat content wise in the Caribbean so we saw Barrel go to a five when none of the models showed it so I'm a little skeptical this thing isn't going to try to get going if it develops some sort of a lower level circulation which is trying um it's just a big old Blobby mess right now you can see it multiple but it it's it's it's that's what they do they take their time they have to get past get out out of you know in that inter Tropics Convergence Zone we talked so much about about two weeks ago it was very IL defined a couple weeks ago it was coming off too high uh now it's starting to set back up low again which will give our systems a lot better chance to try to uh develop um these winds actually sometimes favor and get help things get going so that's that um and we just sit back and wait um is there inside a raid develop but Steve Smith nope you just have to let Mother Nature do her thing um you know we don't have spaghetti models yet so we don't have any really good high you know I mean every Mo every model has shown it intensify and then the next run they haven't so it's it's it's a 5050 game right now cheers yeah Morin hates to wait well these Long trck Systems have been the theme this season we watch barl forever we watch Debbie forever we watch Ernesto forever that's why the ace is almost the record Ace if you follow Ace numbers accumulated energy believe it or not we're like a head we're like record right now as far as this part of the season I think or just maybe maybe the season itself but that's just the amount of days of accumulated energy but I know everybody wants to see n numbers and not ace um so again the golf's tricky golf's going to be kind of tricky to watch um there is some weak for I was surprised to see that there's some weak foric in the golf um I didn't know notice this earlier but there's a little 850 there and there's a little 500 right here that's interesting lot of win she not tremendous amount I thought say it's a lot but really not a lot of win here wow well I'm saying it sneaky homegrown systems you know I got a Bay news9 Golf uh pressure map down here somewhere golf pressures and dropping a little bit 1012 Wow have to watch that 101 12 little lower pressures well you know let's see what the old future um hrr looks like sometimes they pick up these these little mesal skill um systems sometimes get picked up a lot better on the hrr sometimes a little bit of spin see that little spin up to New Orleans that's the next 48 hours right there that a little spin see a little spin right there that's tomorrow huh anyway I do not want to post that because oh my God posting ghost yeah Michelle you're in ukan 100% you're going to want to watch this thing cuz if it takes its time to develop that high pressure builds back in and shoves it West but anyway post it post it post it hey Jerry thanks yeah consistency I'm feeling Mike is looking to buy a Ram Dodge oh was that was that an ad what was that what page was that on I'm not looking at buy a ram but I might have been looking up my charger uh no well Jeep Dodge Jeep Emily's got a Jeep what do you think Bobby oh on tidbits now it's Adobe I was downloading a p PDF today apparently Google ads can tell a lot about a person sometimes you know yeah kitchen what's up yeah I hope everybody has a great Labor Day Weekend by the way it's a holiday um but shelle you cool with Monday I assume hey Greg mcgomery what's up buddy TR Tropics tracking Greg mcgomery Mike Soul yeah not a big difference e Ian what's up Budd there's still some models going smack dab towards Jamaica so doesn't rain okay Odo hey okay step yeah we should be good the only thing that's tricky is that golf I'm telling you I might have to post on that oh she's got a gladiator James it's actually her and Sarah's Sarah will never have a vehicle so we kind of made it a two for one Sarah thinks it's hers and Emily's but she can't drive but they go in it's theirs they're in it all the time they went out Beach watching last night all right but I got to cut it short everybody we're going to go blend some Hops at tbbc for ABC all right so I'll be doing a lot of posting later today just stay tuned for that keep my eye on it uh don't turn your back on this one it's got that weird feeling possibility you know we'll see uh but as of now there ain't nothing to worry about NHC lower chances okay they're the they're the boss so uh Sans is in Jamaica I would be watching this very close in Jamaica okay there's some models showing this thing really getting going once it crosses into the Caribbean so timing would be middle of next week for y'all okay Loren North Carolina looks fine so one day we'll be talking Tropics for the Carolinas so just not this weekend all right everybody thanks for tuning in as always we'll go a little longer next time I promise but I got to hit the road all right so we'll see you later alligator have a great weekend