Waiting for the Apocalypse: Have Iran/Hezbollah Gotten Cold Feet? | Israel Undiplomatic

Preparing for battle [Music] hi I'm Mark regiv and I'm Ruthie Bloom welcome to another episode of Israel and diplomatic and please like And subscribe to this podcast and to jnst TV and to jns.org Ruthie it's been a week since we last got together and a lot has happened how would you summarize the week that has passed I would say that not a lot has happened actually a lot is supposed to be happening that has not happened okay um Iran and kisah had the whole uh the whole country uh doing two things one joking about preparing for you know Armageddon and the other sort of half preparing for it in the sense that people are buying supplies or batteries whatever hang on hang on hang on hang on I mean I live in this country too and I agree with the joking and the mocking and the black humor that's for a Israel and that's part of our resilience but I'm not sure I saw Panic did you actually see Panic no no no I didn't see Panic I'll tell you I didn't see panic because after the first couple of nights when there was all these warnings and people were wondering what's going to happen and again there were lots of rockets and uh and drones in the north and theth South but in the center where there was this fear that it was going to be we were going to be blitzed it didn't happen and once it didn't happen it was like okay I ate all the tuna fish in my uh my stock so what do I go buy some more but but I don't understand withy you said you were perturbed about the situation very but you know we didn't have a massive retaliation so far not from kis or from IR we shouldn't have waited to retaliate or for them to retaliate I hate that word they launched a vicious war on us we don't need to retaliate we need to beat them we need to destroy balik we're destroying Hamas we need to uh we need to bomb Iran we need stop Ry because you when you say we need we need the government of Israel the Prime Minister the Minister of Defense the Army Chief of Staff have articulated as part of our policy yeah our goals in this war is to destroy hamas's military machine in Gaza and to destroy its political control over the Gaz strip and as well as getting the hostages out they are the goals articulated by the Israeli leadership for this war no one except for you until now has actually said the goal of this war should be destroying hisbah that is to significantly expand what has been said by the Israeli leadership we the Israeli leadership has What are Israel’s goals? said we want we can't go back to October 6th in the north we can't have hisb on the border eyeballing the Israelis who live on the border who are fearing in October 7th type attack withas storming across the border and trying to kill Israeli citizens like happened in the communities around Gaza but no one has articulated what you've just said is that hisbah has to be destroyed my understanding of the goal is to push kisah back from the B I'm aware that nobody has articulated it I'm talking about what I think we need to do and if we don't then the best we can hope for which is bogus is to have kisah move a few kilometers Inward and then no Israeli who lives in the North will go back home because they won't trust it and rightly they won't trust it and what we need to do we should have already been bombing Beirut in my opinion now it is possible that the reason this hasn't been articulated there are a few reasons it could be one could be we don't have the arms we don't have the Manpower and we don't have uh we're not actually capable of doing that now I wouldn't want to say that and I certainly wouldn't want to tell the enemy that but I've heard people I really trust uh former military people who say yes we do have the capability that's one the other is we have seen we saw in October 7th that that deterrence in this particular Way by saying you know every once in a while we have a flare up we deal with it and then we have a ceasefire that doesn't fly anymore and Iran got into the act in April by directly launching missiles and drones at Israel and they were all intercepted because Washington intervene and said yeah pull a little you know do a little uh put on a show we'll intercept it and then you're done and then but you know what we can't be done is attacking us all the time and I'm sorry just because it isn't in Tel Aviv do you think those people are not Israelis the people in Matula and in in kirona they're not Israelis they're not as they don't equal people who live in Tel Aviv yes they do of course they do but I want to say to you as as someone who was an Israeli soldier in the Infantry following the first Lebanon war I spent a significant amount of time in in Lebanon and going in and out of Lebanon in the early ' 80s and then I was the spokesman for the government at the time of the second Lebanon war and I think policy goals that are articulated by Israeli leadership have to be realistic and I think the assumption is Gaza is small Gaza we can actually go in there and take out Hamas and destroy their military machine and end their political role but I think when we look at Lebanon uh there was a attempt in 1982 to try to change Lebanese politics uh and it didn't turn out well for Israel no it didn't and and and I think the assumption is in Lebanon that they'd be fighting in Lebanon and in the end there will be an arrangement maybe better than the current status quo but there'll be an arrangement and if you can reach that Arrangement or something close to it without having to have Beirut destroyed and missiles fall on Tel Aviv surely that's a preferable outcome and that's what surely no no no I I totally disagree because I I'll say you you say it's not a good outcome it's not a good outcome if we end up with some piece of paper after a lot of people were killed no that's a terrible outcome but what we should have done in my opinion after these last assassinations one of which we did not take credit for which is fine but whatever are are assassinating a lot of top military Kamas andah leaders is we shouldn't have lost the momentum we lost momentum by saying okay now we're waiting for Iran to attack and we are building up our defenses we're ready to defend and we're ready to attack if need be and uh America moved warships in defense defense defense we have to be on the offense this is the Middle East they don't take us seriously they have seen us as weak they see the Israeli public um you know uh some some of the Israeli public demonstrating just get the hostages back and let's end the war and end the war now we're coming close to finishing the war in Gaza but the thing is that we can't say well okay we did for the last 10 months we have said okay we got to take care of Hamas and then we'll deal with the north but as you see all that is doing is getting us more drones more Rockets the is dangerous we cannot just sit back and wait and say oh now it turns out Iran might not be attacking too bad I hope and what the other thing I'm hoping is that all this quiet before the storm is precisely because Israel does have plans and they are ready we not they we are ready to use them and do something very major simultaneously in Iran and in Lebanon so I'm sure we have plans Going on the offensive I'm sure we have operational plans I'm sure we have the capability to the question is it smart is it clever to preempt and this goes back to things that uh you're familiar with goes back to the Cold War you know people say well the Russians going do a sneak attack any day let's preempt right let's hit all their targets in in Russia first and deny them the ability to to attack us and in retrospect the Cold War ended in a different way and in a more peaceful way and so the the whole idea that you have a threat and therefore eliminate the threat sometimes you have to manage you have to The Six Day War no use the Six Day War as an example Russia and the United States I'm sorry there were not missiles flying into New York City but the goal in The Six Day War was not to destroy Egypt the idea was to destroy the Egyptian forces based in sin ready to attack us that was that's preemption andah is Iran's Army that happens to have ins sconed itself are you Ser you seriously believe I'm asking you a tough question that we have the right to do it that his are terrible you don't have to convince me of either of course we have the right to do it and of course kisar is terrible and it's a threat and so forth but do you believe that it's a rational policy goal to say we will destroy completely and Lebanon and if the answer to that question is negative as I believe it is then you're going to have to come out of this with some sort of arrangement and that Arrangement will be better for Israel and if you can achieve such an arrangement before going and having missiles fall on Tel Aviv it's surely preferable you have to restore deterrence we have not restored the deterrence we didn't even have and we thought we did as October 7th showed up and I'll tell you we here's the thing we spend and we have even spent since October 7th worrying about legitimacy which I would like to say with air quotes we said 10 years ago in the war in Gaza in 2014 we said okay it ended with a ceasefire and an agreement and even nany has said he knew back then and others have said this other politicians and other generals have said we knew at the time we should have finished the job then but we couldn't have and we couldn't have because we wouldn't have had legitimacy at home or abroad now the only thing if the only thing that gives us legitimacy is 1,200 mutilated dead raped burned Israelis and another 250 the abducted ones if that buys you legitimacy which we saw didn't actually buy us legitimacy now we're accused of starving Gaza lies all blood lials we it we didn't even get legitimacy the point is this we have to worry more about Jewish lives Israeli not just Jewish lives Israeli lives all the Israelis that means Muslim Israelis Christian Israelis and Jewish Israelis we have to worry more about those lives than about currying favor and legitimacy yes too bad you know something if we bomb we started bombing Beirut yes well maybe kah maybe the Lebanese would kickb out of their Parliament maybe the point is enough with it we don't have deterrence now so I disagree with that strongly I think it was the defense minister of Israel said yesterday he said ifah you know strikes and we respond they Beirut could look like uh Gaza does today and I think the Israeli action in Deterrence Gaza where we've seen a heavy toll Hamas has been hit hard its leadership has been taken out uh its military machine is being dismantled as you yourself said we're very close to Victory I think Israeli operations in Gaza are crucial not just in the goal of destroying Kamas which as you say moving ahead full speed but it's also crucial that enemies see what we will do and what we're capable of doing if they attack us and kill our people I believe I see it Mark I've heard our defense minister say that I know he's threatening watch out and we'll turn Beirut into Rubble I'll believe it when I see it but I'll tell you one thing yes they see what's happening in Gaza but they also see what w how Washington is responding to what's happening in Gaza and how Europe is responding and how the UN is responding and how the international criminal court is responding you think that doesn't bolster them and Iran is nervous Iran is mainly worried about its nuclear program that it's worried about okay so again I'm not even saying you have to kill a lot of people what about uh uh tackling we need to be not losing the momentum go momentum going after more facilities going after like we did in Yemen that what we did in Port of Yemen was actually quite uh uh quite important because it sent a clear message and I agree it sent a clear message what do you do if you send a missile and you kill our people and I think that augments it adds to the message that comes out of Gaza to all of Israel's enemies that we will defend ourselves with commitment with energy and decisively if we need to to say I would argue we need to what mean if we need to hold on a second if we need to let me ask you something if the drone that killed a man in Tel Aviv the the uh the houthi drone that killed a man in Tel Aviv let's say it hadn't killed him we should we should have and and if it and if let's say the missile that killed 12 children in majs hadn't killed anybody we have been waiting all these months there have been many many deadly assaults and by the grace of God by Miracle not more people were killed we have to treat every one of those launches as though that amount of people can I tell you it's a bit like it's a bit like and I think we've discussed this in the past it's a bit about Roosevelt December 1941 a day that lives in infiny Roosevelt wanted to get into the second world war on the side of the Allies but he didn't have the internal legitimacy to make the effort until PE Harbor came along and I think it's the same in Israel that a war with Lebanon will a major price both for the home command for for for Israeli civilians will be on the receiving end ofb rockets and for the Israeli soldiers who crossed the border in the north and have to fight now if we have to do it we have to do it once again the but once again when the fighting with Lebanon is over the idea that somehow kisah will be dismantled and disarmed and that Israel will control all of Lebanon the way we control Gaza I think that's a myth in the end there will have to be an arrangement an arrangement you've said you don't need a useless piece of paper I agree with that you need an arrangement which Israel will enforce and we it's up to us it's it's it's uh if we don't enforce it it will be eradicated like we saw with 1701 the UN resolution that saidah shouldn't be in any part you know why because unifil was supposed to enforce and the known Un Peace Israel has to be the policeman for all of these things and when you say no don't it's not realistic well we're not going to Destroyah and then occupy uh Lebanon how about you also don't believe it's real wait a second but how about how about we occupy our own uh we occupy Israel before you talk about that we have been evacu we are evacuating we are making our borders we've shrunken our borders and everybody sees it and everybody knows it our country is in really not good shape in that respect so the countries was hit hard on on October 7th obviously since and before that you're using America as an example and Pearl Harbor we live with those Pearl Harbors America had 911 when that happened we were going through the second in with suicide bombings all over and I remember when 911 happened I remember saying good now they'll see what we're going through but let me hang hang on let me just correct you you didn't say good at all those Americans were killed you said good maybe that the Americans will understand what Israel's going through first of all don't put words in my mouth all right but it could have been interpreted that by of all it could have been interpreted that way by one of our listeners second of all let me tell you something the only people who seem to want dead bodies are the side that say we don't have legitimacy unless they exist so don't tell me that I'm the one saying it was good there were dead bodies it's my my political foes are always hoping for dead bodies cuz otherwise there's no legitimacy and I've been hearing this for decades you you talk about something Americans do not live like that now Americans live with a lot of crime and you know probably terrorism is going to be hitting them inside and everything but it's a huge country it's huge now we are a tiny country we live with that threat with pearl harbors and 911s all the time so how can you even compare that but we have to still I don't I don't in any way diminish the threats Israel faces not from Iran not from kisah not from theis not from the Shia militias in Iraq and Syria which have been firing rockets on us also every now and then and obviously we have serious search the question is how do we best navigate what it is a very complex and challenging strategic situation and I would argue you have to be strong and you have to be smart and that's the winning combination be smart and strong no shooting from the hip I would say the following once again and I think shooting from the hip I think the waiting and waiting I think the Prime Minister has said it this way he has said we will have a new situation security situation in South Lebanon it will either happen by military means or it will happen by diplomatic means he said that he prefers it will happen by diplomatic means I agree with him if it's possible and I also agree with you that it shouldn't be an empty piece of of paper Israel will have to enforce it it's it it'll be up to us that if if there's an agreement that hisbah can't be south of a certain point and his moves South we have to be ready to shoot to kill I agree we can't stand for infringements of Arrangements but if anyway there's going to be an arrangement right I say if it's possible to achieve that same Arrangement without a major war that is preferable if we need to fight we will fight it depends what a major war is for what the goal of the major war is for and right now you're right we have a world situation thank you very much to the Biden Administration may I say but we have a world situation not just in the Middle East there's China there's Russia we've got a situation that is really headed for a World War if but but sometimes they're necessary World War II was necessary so to say no and if we can do things by diplomatic means you know something we've tried that over and over and over and let me tell you something else the horror the shock and horror that that leftwing Israelis and of course outside of Israel say when when anyone in Israel suggests that we're going to have to reoccupy Gaza and turn it actually into make it bloom again unlike the animals who took it over the Hamas terrorists who took it over and turned it into a killing machine and the horror that oh my goodness and take it over and the word occupy becomes such a bad word we Gaza goals would save Gaza by doing that we wouldn't hurt it and I you know we we have to stop with the pre- October 7th mind frame that got us into this situation in the first place so uh I agree with the Prime Minister when he said in Congress right that we have no no goal to resettle Gaza as I mean that was implied in what you just said he said it he said we will have to have in the foreseeable future we'll have to have overriding security control but he'd like to see the Palestinians of Gaza rule themselves and all we ask is that they have a regime a government that doesn't attack Israel that doesn't call for resols Destruction and those goals are doable because they are minimalist goals once again they not doable if if your goal is to have Palestinians rule themselves yes if they are if they uh are reborn or the new new babies born go through a different education system different did that he said demilitarization and deradicalization but de demilitarization is one thing which by the way we haven't even managed to do in Judea and Samaria very well demilitarization we got a mini Gaza going on in Janine over there but let's and we are dealing with it we are thank God we're dealing with it but we let it get so bad I think if you look for Perfect Solutions no no the I'm not talking about perfect okay none of what I'm saying has anything to do with perfect deradicalization not over it's a process corre so okay and I know that nany said that and I think he probably even means it or believes it himself okay yes I'm not in agreement with him on that about settling resettling Gaza I didn't think we should have withdrawn from Gaza the that's a different issue okay let's we're talking about the future but der I alization under these conditions where you have especially when you have now uh talk of well the Palestinian Authority or a revitalized Palestinian Authority could rule Gaza or some kind of Palestinian entity that is nonsense how many times do we have to hear it I would trust equally nonsense though is the idea that Israeli soldiers should be patrolling the streets of Gaza making sure that people don't park their cars illegally and uh beat beat their wives and so for Israelis shouldn't have to do in other words you need some sort of autonomous civilian Rule and that's what Netanyahu wants right but you know that is you talk about real you say realism yeah that's not realistic so we yes are going to have to have our soldiers policing not police I'm not talking about taking out the garbage yeah first of all as we saw this week uh the tunnels in the Philadelphia corridor exposed we know that Egypt has been enabling weapons and concrete and all that and we know that we are in big trouble if we don't keep control of that whole area and that's good because nany has been extremely firm on that point and good for him the point though is that that's not enough and Gaza is not going to when you talk about well we need you know we're not going to be their dog catchers and their garbage and all that right but up until now even that stuff you the only the only organizations there that took care of Civil Society were also terrorists and as the schools they're also it's a bit like Japan after the destruction they they experienced at the end of the second World War and the same with Germany where people understood look what Hitler bought upon us right it it took a lot of you know at the beginning when Hitler was winning they were all for him yeah but when Hitler bought destruction upon Germany the German people angry about it we angry and so it's possible I'm not saying definitely but I think there's a possibility that when this is over and Hamas as a military machine and as a political government of Gaza is no more then you will see Palestinians not because they like us but but they see what hamas's path brought them that they will be a chance for something new to okay you know why I don't uh believe that so much because the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria who have witnessed what is going on in Gaza they have seen and they see what Israel has done and they see what Israel is doing with them they all support Hamas they even after October 7th they still all support Kama the October 7th Massacre and would vote tomorrow for Kamas and in Gaza the trouble is that other than very little children most of the civilians there yes I will concede that they've been brainwashed they weren't born that way they've been brainwashed but it's they've been very successfully brainwashed these are people who joined in on beating up anytime a hostage was taken in on October 7th was brought into Gaza they all civilians beat them up when hostages were released they were throwing rocks at the Red Cross uh Vans taking them back to uh the border so that they could return to Israel you do you you are living in fantasy land if you can imagine that okay now what I do think is if that we were able to rescue the hostages and carry cir's head on a spike throughout Gaza March it around H and warn everybody else that that's their fate they might be terrified into switching uh into I wouldn't say der radicalizing but realizing that they're done maybe but Realism Vs. Idealism you know the chances of that happening are pretty slim but it's not going to happen because I don't think Israel decapitates people puts them on a spike and walks around the street with their head which is why we are in a disadvantage in the Middle East Mark so I think it's fantasy land to talk about that sort of solution I think it's fantasy land to use your word to talk about destroying completely kis in Lebanon I think it is not fantasy land to talk about winning the war in Gaza and reaching a new situation in Lebanon where Israelis can return to the northern border I think it's important that goals be realistic and be attainable you create great uh problems when you when you present a goal that is impossible to be realized and and once again we have to what happens to a goal that is realistic and you realize it and all it does is enable your enemy to rearm and rebuild tunnels but once again but that that first of all in Gaz of the goal is destroy Kamas and they won't be in charge afterwards and that we continue for the subal future with a security envelope that prevents them from rearming and reemerging that's the goal in Gaza in Lebanon different place different country different sort of provocation different sort of threat and the the head of the snake but you've got to be realistic we I'm of the generation that remembers the war in ' 82 more people remember the war in 2006 Lebanon is a more complicated Catal of fish and policy has to be relevant to the area you're dealing with it if you just block your eyes and say it's all the same no it's not all the same that is fantasy land what is possible in Gaza is not necessarily possible in Lebanon what is possible in Lebanon I want to say something about former prime minister Almer who led Israel in the 2006 War right he was much criticized for that war including by yourself that Israel acted in a way that wasn't sensible and we shot from the hip and then we didn't think things through and we no we weren't prepared it's because decimated our says to his defense I believe correctly he says yes but following the 2006 War we had close to two decades of relative peace in the north now maybe in the very violent and Middle East and the threats that Israel faces if you can give me two decades of Peace how do the how do Jewish people say on satanite danu it's enough maybe if we come out of this because in that two decades other things can happen there can be political change in Iran there can be political change in Lebanon all sorts of things if you look for if you look let me finish the point Ry if you look for Perfect Solutions today or complete Solutions today you're not going to find them it can be a dangerous path way towards uh uh mistakes if you manage to find workable Solutions today you allow history to bring in other changes in the future we saw that a mere few years ago with the Abraham Accords we saw that the Trump Administration starved Iran of all its billions and it was it was going broke and that put a damper in its nuclear program and in its terrorist proxies yes that was realistic all right we were on the way to that and then Iran got appeased and by the way the peace and quiet that we have gotten since 2006 in Lebanon it was a lie because in those years we enabled hisbah to amass that such an army and such an Arsenal and by the way October 7th also so the question again I repeat maybe it's not realistic but how many people have to be slaughtered in order for us to say uhoh maybe our policy hasn't been so great I'd like to I'd like to finish optimistically with your permission wary let's say you have a less than perfect but a workable solution in Lebanon you might need to have more violence more conflict to get there but not a perfect solution which is unattainable but you have a solution that gives you two decades of Peace if in the meantime during those two decades the Sodis make peace with Israel other Arab and Muslim countries follow you change the political dynamic in the region that can affect other issues too in other words if you've buying time you can also use that time effectively I agree everything depends on Israel being strong everything depends on Israel making sure that our people are safe and we have to do that but once again I'm the of the as you know of the realist school and I believe we have to do what is possible what is attainable and not have goals that are pie in the sky and I know you disagree with me uh well I'll just end by saying maybe that means that uh fantasy is the new realism and on that on that cheerful note uh I look forward to speaking to you again next week exactly and again please like And subscribe to jns.org JNS TV and to Israel and diplomatic of course [Music]