can Democrats slip Florida from red to blue in November it's unclear but polls suggests a tightening race at the presidential and Senate level a recent morning consult poll shows vice president kamla Harris trailing former president Donald Trump by only two points in the state and a poll from the hill in emberson college shows former congresswoman Debbie mccarel Powell trailing incumbent Florida Senator Rick scottt by one point however most other polls have shown more of a four to fiveo gap between mccarel Powell and Scott the latest poll numbers seem to be reflective of the narrowness of trump and Scotts past Statewide wins Trump won Florida by about three points in 2020 and by one point in 2016 meanwhile Scott won his 2018 Senate race by less than a point and his two gubernatorial victories by less than two points Democrats argue that two ballot measures in the state one to enshrine abortion rights known as Amendment 4 and one to Legal ized recreational marijuana known as amendment 3 will also Drive turnout for them in a presidential year and Republicans acknowledge that abortion and marijuana ballot measures will jolt turn out in November but they repeatedly point to Florida voters history of backing liberal ballot measures while voting for Republican officials both ballot measures need 60% support to be approved in November meaning support from Republican voters is essential for them to pass Republicans and Democrats say that the state's most populus County Miami Dade could ultimately decide the election in Florida the county was once seen as a reliable stronghold for Democrats but in recent years including during the 2022 midterm elections the county has flipped from Blue to red