Montana State vs New Mexico Prediction | Week 0 College Football Bets & Picks| August 24

Yesterday Recap hey guys welcome back to my Channel today we're going to be discussing the Montana State versus New Mexico game coming this Saturday for week zero of the college football season uh quickly before I start I'm going to go over my results from this past weekend uh so I did a couple preseason games I made YouTube videos for almost all of them uh and I posted them on my winnable which you can see the details below for my winnable page um we had Rams versus Chargers Rams plus 2 and a half they ended up winning that game by I think Four Points we had Cowboys versus Raiders preseason pick I had a Raiders first half minus three and a half we ended up losing that game but um as things F unfolded and as I predicted in in my YouTube video I thought the second half would be bad for the Raiders so I I sent out a cowboys live minus one and a half they ended up winning the game by 15 points and then to finish off the preseason I had Broncos minus 7 they ended up winning I think by like 20 points it was like 20 20 to2 maybe I can't remember and then I had a sleeper pick that I posted on my Instagram um where I bet the over props for both the kickers in the Rams Chargers game as well as steps STS and Bennett over like 180 yards so we got a 5x multiple on that play um if you're wondering what winnable is it's my uh betting service it it'll send my picks directly to your phone I offer a few different plans uh I have a free plan so pretty much everything that I make a YouTube video over I'm going to send via text so it's sometimes hard to keep up with YouTube so you can get my plays uh just sent directly to your phone every time and then every time you get a text there's going to be a YouTube video on that too I also offer uh a props package a pck package and then uh a a package that combines both of them in some states you know some states are bad about offering props some states are bad about offering betting so if you live in one of those States that's only good at offering one of those you can have a cheaper package if you just want the whole thing there's um this gives you a little bit of savings and then I'm going to do a$1 to $10,000 CH Challenge on my bet online account so that's not going to be all plays it's only going to be select plays um but I'll keep you up there here's my beted online account I have 100 uh dollar stacked up so I'm ready for the season so let's get into the Montana Reviewing Montana State v New Mexico State New Mexico game uh things to know obviously the spread is- 10 a half bet online has a spread at minus1 and then the over under is 53 and a half points so quickly before I start I am not going to act like I'm an expert on Montana State football because I'm not but I'm going to go over some things that I like about the game and that you should know for Montana State cuz I know everyone's excited for the college football season they're going to want to bet this game so don't bet it blindly just let me fill you in on some things so Montana state they're in the Big Sky Conference and FCS team uh they're the favorite to win the the conference they're expected to be the top offense in the Big Sky this year uh and they have been the top offense in the last two seasons they led the whole F FCS in Su play success rate and average yards per play with 7.88 yards per play they have the best offensive line in the conference and they're expected to have the best offensive line again this year they average 7.28 yards per carry last season and for comparison no other team in the FCS averaged over 6 and a half yards uh their quarterback uh helped a lot with that they have a strong Run game they have like a running back by committee but they also have a strong running quarterback with 2400 career rushing yards and 29 career rushing touchdowns so a lot of you see these good running teams you're like well they must not have a good passing team that's not the case with Montana State they aren't a one-dimensional team last year they ranked number four in all of the FCS with nine yards per attempt so things to know for New Mexico they're expected to finish second to last in the conference they have a firste coach he uh took a little bit of a break but he used to be a coach at Virginia and at BYU um Vegas has their season win total over under at at two wins so that's literally the second lowest win total odds out of 134 teams the only team they're ahead of is Louisiana Monroe who is over one and a half wins but it's at minus 185 odds so it's basically two so New Mexico is basically last in the entire FBS so um looking at their schedule it seems like and we can kind of go to their schedule I have it here looking at their schedule um it seems like so the wins that Vegas thinks they could have a chance on would be Utah state New Mexico state and Hawaii and probably somewhat are those are probably the somewhat winnable games and then I guess maybe Montana State um so the entire offensive line are Upper classman from the transfer portal uh they lost their leading rusher from last year uh their QB is Devin dampier who didn't play much last year but he still got six touch Downs with no pick so doesn't make a lot of mistakes and he seems capable of doing well so now that you know a little bit about each team here's my take on the game so we often hear these stories about bad programs that get a new coach and they have a new hope and he's going to turn them around and yes that happens frequently but they never do in the first game I think the way it's going to play out for New Mexico is they have all this false hope or they have all this hope they're going to get their ass kicked to by Arizona they're going to lose to Auburn they're going to lose to Fresno State and they're going to constantly be plus 30 plus 40 uh Point underdogs and then you're going to end up finding some value when they're 0 and5 versus New Mexico state or versus Air Force or versus Utah state they're going to be covering you know plus 20 spreads or plus 10 spreads against those other teams later in the season it's going to be one of those ones where they're like 0 and six but they finish the season like three and four or whatever um so another thing to know about them is the their defense was awful last year where they mostly struggled with run defense which as I said is where Montana State definitely excels at so they also only had eight Force turnovers last year and they only had 15 sacks on the whole year so let me repeat that over 12 games they only committed eight turnovers or they only forced eight turnovers out of 12 games they only had 15 sacks so you have Montana state they're averaging seven yards per carry and nine yards per pass attempt but then you have a team who doesn't commit turnovers they don't sack and then they also had 119 Flags last year for 1,76 yards of penalty yards last season so while THE PICK! they're letting Montana state run all over them and pass all over him they'll also be giving them yardage both on the offense and defense side of the ball I'm taking Montana State minus 10 unless the team total uh shows up I haven't seen it yet on my books which is BET online then I have just a bookie uh the team total should be around 34 points it might be 33 and a half might be 34 and a half I'm very comfortable taking the minus 10 but I like the idea of a proven offense that knows each other well playing a bad defense that doesn't know each other well and then I if I just take the team total I don't have to worry about New Mexico maybe surprising us with their offense um on that side of the ball so less less question marks if all I'm focusing on is the really good Montana State offense versus the really bad New Mexico defense so that's the play I'm making there and to kind of just go over that real quick we can go over I should have had this ready so New Mexico last year you see they give up 52 they give up 34 like I said I expect the uh or they gave up 31 I expect the team total to be around 34 points 33 points so they give up 35 to Wyoming they give up 52 they give up 34 give up 56 give up 42 uh give up 17 give up 44 so I I think they're giving up a lot of points and and then if you come to Montana State um they're getting 63 points 57 40 38 59 42 45 57 37 and 35 37 or no they only got seven against Montana and then 34 against North Dakota State so that tells me that um they can score and they can put up points and it's it's not new to them and so that's why I'm more comfortable taking the team total of Montana State but like I said I'm very comfortable taking the minus 10 so uh if you learned anything from today uh please put it in the comments if you're going to be telling me I I like to know if I'm helping people win money it makes me feel better um but good luck to your however you play it and at least get on my winnable uh like I said it's hard to keep up with YouTube sometimes sometimes it's better to just have a text into your phone so uh see you around