Kornacki breaks down polling as the race between Harris and Trump tightens

Published: Sep 09, 2024 Duration: 00:04:41 Category: News & Politics

Tags : MSNBC

Trending searches: steve kornacki

THINK, IS VERY MUCH AN OPEN QUESTION. AND PROBABLY, PERHAPS, THE SINGLE-MOST TELLING THING THAT COULD HAPPEN ON STAGE. >> GARRETT AND YAMICHE, WE THANK YOU BOTH SO MUCH FOR BEING WITH US. PART OF THE REASON THE STAKES TONIGHT ARE SO HIGH IS THAT POLLS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS INCREDIBLY TIGHT RACE, EVEN BEYOND THE NORMAL BATTLEGROUNDS. TAKE A LOOK AT THE LATEST MORNING CONSULT POLL, WHERE IT SHOWS TRUMP ONLY LEADING HARRIS BY TWO POINTS IN HIS HOME STATE OF FLORIDA, WHICH HE CARRIED IN 2016 AND 2022. I TALKED TO THE HEAD OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY THERE YESTERDAY. SHE REALLY THINKS IT'S WITHIN REACH. WE'LL SEE. BUT THIS IS WITHIN THE POLL'S MARGIN OF ERROR. NBC'S STEVE KORNACKI IS MANNING THE BIG BOARD AT MSNBC HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK. SO, STEVE, WHAT ELSE DO THE POLLS TELL US GOING INTO THE DEBATE TONIGHT? >> TAKE A LOOK HERE, CHRIS. FIRST, NATIONALLY, THIS IS THE AVERAGE OF ALL THE MAJOR NATIONAL POLLS THAT WE KEEP HERE. HARRIS, 47. TRUMP, 45, NATIONALLY. AND IN A COUPLE OF WAYS OF LOOKING AT IT. AGAIN, HARRIS, THIS IS BETTER FOR DEMOCRATS THAN WHEN JOE BIDEN WAS THE CANDIDATE. HE WAS TRAILING ALL YEAR. AND THIS IS BETTER FOR REPUBLICANS, BETTER FOR TRUMP THAN IN HIS TWO PREVIOUS PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS AT THIS POINT. HE WAS DOWN MUCH MORE IN 2020 AT THIS POINT AGAINST JOE BIDEN. HE WAS DOWN MORE AT THIS POINT IN 2016 AGAINST HILLARY CLINTON. AND WHAT HOVERS OVER ALL OF THIS, CHRIS, IS WHAT WE SAW IN 2016, HILLARY CLINTON, THE DEMOCRAT, WINS THE POPULAR VOTE, DONALD TRUMP WINS THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE, AND WHAT WE ALMOST SAW IN 2020 AGAIN WITH A DISCONNECT THERE. JOE BIDEN WINNING THE POPULAR VOTE HANDILY IN 2020, DONALD TRUMP COMING THIS CLOSE TO WINNING THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE. THE QUESTION FOR DEMOCRATS IS EVEN IF KAMALA HARRIS IS LEADING IN THE NATIONAL POLLING RIGHT NOW, IS THAT ENOUGH OF A BUFFER WHEN YOU GET DOWN TO THE STATES THAT ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO DECIDE THE PATH TO 270. THESE ARE WHAT WE CONSIDER THE CORE SEVEN BATTLEGROUND STATES. AND THESE ARE OUR AVERAGE OF THE POLLS IN THOSE STATES. THE HEADLINE, NO SURPRISE, IS THEY'RE EXTREMELY CLOSE HERE. A POINT AND A HALF IN ARIZONA, HALF A POINT IN GEORGIA, 1.7 IN NEVADA, A TIE IN NORTH CAROLINA. YOU DO SEE HARRIS IN WISCONSIN, WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE OF A CUSHION THERE IN THE AVERAGE THAN IN THE OTHER STATES, BUT THAT GETS TO THE OTHER QUESTION. THERE'S THE POPULAR VOTE, ELECTORAL COLLEGE DISCONNECT THAT WE SAW IN '16 AND '20, WITH THE QUESTION OF, DOES DONALD TRUMP HAVE A BIT OF AN ADVANTAGE IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE AGAIN. COULD HE WIN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE, WHILE LOSING THE POPULAR VOTE. THE OTHER ONE IS, THE POLLS IN THESE BATTLEGROUND STATES, WE SAW THEM MISS BADLY IN SOME PLACES, IN 2020. ALSO, 2016. AND THE PLACES WHERE THEY MISSED THE WORSE, WISCONSIN WAS THE BIGGEST MISS OF 2020. IT OVERSTATED DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT THE MOST. SAME THING HAPPENED IN 2016 FOR THAT MATTER. MICHIGAN WAS ANOTHER PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL MISS IN 2020. AGAIN, OVERSTATING DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT, UNDERSTATING TRUMP SUPPORT. IT'S THE POLLING MISSES THAT WE'VE SEEN THESE LAST TWO ELECTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN EVENLY SPREAD OUT. WE'RE NOT SEEING THE SAME MISS IN EVERY STATE. IT'S A LOT MORE GEOGRAPHICALLY, A LOT MORE DEMOGRAPHICALLY SPECIFIC. IT SEEMS IN THE LAST TWO ELECTIONS, YOU TALK ABOUT A BLUE COLLAR WHITE VOTERS, WHITE VOTERS WITHOUT TWO- OR FOUR-YEAR DEGREES, THAT'S BECOMING A TRUMP CONSTITUENCY, AND THE POLLING UNDERESTIMATED TRUMP'S SUPPORT FROM THAT DEMOGRAPHIC IN THOSE STATES. THEY HAVE SUCH HIGH POPULATIONS OF BLUE COLLAR WHITE VOTERS. THAT'S ANOTHER QUESTION. ARE WE SEEING THAT AGAIN. ARE THESE POLICY ESPECIALLY IN THESE STATES GOING TO OVERSTATE DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT AGAIN OR ARE WE GOING TO FIND OUT THERE'S A NEW TYPE OF POLLING, A NEW TYPE OF POLLING, MAYBE THEY'LL BE RIGHT, BUT THAT IS THE QUESTION WHEN YOU LOOK AT THESE NUMBERS. ALWAYS REMEMBER, WE SAW MISSES IN THOSE STATES THE LAST TIME AROUND. AND IN TERMS OF TONIGHT'S DEBATE, THE STAKES HERE, A LOT OF ATTENTION TO THIS ONE. "NEW YORK TIMES," SIENA POLL. MORE THAN A QUARTER OF VOTERS COMING INTO THIS DEBATE SAYING THEY WANT TO LEARN MORE ABOUT KAMALA HARRIS. THEY NEED TO. DONALD TRUMP MUCH MORE OF A KNOWN QUPT. AND THEN THAT'S QUESTION OF CHANGE VERSUS STATUS QUO. THIS "NEW YORK TIMES"/SIENA POLL, A MAJORITY SAY KAMALA HARRIS WOULD BE MORE OF THE SAME. SHE'S THE INCUMBENT VICE PRESIDENT IN AN POPULAR ADMINISTRATION. AND THE MAJORITY, 53% SAY THAT TRUMP REPRESENTS MAJOR CHANGE. FROM HARRIS' STANDPOINT, ALL OF

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