Trending searches: who is winning the election right now
what's going on everyone welcome back to the show
So today we're going to take a look at 538 and we are going to look at their polling averages and
then I will go over to the electoral map and we'll take a look and we'll see according to
538 who would win the presidential race kamla Harris or former president Trump so that's what
we're going to focus on in this video but first off if you guys can do me a favor please like the
video and if you find Value in this video and you want to see more videos like this please consider
subscribing to the channel okay so let's go right over to 538 and before we get started I have
to make one statement I know that there's some people that are saying that why didn't you talk
about Nate silver why didn't you talk about his prediction well I will talk about that okay
so I will talk about that in a future video he pretty much made his prediction the same day
or around the same time that Allan lickman made his prediction so I wanted to give them a little
bit of space but uh when you're were looking at Nate silver yes he was the founder of 538 he
now has his own he's doing his own thing his own U model he's using a different model now and
so we'll talk a little bit about that because he did predict that former president Trump would win
okay so he his prediction is a lot different than Alan liman's prediction and so it'll be up to you
to decide who you think is is more reliable but we will do a video on Nate silver okay let's go ahead
and get back to our information here on from 538 so we're going to look at all the states but first
off let's look at a national poll just to kind of get a better idea of where the momentum is going
who has the surge all of that right we talk about this uh when it comes to National polls National
polls do not decide elections however they let us know who has the wind at their back who has the
momentum so looking at this right now uh as of September 4th you have Harris in the lead plus
3.2% that is the national poll there you have Harris at 47 and you have Trump at 43.9 and
so looking at some of the latest polling we have the RMG research poll Harris at plus two we
have this outward poll with Harris at plus five we have let's see let's move down Emerson Emerson
College poll has Harris at plus4 morning consult has Harris at plus three so you see what's going
on here when we're talking about momentum we have Harris all of these polls the latest polls are
showing Harris favored and we have a few that are even and then you get down to the bottom here
and you have two polls for Trump okay or it's actually it's it's really one poll and this is a
republican funded poll okay important to note that but Trump plus two okay so let's go ahead and
look at some of the Battleground States because this is what is going to decide this election so
looking at some of the Battleground States we have Michigan here and we have Harris at plus two so
Harris is 46 6.6% Trump is 44.6% and looking at some of the polling we have this Patriot polling
showing Harris at plus one and then we have now I I read the comments like I told you and I do have
some people that are saying you're pronouncing tra traar it should be talgar okay so I'm going to say
it that way maybe I'll throw in a little British accent so talgar the Trafalgar group poll is even
then we have the CNN poll showing Harris at plus five okay so looking at Arizona we have Trump
favored at plus 0.5 and Trump is at 46% Harris is at 45.6% looking at some of the individual polling
we have the Patriot polling showing Trump at plus two we have an Insider Advantage poll showing even
and then we have the CNN poll showing Trump at plus five looking at Georgia Harris is favored
in Georgia plus 0.4% we have Harris at 46.4% Trump at 46.1% looking at some of the individual
polling we have Patriot polling showing Trump at plus one Insider Advantage poll showing Harris
at plus one and then the CNN poll showing Harris at plus one okay looking at Pennsylvania we have
Harris at plus 0.8 so Harris is at 46.3% Trump at 45.5% looking at some of the individual polling
here we have the Patriot polling showing Trump at plus one and the Trafalgar group poll showing
Trump at plus one actually plus two and then we have this Wick poll showing even okay looking at
Wisconsin we have Harris at plus 2.9% so Harris right now is 47.5% Trump is at 44.6% looking at
some of the individual polling we have Patriot polling showing Trump we have the trar group
poll showing Trump at + one and the CNN poll showing Harris at plus six now looking at North
Carolina we have Trump favored here at plus 0.6 we have Trump at 46.5% we have Harris at 46%
looking at some of the individual polling we have Patriot polling showing Trump at plus three
we have Insider Advantage showing Trump at plus one we have active vote showing even and then this
East Carolina University Center pole showing Trump at plus one now moving to Nevada we have Harris
ahead here at plus 0.6 we have Harris at 45.9% we have Trump at 45.3% and looking at some of
the individual polling we have Patriot polling showing even we have The Insider Advantage polling
uh showing Trump at plus one and then we have the CNN poll showing Harris at plus one and so this is
the latest polling in the Battleground States now let's go ahead and take a look at the electoral
map and then we'll talk about the Battleground States so first let's start off with the states
that are likely to vote for the Democratic candidate we have Washington we have California we
have Hawaii we have New York we have one District in Maine we have Vermont we have Connecticut we
have Delaware we have Maryland we have DC we have Massachusetts and we have Rhode Island now let's
take a look at the states that lean towards voting for The Democratic candidate we have Oregon we
have Colorado we have New Mexico we have Minnesota we have Illinois we have Virginia we have one
District in Nebraska we have two electoral votes in Maine we have New Hampshire and we have New
Jersey now let's take a look at the states that will likely vote for the Republican candidate we
have Idaho we have Montana we have Wyoming we have Utah we have Alaska we have North Dakota we have
South Dakota we have the rest of Nebraska we have Kansas we have Oklahoma we have Missouri we have
Arkansas we have Louisiana we have Mississippi we have Alabama we have Tennessee we have Kentucky
we have South Carolina we have West Virginia Indiana and one District in Maine now let's look
at the states that are leaning towards voting for The Republican candidate we have Iowa we have
Ohio we have Florida and we have Texas and so these are the states that we think are likely
or leaning towards voting for The Democratic candidate and the Republican candidate now let's
look at the Battleground States okay so looking at the Battleground States we're going to start
filling in this is according to 538 we're going to start filling in these boxes here so we know
Nevada will go to if if we had let's say take a snapshot so if we were taking a snapshot today
and we were looking at 538 and we were using the polling information from 538 this is what we would
see we would see NADA go for Harris we would see Arizona go for Trump we would see Georgia go
for Harris we would see North Carolina go for Trump we would see Pennsylvania go for Harris we
would see Michigan go for Harris and west son go for Harris and so that would bring us to a total
of Harris at 292 and Trump at 246 so obviously Harris would win if we're using 538 as a metric
now I just used Real Clear Politics as a metric and you saw the results there it would be the same
results but it wouldn't be as high of a number so we wouldn't be looking at 292 I can't remember
the exact number that we came up with with real clear politics but as I stated before Harris does
have the advantage and the reason that she has has the advantage in both of the polls that we're
looking at Harris has the advantage because she's winning the states that she needs to win when it
comes to Pennsylvania which is probably going to be a really hard fought there'll be a hardfought
campaign from both sides because it's very very close it's a tossup right now but Harris is strong
in a lot of these other states and if she can pull off Georgia or North Carolina then it's pretty
much going to be game over even if she can't pull off Pennsylvania but you usually what we've seen
in the past just looking at past history if Harris wins Wisconsin if Harris wins Michigan usually
these three states go together Pennsylvania goes with Michigan and Wisconsin and so if she can win
Wisconsin and Michigan and she's looking she's looking pretty good in both of those States then
she's probably going to win Pennsylvania as well because the the demographics are are are very
similar and so as I stated before Trump has he has an uphill battle if he wants to win he's
going to have to right now though the way that they're looking at things and we've talked about
this before but I want to continue talking about this and I know you guys don't watch every video
that I put out so maybe you didn't catch this but right now it looks like the Trump campaign they're
focused on Georgia North Carolina and Pennsylvania and they're looking at that 270 there to get them
over the top all you needs 270 that would give them 270 they don't have to win any of the other
states and we're basing this on where they're putting their money and so they're putting a lot
of money in Georgia they're putting a lot of money in Pennsylvania and I think they're riding on the
fact that they were able to win North Carolina in 2020 and so they're thinking they have some pretty
good support there and they'll be able to uh win North Carolina this year so we'll have to see if
that happens but right now Harris has the easiest pathway Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania that's
her easiest Pathway to Victory but then she also has other ways to win and she can win let's say
if she were to win Georgia if she wins Georgia then now she just needs to win one more state it
could be Nevada it could be Arizona it could be North Carolina but now she has a lot of different
options and when we look at the Trump campaign they don't have as many options to win if they
can't win those three states Georgia Pennsylvania and North Carolina so I just wanted to give you
a quick update when it comes to 538 they polling I showed you on the electoral map that Kay Harris
still has an advantage and if things continue to to be the same if we still see Harris surging a
little bit Trump is not surging at all okay so if Harris continues to Surge a little bit we'll have
to see next week because we will have the debate we'll see if that has any impact but uh if not if
it doesn't have a huge impact if we're looking at a debate where you really you don't really have
a clear winner then Harris is going to continue to Surge up a little bit and Trump is going to
stay the same or go down go there in the wrong direction a couple of videos back I showed you
guys favorable unfavorable when it comes to to KLA Harris her favorability is is rising and when it
comes to former president Trump his favorability is is stagnant it's not moving anywhere and it
hasn't moved anywhere for a very long time and so he's not gaining any new supporters whereas
kamla Harris is gaining new supporters so I want to know what you guys think so let me know
in the comments below if you like this video please give me a thumbs up please subscribe
for more and I'll talk to you the next one bye