There seems to be a universal agreement at this poin that this is a brand new presidential race, at least one that is significantly different than it was just 8 or 9 days ago But how different is it? What's actually changed? It's important to have a little humility here. I guess you could say. There's a lot we don't know. But here's what we do. Let's take a look at the map. What I'm showing you right now is the map from 2020, where President Biden was able to win in order to get more than 270 electoral v And you see kind of the critical battleground states here, the blue wall, the Pennsylvania, Michigan of Wisconsin, the Sunbelt states where he was able to flip Georgia, flipped the state of Ar hold on to states like Nevada. Obviously, that was critical to his victory and really undoing a lot of what Trump was able to do in his victory in Now, let's look at the where the race was before President Biden decided not to run for reelection. Now, based on where CNN projections of race ratings stood, Donald Trump was already electoral votes. That's how bad things were, at least in that moment for the Biden campaign. Now doesn't mean that's where things are going to end up but it's where the race was in that moment in time. You saw states like Georgia basically out of pl At that point, Arizona is still very much a swing state, democratically held over a series of elections. State of Nevada was leaning red. So two was the critical blue wall state of Michigan also lean In fact, when you talk to Biden campaign advisers, including in a public memo written by Co-Chairwoman Jen O'Malley Dillon, they acknow those Sunbelt states that Presid was able to make headway in in 2 They were pretty much all but out of reach. They said they could still be in but really, their focus was righ the blue wall. They needed to keep Michigan, they needed to keep Wisconsin, and they needed to keep the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania So where do things actually stan Right now? Well, if you think of where this the map was 9 or 10 days ago, and you talked to Democrats who made very clear what they needed more than anyth was to hold on to the state of Pennsylvania, Commonwealth Pennsylvania, to hold on to the state of Michi to hold on to the state of Wisco That is still clearly the most c pathway forward for Democrats. The blue wall, as it's known, is still something that the Harris campaign no long The Biden campaign, even though there's a lot of sam people, is very much targeting. However, what they say is differ at least both publicly and memos but also it privately. Is that what the Harris operatio is it opens up those pathways ba those Sunbelt states. In fact, they think North Carolina is very much a potential in plac State Democrats have come very close a couple of times, very, very population driven. Much of that population coming from black voters. Georgia now potentially back in play as well as Presiden Biden did in 2020. Now they say it's a possibility Nevada potentially back in play as well, particular if Latino voters, which were sagging heavily in the Biden coalition, start to come back in a major wa What about the state of Arizona also potentially back in play? Obviously, if you look at the numbers there if all of those went Democratic, it would obviously portend a very large win for the vice pr Now, that is not expected to hap at this point in time. But the reality is when you talk to Democrats, they say they now have multiple What do they mean by that? They mean it's not just about the blue wall. There's also sunbelt options as Options that they thought were off the table just 910 days Why do they think this? Well, it's interesting when you look at the numbers that we pulled up from the CNN assessor's poll just a few days ago, we actually went back to voters and asked them voters we'd already surveyed, just a few months ago and asked where they stood at this point i And this is what the Harris camp is keying on in this moment. The Biden coalition, young voters, black voters, suburban women voters, where are they now compared to where they were then Well, in April, June, Biden, in the 18 to 34 category, only 42% Donald Trump actually had a lead Now Harris has flipped that 47% What about black voters? Such a critical backbone of the Democratic coalition. Biden was at 70% to Trump's 23%, now Harris at 78 What about women voters, particularly suburban women vote critical, again, particularly in some of those blue wall states, if Biden's strength with older v starts to sag a little bit with Harris now on the ticket. Well, women voters, 50% to 45%, it was tied when Biden was still in the race There are numbers that are showi the Democratic coalition is comi That opens additional pathways beyond just the blue wall. What does it mean a victory for Vice President Harris that very much an open question. Talk to Democrats, they say still an underdog. But if you look at the dark blue compared to the lighter blue num certainly Democrats feel like now more than anything else, they at least have an opportunit