Can Boston College Upset Florida State? Keys to the Game & Predictions

will Boston College pull off the major upset on Monday against Florida State we have our predictions you are locked on Boston College your daily podcast on the Boston College Eagles part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day hello and welcome this is locked on Boston College your team every day today's episode is brought to you by 5- hour energy 5 Hour Energy fixes tired fast with zero sugar and a convenient portable size it's the perfect pickme up for getting stuff done go to 5our energy.com and use promo code locked on CFB to receive 20% off your order this offer is only valid until September 30th on one order and cannot be used without other promotions go to 5our energy.com again this is AJ black thank you for listening to lockon BC I hope you guys are all daily listeners at this point we're a daily Boston College podcast and we are we are there be the week one be has already begun it's going Full Steam on Saturday but we have to wait till Monday as BC plays FSU we have predictions and all sorts of good stuff today but as we always do before a game we are joined by Mitchell wolf of Eagle Insider Mitch how's it going it's going well just came in fresh off of oh can I can hear me can I can hear you yep you're good can you hear me yep okay all right we'll cut that um I'm doing good I just came in from watching North Dakota State go into the half leading Colorado so I'm super psyched about that so yeah we we love watching teams that deserve to lose lose and speaking of teams that deserve to lose or we like to watch lose let's talk about the Florida state seminal uh they are are they still ranked number 10 or do they move them down I can't imagine they still are um I just had the thing open on FanDuel Sportsbook make every moment more uh I will get back to you in a second uh I can't imagine they are still 10 that would be crazy uh they are 10th holy crap wow I can't believe it yeah I was going to say maybe they didn't even do the new poll yet but that's crazy after watching them uh get beaten up at in Dublin what are your takes on how what this NES team is like I think it's tough because you obviously think oh okay they can be beaten you know they're not they're probably not worthy of that top 10 ranking you know a lot of the hype in the offseason about them maybe it's not true but the problem is is now now they've been awoken uh this you know they're not going to be Sleepwalk you know if they had you know handled Georgia Tech with ease uh you know they might have sleep slept walked through BC I on caream remember who they play at I think there's they have a buy after BC so it doesn't even matter but they might just you know been like H you know it's BC like we had some miss them last year but we're back home like it won't be a big problem but now they're you know on high alert they're at Defcon one uh they're gonna be ready to like they're gonna be a lot more discipline on both sides of the ball because I think watching that game on especially in the trenches and on defense they just looked like they didn't care like their defensive line which is very highly touted is just getting blown off the ball like every play their linebackers defensive backs are taking terrible angles not tackling well on offense you know they just seemed out of sync which you know it's weak zero it they're you know in a different country it's it's fair for that you we have basically an entirely new set of skill position players including the quarterback so it's fair to expect some hiccups there but you know dju kind of just looked like he's looked for the last you know half decade or however long he's been playing football yeah it it definitely did not seem like a fired up team so why do you think they're going to be different this week though I just think like now it's kind of like they really okay we can't just Sleepwalk through opponents who are you know less talented than we are because I think you know we can quibble about it but I think most people would agree that BC is less talented from top to bottom than Florida State um I think you're G to see the the one thing that I didn't know going in the game last week was that Alex Atkins their offensive coordinator was suspended for the first three weeks for I think recruiting violations so he'll be suspended for this game too which I think is big but I do think like they're really going to focus on being disciplined executing assignments uh on the offensive line and on defense uh I think you're going to see them be more aggressive on defense they were super passive last week playing a lot of two high shells a lot of Middlefield open coverages uh um kind of letting Georgia Tech just run whatever they literally just run wherever they wanted um and they weren't that and they you know didn't Blitz much they just kind of relied on the talent of their defensive line which ultimately wasn't good enough so you know I think that they're going to change up some of those things uh I think they're going to really get on the players about uh run discipline and tackling and stuff so I think you're going to see a different Florida State team they're also be back home and you know playing a home game at Florida State is a completely different Universe than playing you know at a neutral site in Dublin yeah you don't have to fly across the country across the world to do that now you talked a little bit about dju you you Scout you watch lots of film talk about what kind of quarterback he is dju is a conundrum inside an enigma inside a contradiction because you know you look at him and you see you see Cam Newton basically you see this dude is huge and it was incredible I think I texted you this when the game started like he looked like he slim out he looked like a superhero like Jersey was just fit like fitting perfectly I was like God this this guy looks and that's he just looks the part but problem is like once things start flying he kind of really you know falls apart and I will say there were a few times especially I think it was their fin their final offensive drive he had some really nice throws over the middle and you know later in the game he finally gets into a rhythm gets used to his receivers but early in the game they really weren't letting him do a lot just having a lot of short throws the running backs and and then you know then they tried to push it a little more deep he would miss and there's a lot of reasons why like I think there are times where he's just not that accurate like that one pass to the running back in the the flat where the running back did drop it but because in a bad place and there were multiple times where and I saw this on a video that I I posted on our message board that these guys uh who over at the Florida State 247 site they went back and watched the film and they were saying yeah he's got to put the ball other places to give these receivers a better chance to create run after the catch opportunities which is a big that's with with even though for States receivers aren experienced they're very fast and they and very elusive so get give at least give them a chance to do something which he didn't really do and then the other thing is I think that when the defense really changes the picture after the snap if they present something before the snap and then rotate to a different coverage I think that really confuses him and I think that's why there were times where he was getting pressured he only got sacked once there was another one that got called back because of a face mask penalty where the right tackle just got beat off the ball but a lot of times where he was taking pressure and just standing in the pocket and it's weird because he is so big but he like he runs like a guy like that I would expect a guy of Thomas castalano's size to run and castalanos almost runs more like a guy like dju 64250 the way he's throwing his body around which is crazy so he's just a very difficult quarterback to Value because you you see him you see the good things you want it to be consistent but it's just not and I think they they'll get better this week you know another week of practice another kind of honing of the Playbook of what they want to do but and and the the good thing for him is that you know BC secondary has a lot of questions flor's offens line is very experienced I never thought they were really that good to begin with we'll see what BC's defensive line can do but and you know I would say DJ has had you know middling success against BC you know 2022 is great but that whole season was kind of messed up but in 2020 and 2021 you know BC did a pretty good job against him so you know we we'll have to see what happens because I think that he is really G to be the Catalyst for them because if BC can get him to struggle early and often then you know BC has a chance to pull another upset all right in a moment I want to talk to Mitch about what BC has to do to win and what Flor what will happen for Florida State to win we'll get into that in just a moment fuel up with factors no prep No Mess meals meet your Wellness goals thanks to the menu of Chef created meals with options like calorie smart Protein Plus and KO factors fresh never frozen meals are dietitian approved and ready to eat in just two minutes so no matter how busy you are you're always having time to enjoy nutritious great tasting meals make today the day you Kickstart a new healthy routine what are you waiting for crush your Wellness goal this August with dietitian approved meals and ingredients that you can trust enjoy effortless support for your lifestyle choose from six menu preferences to help you manage calories maximize protein intake avoid meat or simply eat well balanced head to mfactor meals.com lockon colle 50 and use code lockon College 50 to get 50% off your first box plus 20% off your next month that's code lockon College 50 at factor meals.com loock on50 to get 50% off 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and Mitch we're talking that Florida State game for all of you out there that have not done so already please like And subscribe to lockon BC and when you're done with this episode checked out on lock on acc I'm sure they're not giving Boston College any respect in this game because that's usually what they do so let's talk about this game a little bit more Mitch let's be a little bit positive I saw um some of the other BC podcasts out there there was one podcast I think they had four guys on it uh Eagles weekly or whatever and they had all four guys be picked BC to win I think and what does BC have to do to win this game so my biggest thing in this game for BC on I would say on offense is I think that they need to start very fast I think you need to throw the first punch it needs to land and you need to get Florida State in a position where they are chasing you because I think that's the that's the position that they are least comfortable in especially with how how dju performed last week how their offensive line couldn't really get much going in the run game again I think I think all that will be better but for BC to win there there's kind of Two Worlds here there's the world where BC can win and there's what I think is more realistic and what's going to happen and there the V diagram is pretty much two circles at this point so I think you need to hit on a lot of explosive plays ear often which is tough to do but you know Thomas cast does have that kind of penchant for those kind of plays so if you can reel off two quick scores and put Florida State behind the proverbial late ball I think that's huge because you you want dju to be pressing and try and hit that big play to bring them back in the game that also allows your pass rush to pin their ears back play play the pass more have to worry about stopping the run as much obviously that early in the game you have to do that but later in the game once you you know if you're up by two scores going into the fourth then they then all you need to do is pass rush you don't need to worry about the other team running the ball as much um so you need to be very aggressive and I think you need to be very aggressive on both sides the ball we saw how how aggressive Georgia Tech was with flying downhill getting in the gaps stopping the run and blitzing uh dju depending on where you ask or where you look at the stat on True Media I think they Blitz like 37% of the of his dropbacks which is high but nothing crazy but on Pro Football Focus they said he was Dro he was blit on 58% of his dropbacks which is crazy so you need to do that you need to deploy as many like simulated pressures uh crazy Blitz looks that you can be to confuse him and ideally you can get that turn that into a turnover short field keeps scoring because I think that in in how this game would go I think if you kind of play the traditional Underdog scenario where it's like oh you know hold on to the ball control the control possession control the clock I'm not sure I think that that honestly plays more into Florida State's hands because it means everything is open for both teams which I think is just going to kind of slow things down which last week's game was like one of the slowest in many years there was a stat or thing that I saw um I forget the guy's exact name on Twitter but this was the there were 14 possessions in this game which is the fewest in FBS game since 2020 and there were three of them in 2020 so that was kind of an outlier year but we're seeing that with these new clock rules and now with these inh helmet Communications teams are running down the clock the play clock more so there are less less time less possessions less scoring so I don't I don't think BC is well suited to a game where it's like a one possession game going into the final you know six minutes or whatever just because then it's very a coin flip game I think you need to be aggressive um throughout the entire game and you know if you get burned by Florida State's close to plays you end up losing then you know you kind of went out you went out swinging if you will I think that if they kind of just try to win these win this game on the margins with you know just extended drives I just don't think that's gonna work in their favor all right so what do you think Florida state has to do to win this game I mean I think I think they kind of just need to change up their entire defensive philosophy um play a lot more aggressive and you know I think they're going to do that because I think they kind of expected Hanes King to throw the ball around a little more because he did he was pretty good at that last year um and then they didn't they really just they just you know I think he only had like 16 dropbacks or something um against Florida State so I think you're going to see them load the Box a lot more uh they have they have very a very uh new linebacking core they only have one starter back from last year DJ Lundy who's kind of there Vinnie dep Palma um so they're rotating guys in I think you could also see less rotation of players I think there that just like stick with their guys a little more um so I think you're going to see them be a lot more aggressive with getting guys in the Box stop the run and then blitzing although they didn't really love to Blitz last year because of castalano's ability to get outside and create so maybe not as much that but they'll try to use that contain Rush that we talked about um on offense it's weird because I I do think like the initial game plan they had you know the first drive and the scripted drive at the begin of the game is always great um there's our friend Parker Fleming stats of War on Twitter he loves posting the meme where it's uh Patrick bman from American Psycho where he says very nice very nice now let's see the unscripted drives which is always the you know because everybody you know scripts out their first two drives like oh it would work perfectly and then once you just start calling plays off the sheet it's like all right well now we're screwing up a little bit so you know you saw some good flashes of that and so if you're Florida State you know again I think that that close game mentality favors you because of how experienced you are and as long as you don't make like and honestly like they didn't have like a ton of like killer mistakes the game just developed in such a weird way like um and I think some of the issues on were like play calling like some of Mike norvell's play calls especially on like second and long and third and long I was just like what what are we doing like the one right before the half where they ran that outside run and basally lost yardage down to kick a 59 yard field goal which they made which was insane you know I just that was weird so you know I think I think you're just going to see a lot of things be just the opposite of what because like okay last week it didn't work we're going to switch things up you know change our whole mentality and you know at the end of the day like I said they have a lot more Talent than BC does from top to bottom so you know as long as you don't make any killer mistakes and you can kind of control the pace of the game then they should be able to win this one all right in our final segment in just a moment Mitch and I are going to give our predictions will we pick Boston College to win have to wait will he talk about it in just a moment grab a 5-hour Energy Shot to stay alert to watch watch all your favorite games or if you stayed up late to see the enti intense overtime game take a 5-hour Energy Shot in the morning so you can get your day started I love five hour energies I use them all the time when I was a runner they were always good to keep me give me a boost but when I'm up late riding or doing podcasting I always take one too gives me the energy I need to make for because it has no sugar and a convenable convenient portable side it's the perfect pickme up for getting stuff done and with many different flavors including watermelon tropical burst grapeberry and more there's a flavor for everyone so you got to try them all if you go to 5our energy.com that is the number five hour energy.com and get 5our energy product today you can use my promo code locked on CFB to receive 20% off your order this offer is only valid until September 30th on one order and cannot be used with other promotions this code is not good on sub subscription orders so go to 5our energy.com today this is locked on BC AJ black I am the editor of Eagle Insider part of the 247 Network we are an incredible network of web uh of Team sites for whatever team you want I run the Boston College site Mitch is my writer and we put out great information I have some hockey updates coming up for BC hockey blogger right now for the next four days we have 75% off a subscription you can get in for $228 cents a month I believe it is for every month for 12 12 months you can get in for 75% off sign up today get over to Eagle Insider I hope to see you there if you've been thinking about it it's a perfect time to take advantage of that deal all right Mitch um I'm gonna make you wait because I'm gonna tell my prediction for this game and I've added I was on another podcast earlier this week a couple no's podcasts have asked me to come on and I I I've sat on what what I think is going to be the prediction the spread is 15 I am very I I'm not very confident I'm pretty confident the Beast he's going to cover and I think there's enough explosiveness and Florida State whatever happened last week then I think there'll be just enough residual effect to uh cause this to get closer I think BC will have a couple big plays um and I do I one piece that I am worried about is that this is the first game for BC and not for Florida State and I think BC might come out a little rusty I expect a little bit about that and especially and we're worried about what the offensive line is going to look like especially we don't know what's going on with Jude bowry and Logan Taylor so right now I'm GNA have Boston College losing this game 31-20 what's your thoughts we're we're about in the same thing I I think I'm I'm sticking with 31 for Florida State um so we're both confident that they're GNA kind of score some more points get some things figured out um I'm not I'm kind of taking the negative view of BC in terms of offense I think they could hit one or two explosive plays maybe early um but I think Florida state will match them and then BC won't be able to keep it up basically so I'm going with something like 30 I'm going to say 3117 um I'd probably prefer like 3121 but uh because I think BC probably won't try to kick many field goals but I I'm very I feel very strongly that the under is going to hit currently it's at 50.5 I got it at 51.5 on fandel Sportsbook make every moment more um so I feel really good about that I feel BC could cover but I I wouldn't that's not where I would my money I think it's I think it's 16 and a half right now because that's that is a good number because you know I could see Florida State you know getting in a last touchdown to extend it or something and you know it I feel like that could be a heartbreaking cover by Florida State so I wouldn't put money on on that I would do the under um but yeah I just I think that I I think that the point about Florida City having a game under the belt even though it was a loss is definitely in their favor I think BC gets a bit of an advantage because they don't have any film out on them in terms of because they haven't played a game under Bri on or Tim Lewis their side of the ball so you have a little bit of the element of surprise there but I I do honestly think I I agree with you that having the game experience is more valuable than having a you know film advantage in the element of surprise so 3117 I think I think this is competitive for the first half but then I think Florida state will eventually start pulling away in the second yeah this I think they've got too many um weapons and I know they didn't play effectively enough but I I I really do think Mike norell is a good enough coach and again I don't think this game should be a reflection on anything about Bill O'Brien because and not like this is and it goes the same way for last week Florida State it's a one game sample size like it's a long season like I I wouldn't I would say like don't overreact to this game and that's why I'm not trying not to overreact to last week as well right all right Mitch what's what's uh let's call this a show where where can people find your work you can find it at Eagle Insider and on my Twitter at uh Mitchell T wolf WF um just published uh lot of special a lot of stuff this week about Florida State become BC season um by the time you're listening this the my like weekly preview that's free on I mean everything's free on the site now uh to encourage you to subscribe but uh so that means my match up report will be on there which is very in-depth breakdown of Florida State scheme their players who's going to be playing uh for for Florida State NBC and then my weekly preview which is kind of more uh it's less granular uh it's more kind of about keys to Victory and the mat batch UPS to watch um and then some other predictions so that's that'll be coming up if you're listening to this on Friday and then obviously is Monday so we've got a whole weekend just to watch the rest of college football and enjoy and on Sunday I'm sure that those scaries will let like oh my God BC is going to be on National Television the only game on yep I'm excited for it so we'll have I'll have another episode on Sunday I have not honestly thought what I'm gonna talk about but I'm sure there will be stuff so thank you all for listening you can follow me on Twitter at aj47 become an eagle Insider but also join our Eagles Nest as well where you can get texts from me and ask questions I'd send videos all sorts of good stuff there uh the details to sign up are in the show notes I hope you consider it it's a great way to support the podcast thank you all again we'll be back again on Monday for another episode of lockdown Boston College The Season's almost here your team every day