thank you everybody for coming to the college football betting with Aaron Torres YouTube channel if you could do me a quick favor see that little subscribe button at the bottom of the screen go ahead click that subscribe button it helps our Channel grow it helps our audience grow I appreciate it more than you know as we're talking college football on this channel year round appreciate your support click that subscribe button and the big noon kickoff game is Penn State at West Virginia Penn State an eight and a half Point favorite over under set at 51 one and a half with Penn State listen it's new but it's not new with the nitty Lions a year ago they go 10 and three and I hate to say it it was the most Penn State season that I have ever seen by the way I picked Penn State to make the college football playoff and that last year the four playoff second team from the Big 10 outside of Michigan safe to say that did not happen and it was frustrating for somebody like me that believed in that program because all the pieces were there we were sold on Drew Aller being but it was basically the same season that we have seen from Penn State Time and Time and Time Again defense was Elite offense wasn't good enough you go to Ohio State we talked about it at the time Ohio State the worst quarterback situation they'll ever have can't get a win Michigan we've talked about it they don't have they don't know who their head coach is GNA be two hours before kickoff Jim Harbaugh flies with them two Happy Valley he gets suspended before the game Chiron Moore still leads them to Victory so it was a disappointing end you lose to miss in the peach bow but there is optimism I mean listen you went 10 and three it's a 12 team playoff era and if you take care of business you go 10- two this year in the regular season you're going to that 12 team playoff the big piece of news out of Penn State this year going into the season we know what it is it is they have a new offensive coordinator and they claim it's gonna be so different this year now we'll see if it's actually any different but the name to know there I'm going to butcher this name I might just end up calling Coach K I got Andy kol Nikki I believe is the name the one thing I do know about him he was at Kansas and Kansas I don't think people appreciate Kansas has been awesome they won nine games last year essentially with mostly a backup quarterback fourth in the nation in scoring third in total offense so if he can transition that with Drew Aller we're cooking with gasoline problem with Drew Aller listen we know what it was a year ago 60% completion percentage 25 TDS two ints that sounds great the issue is of course that in the biggest games he just did not show up final uh the the three losses uh 50% completion percentage in those games I think it was actually like 49.8% um so I mean we're talking about a situation where he just wasn't good he just wasn't good in the biggest games and so you got to be better you have the new offensive coordinator we'll see if it gets better terms of West Virginia I they were one of the best stories in college football last year uh Neil Brown remember was on the hot seat entering the year all the guy did was casually win nine games a season too how did they do it for people who did not watch by the way they actually played Penn State pretty tough week one in Happy Valley you wouldn't know it looking at the final score but that game was you know pseudo competitive until late Penn State did score with like I don't know like you know whatever 10 seconds to go to to to get to to to cover but that was a game that you know was 21 to7 going into the final quarter and so with West Virginia what you need to know um what they do better than anybody quite literally almost they just run the football Neil Brown took over play calling last year third nationally in Rush yardage 228 yards per game so they're going to run the ball their quarterback Gary green is good but he can be a little bit erratic uh he was a guy that completed about 53% of his passes a season ago but a guy that can beat you with his arms and his legs because that 53% completion percentage don't forget he also rushed for about 700 yards and 13 touchdowns now in terms of this game I have a feel I got an instinct and I'm going to take the under a 51 and a half in this game let me explain why bottom line is listen nobody does PR in the off season like college football coaches every College I mean think about just what we've talked about on this show Billy Napier this year's different most accountable team we've ever had Lincoln Riley defense is Miles Ahead of where it was a year ago Brian Kelly defense is way better than it was a year you go on and on everybody's got all the answers in the offseason but what I truly believe is that once the games kick off you revert back to who you are as a coach and as a as a program right and so Penn State can say all the right things oh this offense is going to be this it's going to be that Drew all is going to be amazing well here's the bottom line yeah if you're opening against William and Mary at home yeah I think you're probably gonna try to light it up but what we know how James Franklin coaches in big games especially on the road it's going to be loud it's going to be hostile and my guess is I don't say he coaches tight but I think he might coach a little bit tight I think he's going to be conservative I think he's going to rely on the ground game and then when West Virginia has the ball it's strength on strength which is unfortunate for them they have an elite Run game I didn't even talk about that pennstate defense which was top 10 nationally in basically every category if the offense was even competent that's a team that goes to the playoff and potentially has a chance to win there offense was terrible last year defense was Elite well this defense I think shuts down that West Virginia Run game so in the end I like Penn State probably wins it wouldn't Shock Me by the way if they don't win just let the record show which by the way if they don't we're going live on the air tourist pod YouTube channel at like uh you know 305 Eastern Time to break it down because I am not a James Franklin guy I think he's a fine coach think he's you know he's doesn't coach good in big games and so I just bring it up because we'll see if we have to go live at 35 but at the same time what I do believe um is this the game is going to be lowc scoring I don't know if either team even gets to 20 4 uh a lot of ground game you know a lot of clock stoppage or a lot of of non-clock stoppage with with the ground game again the helmet coms are you going to let Drew Aller open things up I think the helmet coms can slow things down to me this over under a 51 a half is an absolute no-brainer that is my best bet