Monday 1 PM Tropical Update: Francine expected to hit Louisiana as a hurricane

e e it's like Florence Francine okay and good afternoon it's just before 1:00 here we're tracking tropical storm Francine you're watching us all of our digital platforms here with this update uh the storm has strengthened some we are up to 60 MPH this afternoon as the Storm still sitting down here North Northwest movement only at 5 mph and still about 450 Mi away from Louisiana so we've still got a solid two days before this thing gets to Louisiana now a reminder the 1M update does not have a track update that won't happen until 4:00 so this is the same track as our 10: a.m. update but still bringing it into Louisiana by Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening making landfall and right now that cone extends all across south Louisiana from Lake Charles to New Orleans it's centered right now over Vermillion Bay and Marsh Island that would be just south of Lafayette and you can see its landfall is there as a category one storm so if you're making preparations we always say make preparations a category higher just in case so planning on a category 2 especially down here into where the aaal runs into the Gulf St Mary Parish New Iberia Lafayette and surrounding areas now we are supposed to we're likely going to be on the east side of this storm so regardless we're expecting impacts here in Southeast Louisiana and into even south Mississippi with some rain there now this is going to be moving so by Wednesday afternoon and evening making landfall by Thursday morning up around Jackson and then the next day on Friday it's already well to our North up around Memphis so this will luckily not stall out over us now let's talk about the steering currents and what's ahead of this thing it's fairly straightforward we've got a ridge of high pressure that's extending over the Eastern Gulf there's a weakness in the ridge on the western side of the gulf that's what Francine is going to be riding around and why it's moving North today and tomorrow why does it make this northeast turn into Louisiana into our area well there's a trough digging down and these upper level winds are going to act to pull it this direction so once it actually gets into the northern Gulf it will feel these stronger winds coming in and that's what's going to turn it into Louisiana you have to imagine all this has to do with timing on exactly when this thing turns and that's a very minor detail tell that honestly you just can't forecast with any accuracy so wobbles are going to make a tremendous difference in impacts felt and these are things that you almost just have to wait and see so if you're in south Louisiana especially from Lafayette to New Orleans you are preparing for that category one storm to make landfall now luckily it's not in a pristine environment meaning there is going to be some wind shear in its path and some dry air unfortunately though that doesn't really kick in until Wednesday as it's making landfall so it will have today and especially tomorrow to intensify so what I'm showing you here is one of our highresolution models this is showing you where the showers and storms are forming with the clouds these are upper level winds so that's wind shear and you can see there's not really any wind shear over it today or tomorrow that's why we think it's going to go through most of its intensification into tomorrow Tuesday now what's interesting as it starts to make this turn and fills these winds that's wind shear we will hopefully start to see some dry air get pulled up in it coming out of Texas and that should either either act to limit its intens intensification and then hopefully eventually start to weaken it now unfortunately that may not happen until it's right near our Coast so it may strengthen on Tuesday strengthen right up until Wednesday and then limit itself or cap itself off and then start the weekend once it moves Inland and really starts to feel that wind shear and you can just see how it gets shredded by that wind shear as it moves Inland on Wednesday and more so Wednesday night in early Thursday so as the storm strengthens today and tomorrow that is really crucial because that's going to determine how vulnerable it is to that windsh and dry era stronger Storm's going to last a bit longer as it makes landfall we're hoping it's not that strong now we do have hurricane watches up for a big portion of our Bayou parishes tabone lefou and um lower Jefferson and lower plens you are under a hurricane watch right now back towards St Mary Parish under a hurricane watch and that hurricane watch goes all the way up to just shy of the Baton rou Metro Lafayette under a hurricane watch we've got tropical storm watches for the NorthShore tropical storm watches for the Metro area including the River Parishes and we've got a tropical storm watch for coastal areas in Hancock County now here's my rough estimate on what I think the wind gusts will likely be these are probably the highest wind gusts you see with the current track and the current intensity of a cat one maybe nearly a cat too your strongest winds obviously closer to where the core comes Inland Marsh Island New Iberia getting into portions of St Mary Paris you could see winds gusting 70 to 80 M an hour right off the coast 80 to 100 miles an hour now in H tabone going up into lefou and up to Baton Rouge 50 to 70 mph winds are possible and then you can see your winds begin to decrease as you head east we're talking maybe 30 to 50 m per hour wind gust in the New Orleans Metro and for the NorthShore 20 to 40 off towards south Mississippi now this is all dependent on the track so if this track decides it wants to come a little further east or the storm simply wobbles a little closer our Direction then we could see some of these stronger winds approach our area and also if the storm comes in a little bit stronger these numbers may go up so this is something we're certainly watching here in these wobbles really do matter but right now biggest wind impacts right there we're at making landfall near Marsh Island Vermillion Bay and back through the aaaaya Basin we also have storm surge watches we are expecting AR riseing water basically everywhere in our area especially down here along the coast where that Center is going to be coming on Shore here's what we're looking at with storm surge some fairly impressive totals east of the center most likely 5 to 10 ft 10 ft closer to the center 5T as you get further away now Grand Isle bar teria Bay we're forecasting 4 to 7 ft that's on the west side of or West Bank of plans East Bank of plans 2 to four feet uh Shell Beach into Lake Bourne south Mississippi 2 to four feet and then 2 to four feet is what we're expecting for Lake pona train and Lake Mora m mostly up on the NorthShore into Tangi where those winds are getting pushed to the nor we probably won't have too much inundation on the Southshore as the winds are never really expected to be out of the South here's a closer look at your storm surge you can see there 5 to 10 feet most likely down here into where the center is now once again it's all dependent on the track if this track tracks a little closer to Morgan City we may see some of those higher totals push into tabone Parish vice versa if the storm track shifts a little further back towards Cameron Parish we may see those higher totals push back to the West as well so these minor deviations in the track will have a big impact on not only winds but also the surge rainfall totals now luckily this thing's moving that being said it's a tropical storm maybe even a hurricane it's going to bring some heavy tropical rains to the area that are going to last several several hours so it will start to add up think can widespread 3 to 6 Ines spread out into Wednesday evening and into Wednesday night but there will probably be a couple isolated spots you can see there models depicting maybe 5 to 10 Ines of rain in very isolated areas but I wouldn't say the flooding risk is off the charts with this one as it will be moving so that's the good news with this once again timing you got today you got tomorrow to get some preps done you are going to be seeing some showers at times looks like we'll start to see more of those outer bands roll in throughout Wednesday making landfall Wednesday late afternoon evening the timing is still a bit tricky there so I want you to take that with a grain of salt but later Wednesday into Wednesday night is likely when we have more rain and those stronger wind gusts along with surge luckily it begins to clear out and then as we head into the weekend here we'll get that mess out of here we have some pretty nice weather so our next big update will be at 400 p.m. Chris will have that for you this was the intermediary uh advisory just updating the winds it is slightly stronger now but the next track update that will come out at four o'clock and then the next track after that will be at 10 p.m. thanks for joining me [Music]