From Disarray to Discipline: What's Next for the Democrats? With David Axelrod & Amy Walter

hello everybody Welcome today to today's event from disarray to discipline what's next for the Democrats brought to you by the University of Chicago Institute of politics and the cook political report I'm Jennifer steinhauer senior director at The Institute of politics and it's great to see all of you in the room here today today's program is going to be about 40 minutes of conversation followed by 20 minutes of audience Q&A to ask a question please use the Q&A function and you may be asked if you would like to ask your question live on the screen you'll have that option before we be begin the disc this discussion today if you are not already a subscriber to the Cook political Report with Amy Walter you should be it's the best way to stay up with analysis of what matters most right now Amy and her team are offering a special election pass for $99 which features all of their crucial analysis from now until election day if however you want to follow the shape of the 2026 elections from to start of the new Congress and have access to briefings like this with Amy and the team I recommend the annual subscription send a link follow the link following this webinar and you can also go to cook political report.com subscribe okay thank you for joining us um we have in the room today our founder David Axelrod and Amy Walter hi to both of you let's um dig in right now um with some of the known unknowns and the unknown unkknown starting with our the bottom of the ticket um obviously everyone's very excited to see who is at the bottom of this of this haris ticket how important is this compared to other Cycles how much um stock do you put into the notion of the geography of this person uh the ethnicity the gender all of this how how important is it to this specific race um well I can start and then um obviously I'm going to throw it to David you know I I start with this two observations the first is we have uh a candidate for president who is well known in terms of her name identification but she's not really very well defined I don't know that a lot of people have much of a perception of her um partisans do but beyond that it's still it's it's it's very sort of it's not very sticky um so I do think this you know normally when we're talking about who a candidate will pick for vice president we talk about all right well what are the obvious strengths and weaknesses of this candidate we've seen those strengths and weaknesses throughout the course of the primary campaign or their tenure as president and now we're gonna you know shift here and think about what that vice president will bring to the ticket obviously we're not in that place today because we we think we know what perceptions are of uh Comm La Harris but again we haven't really dug into those yet even polling taken pre Sunday I'm I'm I'm taking with a sort of a big grain of salt it's not that it doesn't matter but again that was theoretical this idea of her as a presidential candidate we ask voters like what do you think she's running for president you know most people were like okay sure that's an interesting thought exercise now it's the real deal so so curious to see where we go there my other observation is you know it is quite remarkable what has happened in these last oh I don't know 10 to 12 days or actually maybe let's go all the way back to June 27th which also wasn't that long ago how much big stuff has happened from debate to the assassination attempt to Biden stepping down and I think what you will notice in polls that are going to start coming out over the weekend and a couple of already come out this week is that the numbers don't move all that much we aren't in an era anymore where even big big events like an assassination attempt move numbers um so this is all about playing to the margins now I will say just our assumptions about Harris and where she will be strong and where she has weaknesses the Assumption and I think it's pretty a fair one she'll be stronger with younger voters stronger with voters of color stronger with women that's not where she's going to really need to have some uh help on the ticket it is going to be with men especially um I I think the the white men that powered Biden's win in 2020 for all the talk about you know how well Democrats did and how well Biden did in those new diverse new to the electoral college but the diversifying States Arizona and uh Georgia um you still got to win in the Upper Midwest where white voters are making up 80 plus percent of the electorate so it's not just that it's uh a guy on the ticket who's a white male but also somebody who can move on the margins and to me again what do I know but uh the the that's why the Josh Josh Shapiro like in terms of not just that he's a popular governor of Pennsylvania but he has outperformed National Democrats consistently whether it was running as a governor or running um as attorney general so that is important he can go to places where Harris may not be as popular and for the Arizona Senator Mark Kelly what I like uh about uh what he would bring to the table it's kind of what Trump put up with his RNC event you know Trump went all Macho especially that last night with kidrock and Hulk Hogan and the UFC guy right it was definitely um all in on the Macho Thing Mark Kelly is one of those guys who can also do the Macho thing the dude's an astronaut um if you watched any of his ads during his last campaign they had him either on his motorcycle or in a black T-shirt on his motorcycle he has that like man's man thing but also has been um very comfortable talking about um and being around uh women including the fact that his mom was a police officer um who his wife is who is a former congresswoman who of course uh also um suffered from uh an attack and and from gun violence so I I I like it more for who he is than for what he where he represents but that's where I that's where to start hold on Jen you're muted so sorry this is 24 um I want to go back to the younger voters in moderate thing at some point Amy but David can you wait can you weigh in um yeah look um this uh this uh popup discussion is called from disar discipline that sounds kind of aspirational to me I think Democrats are in a better position than they were uh three days ago for sure uh they went from almost a non-existent chance to win to the possibility of winning um and one of the reasons is because the Democratic based voters who had been disillusioned and sort of walked away are now coming back and so that's one thing that at least in the early going that Tom La Harris has accomplished uh there's a lot of excitement there's a lot of energy and like younger voters uh some voters of color who were sort of disillusioned or disinterested have come back um and that gets you back to sort of Baseline uh the um as as am said you know the battle is among moderate voter moderate white and independent voters and whether she can get her share of those and she has work to do and you can see that the Republicans are trying to interdict that there was a brutal video that uh Dave McCormack the Senate candidate in Pennsylvania put out I guess today that took a lot of uh her quotes from the uh you know video of her from the 2019 campaign she make make it to 2020 it was 2019 campaign uh to paint her very far to the left and um I think kamla Harris has been um tremendous in the first her first intervention since she was named confident um uh calm uh relaxed comfortable with herself in a way we never saw in 2019 and in a way that we didn't see really at the beginning of the administration and the growth in her is really remarkable uh and she seemed like a commanding candidate in in in these and and I think the the language they've used the the way she's used her record of contrast with Trump um has been uh really really uh encouraging from a democratic standpoint but there's a lot of work to do and part of it is as Amy said to to uh make sure that uh she defines herself uh in terms that are uh authentic and helpful and not allow them to draw a caricature her uh which they will do that this is an opportunity for both her and uh for the Trump campaign this this lack of definition uh and uh so they're in a race to do that one of the things that will help definer is this choice of a vice president and uh so it it really is you know maybe more important than would typically be the case because she's introducing herself and she'll be introducing a vice president in almost the same time frame and uh that will be um uh so that that puts added weight on it and it's not for nothing that uh she's mostly considering white moderate men uh and uh I agree with Amy that they're two theories of thought here um they both point to uh two people Shapiro and uh and Kelly um there is a strong belief I think among both parties even though she may remake make the possibilities in the Sun Belt a little more than Biden could that the race still ultimately will necessitate that Democrats win Pennsylvania in order to win and that Republicans can block Democrats by winning Pennsylvania uh and that you know uh Josh Shapiro is a very talented politician really great communicator energetic U and someone who has shown a an ability to break through with some of those voters who Democrats have had a hard time speaking to in rural areas and small towns uh and so there's some logic behind him uh uh because he's probably the person more than any other who could help her carry Pennsylvania which is so uh important um and he could be very helpful beyond that um uh and I'll get back to uh one question about him in a second the other and Kelly you know I mean he is a former uh fighter pilot uh astronaut you know his the The Saga of his Valiant wife and their journey together is well known uh he's a moderate who has a strong position on the border having coming from a border state and can talk about immigration with some Authority uh he is an expert on National Security and you know knows more than JD Vance certainly and certainly Donald Trump about that and you know I think that's helpful and as uh you know Amy said he's an alpha guy so I think those two candidates would be by far in a way the Front Runners um I don't think that um Governor Cooper is going to be in this mix because I think he wants to run for the senate in two years in North Carolina not vice president right now and if he left the state under the constitution of the state Mark Robinson the liutenant governor would have full authority to act and I don't think he wants to turn the state over to Robinson who's running for the the Senate at the time at this time and could use it as a theater for his own Antics um you know Governor Basher is also on that list a little less tested than the others um you know Red State Governor very appealing on television um this is a very deep pool you're throwing people into though and um you know uh Kentucky is not a very big state so that would be you know I'd have questions about that if he were running in a primary for president for example he'd be tested and he could grow you you know so you have to be pretty sure that the person you throw into the deep end of the pool can swim uh uh you know I would think Kelly my feeling is if you've been a fighter pilot and an astronaut and you've gone through what you've gone through with your wife you've been stress tested in a big way um so we'll see but uh you know I think people should avoid if you are rooting for Democrats irrational exuberance at this moment um this is still you know she comes in in a deep pole uh that was dug partially you know because of the circumstances surrounding the president but I'll tell you this having been in Milwaukee and uh you know you guys were there uh you know there was this it had the feeling of a victory party uh last week and that seems like a distant memory now now it's a fight and uh it'll be interesting to see where it goes from here can I yeah I I totally agree with that and also David what I'm picking up and for those of you sitting in Chicago um I was talking to folks s in the government relations lobbying space yesterday and you know a lot of those folks they weren't going to Chicago because they thought this is going to be the most depressing nonevent ever and now folks are scrambling to get cred it it it's not it really revived that entire event and so and by the way you know um she's had a honeymoon period as Tony faio the poster for uh Donald Trump said she would she and the question is how long will it last well she gets to pick a vice president in the ne and she's going to do that probably before August 7th and then they roll into the convention um um and so you know they may Pummel her in the media uh and I think that they need to be prepared for that one of the questions is are they organized properly for that at this juncture but you know there's a lot of opportunity from now until the end of the convention for her to to uh to Define herself through her appointment and the convention itself which is a storytelling exercise um Stephanie cutter our board member uh and old friend is running this convention planning it as she did the last one I think the 2020 convention and I say this as someone who was involved in planning conventions was maybe the best I've ever seen and it was a lot it was virtual um because uh by necessity and they just did a brilliant job of setting Biden up for the fall big opportunity for Democrats uh now and as Amy said you know what would have been a moraband event is now uh one that people are looking forward to with great anticipation I want to go back to the convention a second but can I just tie some of the threads that both of you have put out here in terms of um what Harris needs to do now especially um in the demographic and Regional components that you mentioned how does she thread that needle Amy you mentioned younger voters there's the and the excitement around her for now there's plenty of ways for her to um to disillusion that group even though we know that's not the hugest voting block and we're talk about the need to to bring more moderates either back or in to the fold and then she's also obviously tethered with the Dynamics and the decisions of of the Biden presidency what are some of the can you guys kind of walk through how she threads all those different needles uh over the you know what is obviously a very truncated period I don't know if there's anything to be learned at all from what's happened in Europe and those shortened you know what labor did and what um and what was happened with the snap elections in France I don't know if there's any themes set there but how do how does she do all that in this very small period of time yeah it's a it's a really good question and um look I'm no um European voting expert so for those on the call who are I'm very sorry to uh if I'm absolutely getting this wrong or overstating this I apologize but to me the one thing that feels familiar about this from the shortened let's say the snap election in France is that what macron was betting was that there was a bigger Coalition of you know anti- Leen voters in the country than there were Pro Leen um and that's that has always been the the logic of the Biden Harris campaign right that this had to be a race that was as much about Trump as it was about Biden slash Biden Harris Administration and that fundamentally there is is a large anti-trump Coalition a larger anti-trump Coalition than there is a prot trump Coalition in the states that matter so those blue wall States those sunb States and that that Coalition has showed up in presidential years and in off years right they showed up in Michigan and in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Arizona and even Georgia um in those Senate races in 2022 and obviously in 201 uh 18 in the midterm elections so this is the theory of the case and that what part of the reason Democrats are excited and I think um David said it correctly it went from being you know think about it if it's like a soccer game the the ball wasn't even in the stadium um when Biden was at the top of the ticket at least the ball's back on the field um so the question now is what she does with it and what what the Democrats do with it so being able to Pivot back to and that's really what she did the other day when she made sort of her first official comment at the new now Harris headquarters the old Biden campaign headquarters in Wilmington where she talks about she's Prosecuting the case against Trump that's you know the fact that she was able to succinctly make that message um and powerfully make that message I think is also what got Democrats really excited but and this is what David and I um also agree on whether she she can deliver the message I think yes that is certainly much better than Biden did how credible is she as a messenger that is the real um thing that I think will be tested and I guess what I'm a little bit surprised surprised about and I'm curious to hear David's remarks on this knowing how ill defined she is even among many Democrats I I guess I'm surprised that outside groups super Pacs or the Biden Harris campaign have not gone up earlier maybe they will maybe we'll see it soon trying to re both defend against these attacks that we know are coming and we've already seen some of them go up attacking her for her liberal positions um in 2019 and as an office holder when she was in California but also you know the job she had as vice president um especially on the border so I I guess I I'm expecting those to to go up soon she's getting great earned media um from sort of traditional mainstream media sources but I bet if I were to you know flip around whether it is on actual broadcast cable or you know within the um digital sphere I don't know how robust of a defense and offense they have do you agree David or are you yeah yeah listen I I think that you asked about uh Jen you asked about the um about the the the the compactness of the campaign um you know the challenge is you're basically building it building a plane in mid-flight here and as as there's incoming uh coming I mean there are challenges for uh the Trump campaign because their whole campaign was optimized to face Joe Biden so was all about age and ability I mean there were issues underneath it but their fundamental message was the world's out of control Biden's not in command he's weak Trump is strong votee for Trump that was their whole campaign now Trump's the old man in the race he's the guy who he he he's the guy who sometimes looks addled and about whom people have you know some real doubts for a whole range of reasons that I don't need to repeat um but uh they have a mature operation that has proven itself to be pretty proficient um ton uh Chris LV who's you know uh one of the two co-pilots of the campaign is a master at negative media D back for it was the guy who did the Swift booat Veterans for truth campaign against John kery in two in 2004 so he knows how to carve people up and you know they're that's going to happen in short order so uh the question is does the uh Harris campaign you know their strategist I mean it m D was the kind of singular message strategist for the Biden campaign highly unlikely that he's going to continue in that role they've got to fill that role they've got to get a you know a strategy together very very quickly uh so she's passed the early test the campaign has not yet been built or te tested it's being tested but it hasn't been built and that is a big question in this campaign how quickly can that Gear Up and U respond to the challenge here one thing I expect to see is I expect that you're going to see in very short order uh the super pack supporting uh supporting Harris in filling the breach here and uh hitting the airwaves which is what Super PAC should do in a situation like this I want to go back to um thoughts and feelings in Trump landia but can we just talk about Chicago for a second second can anything we feel like she you know she stated she has the delegates wrapped up I mean can anything freaky happen in Chicago at this point what can we expect in this convention besides the theatrics and the storytelling that was alluded to earlier what are some Flags what are I mean I guess I'm going back to the the unknown unknowns as it were well I mean uh you know there's always been a concern about um protests and so on you have to wonder if those are going to be uh as um pronounced if with the president not on the ballot um I mean the 68 convention was not a great example that protests go away with the man uh but that was a completely different situation uh so you know I'm still keeping an eye on that but wondering if um if those are going to be quite the same um you know and uh the thing about uh unknowns whether known or not is uh there you know there's an element of U I mean unknown is unknown so uh but that that's the main I think what happens on the street in in the in the hall um and then it's just a matter to me of do they have a coherent message and is it is it delivered well and does every speaker uh augment and reflect it and then how does she perform how does the VP perform and do you leave uh do you leave Chicago with a clear message about a clear message and a clear sense of who kamla Harris is in a positive terms a clear sense of the VP but particularly who Harris is so that she is a fully formed person in the minds of Voters who who watch and everybody who watches gets what the campaign is about I mean that would be a successful convention yeah and Jen I mean you know the uh political reporter in me and I'm sure maybe even in you I won't speak for you but there was this moment where we thought wow we're finally going to get to to to to cover a contested convention it it can happen this is gonna be a and obviously it it will not so I don't expect there to be anything going on in from that sense but to to David's point about you know what's going to come from this convention and one thing where I I really do think that um you know Trump's speech on the last day besides it it it it gets panned for being too long and kind of Meandering into trumpisms but to me where where it really fell short and gave Harris and Democrats an opening is that it was not future forward right it didn't talk about here's what's going to happen you know if I'm president here are the things that are going to be better for you here's how you are going to you know this is how prices at the grocery store are going to go down here's why you're going to feel better about your neighborhood here's why you're going to feel that you know the border is going to be secure and you don't have to worry about that with me or why the world's going to feel safer and you know a lot of that speech was there was you know the the the lines he loves using about the election was taken from him and stolen from him and how terrible the Democrats are and how they've made things worse but not a lot of I'm here's how I'm gonna make it better so I do think that Harris Beyond making the case against Trump and um obviously that's going to be a centerpiece of the convention has to make a positive case for not just herself but like what is the next four years gonna look like and Biden had so much trouble doing that in part because whether it was I go back to the message and the messenger regardless of what his message was people looked at him and said I don't GNA make it like the we're not going back that you heard the word not going back thing in Milwaukee I wonder if we're going to that would the crowd seem to start that but I wonder if we'll start to see that but you've taken us back to marago um let's stay there for a second Tony Fabrizio you alluded to David last week uh when we were all in the RNC together he he made it very clear they anticipated this that they were ready for um for Senator Harris to be at the top of the ticket that they had already gotten ads together and things together so but at the same time you know um we saw a bit of um um we saw Steven Miller on TV many other Sur gets a bit of a minor freak out there's some Buzz who knows how serious it is about buyers remorse on JD Vance at the the bottom of their ticket what what's going on in TR Andia what is your sense um of and what what can you say more that you alluded to both of you about what you expect in terms of response um I don't think they wanted this I mean I think Tony there was a bit of bravado about it and I'm sure that in some ways they'd rather have her than someone else they may learn to regret that uh and I'll tell you one reason they'll they may learn to regret it uh and I alluded to this earlier kamla Harris has has been swimming in the deep end of the pool for four years she almost drowned uh but she learned how to swim and she's a far more confident and commanding candidate than she would have been than she was four years ago than she would have been two years ago that's something that you can't teach and um and I think that they probably were surprised at the composure and the command that she showed right out of the Box both in terms of putting this together and the way she's appeared in front of the camera um you know I think that she that they believe she has vulnerabilities and you know what the Republicans do best is try and paint people way far out of the mainstream and that's what they're going to try and do the problem they have is that they're kind of way far out of the mainstream too and uh so if it comes a becomes a battle of like who's extreme uh you know there's plenty of fodder to fire back with but um uh you know so I I think what's going on there is concerned last week they had no race this week they have a race and they have a new candidate who if she defines herself well and can win the Battle of definition you know they know that Donald Trump's not a popular candidate they know that he's vulnerable his numbers are better today than they've ever been uh but they're still underwater and he still has vulnerabilities and so they know there's a race in terms of Vance I'm not at all convinced that had they had this race last week that JD Vance would be the vice presidential candidate that was a luxury that you know his sons and uh the uh Silicon Valley guys and uh uh uh Tucker Carlson were very much interested in JD Vance and they sold Trump on the idea that you know his insurance policy to continue the franchise past 2028 and uh but you know you just saw in the last 24 hours taped surface of him attacking con Harris for being childless uh you know I I think that um and he hasn't he's been underwhelming in his first appearances you know the question is can he swim and I think that's a very very open question Amy um talking about JD Vance the JD Vance piece yeah I mean I guess the the real question about would they have picked somebody else comes to me to all right well would it have been uh then somebody who can undercut um Harris's appeal and or reach into to parts of the electorate that Trump is just seems not not interested in winning back namely those like Suburban voters especially Suburban Women Voters so maybe Marco Rubio I guess of all the people that were on the list I mean the one that made get from strategic sense would have been to put Nikki Haley on uh the ticket as the VP if you knew that Harris was your opponent though I I just really could not see Trump being comfortable with that what do I know right but like is he really gonna do that would he really have had another choice so um and I do think the one thing about Vance and and yeah it's been sort of underwhelming this is this is his first big big talk about the deep end I mean you know he had a senate race it wasn't a particularly uh impressive first run but you know we've seen plenty of candidates who um you know they don't have a great first run but in their reelection or in other opportunities they get they sort of rise to the occasion but he still does his his Midwest bonafides and and this is what Fazio talked to us about uh in Milwaukee was the fact that they can just plop him in the Midwest for the entire rest of this summer and fall put him in every small town medium-sized Town put him in Scranton put him in Eerie just plop him there the whole time and keep that contrast uh with Harris going especially among those voters who may they maybe they showed up for Biden in 2020 but they're skeptical about Harris this time around okay we're gonna go to question soon um there's uh down ballot races that are super important um let's talk about the impact there how another um predisposed Notions that are out the window maybe a bit or at least certainly have changed yeah so um my colleague Aon cubby just wrote a a great piece on the cook political report site about uh impact on on down ballot house races and look when we were in Milwaukee and talking with Tony Fabrizio you know he was he was boasting about how wide the Electoral College map had gotten it wasn't just Virginia but they were talking about New Jersey and New Mexico maybe even Maine right these these blue states that were now suddenly in play and the same thing was going on when you would talk to Republicans who are on the house side about how big the map could potentially get first it was putting seats that should be safer for Democrats in play but more important it was taking the the lack of enthusiasm among the bay was taking some of those I'm not going to call them layups but easier opportunities for Democrats to win over some Republican districts in places like New York and California and Oregon it was just making it harder so if if Biden is struggling to get the base to turn out then those districts that he carried by 10 12 points in 2020 well maybe now he only wins by a couple of points that makes it much harder for Democrats to get even that lwh hanging fruit that they that uh they were expecting to get and really hard to defend the tougher seats that they have to defend in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania now I think we kind of go back to scratch which is if you assume then that turnout comes back in New York in California Oregon those sorts of places Democrats still have great opportunities there things aren't much better for them in Ohio and Pennsylvania is still going to be a battle and um you know they do have more uh vulnerable seats to defend uh than Republicans just in terms of just the the overall map so I think it goes from a for down ballot house where it really was what most people I think were were concerned about on the Democratic side because the Senate map is already so difficult it was the worry among Democrats that oh my gosh now the last sort of opportunity for Democrats to sort of Hold the Line in Washington is also gone I uh we still give a slight um advantage to Republicans um given the seats that are in play this year but before this switch I think you could argue that it was more than just a slighter Advantage okay um uh wait well go ahead go I just want I just want to let everyone know we're going to go to questions after David responds to this um if check the chat if you would like to ask your question on the screen please ahead yeah I mean con Harris in the like First 48 hours is gaining where uh gaining among the Democratic base so I agree with Amy that to the extent that having an Engaged Democratic base is is helpful um that's important but in these swing districts and States it's helpful but not uh sufficient right and so what they really need her to do is do better among constituencies that she still has to do better among CNN poll this morning had her uh at 39% among white voters um she got uh B Biden got 41 last time she needs to grow some she needs to grow with you know moderates and Independence white moderates and Independence uh in order to be competitive with Trump and if she becomes competitive the more competitive she becomes with Trump uh the more it changes the picture in these states swing States and swing districts okay um so if you don't mind I'm going to go ahead and move to some of the questions now um we have um James maruchi from Harris School public policy class of 2025 um he said obviously the presidential race is the most important political event happening this year um it seems like Democrats and swing States um are going to have more confidence uh most of the folks are running far ahead of Biden will their support impact the presidential race yeah in other words is the it does the reverse happen and do the down ballot race races have Co bills um well I don't know last time I put a code on I don't think that's the way it works generally I don't know if that actually makes sense but I don't know if that works uh it it generally doesn't work that way you know if you look at like I think I think the status like 68 of the last 69 Senate races in contested uh contests in a presidential year have gone the same way as the candidate on the ballot so I think uh again um they really need they and this is why you saw the Congressional leaders coales around the idea of changing candidates they need the top of the ticket to do sufficiently well uh in order for them to survive you can run a few points ahead of the ticket but you can't run uh you know uh 10 12 14 points ahead of the ticket and expect to win these races so uh I think they're counting I I don't think that they're going to drag the presidential candidate across the line they need the presidential candidate to uh revive party's chances so that they can cross the finish line that's just I'm eager to hear what Amy has to say about that I I 100% agree with that the one place that I I'm very curious about and the one uh when we talk about other things on the ballot um is something like Arizona where you have an abortion ballot initiative absolutely and um kff actually did some polling again this is all in the before times um so this was a few weeks ago but they looked at polling in Arizona or they did polling in Arizona and what they found was that you know look as we would expect there are there going to be a whole lot of people in Arizona who vote for Donald Trump and vote for a pro basically a pro-choice ballot initiative there're a lot of pro-choice Trump voters but what they found it did help for Biden and again this is for Biden because because we know he had a base problem but what we found was or what they found was those folks who were not particularly interested in voting for Biden they turned out because they were interested in voting for The Ballot initiative they were going to go down the ticket and vote for Biden right it's kind of like once you get somebody to Target they're G to buy a stuff right like I came to Target just to buy soap and then you leave with a whole cart full of now um I don't know if Democrats though to to to the point that both David David and I have been making if that's enough though to get those swing voters in other words I think where the bout initiative was helpful in lifting Biden was bringing people who were sitting on the couch because they weren't excited about Biden now it's what about those pro-choice Trump voters or what about those independent pro-choice voters who really they don't necessarily like Trump but they're really not sold on this whole Harris idea and that I don't think any anybody other than the presidential candidate can talk to them about that not the you know not the Senate candidate and not whoever is running these ballot initiatives got it we should just just just one postcript I know we've got other questions uh the whole idea of turnout and turnout operations are they're the field goal team of the game the candidate has to go get far enough down the field so that you can kick a field goal so if kamla Harris gets within range for example in Arizona of uh Trump uh the additional turnout that comes because of the choice initiative may make the difference in that race yeah if she doesn't get down the field clo uh you know then uh she may do better than she would have but that doesn't necessarily mean she's gonna win um here's a question from Ben Miller um a student of college we know that the left leaning side of the democratic party um has felt underrepresented at the national level within their party part do you think that there's a negative impact of Harris's past affiliation with law enforcement lowering turnout and voter enthusiasm from the younger activists in the party the Trump people think that they they're talking about running you know doing digital uh to younger voters uh hitting her from the left on her prosecutorial record my advice to the um to which is completely antithetical to the their messaging to the broader public my uh my recommendation to the uh Harris folks uh if they were on this Zoom would be not to worry about that I think that it actually helps her to I mean right now the game is is she a mainstream Democrat or is she a left-wing Democrat and I think her work as a prosecutor is a certification of sort of Main and remember we're in a different place than we were in 2020 uh I think she made a mistake in that race by running away for she never talked about being a prosecutor uh and you know and last thing I'd say on this is um and you know I have some experience in this I think that I would never be talking about the historic nature of my candidacy if I were her but the fact that she is a a black woman gives her a lot of running room here and I think that I would you know I would lean into my sort of mainstream credentials and you know the the I I I think that the the Democrats are going to stick with kamla Harris and I think Young Democrats uh people of color and so on uh who are you know inclined are going to be there one thing in the CNN poll is that last time they pulled Trump was getting 20 3% of African-Americans and in the poll against heresy was getting 15% so that's one element of their strategy that may be shot to hell you know um after this is um from Jack Kelly from Wisconson watch Jack asked at her rally in Milwaukee yesterday Harris offered a clear and concise outline for both the case against Trump and for four more years of a democrat in the White House whether it lands with voters is another question Democrats struggle to do that at rallies I attended earlier in the cycle how important is it for Harris to dictate The Narrative of the election and what does she need to do to control that narrative yeah it is absolutely critical and look this was why after the debate um you saw so many Democratic office holders either privately or publicly come out and say you know uh I think the the the words that they kept using were you know unable to campaign effective ly right um and it was if if this is the the we we've seen some flashes of Joe Biden doing well like at the State of the Union but it is so inconsistent and obviously the debate really cemented this sense that he's just not going to be able to to deliver the message but as I said earlier I think Harris can deliver the message whether she's taken seriously as a messenger is what these next few weeks are going to be about well the entire campaign is is actually um going to be about and you know going to the to the previous Point um and the previous question as well you know you saw early on some of the republicans in Congress were calling her the Dei candidate and almost immediately the higher ups in the Republican Party were like whoa whoa whoa we don't need we do that because that is only helping to in really energize voters of color against um Republicans for Paris this idea that well you know if you're a person of color in this country and you get ahead it's really not because of you and your skills it's only because you were put there as part of a quota um instead um so they don't they can also really pivot to this is not an un uh this is not somebody who comes into the race um like say a brand new candidate without a record right I mean there is still when you talk to voters what they want to hear about is who's G to fix the economy and the Heritage campaign has to have an answer for that and the Trump campaign obviously they're leading on that question in part because of Nostalgia that voters have about like well you know when Trump was President we didn't have inflation he's a business guy he understands the economy sure let's go back and you know get things back on uh on track it's you you started to hear parts of this I I think in uh Milwaukee and you'll hear it on the campaign Trail I think the other message Beyond just the you know uh sort of messages we heard in 2020 about Trump and his temperament and the chaos is who is he looking out for um Regular People or you know his Rich buddies and silic Valley and uh you know Rich corporate interests um that's the that's the case that she has to effectively prosecute I think um here's a question from Kate Davis the college uh David can you take this what do you make of Republicans growing attacks surrounding Democratic Leadership unilateral selecting the Presidential nominee instead of allowing for a more democratic process at the convention do you think that argument is one that will resonate significantly with key undecided or independent voters no I mean I I think that uh I I find it almost laughable because all of a sudden um uh they're worried about the you know the the results of a free and fair election being overturned um that's like not ground I'd be arguing if I were them I don't think that's their firmest argument uh they're a little suspect in this regard I don't think that uh you know you look at polling and uh overwhelming numbers of Americans approve of Biden's decision to step off the ticket so I know I think you know I think it's too cute by half and there's sort of righteous indignation about the fact that voters weren't being respected uh just doesn't I don't I mean maybe I'm bringing my own Prejudice this it just doesn't to me it doesn't resonate um I think they're going to quickly move off of that I think they they'll stick with it to the extent that they want to kind of throw a wrench in the in a monkey wrench in the works uh and um you know so they'll Sue about whether she's entitled to the money and they'll maybe try and create ballot issues if they can uh I think most of that'll be taken care of when the uh delegates choose the candidates by August 7th but um I think they're going to move on to the sort of very conventional Republican attacks you know trying to paint her out of the mainstream paint her too far left and uh uh I don't think the manner in which she was selected it'll be very clear after the convention that she's the choice of the democratic party and I think people will move on um Linda Hardy also from you Chicago as a black woman I wondered if you both think undecideds and moderates would be willing to vote for a woman and in particular a black woman for president well David you have a lot of experience working with candidates that are brand new to voters curious you're well I um I think it's an open question we've never elected a woman president uh we have elected a black president um it's interesting to me like the initial reaction uh it shows the progress that we've made because I don't think the focus was as much on that as on her as a candidate and what she was saying and what she was doing um you know the only people I hear talking about it are you know some uh right-wing members of Congress who you know pushing this Dei thing which I think is more is less and less effective the more the better she does out on the stump she looks like a perfectly commanding candidate right now so that kind of erodes that argument and then there are well-meaning Democrats I was on the uh I was on TV this morning following a uh venerable uh female member of Congress who was just saying I just can't wait to vote for the first black woman and everything and uh I thought and I said at the time can't think of a less helpful argument to be making right now the best argument for kamla Harris is um that she'd be a better president and this is why and this is how it affects you and this is what the benefits are to you of electing KLA Harris um I thought in 201 16 that so much emphasis was placed on Hillary Clinton's status as the first woman that had actually hurt her you know the whole I'm with her campaign that they ran it's like what about me is what if I'm a voter you know how does this affect me so um uh I think this is untested as to whether there's so much resistance that you can't elect a woman but I'm sort of guardedly optimistic that that's not going to be the obstacle uh for her we'll we'll see that's interesting you bring that up because I saw that um Hillary Clinton has an oped that went up recent uh pretty recently in the New York Times I don't have a chance to see it yet where she suggests that she didn't lean into saying I'd be the first woman as much as she might have or would have and was suggesting that KLA Harris should do that there's um our last question before we wrap is from Jenny Hall um she wants to know what you both think would Mark Kelly's votes against Pro labor bills be a problem with labor voters or will the Biden Administration Pro labor actions carry um Harris so the one thing about Kelly that um I think is a liability look none of these VP Fe we talked about all the the pros for these VP picks all of them come with baggage you're an elected official you're going to have baggage um to me it it is the fact that he's a senator and not a governor right so he is part of Washington um he is not you know one of those Executives who gets to make decisions and and um be uh outside of of the swamp and you know he also is tied to Biden Harris record as much as Harris is tied to the Biden Harris record record um uh so that's one look um you know this idea about you know will say a Josh Appo or Mark Kelly alienate progressives whether it's votes on labor or views on Israel um is a fine argument to make but I would um just Echo David's point that the challenge that Democrats have right now is not can they keep their progressives happy and turned out it's can they went over voters in the middle and um so if you know if labor says wow this these votes are untenable we can't endorse the the Harris ticket that's that's fine I I would say that it would not have much of a as it would not have as much as impact as it would be politically for Harris to be labeled as too left too out of touch um for your sort of median voter I'd only point out that labor may not like every vote that Mark Kelly has cast but they sure as hell supported him when he ran for re-election and uh I I don't think I think that uh everybody understands the consequences of the you know the stakes in this election and it feels like they're all in for and I don't think they're going to make any decision based on who her VP is but uh voters might and U in a positive way if she picks someone who is reassuring that she's not you know so far out of the you know sort of the center left that they can't abide her um I I I'm not worried about uh Kelly and you know in terms of one thing about Amy what Amy said he isn't a governor um but Donald Trump was wasn't a an elected official at all Trump got the benefit of being the I think the illusion that he was the you know that he ran this far FL flung uh Empire and that that you know made him qualified for President Kelly uh may not have made executive decisions of those sorts but when you're a fighter pilot when you're an astronaut and so on you got to make some pretty significant decisions and uh I think the he may get a certain you know and I'm not look I'm not sure he I'm not even sure who the right candidate should be but um and I do think there's value being a governor that used to be like the coin of the realm in National politics yeah but um you now you got to be a reality TV star but um I I I think that um uh Kelly's got a lot of attributes that if she picks him um would redown to her benefit oh I think you're on mute as captain of the zoom I want I realize that our time is up so thank you so much um to both Amy and David for joining us today thank you to our audience the recording at this event will be posted on the cook political report and the IOP YouTube channels and for those of you who are coming to Chicago we look forward to seeing you here with many more you Chicago IOP events bye everybody bye