welcome back to conservative American predictions today I'm going to be talking about the polym market betting odds for the 2024 presidential election so in the last few weeks since KLA Harris has become the nominee we've seen KLA Harris do very well in the betting markets in the polls and in general but recently after the Kennedy endorsement Trump has begun to Surge in the poly Market forecast which could be a bad sign for KLA Harris and could be a very very good sign for Trump now the one thing I do want to mention is this is not a prediction this is not how I think the election goes as of now this is not you know definitely how it will go this is just how the poly Market betting on is showing it and kind of me breaking down the results the first thing I want to say is States like Minnesota and New Mexico being categorized as more safe for the Democrats in a state like Ohio for the Republicans is a little crazy to me but you know that's what poly Market is showing and I'm just going to be abiding by this results also the rules for the margins anything 50% and above tilt margin 60% above lean 70 to 90 is likely and above 90 is a safe margin so the States you see in dark red and dark blue are safe States so the first state I want to talk about is the state of Texas 40 key electoral votes for Donald Trump they currently show Trump at an 84% chance of winning the state which is up from I think where he last was with k Harris so good news for Trump this is definitely a margin that is you know it it's not you know terrific but it's not a horrible margin I think this would translate and probably to a trump plus sevenish win so good margin overall that's good news for Trump again not great news but it's definitely not bad news either the next state is Florida which I believe was actually a lane margin last time it was it was pretty low and it is still lower than Texas it's about 81% so it's just cracking that likely or it's not just cracking but it's right in the middle of that likely margin so probably about another six to seven point win for Donald Trump maybe Texas is closer to eight according to this but both good pieces of news for Donald Trump they're about accurate for where I think they're going to be both states are going to be about R plus 7 in my opinion Florida slightly to the right but that's just how I see it as of now then the next State Ohio this shows Trump at a I believe high 80s per chance of winning okay so as you can see here it says 90 but it is a slightly lighter shade of red than these other states so it technically is just below that 90% um you really could put it either way and I mean it's it's one of those states where it's going to be borderline likely or safe but I I am again going off of the poly Market odds and because it is a slightly lighter shade of red it is a still a likely margin just barely just barely close or barely away from being a safe margin and then the last likely state for Donald Trump the second district of Maine as you can see here Trump or I'm sorry that's not a likely margin I'm sorry about that I was uh wrong that is a not a likely margin so the likely States for Joe Biden there are a couple of these I'll start with the northeastern states New Hampshire and Maine both in the 80s for Joe Biden or I'm sorry for KLA Harris so good news for Harris I think that Harris is being a little overestimated in Maine cuz I think that she's only going to win the state by about six points New Hampshire I think is by about seven so not horrible margins here and I do think that her odds of winning the states are a little bit lower but again not horrible and overall could you know definitely happen I'm sorry I did not mean to click that okay so then the last likely state is the state of Virginia also I believe the second district of Nebraska is likely for Kamala yeah 82% for Kamala and Virginia is sitting at an 82% chance for KLA Harris as well so you know not a horrible margin for Trump definitely not a horrible showing I think that probably translates to like what sevenish points probably yeah like Texas 7 eight points probably so good news for Trump good news for Harris 13 more electoral votes but also good news for Trump because he's not doing you know horrible in the state so both States likely for comma Harris sorry again did not mean to click that and this puts kamla Harris narrowly in the lead with 226 electoral votes to Trump's 218 now the next States I'm going to go to are the lean States and the first state I'll go to is the state of Georgia which fairly shockingly I'm sorry 60% chance of winning he is doing pretty good here and I expect this to continue I don't think that you know Trump is going to you know I don't think he's going to Landslide the state by any means but I think he is still going to do pretty good here it's really one of those states that could go either way as of now but I and I fully I haven't really fully made up my mind of who wins the state as of now could go either way again but according to the poly Market betting odds Trump does have a fairly decisive lead here of about 60% so good news for Donald Trump so a lean margin and then after this we'll go to a kamla Harris State the state of Michigan this is lean for Harris she has a I'm sorry she has a 61% chance of winning so that's probably what like a TW Point margin for Harris maybe one and a half points for Harris so good news for her this is a hold from 2020 Georgia was technically a flip but North Carolina that is a hold for KLA Harris a state that Biden won by around 2.8 in 2020 so this is good for Harris if she this is definitely a state that she wants to win in order to reach 270 but you know there is still a chance that she might you know there are still some paths technically without Michigan but it it's her most realistic path definitely does include Michigan it's definitely a state that she wants to win and according to these poly Market odds she will win okay so the next state I'm going to go to is the second district of Maine which shockingly is a lean margin for Trump at just 69% of the vote so it's close to being a likely margin but it is still technically a lean margin which I find very surprising I think Trump is going to win the state by Pro or the district by probably 10 points especially with Kennedy out of the race now but you know potentially it could be closer I just think it's going to be pretty similar to 2020 where Democrats were way overestimated in the second district in Maine as a you know at at large Maine was pretty overestimated too and now I believe we come down to the final States these are all tilt States however two of them are fairly you know they you you can see who is leading each of the states firstly the state of Wisconsin k Harris as a 5 57% chance of winning the state and that would give her 251 electoral votes so this would be a good win for her it's still a tilt margin but it is a win nonetheless she would probably win it by a little less than Biden won it in 2020 but overall good news for KLA Harris and a you know a bonus 10 electoral votes giving her a decent shot of winning the presidency just 19 electoral votes away and then the next state of course North Carolina which interestingly is voting a little to the left of Georgia which you know that's what was expected to happen in 2020 it didn't happen and I'm guessing that's what what's going to happen again this year I doubt North Carolina is going to revert to voting to the left of Georgia even though that this is what the forecast is showing for now but it is still a higher tilt margin it's probably just around 2ish points um percent wise but probability-wise it is just under that 60% needed to be a lean margin so that brings us to 251 251 for both candidates and the remaining three states are Arizona Pennsylvania and Nevada so I'm going to start with the state of Nevada as it is the smallest of the three and as you can see Donald Trump is narrowly edging kamla Harris for first place to win Nevada's six key electoral votes and this puts Trump at 257 electoral votes I definitely think that Trump could win the state I narly have it going to Harris as of now but again it's another one of those states where it really could go either way and it's going to come down on the wire but again good news for Donald Trump and then the next state the second to last state Arizona this is a state that once again Donald Trump is nearly edging KLA Harris out and he is ahead by about 55% of the vote he or he's projected to win at 55% of the time to KLA Harris is 45% of the time and this puts him at 268 electoral votes so very good news as you can see Donald Trump sves the Sun Belt while K Harris appears to do be doing very well in the Rust Belt but will this hold and will and who will win Pennsylvania and again like in my prediction Pennsylvania is the state that is going to put either candidate over the top and give either candidate the presidential election and as you can see according to poly Market as of now Donald Trump by 2% 51 to 49 is leading in Pennsylvania by an insanely insanely tight margin he is going to win the state according to Market as of now and win the presidential election so this is what poly Market is showing as of now a few shocking results as a whole like you know main second being a lean margin Minnesota and New Mexico being safe for Joe Biden or I'm sorry for k Harris you know States like that couple of shockers but overall it's a fairly accurate map in my opinion so I hope you did enjoy the video comment down below who you think that the poly Market forecast will show winning come November and who actually will win the presidential election so once again thank you for watching and I'll see you guys next time