what's going on everyone Chris from pick dogs.com here with your free pick in the Mississippi State versus Toledo week three college football matchup going down Saturday September 14th 2024 just a reminder if you haven't already make sure you subscribe to our Channel and smash that thumbs up and if you're looking for my Best Bets the games that I love including my daily $19 best bet head on over to pick dogs.com and click the premium picks tab at the top of the page but let's get to this one between Toledo and Mississippi State Toledo coming into this one 2-0 on the year 1 And1 against the number failing to cover against UMass last week 38 to 23 while Mississippi State on the other side fallen short against Arizona State on the road 30 to 23 uh barely missed on the cover they were getting six and a half and that one lost by seven that followed up the win over Eastern Kentucky the game prior but they're one andone straight up and against the number this season so I think it's all about figuring out what you're going to see from Toledo here I mean we went from the dcoin Finn era in Toledo to now Tucker gleon and gleon has been solid you know he was solid in the bowl game against W oming for 184 yards but only through 14 of 34 passing and I'm a little bit concerned with Toledo here with gleon because he completed just eight of 23 passes for 175 yards against UMass which is a team that's not necessarily known for their defense and now you're a Toledo team it's going up against the Mississippi State Defense that is just outside the top 10 in passing yards allowed per game I understand Arizona state has been very pass heavy this season you played Eastern Kentuck me a very run heavy this season and uh you played Eastern Kentucky which really isn't isn't saying a whole lot but I think this is still a well coached well disciplined my Mississippi State team that Toledo is going to have a hard time running their system and playing their game against because like I said it's it's just the way that Mississippi State shuts teams down it's just by slowing things down through the air now you got you know Blake shapen who has plenty of experience you know he played for Baylor and now he's taking his talents to Stark Vegas and I think that uh I think Blake shapen can have some success here you know um he was 15 to 20 in the opener for 247 yards then you know in the loss to Arizona State he was competitive there as well you got to remember Mississippi State got flattened early on in that game they were down 30 to3 partway through the third quarter before making that comeback in the mid late third early fourth quarter it was just a case of two little too late but maybe that's saying more about the state of where Arizona state is than it is about you know just how unlucky um Mississippi state was in that game and I think that Mississippi state is probably the way to go in this one being at home you know I just have a hard time trusting Toledo trusting Mac teams on the road against SEC competition I think Mississippi State while they're not a world beer in the SEC I think they'll be good enough here especially with that P defense I'm going to go with Mississippi State here laying the points and that's going to be my free pick but just a reminder if you haven't already make sure you subscribe to our Channel and smash that thumbs up and if you're looking for my Best Bets you can find those a pick dogs uh premium W piik dogs check out our betting tools they're 100% free they're the best betting tools in the business and tools that you want to make sure that you have have in your back pocket when you're making your Best Bets for the day's action thanks for watching see you guys soon by