Why Miami-Florida is a MUST WIN for Mario Cristobal AND Billy Napier | Which G5 team makes the CFP?

Intro, Map of the show [Music] welcome to Andy Staples on three presented by Wendy's we are less than 36 hours away from week one games you know when they have week zero that it makes that countdown feel a little more anticlimactic less climactic I guess but I don't care because we're going to talk later in the show about why Colorado should have never scheduled North Dakota State and how crazy that is when you think about it and also how Oklahoma State Should Have Never scheduled South Dakota State like there's certain games at a conference you just shouldn't schedule and those are them so we're going to talk about that a little later in the show but we're going to focus at the top of the show on a different non-conference game this is one that that probably should be scheduled more often than it is that used to be an annual game that stopped being an annual game in the 1980s but probably it judging by the way the fans treat it how much they love sniping at one another this should be an annual game and I'm speaking of course of Miami and Deep Dive of Miami at Florida Florida Miami is going to the swamp this will be their first meeting since the week zero game in Orlando a few years ago and I just feel like this game should be played every year it's stopped in the 80s Florida stopped it their feeling was the SEC schedule's tough my Miami is awesome you know this was when Miami was was on top of the world and Florida was not yet on top of the world Steve sper had not arrived yet and so Florida stopped the series but this really should be picked back up permanently I mean it I know everybody saying well don't make schedules more difficult and I realize if the SEC goes to nine conference games is probably never going to happen but the excitement surrounding this game has been so much fun seeing those two fan bases go back and forth at one another because remember they recruit against each other they see each other all the time they live among each other but they rarely get to play so the bragging rights just pass back and forth you know every so often but it should be every year Florida Florida State play every other every year Miami and Florida State play every year why not add Florida Miami back to that mix but this particular meeting especially feels apocalyptic mostly because whichever coach loses is in deep deep dooo think about this think about this Billy Napier at Florida Mario chryst Miami they were hired within eight days of one another in 2021 in both cases they were promised more resources than either school had ever devoted to football so that they could build a bigger staff than either of those football programs had ever seen so that they could compete in today's environment in today's college football for national championships in both cases the coach has not lived up to expectations the the degrees of disappointment are different I think Florida fans probably a slight bit more disappointed in Billy Napier's first two years than Miami fans were disappointed in Mario Christal's first two years but they were both disappointed neither one has gotten what they want there's really not a signature win I'd say Billy Napier's best win at Florida was his first game they beat eventual Pack 12 champ Utah at home Miami for Mario I guess it's beat in Clemson last year but at that point I believe that was Clemson's fourth loss of the season I think that dropped Clemson a four- four so I don't know that at the time that was viewed as a signature win both of them better known for gaffs on field Florida repeatedly sending 10 guys out to the field field goal block team throughout the season Mario not taking a knee against Georgia Tech like those are the moments that everybody remembers this is the chance to create a positive affiliation this is a chance to beat somebody head to-head that you got to beat the problem is only one of them can win the NCAA instituted overtime in 1996 so one of them is gonna lose and it is going to be very ugly very ugly for the coach that loses I have a column about this on at on three and basically this is the Spider-Man meme playing out playing out on National Television these two guys came in in the same boat came in promising the same things and now they get to face off and and it's interesting because they've been competing for recruits they've been compared to one another all this time they've never gotten to play and now they get to play and it is a fascinating scenario because it does not matter what happens there's a massively boiling hot take to come out of this game that may not ultimately mean anything because it's week one and we don't know like are these two really good teams playing are these two bad teams playing are these two mid teams playing is one significantly better than the we don't know so we are going to extrapolate from from that one result all manner of things but I can tell you right now it's a two and a half point spread Miami's favored on the road but this feels like a game where any outcome seems possible like any outcome close Miami WI close Florida win blow out Florida win blow out Miami wi they all feel possible and all of them are going to produce lava takes because both these fan bases have spent and and the chat's a great way to to discuss this because so when Jesse and I picked the games the other day we picked Florida Miami and before we picked it and after we picked it the chat was just one after another Florida and Miami people going back and forth and that's how they feel so both programs both fan bases feel like their program is the superior program but also that the other coaches shortcomings will allow their program to win this game so the Miami fans think that Billy Napier will allow Miami to win this game and the Florida fans think that Mario Chris Ball's game management skills will allow them allow the Gators to win this game you don't always see this sometimes it's like well my coach is just so much better he's gonna out you know out scheme your guy there nobody's saying that not a single person is saying that in this game it's your guy is gonna mess this up somehow now this gives Mario chrisal and Billy Napier a chance to be the one who goes and takes it to be the one who does out scheme the other who comes away from this with some forward momentum like hey this is what we've been doing we're getting it right we're making we we've made changes our trajectory is where it needs to be that's what one guy is going to be able to say on Saturday night another guy is going to get a bunch of questions that he just can't answer at that point it's like hey you've had three years to do this what is taking so long what is the problem and again this could be based on a three-point differential but that is what is going to happen that is what is going to happen if we're looking at the two guys from 30,000 ft Chris Ball's roster overhaul seems like it has been more complete than Billy napors Chris Ball has gotten very good line of scrimmage recruits over the past couple of years also supplemented that by big spending in the transfer Port C Ward Damen Martinez Michelle Powell these These are the guys that they've gotten out of the transfer portal that they feel like can help them immediately cam Ward is the big one there's a lot of excitement about camart if you watch camart at Washington State there are moments where you're like oh he's he's going to be the savior of the Miami program there are other moments where you're like he's going to throw the ball to the other team so the question for cam W is was that because of the talent around him at Florida at Washington State or is that the quarterback he is are we going to get that kind of Jael and HDE situation at Miami we don't know at Florida the whole is pegged on DJ lagway who is a freshman quarterback who is not the starting quarterback grah Merz is the starting quarterback I do wonder if we're going to see DJ lagu some in this game but grah Merz is a capable quarterback he actually was pretty good at the end of the season for Florida last year now his season ended when he was dump trucking somebody at Missouri and broke his collar bone but I thought Graham Merz played well I thought Florida's defense was pretty terrible they gave up too many big plays they couldn't tackle that's that was the problem the hope is Shamar James back healthy you bring in pup Howard from South Carolina you bring in acea Turner from Washington suddenly you tackle better A lot of those bigger plays don't happen but we'll find out Mike G says this is the help by fallen and I can't get up Bowl I like that title I I've been going with pitchforks and torches Bowl because again the fan base of the losing team is coming after the losing coach they are going I don't know if this is work in here two different situations of course because Miami can't afford to fire Mario chrisal Florida can afford to fire billyon apier so christall doesn't have to show Improvement but unless you want a situation where you're just sort of running out the string and everybody hates you you got to start winning some of these games for Napier it's a little more urgent like you gota you got to win some of these and for Napier I I think reasonable progress is seven and five six- six you can you can make an argument especially if the six losses are close and you're competitive against teams that are making the playoff I think anything below that is unacceptable it's the University of Florida you don't go under 500 3 years in a row you got to have a standard at some point you got to have a standard and I realize they've cycled through a bunch of coaches but if you go under 500 three years in a row including years where you had the the number four overall pick in the draft at quarterback that's who you are you you you've told us who you are but if you take the hardest schedule that we've seen in a long time and you go over 500 and you're competitive against teams that are going to the playoff then that is the upward trajectory you're looking for so that's Billy Napier's mandate is can you prove that you are on that upper trajectory that that when Bill that when DJ lagway takes over it will be a team that is prepared to compete to be in the college football playoff that's the challenge there and I think Billy Napier would have a lot more optimism surrounding him if that class of 2024 had actually held together the one that they had over the summer that was ranked in the top five before six top 200 recruits flipped other schools had that held together I think there' have been a little more positivity but right now there's a lot of negativity and and worse with Florida than negativity is anwe that's your word of the day if you don't know what anwe means but I know all of you do because you're all nerds like me it is essentially oh well it's apathy it's a specific brand of apathy that that is really bad if you are in the college football business producer River asked how to spell on Wei that would be e n n UI that's our national spelling be situation ennui wait on Wei NN UI on WE there did it that way so the apathy that has settled in over Florida is the worst part of all this because if they're still mad at you it means they still care you do not want everyone to stop caring so the good news I guess with Florida if they don't win this game is people will be very mad judging by how everybody's acting before this game so that's good everybody still cares that's a good sign Miami I think is is in danger of a little onwe settling in if they lose this game I don't know that it it it goes M because again they can't fire Mario Christal so if they lose this game and they lose it badly and it looks like they're not even with that very easy schedule this year that they're still not going to be able to compete for the playoff that's when the Miami fans are like well we can't do anything about this what what what's going on here so again Miami's got to win Florida's got to win Mario Chris Ball's got to win Billy Napier's got to win unfortunately only one can win now I picked Miami to win this game on our pick show the other day Jesse Simonson picked Florida we have a piece of new information on Tuesday Florida released its season hype video they made an editorial choice in the season hey video that past schools have made and it has helped them producer River Play that video we hear you we hear all the doubt this is impossible the most difficult schedule anyone has ever seen we feel the weight of your expectation we sense the pressure the anticipation and we love it we welcome the challenge this is why you you come to the SEC this is why you play at Florida is for the match up you want to play at the highest level against the greatest competition so go after like your your family depends on it J on me J 3 1 2 3 you're in a special place that has history that has tradition flip the switch no fear we're just more looking to prove ourselves right we know what people are saying but we're here to strive together to go win that's right they put your boy in the hype video the last team that did that was 2021 Alabama before the SEC Championship game and they beat Georgia I believe I would they had a clip of me saying there is no way Alabama can beat Georgia this was the Georgia team that went on and won won the National Title by beating Alabama Indianapolis in the national title game but Alabama did beat the heck out of Georgia in the SEC title game there so again putting me in the hype video at least historically helps you win games just saying now I they may have just gone with graduates there because the other person in the video was ESPN's Jeff Darlington a fellow former independent Florida Alligator gymnastics beat writer like me uh Jeff covers the NFL I'm not entirely sure what he was talking about there but they probably just making fun of him as a Florida grad because Florida had that schedule Lisa in the chat editing a video doesn't win games Miami has episodes to means nothing does Miami have any with me in a Melissa I don't think so now I know some of my friends down in cor Gables might just cut something together real quick if if they're worried it it might cause a problem if they're worried that might actually mean something there's plenty of clips of me talking about Miami too so if that's a problem I think they can fix it but no Lisa historically and I realized my sample size is small but historically putting me in the height video leads to an upset just saying it's just math it's just science the truth ask are you the good luck charm Mandy or are you a bad Omen for others this is like a glass half full CL glass half empty situation or the classic talk radio thing was it a great comeback or the other team choke I think we know the truth to this truth the truth I'm I'm a bad om it's I I'm not a good luck shower I I jinxed Georgia in that game Willie says if y'all want any any more videos in any fashion hit the like button that's right now I'll keep making them even if you don't but we do want we do want to make some hype videos like we'll say some outrageous stuff this season we will wind up in other hype videos don't worry this show will find its way into multiple hype videos but so far just Florida we'll see if my record is intact will it stay perfect when Miami visits the swamp or do I drop to 500 that would allow my pick to be right if Miami wins so I I don't know where to go on this one but I do know know that Mario chrisal has to win Billy Napier has to win only one of them can win so come back Saturday night for the molten blazing hot takes either way the swamp will be electric and either it will continue to be electric and they will play Party Like a Rockstar by the shot boys while everyone cheers or it will be very quiet and the shot boys won't get played we don't know what's going to happen yet that's the beauty of all this cannot wait for Saturday cannot Rhoback Ad wait today's show brought to you by roback the makers of the best hoodies polos crew necks long sleeve crew neck today love it rhob BAC the performance hoodie my favorite piece of clothing I've got a bunch of them two have been stolen by my daughter I've only got the one long sleeve crew neck and I'm a little concerned that my son might steal it as he's he is growing he's not my size yet but we're only months away maybe maybe a year away and then all of a sudden he's raiding my closet this is one I would imagine he will have his eye on I'm G have to protect it or probably buy some more you can make your first rowback order get 20% off that first order with the code Andy rhob bac.com roback.com use the code Andy 20% off load up on hoodies polos quarter Zips joggers shorts they got clothing for the ladies too great for the golf course for the tennis court for the bar after the golf course and the tennis court you know what to do use that code Andy for 20% off your first order RH o bac.com jd200 in the chat do you do Saturday postgame shows why yes JD I Saturday Instant Reaction Tease do I would I would advise all of you to show up at midnight on Saturday midnight eastern time for a huge show for perhaps the best show we've ever done we'll be breaking down all the games now as things happen during the day if it's Monumental enough I may go live now I'm going to be at the Florida Miami game chances are I'm going live for a few minutes after that game anyway more than likely so just plan on that but I do realize you guys are watching other games you may already have moved M on in the next game so I understand if that's going on but midnight eastern time Saturday night all the big games will be over come here we will gather we will discuss there will be much to discuss I promise much to discuss because we've got Florida Miami we've got Georgia Clemson we've got Texas A&M and Notre Dame we've got West Virginia and Penn State we've got got games happening Friday night we got Oklahoma and Temple Oklahoma RB Coach Demarco Murray Suspended 1 Game on Friday night and I realize that one's probably not in doubt in terms of outcome but it's interesting it's Jackson Arnold's first start since the bowl game you get to see him now that he has had a full offseason as qb1 also who you won't see in the Oklahoma game on Friday night running backs coach DeMarco Murray he is suspended by the NCAA for game one so 65 impermissible phone calls 36 impermissible text messages 17 recruits over 16 months this is one of those remember I was talking about the Connor stallions documentary my wife was watching it with me and I had to explain the NCA doua rule that was broken and she's like who cares this is another one where if you try to explain to a normal person what rule was broken like who cares usually these days when you're talking about impermissible phone calls and text messages it's to players who are not yet Juniors they're they're not old enough to be getting the phone calls and the text mess messages uh so that's usually what we're talking about now the problem is sophomores are going on unofficial visits and programs want to stay in contact with them so you have stuff like this it sounds like a lot 65 phone calls 36 text messages but it is to 70 different people over a 16-month period so eh One game suspension I think Oklahoma's gonna win that game anyway elsewhere in the state of Oklahoma on Saturday there's a game Why Schedule FCS Opponents? that I don't know how it got scheduled I don't understand how it got scheduled South Dakota State at Oklahoma State and we'll lump another game a Thursday night game a game you're gonna see tomorrow night into this basket as well North Dakota State at Colorado and I thought Deion Sanders said it right at Big 12 media days Rick George the ad why did you schedule this game why did you do this to me because when you play the best of the SCS it's a no- win situation for the FBS team and I realized I made a mistake yesterday when I was talking about some of these games so South Dakota State Oklahoma state is a two-time defending FCS champ going to play a power conference school and I said the last time that happened Appalachian State beat Michigan and while it is true that Appalachian State in 2007 was a two-time defending FCS champ and did beat Michigan that was not the last time that happened the last time it happened was in 2013 when two-time defending FCS Champion so like South Dakota state now North Dakota State went to Kansas State and won in 2013 the following year three-time defending Champion NDSU beat Iowa State and then two years later five-time defending national champion NDSU beat Iowa now Chris kman who coached some of those North Coast State teams he's the Kansas State coach now but both those teams are still very good obviously South Dakota state is coming off the FCS National Championship North Dakota state is the favorite to win the national title in the FCS by many who follow the FCS really interesting story by Pete th ESPN about the players who came back because there there were guys that got offered chances to go play Power Conference football for quite a bit more money than they would make playing at North Dakota State and South Dakota State like North Dakota State left tackle greay AEL was one that that was targeted he decided to stay and very very funny detail in Pete thel's Story one of the reasons he stayed so he's an Agra business major he has rented 250 Acres three hours from Fargo to plant corn and if he goes to some other school in some other state he can't do that so gra AEL will'll be protecting cam Miller and it's a a good reminder both these programs North Dakota State and South Dakota State have veteran quarterbacks they're not breaking in a new quarterback against the power Conference team for South Dakota state which is playing at Oklahoma State and still water that's Mark granowski he's the reigning Walter Payton Award winner so the the FCS Heisman winner essentially and he had a chance to to maybe go to a big 12 school or go to a big 10 school and be the starting quarterback but he stayed and now he's going in there and and the thing is these are bigger senior classes these are people that have been together that have won a lot of games together that this is their chance to make a lasting memory now they also want to win the FCS national title but they understand if they win a game like this it's another thing that they can just look back on on their college care say hey remember when we did that remember we went in there and and quieted a soldout stadium so I don't understand why these games got scheduled but it's going to be fun in both instances North Dakota State Colorado lots of people are going to watching that because everybody wants to see coach Prime it's Thursday night it's 8 o'clock Eastern time ESPN South Dakota State and Oklahoma State because it's Saturday there'll be other games going on it might not draw as much attention but in both cases you've got single digigit spreads you've got very disciplined veteran heavy teams coming in it's going to be fun now Oklahoma State also very veteran heavy lots of guys back and of course olly Gordon II the best running back in college football from last year I think the veteran level at Oklahoma State the the level of experience at Oklahoma State probably helps in a situation like this Colorado You' got some veterans you got some guys that have played a lot of football like shador Sanders like Travis Hunter but you've also got a lot of guys who haven't played together before I think that's the difference between Colorado and okah state in that situation youve got revamped offensive and defensive lines at Colorado where a lot of those guys came in through the transfer portal so how well do they gel together immediately against guys that have been playing together for a while that are certainly not scared and are usually pretty disciplined but those two games I'm telling you those are going to be fun those are going to be fun and we are again less than 36 hours from kickoff in Boulder the B and and the buffalos it's going to be spectacular now if you want to play some prize picks during that game you absolutely PrizePicks AD can download that prize picks app use the code Staples you play $5 you get $50 instantly and the way prize picks works is daily fantasy so you're picking squares if you're looking at that Colorado game you can pick shador Sanders you can pick Travis Hunter as receiver you can pick Jimmy horn Jr as a receiver you can pick cam Miller the North Dakota State quarterback cam Miller's number is 177.52 squares and you can pick more than two and the more squares you pick the higher the potential payout if You' like a Three Square well Jaylen milro Alabama quarterback playing as Western Kentucky on Saturday they're giving you Jaylen milro 05 passing yards more than so if he throws for one yard you got it so grab that Jayla mro square and then you can load up with some other squares on that Colorado North Dakota State game prize picks download the app use the code Andy you play $5 you get $50 instantly Group of 5 Preview but enough about the FCS let's talk about the FBS but the part of the FBS we don't talk about as much the group of five so some team from the group of five is gonna make the college football playoff this year might actually be more than one remember it's not a rule that the group of five champ the top rank group of five champ is number 12 and that's the only thing they can ever do no the five highest ranked conference Champs automatically make the playoff it does not matter which conferences they come from it's just that more than likely the ACC SEC Big 10 and Big 12 Champs will be ranked higher but they might not be there have been times when they wouldn't have so we don't know what's going to happen to the group of five we don't know who's coming out of there and maybe it is more than one so we've got an expert on our staff at on three Kaden Smith follows the group of five very closely and also near and dear to his heart because he played at Appalachian State let's talk to Kaden about the group of five and who has a chance of getting to the Group of 5 and the Playoffs Deep Dive playoff we welcome Kaden's Smith of the on3 national desk the on three Roundtable Channel if you're not subscribed to that by all means subscribe to that one on YouTube as well as this one and also for my Appalachian State Mountaineer football player Kaden Smith we're getting the biases out of the way early but also you're a person who understands Kaden what we're dealing with in terms of competitiveness when we're talking about these these group of five teams as they fight for doesn't have to be one playoff spot could be more than one but might only be one yeah I know it's an exciting time for the group of five and I want to shout out the news desk I know is watching this right now and really appreciative to be on your show Andy but when you talk about the group of five yeah when you're App State when you're some of these big teams in Memphis is the ucfs in the past you're always talking about that cotton bow it's very exciting to make it to that cut and aspire to be that but when you add the college football playoff into that fold it just changes things drastically I've talked to some appstate players who aren't afraid to talk about their aspirations to be in that college football playoff I think all these top teams that we're going to discuss today have been talking about that throughout spring throughout the summer throughout fall camp and might sound a little farfetched but it's kind of a great recruiting pitch too if you're a group of five school you can sell to some players some recruits that you can compete for a national title we'll find out in the next couple years in this season specifically how competitive it will be and we know there's a lot of murmurs about the five may be having their own playoff one day and the future of what this playoff will look like and what the group of five's involvement in this will probably change in the next couple years which I think makes this moment even more special and whoever whichever team is going to be that first team to make this spot I think will definitely have a special stamp when it comes to history of the group of five yeah and it's it's very difficult to predict I think probably the first place we should start is kind of handicapping the leagues because all conferences are not equal you know that you're following the power conferences it's the same thing in the group of five the the Sun Belt and Conference USA are very much not the same thing in fact I think if we went back 20 years and told somebody that the sunb belt would be stronger and deeper than Conference USA bu a lot people would be like what are you talking about like Conference USA is like the best one of these leagues because it was at one point but now it's not now you've got the American now somewhat more diluted as they've lost teams to the Big 12 they lost SMU to the ACC and then you've got the Mountain West which is just sort of chugged along with the same group of teams although the added wrinkle this year is that a lot of Mountain West teams are playing Oregon State and Washington State yeah it'll be fascinating to watch and I think there's definitely a hierarchy when it comes to these group of five teams I'm a little biased to the Sun but I think the regional rivalries in the sun Bel and just top to bottom this is a conference that only had two teams not make a bowl game last year but M West had a couple nine- win teams last year they're very consistent going back to some of the San Diego State teams we've seen in the past and Boise State the last couple years and specifically this year who's a lot of teams favorite to come out of there and maybe be in this playoff but you mentioned it too these schedules and these leagues aren't created equally I mean you have teams like Liberty when the past two seasons haven't scheduled a power five opponent in the last couple years you saw them make that cut last year and be that team that played Oregon in a 45 to six lopsided game where maybe this year maybe the criteria is a little bit different I think one of the most fascinating things to watch is is going to be is an undefeated team who maybe has a a weaker schedule when it comes to non-conference play or a stronger schedule when it comes to conference play is one win two win undefeated season what's that going to look like as far as which team gets picked in here I mean I think last year they said a precedent when it comes to Florida State getting left out of this playoff that maybe Styles win fights maybe you see a team that might have two or three wins but you respect their conference in the group of five a little more you respect how they've played a power five team a little bit closer I think you look at last year there's teams like James Madison Troy SMU who's probably going to make a seamless transition position to the ACC were maybe more built for that game that they had against Oregon when you look at the group of five team playing in that cotton B so I think it's going to be fascinating to watch you look at this matchup these matchups in the cotton ball era four group of five teams got wins in those games and when you look at the six losses half of those were ons score games so I think if the committee takes their time and really tries to find the team that can maybe play the best and is the most competitive when it comes to this and maybe puts the records aside a little bit I think we'll get a better playoff overall it's going to be fascinating to see well and and what happened with liberty in Oregon is is a good example of this because that team there's a very good chance that team winds up seated 12 really good chance they're going to play a number five seed that is probably the second best team in the Big 10 of the SEC and so we're talking about a real National Title Contender with great depth that probably just had a little bad luck or lost the wrong game at the wrong time and if you look at last year so Liberty was undefeated mentioned they haven't played a power conference opponent in a couple years Conference USA is as weak as it's ever been they go undefeated they were only one spot ahead of SMU which was the American champ and SMU had a couple of losses but SMU then leaves for the ACC I do wonder if you get in that situation again and let's say Memphis wins the American with a couple of losses like they go to Tallahassee to play Florida State but let's say that they they win the American with an 11 11-2 record and Liberty sitting there 13-0 having W Conference USA and their best non-conference win is Appalachian State from the Sun Bel does that Memphis team gets Jud get judged differently because of what happened to Liberty against Oregon last year yeah it'll definitely be fascinating to see I think when you look at these teams who have historically been in these games like the memphis's like the ucfs and the Cincinnati who have now moved on I think they have certain things in common that you could find in teams this year that could maybe make that jump so I think when you look at a Liberty team list and I played against Jamie chadwell's offense they got the best of me a couple times at App State for sure and this is a squad that kind of relies on on some deception you have Kaden Salter who is most importantly maybe his best achievement of the offseason Jesse simonton's first pick in y'all's annual fantasy quarterback draft he's obviously a great player his back Field's great and they're absolutely loaded in relation to their conference I mean when you look at Phil Steels unit rankings they have the number one quarterback room running back room offensive line room defensive line room the number two linebacker and defensive back units in their conference so they're going to dominate their conference there's no doubt about that the question is going to be if they have an undefeated season if they maybe have one loss to App State are there going to be in other teams that are going to be considered for this spot given what they did last year maybe these teams being more built we're going to talk about some teams that have 300 Pounders up front who are really cut out and I think better fitted for some matchups on the road against some power five teams more so than Liberty who we won't really get seed tested until they play at appalachin State home site where they're 48 and seven in the last nine years so it's going to really be interesting to watch how it shakes out I wouldn't be surprised if Liberty went undefeated this season if they had only one loss to App State the question is going to be do the does the committee look at them a little bit different because of last season and maybe give the not to another team that might have a couple more losses you I think it it might not be because of last season either it might just be a judgment on the depth and quality of Conference USA because I think that matter like Liberty has so much more money than the rest of Conference USA also it's it's a very Lop ited situation there whereas the Mountain West the Sun Belt the top of the American and the Mac are much more competitive within the leagues and but they're all different like I would say the overall quality of the sunb belt is superior to the overall quality of the Mac the overall quality of the sun Bel probably more similar to the overall quality of of the Mountain West and the and the top of the American so it's it's a really it's a it's a weird mix now there are some games though early season that are going to help shape all of this because a lot of times it's when one of those teams beats a team that comes from a power conference that is GNA be good like when Cincinnati was the American champ and made the playoff in 2021 what did they have to do they had to beat Notre Dame if they didn't beat Notre Dame they were not going to make the playoff they beat Notre Dame they went to the playoff you go back to 2016 when Houston which was coming off winning the American going to the peach B they beat eventual Big 12 champ Oklahoma but then they dropped some games in conference and it it didn't it didn't work out for them so you've got to you've got to be able to do both but let's talk about some of these games so I will start with your alma mater appstate Clemson early early early Clemson's cominging off a game against Georgia and this for Appalachian State it's not the season because again you talked about how deep the Sun Belt is you talked about how Liberty is going to be an important game for them too but this will be their opportunity to make a statement no there's no doubt about that and I think app State's resume just speaks for itself when you look at what they've done against Power five opponents in the last couple years when you see App State on the road against a team that's probably not supposed to lose to them and they're wearing the black helmet the white jersey and the black pants you know it's business and M Brown had to play a three-game series with this team and said he's not scheduling them again but when you look at this team the last time they Lo lost in a game or played in a game that was less than a one- score game it was when they faced Georgia in 26 team and that team ended up going to the national championship game this team has a win over North Carolina a win over South Carolina Texas A&M win overtime loss to Penn State list goes on and on this team comes to play and I think the pedigree of these teams playing against Power five competition will speak for itself and hopefully something that's considered because even if some of these teams like some of these other matchups we'll talk about these teams aren't able to get victories in these games if they can at least play them close and show that they have maybe the skill set and in the size and the the speed and athleticism to compete with some of these power five teams maybe they have a better shot of making this playoff and I think App State might have one of the better opportunities compared to all the these other teams just compared to their pedigree and what Clemson might look like this year there's some question ARS Kade kupnik I know personally as a former player very curious to see how this week one game goes I feel like Georgia can either roll against this Clemson team and by a comparison app State might seem a little smaller a little slower compared to a Georgia team who's absolutely just robust up front one of the best rosters in college football or maybe they're a little bit beat up after this game and abs they can maybe get the best of them so that's definitely going to be one I'm going to watch and probably be intendance for week two well okay so here's what I here's what I'm trying to figure out what's the better outcome for App State week one Clemson beating Georgia upsetting Georgia or Georgia dominating Clemson like wh which one allows because I would think if Georgia dominates Clemson Clemson is gonna want to come and just Hammer App State to drive the point home that hey that was an outlier game but if Clemson were to beat Georgia well they're thinking okay we're good we're national title again that would be the let down spot right there yeah I think at the end of the day what app State fans want to see is a close physical game I think if this game looks like the Clemson Georgia game a couple years ago that went really down to the wire it was a 10 10 to s or 10 to three game yeah it was 10 to three I think it was a slobber knocker yeah if it's if it's one of those games that's all we need obviously they'll be a little bit more motivated if they get really beat up by Georgia in this match up I think at the end of the day if this team is beat up physically after the game I think that's what out State fans are going to want more than any things so I definitely think it's going to be a fascinating match up this team's not going to Flinch at all and I think if Clemson is not having their maybe their backups playing in the entire fourth quarter would probably be the best case scenario for ab state so the the group of five program through the years that probably would have benefited the most from this type of playoff as Boise State and they come into this season defending Mountain West Champs it was a crazy season for them last year like fired Andy AOS midseason Spencer Danon becomes the interim coach leads them to a Mountain West Title as the interim coach gets the permanent job their quarterback ton green goes to to Arkansas but they keep Ashton Genty the running back who maybe maybe the best player in the group of five this year and they've got a game we three against Oregon and that one could be a lot of fun because we're looking at Oregon as a potential National Title Contender excuse me week two against orgon potential National Title Contender potential Big 10 title Contender but what if Boise State could beat him like that would be massive because I think you look at Oregon and you're going okay even if Boise State does beat them they're still probably going to make some noise in the Big 10 and that's what one of these teams needs is to beat somebody who will then be really good in a power League yeah it'll be a good game to watch and I think the quarterback competition and how that one unfolded is a very interesting part of what Boise State season's going to look like heading into that match up you know Malachi Nelson the former five star makes his way to Boise State but then loses that starting spot to madx Madison who couldn't even compete in this competition in the spring he had a season ending injury that ended things for him last year but I think it's kind of a good sign I think it this team has good offensive continuity you mentioned Ashton G coming back one of the most versatile players in the entire country if not the most versatile player in the country after being the second leading wide receiver and you know him some of these other Boise state players who have NFL potential are going to want to shine against Oregon and I think that's something that a lot of these teams are going to look forward to as well as knowing that you're a power five player playing or a group of five player rather competing against the power four you want to want you're going to want to play your best football when you're going up against the best so I think early in the season is when you want to get these matchups I love that this spot is earlier in the season Oregon might still be figuring out some things on their own and I think you look at the conference schedule for Boise State there's a couple challenges there but I think they can get through that pretty easily and a close win a close loss to Oregon I think will be huge considering what the big picture season's going to look like for Oregon this year with their college football playoff and National play national championship alive yeah and and that's that's one I I don't know if you had to win now I'm not a big fan of good losses as playoff resume fodder for where it doesn't matter what conference you come from I don't I don't think you should you should get in on a good loss like I think you should get in on your best wins and that's what's really important now some of these other opportunities Memphis plays in Tallahassee that's another one uh UTSA plays Texas that's a big one it it's Tain plays Kansas State like we're going to see some some teams that have some chances here yeah there's plenty across the schedule I think it's fascinating how many of these teams that are some of the favorites and some of the best teams in the group of five are playing teams that are entering the season ranked it's a great opportunity for them I think the like a big a big win like you mentioned would be the biggest and best case scenario for any of these programs but I think close losses when it comes to the group of five compared to the power four maybe is a little bit different and I think a team that can show they can stand toe-to-toe on the road against one of the Brank teams in the country when we get to December and they're deciding which team makes the cut here maybe that's something that's accounted for but you mentioned some of those matchups a ton of them I'm excited for I know Liberty versus app state is one of those games that you have tabed as a real real big game that can Define the college football pivot point game absolutely pivot point game yeah I think UTSA versus Texas state is another one this UTSA team obviously has the pedigree with Jeff trailer the last couple years but this is a program who has to deal with life without Frank Harris this is a guy who in Jeff trailer has gone 39 and 14 at USA and six of those losses are games where TR Frank Harris was not this team's leading passer so they have a new quarterback to break in they're playing Texas should be a very big game to watch and they have a new quarterback they have to break in for that matchup and then right after that they have to play a Texas State team who only lost to them by seven points last year and that was with Frank Harris DJ Kenny done a great job recruiting in the transfer portal he adds play sunbell Player of the Year from James Madison and Jordan McLoud as his quarterback we saw what TJ Finley was able to do in this offense you mentioned Ashton jeiny there there a guy in Texas State named Ismail miti who's probably just as versatile of a weapon he led the nation in allpurpose yards last season so I think they're playing Arizona State early in the season as well so I think UTSA and Texas State their matchups against a Texas their match ups against Arizona State will be huge and I think their matchups against one another will also be big when we look in the future of this which team is going to make the college football playoff out of the group of five so if you're a fan of college football and you're a fan of tubing down rivers and you're a fan of water parks early September in San Marcos might be the place to be because you can go see that UTSA Texas State game which is such a fascinating game because Jeff trailer was literally GJ Kenny's High School coach like how often do you see that that last year GJ Kenny and and Texas State beat Baylor and then they had to go play UTSA as you mentioned UTSA beat him this year they get him in San Marcos and then five days later Arizona State comes to San Marcos like scop down the river for three days and then go to go to see the Arizona State game like this is fascinating and also the idea of Jordan McLoud who was very versatile very good at James Madison last year in GJ Kenny's offense is pretty exciting oh it's very exciting I think what excites probably Texas State fans the most is that schedule we've been talking about you get UTSA at home after that 20 to 13 loss last season Arizona State's probably one of the more manageable P power four draws you can get and then when you look at their sunb the Sunbelt is the only last conference in college football that still has Division and the Sunbelt West that Texas State resides in is a lot weaker than the East and the two teams they draw from the east or Georgia State and Old Dominion who are probably picked last by most people to come in that order when it comes to the East Conference standings and then you look at the Sunbelt West there's four new head coaches in that conference ULM and Southern Miss are the only two teams that didn't make a bowl game out of this conference and then you get Louisiana and Arkansas State at home I think you look at the sunbell in Texas State Pacific specifically and App State it's really coming down to pedigree versus potential I think Texas state has a ton of potential their offense lit up the scoreboard they return a ton of starters they had some weird losses last year they let some close games get away from them 77 points they gave up to Arkansas State in just a weird game so I think they clean up some of that stuff they have a huge potential to be that team that could be in the group of five spot in this 12 team playoff but you want to go with the pedigree and maybe AB States Championship experience I think that's who's really going to come out of that conference between those two teams you also mentioned you mentioned ULM we are a general booty appreciating show here the general now obviously the war Haws not necessarily expected to do a whole lot in Bryant Vincent's first year but I do want to point out that General booty are starting quarterback because it's General booty and we have to talk about General booty whenever we get a chance so that said let's move out of the the America out of the Sun Belt to the American you mentioned UTSA which that was their first year in the American they and they comported themselves very well but again what do they look like without Frank Harris Memphis has been near the top of the American since Ryan silverfield has been coached going back to when Mike norell was coach they feel like a team that can win this league this year yeah this is a team that wenton 10 and three last year and they had really impressive wins against Boise State and Iowa State in their bowl game Who a lot of people like is kind of a Dark Horse team in the Big 12 this year they arguably bring back the best team in the AAC but they unarguably bring back the best quarterback and Seth henan this dude is a absolute stud he'll probably get the opportunity to play in the NFL and I think he has a great wide receiver room as well with rock Taylor who's a big Target thousand yards last year and I think you look at this team they have to rework the offensive line they lost four starters up there but they brought back 124 starts of experience they have a bunch of 300 Pounders up there and some monsters they kind of had the same flip on the defensive back field and that worries me a little bit more because they gave up nearly 30 points per game last year they were the third worst passing defense in this conference last year but their schedule's also the toughest they placed Florida State in their non-conference game like we mentioned before the def the defending assemble Champions Troy they face early in the season UTSA in two lane they have to face off with as well and UC USF they play too and Byron Brown is the kind of quarterback who can make any game interesting so they have a very hard path but I think when you talk about rosters and teams and pedigree we saw what this team was able to do in the past when they went to that Cotton Bowl they gave up 50 points in that game they've scored 30 on Penn State I think it's looking like that team's similar this season if they can fix their defense though and win some of those close games in the conference I hope that say like we were talking about before Liberty goes undefeated but there's a there's a there's a un where there's a more respectable two or three loss I think Memphis team just given their pedigree and their guys and their personnels here well you mentioned USF because I USF has a better opportunity than any team in the group of five in terms of being able to notch that signature win because they've got two chances at it one is going to be very difficult one I think we got to kind of wait until we see what the team looks like week one to know how difficult it will be but they are at Alabama and you saw they gave Alabama hell last year in the game where the Alabama coach we're trying to figure out is jayen milro the guy we're going to find out by not playing him at all and playing the other two guys and then they realize oh wait Jaylen milro is the guy USF Alex golish their coach knows Byron Brown is definitely the guy and they play at Alabama and they get Miami at home so they'll have their chances but they also have to to go ahead and win the American and usf's been in this league for a while has never been able to break through they were they were in the big East when it was still the Big East and even those Jim levit teams that came close remember they had the one that beat West Virginia on a Friday night in October they rise to number two in the rankings and then it just the bottom falls out they've never quite lived up to that promise but when they got the QB now you start to think maybe this is the year they can do it yeah and I think quarterback play is going to just be important for all of these teams we're talking about if you have the best quarterback in the matchup it just makes things significantly better better for you but we mentioned the Sunbelt maybe being the deepest conference the mount West has an argument there but I think when it comes to the top of conferences the AAC with Memphis and UTSA and a two-lane team we can talk about that I love and even USF in the mix with a quarterback that can compete Byron Brown in every single matchup I think this is going to be a tough league to win and I think it's like we were talking about before if you are one of those four teams in the AAC can you make it out of this league unscathed probably not it's going to be very hard just given the matchups but does the committee maybe see a team like USF or some of these teams that are the conference Champion out of this conference maybe do we Crown them as the team that's worthy to be in that 12 team playoff just because they have to face each other and go through that Gauntlet so you you mentioned taine and and Tain obviously two years ago wins the American beats USC in a bowl game but now Willie Fritz has gone on to Houston John Sall who was he put together some amazing defenses at Troy he comes to tane now he he almost didn't because if Mark stops had taken the Texas A&M job or had been offered the Texas A&M job John SRO was going to be kuy's coach and so this is the level of guy we're talking about can he make that defense that good right away because it felt like he did that at Troy I think he can Andy I'm really high on this two-lane team I don't like their conference or their non-conference schedule rather you mentioned the matchups against Kansas State they visit Oklahoma in week three they played Louisiana Lafayette in the sun Bel who's no joke who he's familiar with they avoid UTSA in their schedule thankfully but this is still going to be a tough schedule with the season finale going up against Memphis but I think you look at what he was able to do and you compare this to D trailer not having his quarterback John sommerall was able to win back-to-back sunbell championships get double digit wins without strong quarterback play he has his guys ready to play on defense he returns seven starters on that side of the ball they run the same exact scheme that he did at Troy and I think they're cut for it and built forward and just on a personal level this is a guy when I was doing some Sun Belt coverage I was able to interview and be around and interact with sometimes he's the kind of coach that makes you want to run through a brick wall he had me ready to put on the pads and some of these Sun Bel championships heading before the game I think what he was able to do with this Troy program compared to what he's getting left behind by Willie Fritz and the pieces he's able to pick up there I think it's going to be fascinating they had a really close quarterback battle I think quarterback play compared to some of these other teams we're talking about maybe matters the least you look at a guy like John suon what he was able to do with Troy question is can he translate it to tulan in this new conference he has now the one League we have not talked about yet is the mac and and it's a tough one because they tend to beat each other up in there but I look there's one team I look at and they're bringing back a good team we we were talked a ton about Chuck Martin last week when he accused Alabama of stealing their kicker and and illegally recruiting their kicker but Miami Ohio does bring quite a bit back and they have a very interesting schedule so they play Northwestern first then Cincinnati then Notre Dame there's a universe where they go two and one against that schedule probably lose to Notre Dame if you do that and then you win the Mac I think you're in the conversation I think they definitely deserve to be in the conversation the MAC at large just scares me because I feel like they don't have that same appeal that see these other conferences had it's a league that's not really predicated on scoring they only had one team have top 70 points per game last season they have many great defenses including Miami of Ohio this was a team last season that held people under 20 points a game was a top 10 defense in the entire country and I think if they could maybe get better on the offensive side of the ball maybe generate some buzz in those early matchups like you were mentioning Wing very convincingly in their conference I think they have a right to be in that conversation they can run the ball you can rely on them playing great defense then the question is going to be can they get that national attention because even Sun the Sunbelt conference and some other conferences haven't been able to get that same national attention so can a team from the ma like of Miami of Ohio win their conference go undefeated maybe play some close games that earn them some national attention and Spotlight early in the season and maybe put themselves in that conversation is definitely a great thing to ask and another one in the Mac has been probably the most consistent program over the last five or so years because unlike the rest of M they've not had a lot of coaching turnover Toledo Jason kandall you know that they're you expect them to be near the top of the league every year they go to Starkville Mississippi week three that's a brand new staff at at Mississippi State knew a lot of everything Jeff Levy comes in had to really flip the roster that's an opportunity there too so there there's a chance that we could be talking about a Mac team but I I don't know about you it does feel to me like the Mac just beats each other up in conference play a little more than all these other leagues I guess since that that Western Michigan team yeah everyone loves some Ma and the Mac is loyal to everyone during the week when they're trying to watch some football on a Tuesday or a Thursday or Wednesday I think the Mac is one of those leagues though that kind of cannibalizes itself and I think when you look at some of these other leagues like the AAC and some of the other conferences in in the group of five that have a little bit more national attention if you're going to cannibalize your own league and not get in the National Spotlight I think it's just a bad recipe for trying to get in this playoff so hopefully they can generate some offseason momentum and some buzz and really show off and put on display that they are a league that deserves to be in this conversation because I think talked about it before not all leagues are created equally and I think even though they're more defensive predicated you see what they do in bowl games against other opponents I think they do have that credibility I think they're surely in a better conference than Conference USA I would respect them more than Liberty if they went undefeated this season I think so I think the Mac will be interesting to watch this year for sure and if they can get a Darkhorse team maybe in that conversation and generate some momentum I think it'll definitely be a leak to watch and we mentioned Boise State the Mountain West I do want to mention the other team that played for the Mountain West Title last year and that was UNLV I think that when when Jade mava left for USC the the quarterback who was excellent as a freshman we were thinking okay what what happens next but I think you know you've got Barry odm as the head coach there who's done a phenomenal job and always produces good defenses and then you've got the go go offense you got brenon maran's go go offense which that that gonna they're going to be weird like we don't know who's going to play quarterback for them there's three different guys listed to start on depth chart you got you got HJ Malik Williams a former Campbell camel you've got Matthew sluka from Holy Cross who I think was assumed when he decided to transfer there that he'd win the job and then Cameron Fri who was with them last year but it sounds like they're really not sure what they want to do they've got an early game against Kansas where I think we're going to learn some stuff but that's another one they kind of came out of nowhere last year I don't think they're coming out of nowhere this year no and I think they're here to stay this is a team that can score the football and I think they're one of the most fun offenses to watch and they host um Boise State this season and they definitely remember losing on their home field in the conference Championship Game to this team and I think before Boise State gets to that match up they have to go to Hawaii I think they have a road game against Wyoming somewhere in the mix there as well so I think this team is going to be in a good spot to compete this year recompete rather as well for the for the conference Championship Game Bo State's everyone's favorite Boise State will probably be in this title game and they will play a very good team I wouldn't be surprised if it was this um team at UNLV again and I think this league is definitely going to be one to watch I think we we can kind of pencil in Boise State a lot of people like to do that but you look at this team this league top to bottom how many teams were able to make bowl games and just year in and year out how competitive the San Diego states of the world hawaiis the San Jose States or the world I think this league is a very fun one to watch and I think Boise state is obviously the favorite just given their pedigree and what they did last year but they have a tough road that's for sure sea Lewis taking over at San Diego State with a a true freshman quarterback first true freshman quarterback to start there in game one in the five decade history of the program uh you got Air Force you've got we'll see Fresno State against Michigan week one so we'll get a good sense of of what the Bulldogs have you're right that that league is going to be a lot of fun this whole competition because again it feels like there's somebody in every League that might be that team and that is the great mystery and we won't know till December who that team is but that race is going to be off a lot of fun Kaden Smith thank you so much thanks for having me Andy whenever you want whenever you want to have me back on to talk about group of five football I'm Conclusion, Dear Andy tomorrow! Andystapleson3@gmail.com here that's right Kaden Smith he's the best like group five race is gonna be a lot of fun and again doesn't have to be one could be multiple speaking of multiple I need multiple questions from you because tomorrow is a dear Andy day I got a written column we got the show your questions are my favorite part of the week so send them to me on X or Instagram Andy Staples email Andy Staples on 3@gmail.com get those question to me give me a random ranking topic for that written version guys we're so close tomorrow I'm gonna answer your questions and I'm gonna say go enjoy some week one football I cannot wait talk tomorrow hey hey hey hey hey