New election polling from Elon University; NC GOP lawsuit | State Lines

- [Kelly] We explore how North Carolina voters really feel about their residential and gubernatorial candidates, then the panel shares what it thinks might be in Roy Cooper's future. This is "State Lines." [upbeat orchestral music] - [Narrator] Quality public television is made possible through the financial contributions of viewers like you, who invite you to join them in supporting PBS NC. [upbeat orchestral music] ♪ [upbeat orchestral music continues] - Welcome to "State Lines." I'm Kelly McCullen, and joining me today, Dawn Vaughan of the News & Observer, political analyst Nick Craig to her right, Billy Ball of Cardinal & Pine, and John Locke Foundation's Brooke Medina in seat four. Hello everyone! - [People] Hello. - And from milkshake... [indistinct] The vice president comes in, gets a milkshake, got, what? Mint chocolate chip? And that impressed you guys. - I guess. Did it impress you? [laughs] - Interesting choice, a very creative one. But we have business to talk about. Let's review Elon University's newest poll about voter sentiment in North Carolina, about 800 registered voters were polled by the polling firm YouGov in partnership with Elon. Check this out, 48% of those polled have a favorable view of Kamala Harris, 46% have a favorable view of Donald Trump. Interestingly, Trump and Harris both have 50% unfavorable, so 100% of the people know who they don't like. For governor, 44% viewed Democrat Josh Stein favorably, to 30% viewing Republican Mark Robinson favorably. 90% of people say they are focused on the economy, and Nick, two-thirds of those polled say the Biden-Harris administration should be accountable for this economy, but the economy was rated a C, right in the middle. We'll start with you. - So one interesting thing, and you mentioned this, was a registered voter poll. So you have two different kinds of polls, you have RV polls, which are registered voters, and then LV polls, likely voters. So it's something... It's interesting to look at when folks are digging into political polling, that registered voter polls are just people that are registered, it doesn't mean they're actually active voters versus a likely voter poll. Digging into some of the details on it, however, I'm not surprised to see Mark Robinson's on approval so high. Josh Stein and his... The groups behind him have been running television ads, mailers, radio ads, and social media digital blitzes for months now hammering Mark Robinson. Going to the national level with the economy, I thought it was rather interesting that only 17% of Democrats in the poll said that there... The economy was worse off in the last four years than it was previously. I found that number to be staggeringly low, and I wonder where the 80-some-percent of people are... Registered Democrats that say the economy is better now, or at least the same that it was just a couple of years ago. - Billy, beauty is in the eye of the beholder, isn't it? - Absolutely. [laughs] And these are... We are a polarized place, and so that poll isn't the most surprising thing that I have ever seen. I do think that I'm a little bit surprised at the gap that we're seeing between Stein and Robinson, I think our governor's races are gonna be closer than that almost no matter what, but certainly, Nick is right, there've been a lot of ads about Robinson, but using Robinson's own words, so it's been a fascinating campaign and I think that that poll... I think the thing that stuck out to me in that poll was not about the candidates, it was about the 48% of people who didn't believe in our elections, and I think that that's something that is terribly alarming to me, and I hope should it should be to other folks. - What is not to believe about our elections right now? - Well, you know, I have seen, and I think anybody who's been observing the political discourse over the last decade or so, a whole lot of talk about our elections not being safe and secure, with virtually no evidence that our elections aren't safe and secure, it's become a repetitive sort of thing that's been debunked by one news site after another, by Republicans themselves, by Trump's former Attorney General, and this, you know... I... We like to keep it about North Carolina here, but this is very much a national thing. It's a national strategy to talk about our elections and try to undermine them, and I think that it's disturbing to me. - Yeah, Brooke, this poll is not about who's gonna vote for whom, it's more about, "Do we like the candidates that we see?" No one has 50%, and Trump has higher favorables than Josh Stein, which is at least an interesting footnote. Doesn't mean how people are going to vote, but what do you make of likability in a candidate? - Yeah, well, I think because we are in a time where the cult of personality really does matter a lot, and people are looking for, you know, what's gonna perform well on socials, what's going to do numbers? And so we have almost become conditioned to expect and to evaluate people's character as well as their competency through that lens of are they likable enough? Do they just seem like a nice person or do they seem interesting? It doesn't even have to be nice anymore, unfortunately. It can just be are they interesting? Are they engaging? In the case of Trump likability, a lot of the folks, when you actually dig down and ask them, why do you care for him? It has more to do with the perception that he's going to stick it to those that on the other side or those that are maybe in foreign countries that we, you know, don't get along with, for example. And Harris's likability, it was not very high for a while. I think as she's being seen more in the media and she has a little bit more polish when it comes to these interviews, that her likability is starting to climb a bit. So it'll be interesting to see how that shakes out. - Dawn, the likability quotient here, I mean, the race can't be 14 points between Stein, 44 likable, to 30 for Robinson. There's not a, I don't think there's a 14 point gap in who's gonna vote for Robinson versus Stein, right? - Yeah, I think that the Stein's campaign has done well with these ads that show Robinson himself and what he's saying. I think there's the abortion is a huge issue, and Robinson put out an ad saying he stands by the state law, but that's because the Republicans and the legislature don't wanna change the law that they passed, and he doesn't really have as much power as them. But I think some of the, he and his, you know, he paid for an abortion. His wife had one, but he's against it for other people. People don't always like that. And the yelling, the skirt down comment, that really didn't go over well, especially with women. - Nick, you were able to interview Mark Robinson in the past. You're one of the few people that got him on the air at the time. Has he had a shot at being proactive with this campaign or has the Stein campaign just done a great job keeping him on the defensive and the clocks running out? - I think there's some of the clock running out in the defensive nature. One of the things that's been interesting with Robinson over the last couple of really even weeks is you've seen him pivot to a little bit more policy, a little bit more depth on what exactly he would do as governor here in North Carolina. So for me, as a Republican voter, that's a change that I wanna hear from all of my candidates, regardless of where they fall on the political spectrum, what are they actually going to do? And now the Robinson team is actually hitting in on that, which I think is great and will speak to a lot of the largest voting block in the state, Kelly, the unaffiliated voter. - Billy, does this pop culture sensation thing we're getting with Trump and the cult of personality with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, does that trickle down ballot or can gubernatorial candidates and should gubernatorial candidates start focusing on issues over personality and 30 second ads? - I sure wish they would focus on issues over personality, but it doesn't always work that way. And I think it does. Of course it trickles down because we saw our own governor, Roy Cooper, as the last person to speak before Kamala Harris at the DNC. So this stuff trickles down. And Stein is pretty connected with Cooper, and I think Robinson is very connected with Trump. They've appeared numerous times and they have similar sort of vocal stylings in terms of the way that they express themselves, Robinson and Trump do. And so I think that, I think that it certainly does trickle down. And what I see that's really interesting is Trump's approval being higher than Robinson's and that if I were the Republicans, that would be a very concerning number to see why is there that gap. - People could go for Trump and Stein. I mean, that was even what, you know, people were saying in the primary, and it looks like it could still be that way. It'll be close between Trump and Harris, I think in North Carolina, because it was only that, what 1.3, 1.4%, in the last elect presidential election. But you know, Robinson is much further down. - North Carolinians have been known to vote Jim Hunt and Jesse Helms. And so it's, you know, split tickets. I know some newer people say they can't believe people vote split ticket. It's a common occurrence in North Carolina as a historical fact. But let's go to our next topic. The North Carolina Republican Party, Brooke, is suing the State Board of Elections. It wants potentially improper illegal voters removed from the voter rolls this fall. The GOP says the State Elections Board authorized or used registration forms that did not require citizenship verification. Things like photo ID, driver's license, even a partial social security number. This is the second lawsuit Republicans have filed over voter rolls. State Board of Election spokesman says too late to purge right now before the election. And if we did, we'd violate federal law. Brooke, what do you make of the two lawsuits? And it's a lot to read, so, and we're on a TV show with a five minute segment. What gives? - So you don't want me to read the whole lawsuit? - Please, if you'd like to. - You get five minutes, yes. - So actually in the broader context here, this is one of 100 lawsuits filed by the RNC across the United States. So this is part of a larger, broader election integrity campaign that they've embarked on. The nature of this lawsuit in particular though, is noteworthy because this deals with 225,000 voters who used the NCSBE, the North Carolina State Board of Elections website to attempt to register to vote. And they did register to vote, however, back in 2002. There was a law that was passed on the tails of that historic 2000 election between Bush and Gore. And that law requires that people use either the last four of their social security number or their driver's license number when they're registering. And the State Board of Elections didn't require that. And, so, the RNC is claiming they didn't properly register these folks, clear the rolls. So you've got that 2002 law that the RNC is relying upon, and it bucks up against the law that the Board of Elections is claiming, says that they can't change voter rolls 90 days or less out from the elections. So, it's at loggerhead. So it'll be interesting to see how that lands, but this is part of the larger law fare that we see going on when it comes to election integrity and both political parties. - It does seem, you would expect the board to follow federal law, Dawn, but you also have a lawsuit here that can change all that. Now, is the turmoil worth it in this political climate within 90 days of a federal election? - I haven't read the lawsuit [laughs] so I'll put that out there. But I mean, yeah, I mean that's what political parties do. They try to do what they can as close to the election as they can. And that's the point of, you know, the judicial branch where you argue over what this law says in timing. So, I feel like this is to be expected. You'd mentioned voter ID. I feel like it's, I don't know how many years we've been talking about voter ID [laughs] and everything back and forth, but I don't see an end to that. I think there's certain things that are just always gonna come up because that's just how it goes. - You know, often when the term election integrity comes up, the immediate reaction from some is that, "Oh, you're an election denier. You don't believe that elections are fair, honest," I think that is incredibly disingenuous. As Brooke just highlighted, there's a federal law that says if you're going to register a voter, you have to either use the last four of their social or there driver's license. How are there a quarter of a million people in the state of North Carolina that have been registered since 2002 that don't have that information? That's why you see so many folks on the right that have questions about election integrity. It's not five people, Kelly, we're talking 250,000 individuals that have registered. The law's on the book, it needs to be followed. It's plain and simple. And if the State Board of Election can't answer to it, to me that's a huge problem as a voter in North Carolina. - Could they have asked before the 90 days, though? - Sure. - And I would say to counter sorta what Nick is saying here, we can't take this one case out of the broader conversation that we've been hearing from Republicans for about a decade now, which is questioning whether dead people are voting, whether undocumented people are voting. There's no evidence that these things are major issues. So, unless you're looking in the bottom of the barrel on the internet, in which case we're making policy based off things scrawled on bathroom stalls at this point then. So, you know, this is a repetitive myth that's been debunked over and over again. And I think it's interesting that after the 2020 election, it's interesting that there've been so many statements out there about suggesting that that election was fraudulent. And I don't think we can take this lawsuit out of that context, it's not happening in a bathroom. - Well, both parties are doing this. In 2016, the Russians made Trump President. In 2020, Lord knows, Brooke, who made Biden. - But don't say Russians were voting. - They're waging, well- - No, but they claimed that Russians through, what? $200,000 worth of ads on Facebook? - I'm not getting into all that, but I'm saying both parties do. Georgia, the gubernatorial race. Brooke, what do we make of all this? Cleaning up the voter rolls. But they didn't ask a year ago. They wait 'til right before early voting to ask for a federal lawsuit to require a purge now. - Well, before I answer that, I think it's good to point out, though, even if there aren't as many actual cases of voter fraud that don't rise to the level of maybe nationwide issues, because of that Elon poll we just cited, 48% of voters, many, many people just do not necessarily feel comfortable with the security of our elections. Perception is reality in a lot of cases and people need to be able to feel comfortable that their elections are secure and there's integrity. And, so, just when it comes to the back and forth between both sides, you cited 2016 and 2020, I think as just even a communications person, it would seem to me that it would be our Board of Elections to secure this, insure it up. And actually back in January of this year, there was a plaintiff that had filed the original lawsuit, named Carol Snow, who is a voter in North Carolina, who did ask the Board of Elections to contact all of those voters and let them know what had actually happened, and they did not do so. - Alright, well, political endorsements are now rolling out and a big one got some attention this week. Former State Auditor, Beth Wood, who's a Democrat, endorsed Republican, Dave Boliek, in the State Auditor's race. Beth Wood resigned as State Auditor in 2023 while under investigation for how she allegedly used her state vehicle, and there was a hit and run incident that got her in the headlines, as well, and launched another investigation. But she says her endorsement is not about party politics. Governor Roy Cooper did not accept her recommendation to appoint her Chief Deputy in a temporary role, Dawn, he appointed former Wake County Commission Chairwoman, Jessica Holmes, who then announced she's going to run for the office as the officially elected State Auditor. This is Democrats versus Democrats, or is it? - Yeah, and I mean also Republicans this year, Catherine Truett, the incumbent Republican state superintendent, said she wouldn't endorse Michele Morrow, who was the surprise upset in that primary. So it's Republican versus Republican. And then with Wood and Holmes, it's interesting because before all this came out with Beth Wood, with the hit and run, she had a lot of bipartisan support. And even when that, you know, scandal first started, Republicans supported her, not just Democrats, 'cause she's a Democrat, and they liked her work as an auditor. So there's that backdrop, but then also what she did and that she had to resign. So her opinion is, you know, it's a little muddied on how much of it was maybe a different Democrat who suddenly said, "I don't like this incumbent," and Bullock is like pretty, from some of his, what he said is rhetoric. He doesn't seem to be a moderate, you know, Republican even, at least with his campaigning. And so Wood said Holmes basically wasn't doing it, do a good job that she was appointed for political demographic reasons, and that it was just to set her up for the election, instead of finishing out her term. But I don't know if Governor Cooper would've listened to Beth Wood's suggestion concerning how she left the office. - Well, Nick, legislators do this all the time. They resign in July, and lo and behold, the person they want in the office permanently gets appointed so they can move into their office early. What do you make of the Beth Woods endorsement, the way it's all unfolded, and Ms. Woods rhetoric against Jessica Holmes? - I think there's a couple of interesting things to note about it. The state auditor, why they are a partisan position. You will see an R and D for that position. They are somebody that does not find themselves favorably from both parties. As the state auditor, you are one of the very few council of state. You might argue, the only council of state position where you truly are digging into if it's a Republican legislature, what they're doing. If it's Democrats running some department, you're digging into that. And that's what makes the state auditor position so unique. Yes, they run as partisans on a ballot with an R or a D, but at the end of the day, they need to leave that at the door. You keep your principles. You keep the things that you stand on. You leave that at the door and do the job, which most of the time makes you a very unpopular person in the General Assembly and other parts of government. With respect, but because you're constantly looking at everybody with a magnifying glass. - Billy, the Auditor's position when it's on a ballot, it's not way down the ballot. It's an important race. Everyone knows that, but why would this percolate to state level? Was it because she went to Raleigh Media and made it statewide? Or is there some importance to having a former or a Democrat launch a tirade against the Democratic nominee, and Buck Governor Cooper who's shining like gold right now? - You know, political turmoil within a party is interesting. I don't care what the party is, I don't care where people are gonna read that story, they're gonna think it's interesting. I think that it is truly an inherently awkward elected office, as Nick was alluding to, because it is a partisan race, but you have to be independent in what you do in that office. I rarely have sympathy for politicians, to be honest, but I have sympathy for people who have to run for this position, try to be apolitical and yet be political in order to win races. I will say, I think the thing that stuck out to me, and I don't know Beth Wood, and I don't know Jessica Holmes that well, but I think we need to say out loud, it was a little bit concerning to hear Ms. Wood talk about Ms. Holmes as if she was someone who got the position because she was a Black woman. And I think that this type of rhetoric, we've seen this all over the place. Everyone's talking about DEI hires right now. It's really directed at people of color, and especially black women. So, you know, Ms. Holmes has a history of leadership in this state. So I don't know, that part was concerning. - Was that said explicitly though, or was it implied in rhetoric, the way you, what you heard Ms. Woods say? - Explicitly, yeah. - Brooke, what do you make of the auditor's race? It's an every, so many interesting races, you know, but the auditor now all of a sudden kind of rises up there right beside board of, not board of education, superintendent. - Yeah. - It's a tempest in the teapot, but it's interesting. - Well, it's interesting because, I would say, back in the day, people weren't as excited about that topic and that office, perhaps. But these days, you know, folks get really excited about politics, as we all well know. You just spend any time on social media, they get worked up. And so I do think there is a unique role in the auditor's office that makes it more broadly exciting, though, just because they do have to operate in some ways, like a prosecutor, they have to go after friends and those that are their foes, and it doesn't matter. They have to treat them with impartiality, and make sure that they are taking care of North Carolinians and doing the job that North Carolinians put them in office to do, which is to keep integrity within these departments. And so it's not a job that I would envy whatsoever, but I do think North Carolinians actually find it fascinating and of note, because that's their person that needs to go and represent them and their hard earned tax dollars, and make sure that they're being used properly. - Now the, yeah, go ahead. - I was gonna say, it's also important to note that with these council of state positions, you're leading a state agency. - I mean the LG's office are obviously small on the Governor's staff. But the Auditor has a lot of state employees. The Superintendent Public Instruction has a lot of state employees. So you're supposed to be an example to all of these people that you're the boss of if you win. - Why did the Democrats not ignore this? I saw Morgan Jackson who's running Stein's campaign, a lot of high powered king and queen makers in this state rally to Jessica Holmes' defense when they could have said nothing. Was Wood's endorsement powerful? Did it hurt Jessica Holmes? Did it help Dave Boliek in your opinion? Nick, I won't ask for a report of that. I'll ask you that as an analyst. - I think it absolutely helps Dave Boliek and back to what Brooke was just saying, folks find themselves very frustrated when they have to interface with the government. I mean, have you seen some of the pictures at DMV lines across the state of North Carolina? You've had offices that are temporarily closed for weeks or license plates, agencies closed for months at a time. - [Kelly] That's an easy one though. - But it's something that folks are very frustrated with and they want some, who can really handle that. It's somebody like the State Auditor and somebody like Dave Boliek, who I've heard out on the campaign trail, has done a really good job messaging that to voters. - So you think an auditor is gonna do a book report on DMV shortcomings and it's gonna change the behavior of the employees, anybody in that organization, the way it's structured? - I think if somebody could do it, that's where it starts. Now, will something actually be done? I'm not gonna try and forecast that. Could it be done and can the tip of the spear be the State Auditor's office? 100%, yes, absolutely. And I think Dave Boliek has made it clear that's something that he says he wants to do day one. - Should Democrats have even said anything about Beth Wood's endorsement? - Certainly. I think because it got so much attention, I think it would be strange if they didn't react to it at all. - All right, well, WRAL's Laura Leslie, who I saw this week, and she's been reporting on what many people have been discussing about, and we have on this show. It's Roy Cooper's future, Billy. He was a finalist for vice president before it leaked, Dawn, that he never really applied to be vetted. He introduced Kamala Harris at the Democratic National Convention because she asked him to is what he says. He's focused only on his last four months as governor. But as a lamed duck governor, we're not gonna listen to him on this show. We're gonna find out what is he up to or what do we think he's up to because that's what we do, Billy. What's in Governor Cooper's future? He can be a rainmaker as a lobbyist. He can be a Senate candidate. He could be in a cabinet. - I can't imagine he's done with politics. That's just, you know, it's hard to imagine and especially enjoying the kind of popularity that he has as a governor. I could see him running for a Senate race. I have no idea. I have no idea how he makes these choices but he has emerged as a guy who speaks in a kind of humble like dad sort of way. I've heard him described like that, like Governor Dad, but is a very canny political strategist and very smart about his choices. And so, it would be surprising to me if this was it for Governor Cooper and seeing him up there at the DNC, I think it almost answers that question right out. - Brooke, Roy Cooper is what? What could he be to serve this state going forward? He knows and his team knows, but you know, they're not gonna tell us. - Right, well, I mean one of the forecast is potentially running for Senate, but another is he was at the DNC. He does have tight connections there in Washington. Does he get appointed to the Harris administration if she assumes the presidency? I think that's another potential. He's a North Carolina boy. So would he want that sort of position? That's another question, I don't know. - As a candidate, would he have to run to the middle? You know, 'cause when you get to the presidential level, you go to the right, you come to the middle left, comes back to the middle. How far would Roy Cooper have to really adjust to take on, I think it would be Thom Tillis in this case? - Yeah, well he is very politically calculating. That is how he has been able to, I would say, even keep such high approval ratings, even among Republicans across the state. So even though I would say policy-wise, he does lean, very progressive when it comes to the optics of how he operates in his policy positions. Those certainly seem more middle of the road, even if they're not. - I think Brooke's right, exactly. Cooper is so cautious. I don't think he's decided yet, 'cause he doesn't know exactly what does he think he's gonna win for US Senate. He's not gonna announce he wants that for sure or if he doesn't think he's gonna win. If Harris becomes president and he gets the cabinet pick, that changes things. But he's just so cautious and Morgan Jackson, who's been on the show as a key advisor is as well. So he's not gonna say anything until he knows it's gonna be successful for him. - The undefeated streak could go on the line if he runs against Thom Tillis. - That's true. - Last word to you, Nick. I got a minute in the show. - I'll say this. Democrats nationwide need to take a look at Roy Cooper and look at the success that he's had here in a state that is arguably controlled by Republicans, from the General Assembly to the majority of Council of State, and really take some lines out of that if they wanna be successful in other elections. He's done a masterful job here in North Carolina, despite his policies. - Is he gonna step out of the public limelight or just take a little break and we'll see him again- - Probably, I would assume a little break. I think, as Billy was mentioning, being at the DNC and introducing the next president for Democrats, that's a tough thing to then just disappear from. - He could go work at Cook Out. - I'm sure he could, and serve milkshakes. And we were talking about off set. Well, thank you so much for being a great week. It's political season. We'll have tons to talk about. We'll have you all on soon. Thank you so much. More importantly, thank you folks for watching "State Lines". Email your thoughts and opinions to statelines@pbsnc.org. We'll read every email. I'm Kelly McCullen. Thank you so much for watching. See you next time. 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