what's going on everyone welcome back to the
show so we have some post debate polls that have just come in and we're going to talk a
little bit about them and I'm going to show you that Harris actually got a bump from the
debate and I anticipated this I talked about the fact that I think Harris did win the debate
and so we're going to take a look at the polls that are showing this bounce and then also there's
one poll now this could be an outlier but there's one poll that's actually showing that Trump got
a bump so that's what we're going to focus on in this video but first off if you guys can do me a
favor please like the video and if you find this video valuable and you like to see more content
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let's get right over and I'm going to talk a little bit about the national polling now remember
when it comes to National polling when it comes to polling in general this is a snapshot this is the
way things are today they could change tomorrow they can change in a week they could change
in a month but right now this is what we're seeing and so when we're looking at some of the
latest polling uh National polling we have and we'll just go through I'll show you the actual
numbers in a second but I want to take a look at the actual polls first I want to zoom in as close
as I can so you guys will be able to see what I'm looking at here but we have the dates that we're
looking at so we know the debate was on the 10th so realistically the best polls that are going to
come out are going to be between between what 911 and 912 911 912 uh 910 okay we can look at that
poll uh to 911 and this one here this rasm poll was from 95 to 911 so they're doing polling every
day so some of the polling was done prior to the debate and then some was done after the debate
so you can see where that could get we're we're probably not going to get a really good sample of
post debate you know the post debate results so when it comes to this rasm poll I'm not going to
really look at this one right now when it comes to the New York Post poll 910 realistically you're
not going to have the best results when it comes to this morning console poll I do want to look
at that one because that one was done on 9911 so it was done the day after the debate it was
fresh in everybody's mind and I think that you know is a is a good indicator of you know that
that would be a good poll there because people just watched it and they have opinions about it
and they were asked questions about the debate so we'll go ahead and keep that one in and then the
uh Reuters ipsus poll here uh we have from 911 to 912 and so they took two days and they actually
pulled people okay so we want to look at what did we say this one and this one so the top two
looking at this first off the ipsus poll is is, 145 registered voters and the morning console
poll is 3,37 likely voters now likely voters are that's a better sample size I don't really
even know how they calculate the likely voter uh or register voters I guess they ask them are you
do you vote are you likely to vote and most you know people will say yes or or what have you so
that's where they're getting a likely voter from now we have a margin of error of 3% and that's
in both of the polls when we're looking at the results we have uh let's look at the top one first
so that's the reuter's ipsis poll 47 for Harris 42 for Trump okay so you see that's what five yeah
that's five points there and that is outside of the margin of error so you see that Harris uh
did get a bump from the debate now when we're looking at the morning console poll we have Harris
at 50 and Trump at 45 once again that's 5 Points that's outside of the margin of error so this
is good news when it comes to Harris she has two of the latest polls after the debate and they're
both showing her plus five okay so we'll have to see if that continues but that's good news for her
right now now let's go ahead I want to take a look uh also we can take a look here just to see
the pattern and so Harris is in blue Trump is in red and you see her pattern she's she was
going up going up she had a nice Gap here and then it closed in on her a little bit here and
now we're at this point here where you have um the 48.5% to Trump's 47% that is the national
polling okay averaging all the polls nationally this is real clear politics that we're using by
the way okay now I want to take a look because it's not all good news for Harris so I do want
to take a look at first let's take a look at Michigan and then we're going to come back and
I want to take a look at 538 because I also looked at their polling and uh we'll we'll we'll
take a quick look at that and then we'll look a little more detail when it comes to the morning
console poll I have a a graph to show you guys that really illustrates pre-debate and then post
debate okay so when it comes to Michigan and this is what's interesting when we're looking
at polling this is the only State polling Battleground State polling that that we we have so
far Insider Advantage poll we have this was done on 911 and 9912 so two days after the debate and
you had 800 likely voters the margin of err here though 3.7% and we had Harris at 48 and Trump at
49 so Trump actually did better in this polling he's showing a plus one this was after the debate
okay so and this is just one state this is just Michigan Harris is still ahead in Michigan you
see here so when you average all the polling she's still plus 0.9 but now she is less than 1% she
was over 1% uh just uh just a couple of days ago so we just did a video about that we talked about
that but she still leads in Michigan and she has to win Michigan so it is very important for us to
watch Michigan and see if we see some more polls come out in favor of trump uh post post debate
okay now I want to take a look let's look take a look at 538 really quickly here so 538 their
National polling is a little bit different it's showing a lot larger lead for Harris Harris is at
plus 2.8% so she right now is at 47.1% Trump is at 44.3% now looking at some of the latest polling
and we'll do the same thing here we'll move over and look at the dates because that is what's
I think is the most important and actually they're the same polls here so uh we do have
a ugu poll but that was done on the day of the debate and then the day after so really not
the best information that we'll get from that because it's going to be half of it will be
before the debate and then half will be after uh September 11th through 12th that was the
ipsis poll we already looked at that one uh we already looked at that one as well actually
yeah they're they're the same so we we know we know the results of that the results was it was
five so we have a plus five here and a plus five here and so that didn't change anything okay I
want to I want to go down though and I do want to look at this graph that shows us and this is
the morning console poll okay so it says Harris extends lead over Trump after first presidential
debate and so realistically she increased her lead by one point but the momentum thing again it's
moving in the right direction this is right after the debate will we see her continue to move up and
Trump continue to move down that's the question so Harris pre-debate 49 Trump pre- debate 46 Harris
debate day 50 Trump debate day 46 and then you see what happens here post debate Harris stays the
same at 50% and Trump drops to 45 and so will Trump continue to drop that is the question Will
trump continue to drop and Will Harris actually bump up a little bit more so my thoughts as time
moves on I think we're going to see Harris maybe next week and I was saying that next week we'll
probably see uh some some better polls come out because when it comes down to it it's still fresh
right now and I think that's good but I think a little bit of time in between we're going to see
better numbers uh when it comes to more right now people like I said people have their opinions some
people think Trump won people like me think Harris did a much better job but um next week I think
when things kind of settle down we'll have some better polling coming out and so we'll have to see
what that polling looks like but as of right now Harris does you know the latest polling Harris
is showing a a slight bump and that's good and so that's the latest polling post debate now I
want I do want to take a look at our electoral map I like to look at this just to kind of
give you guys an idea of what's going on and what's at stake and what's you know what are the
important states that we're looking at here and so when we're looking at the electoral map the main
thing that we need to focus on is the fact that Harris has a Pathway to Victory and Trump has
a Pathway to Victory Harris's pathway is very simple Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania she's
doing she's doing well in all those States okay and Pennsylvania it's a tossup but she came
from behind to make it a tossup make it a tie right now so uh she had some work to do to get
there she's there now will she continue to rise we'll have to see when it comes to Michigan you
saw the latest polling from Real Clear Politics showing her ahead she's not ahead by a point
anymore so she is dropping just a little bit but she is still ahead in Michigan and then when it
comes to Wisconsin she's leading in Wisconsin so looking at these three states the blue wall she
would have 270 you only need 270 to win and that would give her the victory now what Trump needs
to do to win is he needs to win Georgia North Carolina and Pennsylvania now I just did a
video two days ago and I was talking about all three of these states and when it comes down
to it Pennsylvania as I just stated it's a dead heat it's a tie right now so that is a tossup
when it comes to North Carolina Harris in some polling is showing Harris ahead and when you
look at 538 it's showing Harris ahead so she has a slight advantage in North Carolina when
it comes to Georgia Trump is ahead but he has a slight slight lead uh in Georgia so these three
states are they're going to be very very close and they're crucial for Trump he has to win these
three states if he wants to win the presidency and the reason that I'm saying that is even if even
if he's even if he's able to win Nevada in Arizona he's still going to need to win Pennsylvania in
order to win and so he can do all this work when Georgia win North Carolina when Nevada wi Arizona
and he's still going to need to win Pennsylvania and right now we're excluding Wisconsin and
Michigan because Harris is doing the best in those those two states so if he was able to pull
off Wisconsin that would change things if he's able to pull off Michigan that would change things
but right now where he's strong is in Arizona and you could say Georgia those are probably his two
strongest States but the rest of the map Harris is is leading in Nevada Harris has a slight lead
in Nevada in North Carolina like I said according to 538 Harris has a slight lead in North Carolina
and so the map really looks like this if you want to if you want to take a look and then you have
the tossup as as Pennsylvania and then Georgia we can say Georgia goes to Trump but that would
still give Harris 273 and she would win and so Trump has a heel to climb and I don't think he did
himself any favors in the debate and I think that we're I don't know if they're going to do another
debate I know Trump said that he doesn't want to do another debate I don't know why he would say
that but he's saying he doesn't want to do another debate usually when you when you lose and you you
know you have a bad performance and and you know I don't care what Trump's saying even people that
are on his side Republicans Republican strategists are saying look he did not win the debate he did
not do a good job and so even if he's saying well I got 92% in this poll and this poll and that poll
all these online polls which I can run an online poll right now and you know the results aren't
it's just people that are coming on and they happen to see the poll so I don't know where these
people are coming from I don't know if they're all Republican or if they're all Democrats or I don't
know that and so when you're doing these online polls it's not like you're calling someone and
you're talking to them and you're asking them their political affiliation you're asking them
are they likely to vote register vote all that stuff it's not like that it's just anybody on
the internet that is participating in these these polls and a lot of those polls that he was
talking about they were online polls and so he has indicated I think he put it on true social
that he is not planning to do another debate and Harris right after the debate haris said that she
wants to do another debate and so I don't know I I think we're probably not going to see another
debate just because the if Harris because Harris won so if she's smart there's no reason to do
another debate but I think she wanted to get out in front of the story by saying yes I'm open
to another debate and see what Trump was going to say and I think she probably already knew that
Trump was probably not going to want to do another debate but um I don't I don't I don't understand
that strategy and a lot of situations I look at the the Trump campaign and and I have a lot of
criticism when it comes to how they're running their campaign because they're not putting money
in some of the right places in my opinion and they're not doing things to actually win I mean it
almost makes me think that they want to lose and then claim that it was you know that the election
was was RI rigged and all this stuff I mean that's kind of what I'm seeing because they're not doing
the things that they need to do to win uh in my opinion so we'll have to see what happens um
I think right now Harris is probably going to see better numbers next week when it comes to
some of the polling and remember like I said this is a snapshot okay this is the way people
feel today and next week when we start looking at the polls it's going to be the way people feel
next week that can change and we have I mean we do have if you want to look at people that are
are predicting who's going to win go over to uh Professor Alan lickman site or his YouTube channel
he talks about it a lot and he says that Harris is going to win now I was just watching a live stream
yesterday Mr beat not Mr Beast but Mr beat he is a he was a teacher I think he was an economics
teacher he had his prediction and he's basing it on economics and his prediction was Harris is
going to win so you have people that are making predictions and then you also have polls that
are going out I like to look at everything okay polls are just like we were saying as a snapshot
but it does give you an idea of how people feel how people are feeling and that's what I like to
talk about just what's going on how people are feeling about the election some of these polls
they have some really good detailed information where they're asking people about the economy and
they're asking people about crime and immigration and all this stuff and so that's good I I want to
know how people feel about these different issues and so that's why I think polling is interesting
but it is not something that you should just look at polling and say this is it this is how it's
going to go this is how the election is going to play out that's not what what I'm saying but
it is interesting to kind of see the momentum and see where people are are going and maybe talk
have some dialogue about some of the different uh things that are going on when it comes to our
election so that's all I have for this video but I want to know what you guys think about this so
let me know in the comments below if you like this video please give me a thumbs up please subscribe
for more and I'll talk to you in the next one bye