hello everyone and welcome back to another video with on point politics and today we're going to be looking at my State polling averages and why they're going to be the most accurate polling averages of this cycle make sure to hit the like button and to subscribe if you want more content just like this and so right now according to my polling averages Donald Trump is getting 330 electral College votes to Harris's 208 Electoral College votes and essentially they are a part of the model that I have which I use to predict the election so I do not have 330 as the result but they are a factor in my model and I want them to be as accurate as possible and so to back test this what I did is I essentially did every single state except Main in New Hampshire I am currently very tired so I have not done them yet but we see that I've gone back to every single state and what I've done is I've essentially plugged in all of the polling data into the averages from October 2nd to November 2nd of 2020 for all of the states that I have done those include the of Nevada Arizona New Mexico Texas Virginia North Carolina Georgia Florida Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania when I do that Donald Trump is gaining in every single state and is absolutely killing it across the board I mean in 2020 this is what the polling map looks like it is basically almost perfect some of the states are spot on Nevada is to the right of where it's supposed to be that's because a lot of the polling data in Nevada tends to oversample Republicans but I was still managed to able to make it a a blue State on the map Arizona Georgia Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin or all lean blue Minnesota New Mexico Virginia all likely blue States acur representation North Carolina actually came out perfectly to Trump plus 1.3 Florida Trump plus 2.7 and Texas plus 5.8 so a lot of the polling averages I weighed them to the 2020 aggregate inputed all the data and so if I would have gotten all of the electorates correct this would have been the result I would have gotten from the Battleground polling that you see and Donald Trump would have lost the election and I would have been able to predict every single state correctly with my polling average some of the deep blue states don't really have a lot of polling in them either and they're still able to get them somewhat accurate I mean the only one here that's like a bus off is New Mexico and Virginia New Mexico overestimates Biden by almost five I think and Virginia underestimates him by five so some of them are a little bit wonky but the other ones which include Nevada Arizona Texas Florida Georgia North Carolina Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin Minnesota are basically almost dead on I mean you have for example Nevada 0.7 I mean Biden went it by 2.4 that's less than two points off you know Arizona Biden plus 2 .6 you know he W it by 0.3 2.3 percentage Point Miss Texas plus 5.8 for Trump I mean that was pretty accurate Trump won by 5.6 essentially a slight overestimation of Donald Trump Virginia Biden plus 5.6 he ended up winning it by 10.1 so again that one's a little bit iffy North Carolina Trump plus 1.3 again perfect margin right there North car uh Georgia Biden plus 1.3 you would have had 0.24 Florida plus Trump to 2.7 you would have had Trump plus 3.4 you know Minnesota Biden plus 8.1 you would have had Minnesota plus 7.1 as the final result Wisconsin Biden plus 2.5 he would have ended up winning by 0.6 so a 1.4 percentage Point Miss to the left looking at Michigan 3.6 for Biden you know 2.8 for Biden was the real result and Pennsylvania plus 1.2 for Biden and here comes out of piden plus 2.1 so all the states except Virginia and New Mexico due to the lack of polling because there aren't a lot of viable polls to plug into the average that have the party ID cross tabs available every single state essentially is correct and I think that's fairly fascinating and now using the same methodology in the same States including you know New Hampshire as well as Maine they do go lean Republican or well at least main goes blue and New Hampshire goes red but what's quite interesting is if I were to get the 2020 polling averages and apply a marginal error you know to find the margin of error for all of those pollsters if I apply those to my current 2024 election map polling averages this is the map I get I get Donald Trump with 322 Electoral College votes to Harris's 216 Virginia would go likely Democrat Minnesota would be very competitive New Mexico would go red Nevada would be surprisingly close and Minnesota or excuse me Michigan would be kind of in the LAN column as well as New Hampshire so it's pretty fascinating to see this kind of unfold where Donald Trump is winning pretty handedly in a in my polling data right now and the polling data back then in 2020 if you would have plugged it in would have been basically spot on and I would have been able to predict the Electoral College with 100% accuracy and so I wanted to make this quick video so you guys could see that there is some validity to what I'm actually doing right now when it comes to this poll data stuff you know looking at the difference of the maps we can see here Joe Biden you know 306 Trump 230 330 essentially and he's performing a lot better this average for the national level I had Biden plus 5.3 which kind of would have made sense and looking here Donald Trump right now is winning the popular vote by three uh 2.3% right now in the polling average so you look at the difference between the national environments and you see quite a bit of a shift to the right as of right now and so if you guys did enjoy this video make sure to hit the like button and subscribe to the channel make sure to follow me on X as well as go to OnPoint politics.com if you want to stay updated with the model forecast as well as the national average here when we readjust everything for the party ID and when we look at you know a beted online we do have sporting odds or SP Bo betting odds for you know the presidential election we also have them for the margins of the different states or whether or not each State's going to go or not we also have Biden this is kind of interesting a Biden's approval rating uh during a certain time presidential debate odds we also have TV debates uh debate winner Mark cubin Elon mus that's interesting that would be kind of cool I wonder if that's going to happen uh looking at you know some of these margins for you know the Senate races as well those are also Incorporated too so again very very interesting stuff as of right now so make sure to go ahead and hit the like button and to subscribe if you want more content just like this and I will see you guys in the next video